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Russian Federation40186 Posts
On October 18 2023 06:43 GreenHorizons wrote:
IDF is going to need something better than the Shaggy defense to be taken seriously. It does preclude them from plausibly going with the "we were targeting Hamas" line later though.
Yeah, the video of a rocket launch from Gaza with big boom on the ground happening 10 seconds later that was actually geolocated to fit, is no Shaggy defence. It's "beyond obvious" defence. And you won't accuse me of pretending to defend IDF here, my previous comment is still up.
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There is video evidence of rockets from Gaza landing short in Gaza itself on multiple occations in the past. Given Israel makes phone calls and drops roof knockers, it's likely that a lot of the civilian casualties in this and other conflicts are misfired rockets made by amateurs from water piping and household chemicals.
This hospital hit seems more consistent with the PIJ rocket theory
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On October 18 2023 07:23 lolfail9001 wrote:
Yeah, the video of a rocket launch from Gaza with big boom on the ground happening 10 seconds later that was actually geolocated to fit, is no Shaggy defence. It's "beyond obvious" defence. And you won't accuse me of pretending to defend IDF here, my previous comment is still up. From my impressions so far - GH usually doesn't care about truth that much, they care about the narrative and their own "truth", so don't bother.
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On October 18 2023 07:39 ZeroByte13 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2023 07:23 lolfail9001 wrote:
Yeah, the video of a rocket launch from Gaza with big boom on the ground happening 10 seconds later that was actually geolocated to fit, is no Shaggy defence. It's "beyond obvious" defence. And you won't accuse me of pretending to defend IDF here, my previous comment is still up. From my impressions so far - GH usually doesn't care about truth that much, they care about the narrative and their own "truth", so don't bother.
Don't worry Zerobyte we already had an ecosystem of how people react to each other before you started to "just ask questions".
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Do any of you military specification nerds know how this whole missile interception stuff works? It appears the only scenario in which Israel could potentially be blamed for this is if they intercepted the missile and the missile being intercepted led to the missile hitting the hospital? But I think we don't actually even know if the missile was intercepted yet? I dunno how this stuff works.
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On October 18 2023 07:56 Nebuchad wrote:
Don't worry Zerobyte we already had an ecosystem of how people react to each other before you started to "just ask questions". Oh I do not worry, don't you worry about this.
I agree, it's not like they would not see by themselves which people here are not worth arguing with as they will never change their position regardless of any evidence or arguments. *wink-wink*
But sometimes a shortcut can be useful.
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On October 18 2023 08:02 ZeroByte13 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2023 07:56 Nebuchad wrote:
Don't worry Zerobyte we already had an ecosystem of how people react to each other before you started to "just ask questions". Oh I do not worry, don't you worry about this. I agree, it's not like they would not see by themselves which people here are not worth arguing with as they will never change their position regardless of any evidence or arguments. *wink-wink* But sometimes a shortcut can be useful.
Just my 2 cents but I think people would benefit from viewing the goal of this community as to understand each others thoughts rather than change each other's minds. Sometimes we will never agree, but it doesn't mean understanding each other isn't still a worthwhile pursuit.
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On October 18 2023 08:09 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2023 08:02 ZeroByte13 wrote:On October 18 2023 07:56 Nebuchad wrote:
Don't worry Zerobyte we already had an ecosystem of how people react to each other before you started to "just ask questions". Oh I do not worry, don't you worry about this. I agree, it's not like they would not see by themselves which people here are not worth arguing with as they will never change their position regardless of any evidence or arguments. *wink-wink* But sometimes a shortcut can be useful. Just my 2 cents but I think people would benefit from viewing the goal of this community as to understand each others thoughts rather than change each other's minds. Sometimes we will never agree, but it doesn't mean understanding each other isn't still a worthwhile pursuit.
I would second that. I may not agree with Mohdoo on this particular topic but from what I remember in the US thread he always struck me as an overall cool and decent person.
Also I'm a bit drunk so I'll just go to bed now, cheers.
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On October 18 2023 08:09 Mohdoo wrote:
Just my 2 cents but I think people would benefit from viewing the goal of this community as to understand each others thoughts rather than change each other's minds. Sometimes we will never agree, but it doesn't mean understanding each other isn't still a worthwhile pursuit. Yeah, of course, you're correct in general.
I was talking mostly about situations like with this hospital tragedy - some people will never agree it was done by X side even if there's overwhelming evidence it was done by X side. It's their right but this doesn't lead to productive discussions/arguments.
Now, I am not saying this is the case with the hospital strike/explosion - we don't have enough evidence yet.
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Just so we're clear what we're talking about, this is the clearest footage of the strike on the hospital I've seen.
Is it really that strange to be skeptical that was the leftovers of a misfired rocket?
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The strange part is defaulting on the idf being responsible and needing evidence to believe otherwise.
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On October 18 2023 09:44 Sermokala wrote:
The strange part is defaulting on the idf being responsible and needing evidence to believe otherwise.
In my eyes it comes down to:
1) Hamas has openly encouraged their inhabitants/members to sacrifice their lives in any way possible towards the goal of killing all Jews.
2) Hamas considers it ethical to use hospitals as missile launch sites because even if the hospital gets bombed, the optics harm Israel badly and the people who die go to heaven anyway since it was all in pursuit of killing Jews
3) Israel has made a non-zero effort to prevent civilian casualties, though we of course know they don't always let Hamas's tactic of using human shields prevent their objectives from being achieved
So if we know Hamas encourages civilian casualties in pursuit of their goal of killing all Jews, would that not mean we actually have more reason to assume Hamas would do this? Wouldn't we even have more reason to believe Hamas would do this *intentionally* compared to Israel?
Israel appears to understand sufficient international pressure will harm their goals and that they need to be as humane as possible if nothing else for that reason. Even if we assume they are soulless, they are 100% aware they need some level of optics mitigation/consideration. Bombing a hospital like this would need to be a HUGE value target to justify the optics of this. Especially since this entire situation is being live streamed from like 100 different angles.
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On October 18 2023 09:44 Sermokala wrote:
The strange part is defaulting on the idf being responsible and needing evidence to believe otherwise.
The same IDF that bombed a beach full of families a few years ago?
Its not that strange.
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On October 18 2023 09:59 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2023 09:44 Sermokala wrote:
The strange part is defaulting on the idf being responsible and needing evidence to believe otherwise. In my eyes it comes down to: 1) Hamas has openly encouraged their inhabitants/members to sacrifice their lives in any way possible towards the goal of killing all Jews. 2) Hamas considers it ethical to use hospitals as missile launch sites because even if the hospital gets bombed, the optics harm Israel badly and the people who die go to heaven anyway since it was all in pursuit of killing Jews 3) Israel has made a non-zero effort to prevent civilian casualties, though we of course know they don't always let Hamas's tactic of using human shields prevent their objectives from being achieved So if we know Hamas encourages civilian casualties in pursuit of their goal of killing all Jews, would that not mean we actually have more reason to assume Hamas would do this? Wouldn't we even have more reason to believe Hamas would do this *intentionally* compared to Israel? Israel appears to understand sufficient international pressure will harm their goals and that they need to be as humane as possible if nothing else for that reason. Even if we assume they are soulless, they are 100% aware they need some level of optics mitigation/consideration. Bombing a hospital like this would need to be a HUGE value target to justify the optics of this. Especially since this entire situation is being live streamed from like 100 different angles.
Inside job? You’re going with that?
Seems fine to reserve judgment for a few hours. One assumes an army of OSINT nerds are pouring over every scrap of evidence as we speak, and they usually seem good at what they do. That said, initial impression is that this would be a *crazy* amount of damage for a stray Hamas rocket to do. The intentionally targeted ones don’t seem to do anywhere near this much damage. Not impossible – maybe there was some kind of secondary explosion? Maybe the hospital was stockpiling fuel for a generator? – but it doesn’t seem crazy to suspect the IDF when they’ve already been pretty indiscriminately bombing the whole territory and this is much more consistent with the amount of damage IDF bombing would typically do to a building. So far the evidence against that is… what? The IDF denying it? Have they offered evidence?
Or, you know, you can just assume George Bush helped Hamas stage an inside job explosion. You do you!
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On October 18 2023 10:43 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2023 09:59 Mohdoo wrote:On October 18 2023 09:44 Sermokala wrote:
The strange part is defaulting on the idf being responsible and needing evidence to believe otherwise. In my eyes it comes down to: 1) Hamas has openly encouraged their inhabitants/members to sacrifice their lives in any way possible towards the goal of killing all Jews. 2) Hamas considers it ethical to use hospitals as missile launch sites because even if the hospital gets bombed, the optics harm Israel badly and the people who die go to heaven anyway since it was all in pursuit of killing Jews 3) Israel has made a non-zero effort to prevent civilian casualties, though we of course know they don't always let Hamas's tactic of using human shields prevent their objectives from being achieved So if we know Hamas encourages civilian casualties in pursuit of their goal of killing all Jews, would that not mean we actually have more reason to assume Hamas would do this? Wouldn't we even have more reason to believe Hamas would do this *intentionally* compared to Israel? Israel appears to understand sufficient international pressure will harm their goals and that they need to be as humane as possible if nothing else for that reason. Even if we assume they are soulless, they are 100% aware they need some level of optics mitigation/consideration. Bombing a hospital like this would need to be a HUGE value target to justify the optics of this. Especially since this entire situation is being live streamed from like 100 different angles. Inside job? You’re going with that?
No, I think the more likely solution is an error on the part of Hamas. I don't think it was intentional. But I am pointing out that "civilian casualties in pursuit of killing more Jews" is openly endorsed within Hamas.
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On October 18 2023 10:49 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2023 10:43 ChristianS wrote:On October 18 2023 09:59 Mohdoo wrote:On October 18 2023 09:44 Sermokala wrote:
The strange part is defaulting on the idf being responsible and needing evidence to believe otherwise. In my eyes it comes down to: 1) Hamas has openly encouraged their inhabitants/members to sacrifice their lives in any way possible towards the goal of killing all Jews. 2) Hamas considers it ethical to use hospitals as missile launch sites because even if the hospital gets bombed, the optics harm Israel badly and the people who die go to heaven anyway since it was all in pursuit of killing Jews 3) Israel has made a non-zero effort to prevent civilian casualties, though we of course know they don't always let Hamas's tactic of using human shields prevent their objectives from being achieved So if we know Hamas encourages civilian casualties in pursuit of their goal of killing all Jews, would that not mean we actually have more reason to assume Hamas would do this? Wouldn't we even have more reason to believe Hamas would do this *intentionally* compared to Israel? Israel appears to understand sufficient international pressure will harm their goals and that they need to be as humane as possible if nothing else for that reason. Even if we assume they are soulless, they are 100% aware they need some level of optics mitigation/consideration. Bombing a hospital like this would need to be a HUGE value target to justify the optics of this. Especially since this entire situation is being live streamed from like 100 different angles. Inside job? You’re going with that? No, I think the more likely solution is an error on the part of Hamas. I don't think it was intentional. But I am pointing out that "civilian casualties in pursuit of killing more Jews" is openly endorsed within Hamas.
This is such bad faith bullshit. First you’re JAQing off about whether Hamas might have done it intentionally, then denying it but still bringing up that they’re in favor of “civilian casualties” (not Palestinian casualties, last I checked). Didn’t you just get done saying you thought it was unintentional? Then what’s that got to do with it anyway? Meanwhile if it is unintentional you haven’t even given a reason you think it’s more likely a Hamas mistake than an IDF one!
It was only like yesterday you were saying nobody in the world gave a shit if Israel commits war crimes because everybody hates Palestinians so we shouldn’t bother criticizing it, now you’re saying it’s probably not the IDF because they know committing war crimes will cause international pressure that will hurt their goals. It’s almost as though your position is pure liquid, molding itself to any container as long as that container is pro-Israel. What’s the point in arguing with you if even you don’t seem to believe whatever you’re saying at any given moment?
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On October 18 2023 11:02 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2023 10:49 Mohdoo wrote:On October 18 2023 10:43 ChristianS wrote:On October 18 2023 09:59 Mohdoo wrote:On October 18 2023 09:44 Sermokala wrote:
The strange part is defaulting on the idf being responsible and needing evidence to believe otherwise. In my eyes it comes down to: 1) Hamas has openly encouraged their inhabitants/members to sacrifice their lives in any way possible towards the goal of killing all Jews. 2) Hamas considers it ethical to use hospitals as missile launch sites because even if the hospital gets bombed, the optics harm Israel badly and the people who die go to heaven anyway since it was all in pursuit of killing Jews 3) Israel has made a non-zero effort to prevent civilian casualties, though we of course know they don't always let Hamas's tactic of using human shields prevent their objectives from being achieved So if we know Hamas encourages civilian casualties in pursuit of their goal of killing all Jews, would that not mean we actually have more reason to assume Hamas would do this? Wouldn't we even have more reason to believe Hamas would do this *intentionally* compared to Israel? Israel appears to understand sufficient international pressure will harm their goals and that they need to be as humane as possible if nothing else for that reason. Even if we assume they are soulless, they are 100% aware they need some level of optics mitigation/consideration. Bombing a hospital like this would need to be a HUGE value target to justify the optics of this. Especially since this entire situation is being live streamed from like 100 different angles. Inside job? You’re going with that? No, I think the more likely solution is an error on the part of Hamas. I don't think it was intentional. But I am pointing out that "civilian casualties in pursuit of killing more Jews" is openly endorsed within Hamas. This is such bad faith bullshit. First you’re JAQing off about whether Hamas might have done it intentionally, then denying it but still bringing up that they’re in favor of “civilian casualties” (not Palestinian casualties, last I checked). Didn’t you just get done saying you thought it was unintentional? Then what’s that got to do with it anyway? Meanwhile if it is unintentional you haven’t even given a reason you think it’s more likely a Hamas mistake than an IDF one! It was only like yesterday you were saying nobody in the world gave a shit if Israel commits war crimes because everybody hates Palestinians so we shouldn’t bother criticizing it, now you’re saying it’s probably not the IDF because they know committing war crimes will cause international pressure that will hurt their goals. It’s almost as though your position is pure liquid, molding itself to any container as long as that container is pro-Israel. What’s the point in arguing with you if even you don’t seem to believe whatever you’re saying at any given moment?
Hamas actually is in favor of civilian casualties on their own side. They would never say that part out loud of course, but it furthers their goals for Palestinians to die. They can always blame Israel anyways, so they get no flack, even if it's their own misfired rocket. Enraged relatives of the deceased are good recruits for extremism. Plus if they can say there are more dead on their side, they can yell about disproportionate responses and get the international community mad at Israel.
I'd go so far as to say one of the main goals of the October 7th massacre is to goad Israel into killing a lot of Palestinians. It was clearly a strategic choice to have so many of the terrorist film their own atrocities and share them on the internet. They want Israel to get super mad and make a mess.
That said, I don't think "inside job" is the most plausible explanation here. I think the best explanation for the huge explosion is that a misfired rocket hit a weapons cache of rockets. Hamas is known to have lots of their stuff at hospitals because Israel has strong PR reasons not to hit them. I would not be surprised in the least if their main rocket storage space is in some back room of an emergency room ward or something.
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On October 18 2023 11:02 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2023 10:49 Mohdoo wrote:On October 18 2023 10:43 ChristianS wrote:On October 18 2023 09:59 Mohdoo wrote:On October 18 2023 09:44 Sermokala wrote:
The strange part is defaulting on the idf being responsible and needing evidence to believe otherwise. In my eyes it comes down to: 1) Hamas has openly encouraged their inhabitants/members to sacrifice their lives in any way possible towards the goal of killing all Jews. 2) Hamas considers it ethical to use hospitals as missile launch sites because even if the hospital gets bombed, the optics harm Israel badly and the people who die go to heaven anyway since it was all in pursuit of killing Jews 3) Israel has made a non-zero effort to prevent civilian casualties, though we of course know they don't always let Hamas's tactic of using human shields prevent their objectives from being achieved So if we know Hamas encourages civilian casualties in pursuit of their goal of killing all Jews, would that not mean we actually have more reason to assume Hamas would do this? Wouldn't we even have more reason to believe Hamas would do this *intentionally* compared to Israel? Israel appears to understand sufficient international pressure will harm their goals and that they need to be as humane as possible if nothing else for that reason. Even if we assume they are soulless, they are 100% aware they need some level of optics mitigation/consideration. Bombing a hospital like this would need to be a HUGE value target to justify the optics of this. Especially since this entire situation is being live streamed from like 100 different angles. Inside job? You’re going with that? No, I think the more likely solution is an error on the part of Hamas. I don't think it was intentional. But I am pointing out that "civilian casualties in pursuit of killing more Jews" is openly endorsed within Hamas. This is such bad faith bullshit. First you’re JAQing off about whether Hamas might have done it intentionally, then denying it but still bringing up that they’re in favor of “civilian casualties” (not Palestinian casualties, last I checked). Didn’t you just get done saying you thought it was unintentional? Then what’s that got to do with it anyway? Meanwhile if it is unintentional you haven’t even given a reason you think it’s more likely a Hamas mistake than an IDF one! It was only like yesterday you were saying nobody in the world gave a shit if Israel commits war crimes because everybody hates Palestinians so we shouldn’t bother criticizing it, now you’re saying it’s probably not the IDF because they know committing war crimes will cause international pressure that will hurt their goals. It’s almost as though your position is pure liquid, molding itself to any container as long as that container is pro-Israel. What’s the point in arguing with you if even you don’t seem to believe whatever you’re saying at any given moment?
Its possible we are not understanding each other, so I'll try to do a better job at describing my thought on the topic. I apologize for being frustrating or unclear.
First of all, no real benefit to speculating and you are right to point out I had very little reason to spitball any thoughts on the topic when its been like an hour since it happened. and I am not committed to any specific prediction because i don't really mind who did it because innocent civilians are dead either way, which is of course tragic. I don't benefit from Israel or Hamas being responsible, but I of course have thoughts on how likely each scenario is based on my limited knowledge.
Beyond that, I don't think Hamas would bomb their own hospital. But if we assume the missile originated from Gaza, which appears to be confirmed and its more so a matter of whose fault it is that it hit the hospital, I think Hamas is more likely to try to shoot Israel than to shoot their own hospital.
Separately, within the ideology Hamas has clearly stated, dying in pursuit of killing Jews is both honorable and viewed favorably by god. That doesn't mean Hamas would view bombing a hospital of their own as a great idea, but it does contextualize their decision to use schools and whatnot for military staging grounds.
People give a shit if Israel commits war crimes. That is part of why Israel has responded so quickly to claim they were not responsible and why they appear to be highly concerned with convincing people the hospital bombing was not their doing. Part of the reason I said Israel is very likely going to use a great deal of lethal force against Hamas was the opportune optics. 1300+ people being killed from various countries is creating a situation where Israel has more moral "cover" to eliminate Hamas, even if a lot of civilians die. Especially when Hamas posted a bunch of videos of unsavory stuff and indicated their intention to do similar things in the future. It definitely made it easier for Israel to argue Hamas is distinctly unethical, which means less risk of becoming isolated from being violent towards Gaza. So what you might be referring to is how I said Israel has a ton of cover to go bananas on Gaza and that this is likely the "best" time for them to spend political capital on the topic, because the world is particularly sympathetic to Israel and particularly hateful towards Hamas right now.
What I have said is that the world has little room to criticize whatever method Israel uses to eliminate Hamas so long as no other faction is providing a credible alternative method to eliminating Hamas. As you can plainly see, many nations are still criticizing Hamas, but my position is that the leader of a nation has a moral imperative to choose the lives of their citizens over the lives of foreigners in situations where there is no choice of "neither". If we assume Hamas killed those 1300 people and we assume Hamas would love to do that again, I think Israel can safely assume allowing Hamas to continue governing Gaza will eventually lead to Israelis dying. Do we agree on these points? Do you think Hamas intends to kill more Jews?
I think most of our disagreement more so comes from the question as to whether or not complete removal of Hamas as a governing body is an acceptable request by Israel. Do you agree that Hamas intends to continue killing Israelis? And if so, do you think it is reasonable for Israel to define "no more land controlled by Hamas" as a minimum metric to meet for any proposed next step? Or do you think Israel should be expected to accept Hamas continuing to govern Gaza? I think the answers to these questions will help frame where exactly we disagree.
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@Jimmi, Cerebrate: If I were to describe Hamas as a “radical pro-Palestinian militant group/terrorist organization” would that seem off the mark to you? I’m not defending them, they’re directly responsible for an enormous number of atrocities, including some really nightmarish ones in very recent memory. And like any terrorist organization they’re clearly fine with Hamas members or Palestinian civilians dying for the cause. But if someone blew up a Palestinian hospital it seems obviously bad faith to say “well it’s probably them because we know they’re fine with civilian casualties”?
@Mohdoo: is it confirmed it originated from within Gaza? Do you have a source for that? That obviously changes the probabilities somewhat.
I’m fine with Hamas ceasing to exist. They’re awful, and I think Netanyahu propping them up was an enormous disservice to both Israelis and Palestinians. But you were also pretty clear in extremely recent memory that nobody cared about the Palestinians and Israel should be free to prosecute their war however they want (i.e. with total disregard for the laws of armed conflict). If so, and (hypothetically, I know the facts aren’t in yet) they targeted a hospital and lied about it, are you still saying that they should be immune from criticism?
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