EPT2020 US Election - Page 140
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Batmankills
145 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10584 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On November 05 2020 13:18 Batmankills wrote: Can anyone verify if this is true? They are saying it's not 760k outstanding ballots, its 500k https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1324199597628153857 the place I am looking at (NYT) says 230k votes total in york county at 97% of the votes already being counted. 77k is more than 3% of 230k. It would have to say something like 75% votes in to make it look like 77k still missing? idk about the rest. Just looked at the 1 specific example though | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10584 Posts
Georgia new update: Biden +3.7k Trump +1k 78.7% gain for Biden. He's continuing to lower that gap. 29k separating. | ||
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Starlightsun
United States1405 Posts
On November 05 2020 12:57 Nebuchad wrote: As usual, important to remind everyone that this is not hypocrisy, this is them being very honest: they want the things that benefit them regardless of principles or circumstances. It's when they pretend that they do hold to certain principles that they are being hypocritical. I think it is hypocrisy because they are in a permanent campaign of accusing Democrats of being immoral and unprincipled. If they were simply living by "the ends justify the means" then fine, but not while sitting on the moral high donkey as the last bastion of Truth, Freedom, and Democracy. That's some hypocritical bullshit. | ||
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
I think the mail ballot situation in Pennsylvania needs a reappraisal based on info that some faithful readers pointed out to me via email. Earlier, I put together a snapshot of the situation based on data from the Pennsylvania Department of State’s mail ballot portal. But the state’s election data — the vote count — suggests that is out of date. Instead of having a little over 750,000 mail ballots to go, it looks there are actually slightly less than 500,000. That’s notable because it means that Biden has to win a higher share of mail ballots to overtake Trump than I initially realized. So based on the state’s data, Biden probably has to win around 68 percent of the outstanding ballots to win statewide by a hair, not 62 percent. To be clear, that’s quite possible — nearly a quarter of the mail ballots left to count are in Philadelphia proper, where Biden has won 93 percent of mail ballots counted so far. And he’s won more than 60 percent of the mail ballots in some counties where he won less than 30 percent of the overall vote, so even Republican-leaning areas aren’t necessarily bad news for Biden. But the point is, it could be a closer-run thing than the earlier analysis suggested. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4460 Posts
On November 05 2020 12:22 TheTenthDoc wrote: Personally, I welcome recounts. The more data we can get about how much impact they can actually have on election results, the better. Someday we might even tweak the recount margins to be more sane instead of allowing them in cases where obviously nothing will change... If the margin is within 0.5% then by state law there can be a recount, so I'm not sure what shingi's issue with it is.Georgia appears headed for a recount. | ||
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Batmankills
145 Posts
On November 05 2020 13:24 Toadesstern wrote: the place I am looking at (NYT) says 230k votes total in york county at 97% of the votes already being counted. 77k is more than 3% of 230k. It would have to say something like 75% votes in to make it look like 77k still missing? idk about the rest. Just looked at the 1 specific example though yeah. seems like some difference between what reporters are reporting and actual data | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32755 Posts
Wow, this really complicates things. Trump isn't done yet. | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10584 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On November 05 2020 13:29 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: If the margin is within 0.5% then by state law there can be a recount, so what's the issue.Georgia appears headed for a recount. Mostly I just don't see why the margins are so large. Recounts are costly and don't overturn 0.5% margins, so it's a pretty weird and aggressive cutpoint to have in so many states (let alone 1%); I could see as high as 0.3% but not much more than that. | ||
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Anc13nt
1557 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States10584 Posts
On November 05 2020 13:34 Anc13nt wrote: feel like they called arizona way too early I do too, but mainly we're gonna be waiting on that big 9pm PST dump in 30 minutes. That will tell us everything we need to know. If the dump comes out 55/45 Trump, Biden can breath a sigh of relief. Anything more than that and it becomes a nailbiter. | ||
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vult
United States9400 Posts
This is insanely close. | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
On November 05 2020 13:38 vult wrote: Yeah PA is the only state that matters at this point. Trump has to win to even stay in it, and if he wins he can lose GA or AZ and be ok... This is insanely close. This is incorrect. Trump needs to win PA + NV or AZ to win. | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10584 Posts
THE BIG BLUE DUMP IS HERE Big dump for Biden, erases over half the deficit with 79.6% going to Biden, well above the 66% needed | ||
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