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On November 05 2020 08:40 RenSC2 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 08:37 Shingi11 wrote:On November 05 2020 08:30 m4ini wrote:On November 05 2020 08:29 Shingi11 wrote:On November 05 2020 08:14 m4ini wrote:On November 05 2020 08:12 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:On November 05 2020 08:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/X8ZbyrZ.jpg) Wow. Wtf. Some fucking Kyle Rittenhouse is going to be inspired by that last sentence No. As usual, you're misrepresenting what Trump said. He didn't incite violence. He didn't mean it the way you make it out to be. Media is spinning. Post is fake. He's just trolling. Now that the typical trumpet doesn't need to justify this behaviour anymore, we can go into detail as to how fucked up this message really is. Tell me witch party was driving around in armed convoys trying to intimate votes and disrupt rallies and then get back to me on what is fucked up .. woosh. Did I miss the sarcasm cause if I did I am sorry. Yes, he was being sarcastic. Unfortunately, that is a hot-take that a few people might stop by to make non-sarcastically, so it's hard to tell if you don't recognize the poster at least a little.
yeah tbf every time I make a troll/sarcastic post I try to slip in a few absurd arguments in there so people can tell it is trolling but it always fails.
Theorem: For any ridiculous fallacious argument used in a troll comment, there exists a Trump supporter stupid enough to say it unironically.
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United States44398 Posts
On November 05 2020 08:44 Cricketer12 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 08:35 KwarK wrote:On November 05 2020 08:27 Cricketer12 wrote:On November 05 2020 08:16 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
It will take a week for NC to count the last 5%?
Wild. This should be a lesson, ballot tallying needs to be addressed. There really is no excuse for this The excuse is that they don’t know when the last ballot that was cast before the cutoff will arrive for counting. That’s why there are months before inauguration. It was never meant to be done in a night. NC is doing it properly. They’re one of the few. Yeah, my point is they should cut off mail in deadline, and start counting early so 100% reported can occur on election night
But the system already has a month built into it after the election for counting. That’s what that time is for. Why would you refuse to count mail in votes that were mailed before the election so that no counting was needed during the counting month?
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United States10584 Posts
PA UPDATE: Lead down to 256k.
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On November 05 2020 08:48 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 08:44 Cricketer12 wrote:On November 05 2020 08:35 KwarK wrote:On November 05 2020 08:27 Cricketer12 wrote:Wild. This should be a lesson, ballot tallying needs to be addressed. There really is no excuse for this The excuse is that they don’t know when the last ballot that was cast before the cutoff will arrive for counting. That’s why there are months before inauguration. It was never meant to be done in a night. NC is doing it properly. They’re one of the few. Yeah, my point is they should cut off mail in deadline, and start counting early so 100% reported can occur on election night But the system already has a month built into it after the election for counting. That’s what that time is for. Why would you refuse to count mail in votes that were mailed before the election so that no counting was needed during the counting month?
I'm arguing that if it's election night, then let the election be decided on that night. What's done is done for this election. So be it.
For future reference have a cutoff date that allows for an election to be decided on election night
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On November 05 2020 08:51 FlaShFTW wrote:
PA UPDATE: Lead down to 256k.
Thank you for these updates! I'm curious as to the rate though... as in, how much has the margin closed by over the past X%, and is it appropriate to extrapolate the rate to the remaining percent to really get a solid idea as to whether or not Biden will get enough votes in time?
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How sure are we that NV and AZ and PA all go to Biden, which would ensure a Biden victory? Are any of these shaky?
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Though Dems didn't do nearly as well in the state Congress as they had hoped, they did manage to flip the Michigan Supreme Court.
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On November 05 2020 08:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Thank you for these updates! I'm curious as to the rate though... as in, how much has the margin closed by over the past X%, and is it appropriate to extrapolate the rate to the remaining percent to really get a solid idea as to whether or not Biden will get enough votes in time?
was posted 2 pages ago or so, if the remaining mail-in ballots keep breaking the same way they have so far for the last couple hours Biden would end up with a low 2.x % lead in the end.
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United States10584 Posts
On November 05 2020 08:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
How sure are we that NV and AZ and PA all go to Biden, which would ensure a Biden victory? Are any of these shaky?
NV is almost guaranteed, the remaining votes should be clearly in Biden's camp.
Many analysts have had Biden going very strongly in PA, at least 2 point victory wit hthe pace and the votes left.
AZ is lean Biden, Trump needs to really outperform with the remaining EVs that are republican favored.
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United States10584 Posts
On November 05 2020 08:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Thank you for these updates! I'm curious as to the rate though... as in, how much has the margin closed by over the past X%, and is it appropriate to extrapolate the rate to the remaining percent to really get a solid idea as to whether or not Biden will get enough votes in time?
Well, at 70% reporting, Trump was up 700-800k. Now its 86% reporting, Philadelphia still sitting at 70% reporting, and the lead is already down to 250k.
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On November 05 2020 08:58 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 08:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 05 2020 08:51 FlaShFTW wrote:
PA UPDATE: Lead down to 256k. Thank you for these updates! I'm curious as to the rate though... as in, how much has the margin closed by over the past X%, and is it appropriate to extrapolate the rate to the remaining percent to really get a solid idea as to whether or not Biden will get enough votes in time? was posted 2 pages ago or so, if the remaining mail-in ballots keep breaking the same way they have so far for the last couple hours Biden would end up with a low 2.x % lead in the end.
Ah good catch! Thank you!
On November 05 2020 08:59 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 08:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
How sure are we that NV and AZ and PA all go to Biden, which would ensure a Biden victory? Are any of these shaky? NV is almost guaranteed, the remaining votes should be clearly in Biden's camp. Many analysts have had Biden going very strongly in PA, at least 2 point victory wit hthe pace and the votes left. AZ is lean Biden, Trump needs to really outperform with the remaining EVs that are republican favored.
Thanks! If AZ happens to flip to Trump, then Trump would win (assuming he takes the entire southeast), right?
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On November 05 2020 08:54 Cricketer12 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 08:48 KwarK wrote:On November 05 2020 08:44 Cricketer12 wrote:On November 05 2020 08:35 KwarK wrote:On November 05 2020 08:27 Cricketer12 wrote:Wild. This should be a lesson, ballot tallying needs to be addressed. There really is no excuse for this The excuse is that they don’t know when the last ballot that was cast before the cutoff will arrive for counting. That’s why there are months before inauguration. It was never meant to be done in a night. NC is doing it properly. They’re one of the few. Yeah, my point is they should cut off mail in deadline, and start counting early so 100% reported can occur on election night But the system already has a month built into it after the election for counting. That’s what that time is for. Why would you refuse to count mail in votes that were mailed before the election so that no counting was needed during the counting month? I'm arguing that if it's election night, then let the election be decided on that night. What's done is done for this election. So be it. For future reference have a cutoff date that allows for an election to be decided on election night The Media makes it an election night, not the constitution or state election laws.
The electoral college doesn't vote until mid way through december, there is no need to rush things.
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Basically, Biden's vote share in the remaining votes can fade from 75/25 (what has been seen) to something like 66/33 and he'd still narrowly win PA. If it holds that high he'll take it nicely. I think, anyway, haven't checked with the latest numbers.
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United States10584 Posts
On November 05 2020 09:00 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 08:58 Toadesstern wrote:On November 05 2020 08:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 05 2020 08:51 FlaShFTW wrote:
PA UPDATE: Lead down to 256k. Thank you for these updates! I'm curious as to the rate though... as in, how much has the margin closed by over the past X%, and is it appropriate to extrapolate the rate to the remaining percent to really get a solid idea as to whether or not Biden will get enough votes in time? was posted 2 pages ago or so, if the remaining mail-in ballots keep breaking the same way they have so far for the last couple hours Biden would end up with a low 2.x % lead in the end. Ah good catch! Thank you! Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 08:59 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 08:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
How sure are we that NV and AZ and PA all go to Biden, which would ensure a Biden victory? Are any of these shaky? NV is almost guaranteed, the remaining votes should be clearly in Biden's camp. Many analysts have had Biden going very strongly in PA, at least 2 point victory wit hthe pace and the votes left. AZ is lean Biden, Trump needs to really outperform with the remaining EVs that are republican favored. Thanks! If AZ happens to flip to Trump, then Trump would win (assuming he takes the entire southeast), right?
If Biden wins Nevada, any last remaining state wins for Biden. Trump needs to run the gauntlet right now.
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On November 05 2020 09:00 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 08:58 Toadesstern wrote:On November 05 2020 08:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 05 2020 08:51 FlaShFTW wrote:
PA UPDATE: Lead down to 256k. Thank you for these updates! I'm curious as to the rate though... as in, how much has the margin closed by over the past X%, and is it appropriate to extrapolate the rate to the remaining percent to really get a solid idea as to whether or not Biden will get enough votes in time? was posted 2 pages ago or so, if the remaining mail-in ballots keep breaking the same way they have so far for the last couple hours Biden would end up with a low 2.x % lead in the end. Ah good catch! Thank you! Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 08:59 FlaShFTW wrote:On November 05 2020 08:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
How sure are we that NV and AZ and PA all go to Biden, which would ensure a Biden victory? Are any of these shaky? NV is almost guaranteed, the remaining votes should be clearly in Biden's camp. Many analysts have had Biden going very strongly in PA, at least 2 point victory wit hthe pace and the votes left. AZ is lean Biden, Trump needs to really outperform with the remaining EVs that are republican favored. Thanks! If AZ happens to flip to Trump, then Trump would win (assuming he takes the entire southeast), right?
If Biden wins PA it's over for Trump.
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United States10584 Posts
On November 05 2020 09:01 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Basically, Biden's vote share in the remaining votes can fade from 75/25 (what has been seen) to something like 66/33 and he'd still narrowly win PA. If it holds that high he'll take it nicely. I think, anyway, haven't checked with the latest numbers.
Yes, this is what is anticipated, but his vote share has not budged and the Michigan/Wisconsin final results were very hard in favor of Biden. I anticipate those results will give us a good idea of what will happen in PA.
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United States10584 Posts
Nevada is going back to announcing results on Thursday 12pm EST. what the fuck.
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On November 05 2020 09:00 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2020 08:54 Cricketer12 wrote:On November 05 2020 08:48 KwarK wrote:On November 05 2020 08:44 Cricketer12 wrote:On November 05 2020 08:35 KwarK wrote:On November 05 2020 08:27 Cricketer12 wrote:Wild. This should be a lesson, ballot tallying needs to be addressed. There really is no excuse for this The excuse is that they don’t know when the last ballot that was cast before the cutoff will arrive for counting. That’s why there are months before inauguration. It was never meant to be done in a night. NC is doing it properly. They’re one of the few. Yeah, my point is they should cut off mail in deadline, and start counting early so 100% reported can occur on election night But the system already has a month built into it after the election for counting. That’s what that time is for. Why would you refuse to count mail in votes that were mailed before the election so that no counting was needed during the counting month? I'm arguing that if it's election night, then let the election be decided on that night. What's done is done for this election. So be it. For future reference have a cutoff date that allows for an election to be decided on election night The Media makes it an election night, not the constitution or state election laws. The electoral college doesn't vote until mid way through december, there is no need to rush things.
That's actually a good point, I had forgotten about that
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so Biden has like 90% chance of winning now?
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United States10584 Posts
PA UPDATE: Lead down to 247k.
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EPT
