Trading/Investing Thread - Page 103

On April 18 2022 23:48 MeSaber wrote:
Rivian will tank.

7:40
https://youtu.be/D2TEuPl9UpE

Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe warned that a shortage of electric-car batteries could soon eclipse the issues that the automotive industry has faced from the computer chip shortage.

"Semiconductors are a small appetizer to what we are about to feel on battery cells over the next two decades," Scaringe said, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal. The Rivian CEO made the comment while giving reporters a tour of the company's plant in Normal, Illinois.

Over the past two years, the chip shortage has led companies to slash production and cut electronic features like touch screens and seat heaters. In September, consulting firm AlixPartners estimated that the chip shortage would cost automakers over $210 billion in 2021.

Now, automakers looking to branch out into electric cars could face a critical shortage of EV batteries, as well as the metals required to produce the roughly 1,000 pound lithium-ion batteries.

"Put very simply, all the world's cell production combined represents well under 10% of what we will need in 10 years," Scaringe said, according to The Journal. "Meaning, 90% to 95% of the supply chain does not exist," he added.

Scaringe told reporters that Rivian's strategy for securing battery cells is to diversify its suppliers, as well as build up its capacity to create its own battery cells.

The Rivian CEO is not the first to express concern over future EV battery supplies. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has repeatedly warned battery supplies could become a major issue.

Earlier this month, Musk said Tesla is considering getting into mining and refining lithium. In 2020, Tesla secured its own rights to mine lithium in Nevada after a deal to buy a lithium mining company fell through, according to Fortune.

Over the past year, prices for the metal have more than quadrupled as the pace of lithium extraction has lagged behind demand for electric cars, according to data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Last month, nickel prices hit their highest level in over 20 years.

Last year, the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) released a report that found that battery cell production will not be able to meet demand until 2030, causing an estimated shortage of over 18.7 million electric cars between 2022 and 2029.

"Although considerable production capacities for lithium-ion cells are being built up in the US, Europe, and China, the construction of the cell factories takes time, as does the material chains for anodes and cathodes, ranging from lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese," the report said.

Scaringe acknowledged that, as a new player in the auto industry, the company has faced difficulty securing computer chips. The carmaker has cut its production targets for 2022 in half as a result.

"I'm on the phone with semiconductor supplier CEOs every day," Scaringe said, according to report from Axios. "It's a day-in, day-out battle for allocation and the number we get is precisely equal to the number of vehicles we build," he added.

Rivian began selling its first models last fall — the R1T truck and R1S SUV. Last year, the electric-car maker had a blockbuster IPO that briefly valued the company over top automakers like Ford and General Motor, but since then Rivian's share price has dipped.

Netflix on Tuesday reported a loss of 200,000 subscribers during the first quarter — its first decline in paid users in more than a decade — and warned of deepening trouble ahead.

The company’s shares cratered more than 25% in extended hours after the report on more than a full day’s worth of trading volume. Fellow streaming stocks Roku, Spotify and Disney also tumbled in the after-hours market after Netflix’s brutal update.

Netflix is forecasting a global paid subscriber loss of 2 million for the second quarter. The last time Netflix lost subscribers was October 2011 when it shed 800,000 paid users.

“Our revenue growth has slowed considerably,” the company wrote in a letter to shareholders Tuesday. “Streaming is winning over linear, as we predicted, and Netflix titles are very popular globally,. However, our relatively high household penetration — when including the large number of households sharing accounts — combined with competition, is creating revenue growth headwinds.”

Netflix previously told shareholders it expected to add 2.5 million net subscribers during the first quarter. Analysts had predicted that number would be closer to 2.7 million. During the same period a year ago, Netflix added 3.98 million paid users.

On April 20 2022 07:48 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Netflix is tanking, prayers to any holders.



Source

Federal Reserve officials are showing scant support for what would be the most drastic single policy tightening in almost three decades, though they’re on board with a series of still-large moves aimed at curbing an inflation spiral.

Chair Jerome Powell and other officials haven’t backed a suggestion by their St. Louis Fed colleague James Bullard to consider the first 75 basis-point hike since 1994. But their remarks -- which endorsed a 50 basis-point increase next month and at least one more such move to curb surging prices -- were still sufficiently hawkish to send U.S. stocks reeling.

“I would support at this point, given where the economy is, a 50 basis-point rise in May, and a few more to get to that 2.5%” level by the end of the year, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told CNBC on Friday afternoon, referring to the neutral rate that neither speeds up nor slows down growth. “Doing one outsized move in the funds rate doesn’t appear to me to be the right way to go. I would rather be more deliberative and more consistent.”

They also have high uncertainty on the persistence of inflation, which is running at the fastest pace since the early 1980s. The war in Ukraine and China’s coronavirus lockdowns remain unresolved and are likely to add to inflation pressures, though Fed officials aren’t sure how much or for how long.

Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Piper Sandler & Co., said a 75 basis-point hike will be among the alternatives policy makers consider in May “but with very little support.” If policy makers later think public expectations around the 2% inflation target are at risk of moving higher, then “it is reasonable.”

On April 21 2022 01:14 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Netflix is down past 37% now. Approaching the $200 mark.

Elon Musk is meeting with Twitter Inc. executives on Sunday as the social media company turns more receptive toward his $43 billion takeover offer, a person with knowledge of the matter said.

The meeting comes days after Musk revealed his financing plan for the unsolicited bid, which includes backing from Morgan Stanley and other financial institutions. Twitter is generally more open to discussing a deal than it had previously been, the person said, asking not to be identified discussing private information.

A spokesman for Twitter declined to comment.

The Sunday meeting was earlier reported by the Wall Street Journal, which said that Musk had met privately with several shareholders Friday to pitch his proposal. The newspaper also said that Musk had told Twitter Chairman Bret Taylor in recent days that he won’t adjust his $54.20-a-share offer for the company.

While Twitter has said it’s willing to discuss a deal, the board initially countered Musk’s proposal by enacting a shareholders’ rights plan known as a “poison pill.” The plan would make it more expensive for any investor, including Musk, to acquire stock beyond a 15% ownership stake.

Musk on Friday made a pitch to select shareholders in a number of video calls, with a focus on actively managed funds, according to the WSJ report. Twitter is still working on an estimate of its own value, the newspaper reported.

Since Musk launched his bid on April 14, shares of Twitter have climbed 6.7%. They’re still trading nearly 10% below his offer price, indicating lingering skepticism over the prospects of his acquisition bid.

On April 25 2022 05:55 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Tomorrow morning should be interesting.



Source

The social media company is working to hammer out terms of a transaction and could reach an agreement as soon as Monday if negotiations go smoothly, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. Musk is lining up partners for the acquisition and continues to speak to potential co-investors, one of the people said. The situation is fluid, and talks could drag on longer or fall apart.

Twitter’s board was negotiating with the billionaire Tesla Inc. chief executive officer on Sunday over terms of his unsolicited bid to buy Twitter for $54.20 per share, and talks continued overnight into the early hours of Monday, the people said. Shares of Twitter jumped 3.8% to $50.78 on Monday, still below Musk’s offer price, indicating lingering skepticism over the prospects of an acquisition succeeding, although analysts say it is becoming more likely.

On April 25 2022 05:10 FiWiFaKi wrote:


I disagree, if the index drops 25%, then sure, buying the index is often good.

But individual companies usually go up for a long time, or down for a long time. Like Netflix that has dropped 25%, and then another 35%. Especially tech companies that come and go. Tough to time the bottom.

Netflix seems like decent value when considering their cash flows, subscribe count, etc... But I think a lot of people are worried about their market share. As in, if they just become an original content producer (which they are way more inefficient with than say HBO), and remove all external content, then Netflix really doesn't offer much. The whole value of the service initially was an aggregator of content for a small monthly charge. Now it might go back to the cable model, just with many online streaming subscriptions instead of cable packages. I think that's the main concern anyway.