EPTTrading/Investing Thread - Page 72
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AirbladeOrange
United States2573 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Luepert
United States1933 Posts
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FreakyDroid
Macedonia2616 Posts
On June 09 2021 06:00 GoTuNk! wrote: I did not have the stomach to buy last bitcoin's dip. I have managed to turn a nice profit buying at 32-35k and selling at 36-38, multiple times, though. You'd be more profitable on altcoins, no point buying BTC on dips imo. What I do is target support levels which historically provide nice bounces to the upside, 10-15% profit - close it and then wait for another dip or pullback. My favorites are KSM, DOT, CAKE, ADA which usually bounce off nicely. I mean, you can have some small positions in case we get a reversal, but Im too conservative and waiting to get a confirmation for an uptrend, which we dont have at the moment. | ||
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GoTuNk!
Chile4591 Posts
On June 09 2021 18:57 FreakyDroid wrote: You'd be more profitable on altcoins, no point buying BTC on dips imo. What I do is target support levels which historically provide nice bounces to the upside, 10-15% profit - close it and then wait for another dip or pullback. My favorites are KSM, DOT, CAKE, ADA which usually bounce off nicely. I mean, you can have some small positions in case we get a reversal, but Im too conservative and waiting to get a confirmation for an uptrend, which we dont have at the moment. Yeah, all cryptos have huge swings that leave a big room for trading. I imagine less popular coins have even wilder swings than btc. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Emnjay808
United States10660 Posts
Also bought into SPCE and EH at 38 and 40. I somehow always manage to buy at the peak then it starts dropping—same thing happened when I bought into NIO at 56 then I averaged it down to 44. “Head and shoulders” (bullish optimism) is what I keep telling myself 😓😓 | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On June 11 2021 01:04 Emnjay808 wrote: From my miniscule understanding of short selling and the market: seems like short sellers will just keep borrowing shares of AMC and continue to drive down the price (slowly). Apparently as long as they have the capital reserve they can keep borrowing shares and doing this. Can’t lose if you don’t ever run out of money! | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On June 11 2021 01:04 Emnjay808 wrote: From my miniscule understanding of short selling and the market: seems like short sellers will just keep borrowing shares of AMC and continue to drive down the price (slowly). Apparently as long as they have the capital reserve they can keep borrowing shares and doing this. Also bought into SPCE and EH at 38 and 40. I somehow always manage to buy at the peak then it starts dropping—same thing happened when I bought into NIO at 56 then I averaged it down to 44. “Head and shoulders” (bullish optimism) is what I keep telling myself 😓😓 Not really. When something like GME goes from 5 to 300, a lot of people will short it, because the price doesnt reflect fundamentals... So it's not like you get one short squeeze spike, and then plummets down, because the short ratio will remain high for a long time. The fact that retail investors really like the hold mentality makes it a big game of chicken. If it was a coordinated effort by an institution they would exit their position at a high price and then it would drop back down much quicker. Interesting dynamics at play, difficult to predict what will happen. Everyone knows what GME and AMC is now, and imo that will keep the price up above $50 for a long time, the casino stock is always at the back of people's minds as a possible play. Because I expect it to drop quite slowly over time, it doesn't make sense to short it for me. To short when it's $300, I would want at least double the money to survive any squeeze, and if it drops to $100 in a year, that's only $200 return on $600 invested. It's not a super high return for something so risky (could go to $800 before its way down to $100 and I'd be effed for example). | ||
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ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
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FreakyDroid
Macedonia2616 Posts
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Emnjay808
United States10660 Posts
On June 12 2021 00:14 FiWiFaKi wrote: Not really. When something like GME goes from 5 to 300, a lot of people will short it, because the price doesnt reflect fundamentals... So it's not like you get one short squeeze spike, and then plummets down, because the short ratio will remain high for a long time. The fact that retail investors really like the hold mentality makes it a big game of chicken. If it was a coordinated effort by an institution they would exit their position at a high price and then it would drop back down much quicker. Interesting dynamics at play, difficult to predict what will happen. Everyone knows what GME and AMC is now, and imo that will keep the price up above $50 for a long time, the casino stock is always at the back of people's minds as a possible play. Because I expect it to drop quite slowly over time, it doesn't make sense to short it for me. To short when it's $300, I would want at least double the money to survive any squeeze, and if it drops to $100 in a year, that's only $200 return on $600 invested. It's not a super high return for something so risky (could go to $800 before its way down to $100 and I'd be effed for example). I forgot the “little guys” can also short the meme stocks. Definitely makes sense to do that, but the risk seems near infinite and I could never do that cause I would lose sleep lol. I stare enough at my phone at 3:30am as it is (when market opens in Hawaii) | ||
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FreakyDroid
Macedonia2616 Posts
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
I was biting my fingers a bit for the Fed meeting today as I have my approval for a new built house, but because I did almost a year out the rate was very poor... And need to negotiate a rate 120 days or closer to possession, and I'm at 140 days or so. Looks like people didn't get too spooked which is nice, hoping to get 1.7% 5 year fixed. Also bit of a rant from me now. I keep trying to find some alternative to WSB because it's really gone downhill. Literally every play there is something that pumped by 30% due to some imaginery squeeze, and consistently drops right after because there never is enough steam. People hold on due to the 5% of tickers that manage to not horribly fail, but don't even do that good, like AMC. Unfortunately, every other forum is the biggest pussy shit I've ever seen, pardon my language. Yes, let's discuss whether to buy VOO or do a split between VGRO, VOO and one other one with my $600. Like come on. And then the people who tell you, that you shouldn't be invested in stocks when you retire, like wtf. These people are so risk averse, that they'd pass up a 99% chance to double their money, to prevent the 1% probability of losing a dollar. If you're 65 and you're sitting in a pile of cash, you should put every single dollar in the investment that has the highest average expected return. If the stock market crashes by 50%, so what, you're only withdrawing 1 year of your 20 year retirement amount... So yeah, sure, for 20 years, let's just let all our money bleed out to inflation and 20 years of opportunity cost. Sigh. I mean I know I'm more risk loving than most people, but you're tossing that coin enough times that risk adjusted value shouldn't even be a thing... It's all about average expected return. I'm feeling like a bit of a lost duck without a home haha. Anyway, as for updates on my positions... Still riding Shaw after buying 1 month before the Rogers acquisition, up 60% or so, still has another 11-12% to run up to reach the purchase price, which is a done deal to me. Suncor is still my largest position, loaded on margin to my neck on that one, patience and trust in my play really paying off on that one. I chosen a very poor entry, twice... So the 30% return feels pretty disappointing, especially as some smaller oil companies had 1000% returns in the last year, but I'm sure would've been harder to sleep holding some of those... Either way, turned out to be one of the weaker plays when gambling on oil. I think Suncor earnings will be massive, I expect at least a 50% dividend increase, $36 CAD is my exit point on that one, though I think a 45-50 price point isn't too far fetched. Then lastly, I rebought vfv (S&P 500 etf) on May 12th, times the entry pretty well, was able to collect 2.5% versus just holding the whole time... Don't really have a plan with this one. Probably would like some to rebalance that into Nasdaq during the next bigger crash, no price targets as of yet. Trying to keep the plays reasonably safe as I'll need another 10% deposit for my mortgage in 5 months. Eyes on Tellurian and ASTS in the meantime as the riskier plays, couple gold mining companies I have my eyes on too. Trying to pick companies with negative correlations, so that when one goes up, the other goes down and I can rebalance. Suncor has been fantastic for that, because as oil goes up, money made on Suncor, but when oil goes down, Canadian dollar depreciates, and so S&P500 in Canadian dollars goes up. | ||
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Emnjay808
United States10660 Posts
NIO is doing great too. I’m glad I doubled my position with them a few weeks ago. Not sure what 58M volume means but it’s doing the stock good | ||
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Micheo
4 Posts
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Emnjay808
United States10660 Posts
I bought at 6 then averaged up to 8. Gains made in after hours are more than all my longs combined. Yeesh. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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KwarK
United States43203 Posts
On July 01 2021 01:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Until the fines exceeds the gains then this type of Corruption will continue. https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1410252481741864968 Edit: I assumed it was GME related. It was not. It’s from the bug in March 2020 where their code couldn’t work out why Feb 28 wasn’t followed by Mar 1. They had the same issue in 2016 apparently. + Show Spoiler [Completely irrelevant] + My understanding is that when a broker places a buy order they don’t hand over cash immediately and they don’t receive the stock immediately. However the buying broker is obliged to provide the stock to their customer, having taken their money. Similarly the broker for the sell side is obliged to take the stock off of their customer and give them cash. This creates counterparty risk for the brokers. If I tell Robinhood to sell my GameStop share for $400 and they find another broker who agrees to buy the share for one of their customers for $400 then Robinhood takes my share and gives me $400. They then need to make the exchange with the other broker and if they fail to complete that exchange then they’re stuck holding my share with no cash. As a middle man they make their money connecting two entities which want to transact but default by one entity doesn’t absolve responsibility to the other. For most things the risk is relatively low and the brokers have collateral posted to prevent any kind of issues. The stock doesn’t fluctuate too much, the volume of any given stock isn’t too high, and so with collateral posted with the clearing house the exchanges should be safe. During the GameStop mania Robinhood basically got margin called. The clearing house risk equation demanded substantially more collateral than before because of the volume and volatility of the trades coming out of Robinhood. They couldn’t post the collateral and so were unable to operate as a middle man. It’s grossly incompetent of them to not have sufficient liquidity to perform the basic middle man function that is their entire business and a lot of innocent people got fucked because of it. But I don’t think it’s corruption. I used to but the counterparty risk clearing house collateral explanation, combined with the volume and volatility inputs going off the charts, makes a fair amount of sense to me. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
Makes watching these Robinhood flubs amusing rather than frustrating as it was when my money depended on Robinhood not making stupid errors several times a year. | ||
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