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2020 US Election - Page 129

Forum Index > General Forum
Post a Reply
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FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10533 Posts
November 05 2020 00:20 GMT
#2561
https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1324142572747501568?s=20

Fulton just came in with more votes, all great for Biden. Lead in GA down to 47k.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
November 05 2020 00:20 GMT
#2562
On November 05 2020 09:18 Amui wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2020 09:13 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:12 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Trump campaign now filing suit in GA.



This is the main thing giving me hope Biden might actually squeak out a win there. Doesn't look nearly as good for him as PA, and will be within recount margins, but at least we might know before Friday.

If they're filing suit, and not even waiting for a recount, it's likely that from the inside info they have access to, Georgia will turn blue by the time the votes are tallied, and not by an amount that is likely to change with a recount.


Yeah, that's definitely what rational actors would do. I'm just scared of staking any hopes on Trump's actions being those of a rational actor...
Shinokuki
Profile Joined July 2013
United States924 Posts
November 05 2020 00:20 GMT
#2563
On November 05 2020 09:19 Zambrah wrote:
does anyone wonder if Trump regrets becoming president?


He's a very unfortunate man. If he had just lived on his inheritance money he could've just chilled until he died
Life is just life
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32754 Posts
November 05 2020 00:22 GMT
#2564
On November 05 2020 09:19 Zambrah wrote:
does anyone wonder if Trump regrets becoming president?

Only if he's in prison and facing hundreds of millions to repay to Deutsche Bank and other creditors.
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
Zambrah
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States7393 Posts
November 05 2020 00:22 GMT
#2565
It feels like he really could have coasted to death without all of the scrutiny hes received.

Wonder how ruined he'll end up being when its all said and done.
Incremental change is the Democrat version of Trickle Down economics.
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
November 05 2020 00:22 GMT
#2566
On November 05 2020 09:10 micronesia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2020 09:09 Nevuk wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:06 Anc13nt wrote:
so Biden has like 90% chance of winning now?

Higher. Something above 99% right now.


Oh dear God don't jinx it please. Let's wait and see how the last few states tally up.

Trump has to sweep mail in votes in at least four states to win. I don't think he has won even a plurality of mail in votes anywhere so far.

All the states left to count are blue shift states, and the totals left to count are so small it'd take something unprecedented for him to win now in Mi, Nv, and Az. He needs one of those on top of pa ga nc.

Not impossible, but it is extremely unlikely.
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10533 Posts
November 05 2020 00:23 GMT
#2567
Looking at the map shift from 2016, if Biden can win Philly by the same blue shift in big cities in every other city when those votes come in, he'll be comfortably able to win PA.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
November 05 2020 00:23 GMT
#2568
Fulton County will finish tonight.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
StasisField
Profile Joined August 2013
United States1086 Posts
November 05 2020 00:23 GMT
#2569
On November 05 2020 09:22 Zambrah wrote:
It feels like he really could have coasted to death without all of the scrutiny hes received.

Wonder how ruined he'll end up being when its all said and done.

The New York state court is what I'll be watching once he's finally out of office.
What do you mean Immortals can't shoot up?
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-05 00:25:29
November 05 2020 00:24 GMT
#2570
On November 05 2020 09:22 Nevuk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2020 09:10 micronesia wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:09 Nevuk wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:06 Anc13nt wrote:
so Biden has like 90% chance of winning now?

Higher. Something above 99% right now.


Oh dear God don't jinx it please. Let's wait and see how the last few states tally up.

Trump has to sweep mail in votes in at least four states to win. I don't think he has won even a plurality of mail in votes anywhere so far.

All the states left to count are blue shift states, and the totals left to count are so small it'd take something unprecedented for him to win now in Mi, Nv, and Az. He needs one of those on top of pa ga nc.

Not impossible, but it is extremely unlikely.


I don't think AZ is a perfectly reliable blue shift state-the Republicans have an edge in registration among early voters there in the specific types of early voters that remain to be tabulated. If Biden and Trump take 100% of their registrants and the independents split 50/50, it's down the wire.

NV will definitely shift blue though. And all signs point to a PA victory as well.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
November 05 2020 00:25 GMT
#2571
--- Nuked ---
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10533 Posts
November 05 2020 00:25 GMT
#2572
On November 05 2020 09:24 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2020 09:22 Nevuk wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:10 micronesia wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:09 Nevuk wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:06 Anc13nt wrote:
so Biden has like 90% chance of winning now?

Higher. Something above 99% right now.


Oh dear God don't jinx it please. Let's wait and see how the last few states tally up.

Trump has to sweep mail in votes in at least four states to win. I don't think he has won even a plurality of mail in votes anywhere so far.

All the states left to count are blue shift states, and the totals left to count are so small it'd take something unprecedented for him to win now in Mi, Nv, and Az. He needs one of those on top of pa ga nc.

Not impossible, but it is extremely unlikely.


I don't think AZ is a perfectly reliable blue shift state-the Republicans have an edge in registration among early voters there in the specific types of early voters that remain to be tabulated. If Biden and Trump take 100% of their registrants and the independents split 50/50, it's down the wire.

NV will definitely shift blue though.

Nate Silver and Cohn have both said that the registration there is still different, the republicans there are more likely to be swing voters because these are your old school conservatives (mccain/romney/reagan conservatives).
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-05 00:28:20
November 05 2020 00:27 GMT
#2573
On November 05 2020 09:25 FlaShFTW wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2020 09:24 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:22 Nevuk wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:10 micronesia wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:09 Nevuk wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:06 Anc13nt wrote:
so Biden has like 90% chance of winning now?

Higher. Something above 99% right now.


Oh dear God don't jinx it please. Let's wait and see how the last few states tally up.

Trump has to sweep mail in votes in at least four states to win. I don't think he has won even a plurality of mail in votes anywhere so far.

All the states left to count are blue shift states, and the totals left to count are so small it'd take something unprecedented for him to win now in Mi, Nv, and Az. He needs one of those on top of pa ga nc.

Not impossible, but it is extremely unlikely.


I don't think AZ is a perfectly reliable blue shift state-the Republicans have an edge in registration among early voters there in the specific types of early voters that remain to be tabulated. If Biden and Trump take 100% of their registrants and the independents split 50/50, it's down the wire.

NV will definitely shift blue though.

Nate Silver and Cohn have both said that the registration there is still different, the republicans there are more likely to be swing voters because these are your old school conservatives (mccain/romney/reagan conservatives).


Oh, that's definitely true-and I think it's very unlikely it will be a 100/100 and 50/50 split of independents. But I think it still may be a red shift for a bit.
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10533 Posts
November 05 2020 00:28 GMT
#2574
On November 05 2020 09:27 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2020 09:25 FlaShFTW wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:24 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:22 Nevuk wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:10 micronesia wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:09 Nevuk wrote:
On November 05 2020 09:06 Anc13nt wrote:
so Biden has like 90% chance of winning now?

Higher. Something above 99% right now.


Oh dear God don't jinx it please. Let's wait and see how the last few states tally up.

Trump has to sweep mail in votes in at least four states to win. I don't think he has won even a plurality of mail in votes anywhere so far.

All the states left to count are blue shift states, and the totals left to count are so small it'd take something unprecedented for him to win now in Mi, Nv, and Az. He needs one of those on top of pa ga nc.

Not impossible, but it is extremely unlikely.


I don't think AZ is a perfectly reliable blue shift state-the Republicans have an edge in registration among early voters there in the specific types of early voters that remain to be tabulated. If Biden and Trump take 100% of their registrants and the independents split 50/50, it's down the wire.

NV will definitely shift blue though.

Nate Silver and Cohn have both said that the registration there is still different, the republicans there are more likely to be swing voters because these are your old school conservatives (mccain/romney/reagan conservatives).


Oh, that's definitely true-and I think it's very unlikely it will be a 100/100 and 50/50 split of independents. But I think it still may be a red shift for a bit.

Trump will for sure close the gap, but I anticipate the gap will be Biden winning by 1%
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
November 05 2020 00:30 GMT
#2575
Biden campaign has called a lid.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
November 05 2020 00:36 GMT
#2576
Might actually get a blue PA before I go to bed tonight. Pleeeease do it, even if you aren't called.
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10533 Posts
November 05 2020 00:37 GMT
#2577
On November 05 2020 09:36 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Might actually get a blue PA before I go to bed tonight. Pleeeease do it, even if you aren't called.

The second PA flips blue is when I anticipate they'll call it. Only reason they haven't called it already with all the blue vote left in Philly and its suburbs is because they just want to see it first. There's literally no chance for Trump if PA flips.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
Shingi11
Profile Joined May 2016
290 Posts
November 05 2020 00:38 GMT
#2578
And don't forget we still have the whole can of worms that is absentee and votes that are post marked by election day. We could see Biden come back in NC and maybe cal can keep the dem senate dream alive.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
November 05 2020 00:39 GMT
#2579
Fox News is slowly backing away from Trump. If they announce GA tonight it would either be during Hannity, or Ingrhams show.

We might actually get a real time reaction from Trump if he phones in to talk to either of them.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10533 Posts
November 05 2020 00:44 GMT
#2580
PA UPDATE: Trump lead shrank to 212k. Philly and its suburbs STILL haven't reported. I anticipate a flip tonight.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
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