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On November 05 2020 18:53 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 18:44 dbRic1203 wrote:On November 05 2020 18:39 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On November 05 2020 17:29 Zambrah wrote:
I don't think Texas is going to flip blue, it'd require a very particular sort of candidate that I dont believe we have at the moment.
In the 30+ year future though, yes, Republicans have a relatively bleak looking future. If Californians keep moving there, maybe. If Republicans keep the momentum with Hispanics going like they have in 2020, maybe not. Starr county, Texas, 96% Hispanic, 20%+ swing to Trump.All of those heavily Hispanic border counties swung big to Trump, even flipping a few.Seems like they may approve of the wall. My impression always was, that Trump was mostly doing politics for the rich uneducated, white, (old) men. I don t get why any other demographic group would vote in large percentages for him. Anyone insight on that? Many of them had a first hand experience of latin-american authoritarian socialism and somewhat got convinced that Biden was a communist. It's at least part of the story. If the liberals and progressives manage to dispel the notion that they are marxists and want to start a bolivarian revolution, they should win them back, but against the formidable propaganda machine of the right, it's gonna be hard. Of course it's not the whole story. And I suspect we should stop talking about "the latino vote". Immigrants from Cuba and immigrants from Mexico seem to have little in common and very different political behaviour.
I was going to respond that this explains Florida, but not southern Texas. This Florida problem should be quite easily solved. Here in Europe we don't go all crazy every time the far right accuses our social democrats of being Maoists. Mostly because we know their policy proposals and have seen them form governments and do things, without starting a Cultural Revolution. The progressives would actually have to gather enough power in the US to actually implement something of their policies, though, to implement the Green New Deal and not go full Castro. I mean.. there is not much better argument than "hey, if I had wanted to implement all of Fidel's policies, I would have done that.. but instead you got this awesome environmental protection plan that *also* creates jobs".
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On November 05 2020 18:44 dbRic1203 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 18:39 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On November 05 2020 17:29 Zambrah wrote:
I don't think Texas is going to flip blue, it'd require a very particular sort of candidate that I dont believe we have at the moment.
In the 30+ year future though, yes, Republicans have a relatively bleak looking future. If Californians keep moving there, maybe. If Republicans keep the momentum with Hispanics going like they have in 2020, maybe not. Starr county, Texas, 96% Hispanic, 20%+ swing to Trump.All of those heavily Hispanic border counties swung big to Trump, even flipping a few.Seems like they may approve of the wall. My impression always was, that Trump was mostly doing politics for the rich uneducated, white, (old) men. I don t get why any other demographic group would vote in large percentages for him. Anyone insight on that?
A large part of the hispanic population is probably atracted to the conservative christian values of the republican party,mostly when it comes to abortion. This will be a fundamental issue for the democrats for a very long time when it comes to apealing to this demographic and i think this is far more important then any of the other reasons like the "fear for socialism".
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Wait, Mexicans in Texas were experiencing latin american socialism?
Im pretty sure they're just extremely conservative and the only reason they wouldnt be 100% Republican is because Republicans seek to alienate them.
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On November 05 2020 18:44 dbRic1203 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 18:39 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On November 05 2020 17:29 Zambrah wrote:
I don't think Texas is going to flip blue, it'd require a very particular sort of candidate that I dont believe we have at the moment.
In the 30+ year future though, yes, Republicans have a relatively bleak looking future. If Californians keep moving there, maybe. If Republicans keep the momentum with Hispanics going like they have in 2020, maybe not. Starr county, Texas, 96% Hispanic, 20%+ swing to Trump.All of those heavily Hispanic border counties swung big to Trump, even flipping a few.Seems like they may approve of the wall. My impression always was, that Trump was mostly doing politics for the rich uneducated, white, (old) men. I don t get why any other demographic group would vote in large percentages for him. Anyone insight on that?
The republicans manage to convince poor uneducated people that they have their best interest at heart despite the fact that their policies really only favor the ultra rich. So why can't they do the same to other groups?
They use the same tools, mainly fear of others, greed and religion.
My sister in law has family from Bolivia who live in Arizona, they came to visit and explained to me that the democrats would make illegal immigrants and dead people vote in the election and that Trump was a great guy. They also said that the US was the best country on earth because their children were Americans since they were born in Phoenix. When I pointed out that Trump wanted to abolish birthright citizenship, they didn't care... Mind you, one is a tennis teacher and the other a stay at home mom.
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On November 05 2020 19:01 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 18:44 dbRic1203 wrote:On November 05 2020 18:39 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On November 05 2020 17:29 Zambrah wrote:
I don't think Texas is going to flip blue, it'd require a very particular sort of candidate that I dont believe we have at the moment.
In the 30+ year future though, yes, Republicans have a relatively bleak looking future. If Californians keep moving there, maybe. If Republicans keep the momentum with Hispanics going like they have in 2020, maybe not. Starr county, Texas, 96% Hispanic, 20%+ swing to Trump.All of those heavily Hispanic border counties swung big to Trump, even flipping a few.Seems like they may approve of the wall. My impression always was, that Trump was mostly doing politics for the rich uneducated, white, (old) men. I don t get why any other demographic group would vote in large percentages for him. Anyone insight on that? A large part of the hispanic population is probably atracted to the conservative christian values of the republican party,mostly when it comes to abortion. This will be a fundamental issue for the democrats for a very long time when it comes to apealing to this demographic and i think this plays a far bigger role then any of the other reasons like the "fear for socialism".
There's this as well. Good chance a lot of them approve of his appointing ABC. I mean, if she's anything, it's a very conservative Catholic, just as many Latinos are.
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On November 05 2020 18:44 dbRic1203 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 18:39 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On November 05 2020 17:29 Zambrah wrote:
I don't think Texas is going to flip blue, it'd require a very particular sort of candidate that I dont believe we have at the moment.
In the 30+ year future though, yes, Republicans have a relatively bleak looking future. If Californians keep moving there, maybe. If Republicans keep the momentum with Hispanics going like they have in 2020, maybe not. Starr county, Texas, 96% Hispanic, 20%+ swing to Trump.All of those heavily Hispanic border counties swung big to Trump, even flipping a few.Seems like they may approve of the wall. My impression always was, that Trump was mostly doing politics for the rich uneducated, white, (old) men. I don t get why any other demographic group would vote in large percentages for him. Anyone insight on that?
There's a lot to unpack but the short version is that Democrats aren't nearly as appealing to Hispanic/Latinx/Black people as they think. A lot of their support from such groups is borne of being terrified of Republicans more than disagreeing with Republican/Conservative ideology (other than the racism toward them).
Democrats have exploited the "It's us or the people that will kill and torment you for funzies. Tough shit if you don't like what we're offering" combined with "these token figures from your communities we've given superficial stature and relatively large paydays (for the token figures) support this policy that will mess up your lives" since pretty much always.
If/when Republicans can carve out rhetoric that makes people from those groups feel like Republicans are focused on "the bad ones" in their ranks but not them, then it's not hard to win their support.
For Trump's large gains among Black men it's similar but more about capitalism and the temporarily embarrassed millionaire syndrome.
EDIT: Joe Biden owes Black women everything and will give them nothing. It's astounding Democrats have managed to hang on to Black women in such numbers for so long in exchange for practically nothing.
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On November 05 2020 19:00 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 18:53 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 05 2020 18:44 dbRic1203 wrote:On November 05 2020 18:39 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On November 05 2020 17:29 Zambrah wrote:
I don't think Texas is going to flip blue, it'd require a very particular sort of candidate that I dont believe we have at the moment.
In the 30+ year future though, yes, Republicans have a relatively bleak looking future. If Californians keep moving there, maybe. If Republicans keep the momentum with Hispanics going like they have in 2020, maybe not. Starr county, Texas, 96% Hispanic, 20%+ swing to Trump.All of those heavily Hispanic border counties swung big to Trump, even flipping a few.Seems like they may approve of the wall. My impression always was, that Trump was mostly doing politics for the rich uneducated, white, (old) men. I don t get why any other demographic group would vote in large percentages for him. Anyone insight on that? Many of them had a first hand experience of latin-american authoritarian socialism and somewhat got convinced that Biden was a communist. It's at least part of the story. If the liberals and progressives manage to dispel the notion that they are marxists and want to start a bolivarian revolution, they should win them back, but against the formidable propaganda machine of the right, it's gonna be hard. Of course it's not the whole story. And I suspect we should stop talking about "the latino vote". Immigrants from Cuba and immigrants from Mexico seem to have little in common and very different political behaviour. I was going to respond that this explains Florida, but not southern Texas. This Florida problem should be quite easily solved. Here in Europe we don't go all crazy every time the far right accuses our social democrats of being Maoists. Mostly because we know their policy proposals and have seen them form governments and do things, without starting a Cultural Revolution. The progressives would actually have to gather enough power in the US to actually implement something of their policies, though, to implement the Green New Deal and not go full Castro. I mean.. there is not much better argument than "hey, if I had wanted to implement all of Fidel's policies, I would have done that.. but instead you got this awesome environmental protection plan that *also* creates jobs".
Yeah. The right-left axis really doesn't help.
My experience with venezuelians is that for many of them, "left" means "Maduro" and "further left" means "closer to Maduro".
It's really hard to explain to people that, actually, Maduro has wayyy more in common with Trump than with Sanders, especially when they are flooded by messages claiming that the liberals and progressives are all marxist-leninists.
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Is there still a chance for Trump to win the election?
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On November 05 2020 19:22 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 19:00 Acrofales wrote:On November 05 2020 18:53 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 05 2020 18:44 dbRic1203 wrote:On November 05 2020 18:39 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On November 05 2020 17:29 Zambrah wrote:
I don't think Texas is going to flip blue, it'd require a very particular sort of candidate that I dont believe we have at the moment.
In the 30+ year future though, yes, Republicans have a relatively bleak looking future. If Californians keep moving there, maybe. If Republicans keep the momentum with Hispanics going like they have in 2020, maybe not. Starr county, Texas, 96% Hispanic, 20%+ swing to Trump.All of those heavily Hispanic border counties swung big to Trump, even flipping a few.Seems like they may approve of the wall. My impression always was, that Trump was mostly doing politics for the rich uneducated, white, (old) men. I don t get why any other demographic group would vote in large percentages for him. Anyone insight on that? Many of them had a first hand experience of latin-american authoritarian socialism and somewhat got convinced that Biden was a communist. It's at least part of the story. If the liberals and progressives manage to dispel the notion that they are marxists and want to start a bolivarian revolution, they should win them back, but against the formidable propaganda machine of the right, it's gonna be hard. Of course it's not the whole story. And I suspect we should stop talking about "the latino vote". Immigrants from Cuba and immigrants from Mexico seem to have little in common and very different political behaviour. I was going to respond that this explains Florida, but not southern Texas. This Florida problem should be quite easily solved. Here in Europe we don't go all crazy every time the far right accuses our social democrats of being Maoists. Mostly because we know their policy proposals and have seen them form governments and do things, without starting a Cultural Revolution. The progressives would actually have to gather enough power in the US to actually implement something of their policies, though, to implement the Green New Deal and not go full Castro. I mean.. there is not much better argument than "hey, if I had wanted to implement all of Fidel's policies, I would have done that.. but instead you got this awesome environmental protection plan that *also* creates jobs". Yeah. The right-left axis really doesn't help. My experience with venezuelians is that for many of them, "left" means "Maduro" and "further left" means "closer to Maduro". It's really hard to explain to people that, actually, Maduro has wayyy more in common with Trump than with Sanders, especially when they are flooded by messages claiming that the liberals and progressives are all marxist-leninists.
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On November 05 2020 19:00 Acrofales wrote:
I was going to respond that this explains Florida, but not southern Texas. This Florida problem should be quite easily solved. Here in Europe we don't go all crazy every time the far right accuses our social democrats of being Maoists. Mostly because we know their policy proposals and have seen them form governments and do things, without starting a Cultural Revolution. The progressives would actually have to gather enough power in the US to actually implement something of their policies, though, to implement the Green New Deal and not go full Castro. I mean.. there is not much better argument than "hey, if I had wanted to implement all of Fidel's policies, I would have done that.. but instead you got this awesome environmental protection plan that *also* creates jobs".
Coming from a communist country I’ve got to say Trump is kind of a blend between Maoist and Mao himself, always hoisting up some kind of enemy and rallying his version of the Red guard, not to mention the self-proclaimed infallibility. That said Biden does appear somewhat like a careerist apparatchik, but at least he is not in-your-face abrasive like Trump.
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On November 05 2020 19:32 raga4ka wrote:
Is there still a chance for Trump to win the election?
Yes, he has to win every state still up for counting, bare either Nevada or Arizona.
So it s rather unlikely
So he has to win in
Pensylvania
North Carolina
Georgia
and either Nevada or Arizona
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I think the people that fall for "democrats are marxists!" and think "I'm against that" do it for a lot of the same reasons regardless of their ethnicity.
Democrats want welfare capitalism that is less bad than Republicans offer (like a better ratio of welfare to people vs corporations), but indisputably worse than most industrialized social democracies, and a lot of people just don't like that policy regardless of ethnicity or experience (or family stories of such) with Castro, Maduro, or otherwise.
Democrats have had strong support among those groups despite them not really liking their policy in large part because the opposition was so racist they couldn't even safely attend rallies to support them.
What Kanye was right about, was that under the right circumstances, a MAGA hat could greatly improve the perception of a minority. The Mexican-American with the Trump flag hanging off his truck doesn't make much sense until you see it pull up to the construction site where they are the foreman for a mid-sized construction conglomerate.
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On November 05 2020 19:46 GreenHorizons wrote:
I think the people that fall for "democrats are marxists!" and think "I'm against that" do it for a lot of the same reasons regardless of their ethnicity.
Democrats want welfare capitalism that is less bad than Republicans offer (like a better ratio of welfare to people vs corporations), but indisputably worse than most industrialized social democracies, and a lot of people just don't like that policy regardless of ethnicity or experience (or family stories of such) with Castro, Maduro, or otherwise.
Democrats have had strong support among those groups despite them not really liking their policy in large part because the opposition was so racist they couldn't even safely attend rallies to support them.
What Kanye was right about, was that under the right circumstances, a MAGA hat could greatly improve the perception of a minority. The Mexican-American with the Trump flag hanging off his truck doesn't make much sense until you see it pull up to the construction site where they are the foreman for a mid-sized construction conglomerate.
Well I gues if beeing for basic social security and against beeing robbed of the freedom to go bankrupt from an illness is "marxist", I m a marxist as well 
Also what someone mentioned earlier with votes soley based on religion is completly alien to me as well..
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Sigh.....
It's really a shitshow from republicans...
From the NYT live...
Stephanie Saul, in Atlanta 40m ago
Republicans in Georgia were nervously assessing the vote count and promised to file lawsuits in a dozen or more counties aimed at knocking off votes here and there. See Georgia results ›
Simon Romero
Simon Romero, in Phoenix 1:22 AM ET
More than 150 pro-Trump protesters, some armed, gathered outside the Maricopa County election office and chanted “Count the vote,” as officials continued to do just that. See Arizona results ›
Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs
Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, in New York 12:58 AM ET
Calling on election officials to “count every vote,” protesters marched in several U.S. cities as Trump mounted an aggressive effort to challenge the vote count.
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On November 05 2020 20:06 Nouar wrote:Sigh..... It's really a shitshow from republicans... From the NYT live... Show nested quote +Stephanie Saul, in Atlanta 40m ago
Republicans in Georgia were nervously assessing the vote count and promised to file lawsuits in a dozen or more counties aimed at knocking off votes here and there. See Georgia results ›
Simon Romero
Simon Romero, in Phoenix 1:22 AM ET
More than 150 pro-Trump protesters, some armed, gathered outside the Maricopa County election office and chanted “Count the vote,” as officials continued to do just that. See Arizona results ›
Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs
Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, in New York 12:58 AM ET
Calling on election officials to “count every vote,” protesters marched in several U.S. cities as Trump mounted an aggressive effort to challenge the vote count.
Nothing makes more sense than demonstrating in Arizona to "COUNT THE VOTE" and in the RustBelt to "STOP THE COUNT" at the same time.
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On November 05 2020 20:06 Nouar wrote:Sigh..... It's really a shitshow from republicans... From the NYT live... Show nested quote +Stephanie Saul, in Atlanta 40m ago
Republicans in Georgia were nervously assessing the vote count and promised to file lawsuits in a dozen or more counties aimed at knocking off votes here and there. See Georgia results ›
Simon Romero
Simon Romero, in Phoenix 1:22 AM ET
More than 150 pro-Trump protesters, some armed, gathered outside the Maricopa County election office and chanted “Count the vote,” as officials continued to do just that. See Arizona results ›
Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs
Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, in New York 12:58 AM ET
Calling on election officials to “count every vote,” protesters marched in several U.S. cities as Trump mounted an aggressive effort to challenge the vote count.
10/10 you can t make this up
count the vote - but not those!
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On November 05 2020 19:51 dbRic1203 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 19:46 GreenHorizons wrote:
I think the people that fall for "democrats are marxists!" and think "I'm against that" do it for a lot of the same reasons regardless of their ethnicity.
Democrats want welfare capitalism that is less bad than Republicans offer (like a better ratio of welfare to people vs corporations), but indisputably worse than most industrialized social democracies, and a lot of people just don't like that policy regardless of ethnicity or experience (or family stories of such) with Castro, Maduro, or otherwise.
Democrats have had strong support among those groups despite them not really liking their policy in large part because the opposition was so racist they couldn't even safely attend rallies to support them.
What Kanye was right about, was that under the right circumstances, a MAGA hat could greatly improve the perception of a minority. The Mexican-American with the Trump flag hanging off his truck doesn't make much sense until you see it pull up to the construction site where they are the foreman for a mid-sized construction conglomerate. Well I gues if beeing for basic social security and against beeing robbed of the freedom to go bankrupt from an illness is "marxist", I m a marxist as well Also what someone mentioned earlier with votes soley based on religion is completly alien to me as well..
It's a natural consequence of a two-party system. If you consider abortion murder, most other policies will be relatively irrelevant.
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Btw:
if I understand it correctly, that for some obscure reason Biden gets Georgia, Trump everything else thats left open, it ends as 269-269. Which then, given how the House and Senate are currently distributed, would end with a Biden+Pence presidency?
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On November 05 2020 20:09 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 19:51 dbRic1203 wrote:On November 05 2020 19:46 GreenHorizons wrote:
I think the people that fall for "democrats are marxists!" and think "I'm against that" do it for a lot of the same reasons regardless of their ethnicity.
Democrats want welfare capitalism that is less bad than Republicans offer (like a better ratio of welfare to people vs corporations), but indisputably worse than most industrialized social democracies, and a lot of people just don't like that policy regardless of ethnicity or experience (or family stories of such) with Castro, Maduro, or otherwise.
Democrats have had strong support among those groups despite them not really liking their policy in large part because the opposition was so racist they couldn't even safely attend rallies to support them.
What Kanye was right about, was that under the right circumstances, a MAGA hat could greatly improve the perception of a minority. The Mexican-American with the Trump flag hanging off his truck doesn't make much sense until you see it pull up to the construction site where they are the foreman for a mid-sized construction conglomerate. Well I gues if beeing for basic social security and against beeing robbed of the freedom to go bankrupt from an illness is "marxist", I m a marxist as well Also what someone mentioned earlier with votes soley based on religion is completly alien to me as well.. It's a natural consequence of a two-party system. If you consider abortion murder, most other policies will be relatively irrelevant.
Damit. I hope you re doing fine a poland, as you have kind of the same problem over there atm 
I still don t get why a single women would ever think, "this is a good idear to give away my choice, what I want to do with my body"
On November 05 2020 20:11 mahrgell wrote:
Btw:
if I understand it correctly, that for some obscure reason Biden gets Georgia, Trump everything else thats left open, it ends as 269-269. Which then, given how the House and Senate are currently distributed, would end with a Biden+Pence presidency?
I didn t see this one before, but that s probably not even close to the worst possible outcome.
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On November 05 2020 20:11 mahrgell wrote:
Btw:
if I understand it correctly, that for some obscure reason Biden gets Georgia, Trump everything else thats left open, it ends as 269-269. Which then, given how the House and Senate are currently distributed, would end with a Biden+Pence presidency?
No, Trump wins due to having more GOP State delegations in the House (iirc 26 vs 22). It won't be 269 tie though as didn't Biden win NE-2?
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EPT
