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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread | ||
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oBlade
United States6626 Posts
On August 01 2026 22:45 LightSpectra wrote: That was truly one of the most insane posts I've had the pleasure to read, from "there are billionaires on Medicaid" to "long COVID isn't real". There's a little bit of everything in there. There aren't billionaires on Medicaid. | ||
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Billyboy
2605 Posts
On August 01 2026 23:46 Geiko wrote: So anyway, in a shocking turn of events, it turns out that the damage to the reflecting pool was not due to vandals but due to "a flawed installation by the contractor and a rush to finish the project in time" according to the DOJ. Not gonna lie I was really hoping from some pictures of those ninjas with boxcutters. What extremely shocking information. I bet oBlades confidence in the administration is totally shaken since he was just bamboozeled for the 624th time this term. | ||
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LightSpectra
United States3410 Posts
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Sermokala
United States14218 Posts
Its literally conservatives wanting a bigger government and more bloated budgets, the only answer that works is that its about cruelty and hatred of the poor. | ||
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dyhb
United States829 Posts
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oBlade
United States6626 Posts
On August 02 2026 13:20 Sermokala wrote: I don't know if oblade is aware of this but enforceing means testing and work testing costs money. Everything costs money. Having welfare costs more money than not having it. This is not an argument you believe in. Having a DMV and administering driving tests costs more money than just giving everyone a free driver's license and waiting to see if they crash. I like to be optimistic and assume you're not so far gone as to think that would be a good idea. On August 02 2026 13:20 Sermokala wrote: There is no study that says that the money spent on paperwork, investigation, and enforcement is less than the ammount saved. All it does is lower the dignity of the people who need to apply and make it harder for them to get the services they need. How do you propose to measure how much food stamps, housing, financial aid, and disability people should get without doing needs testing? Just let everyone take whatever they want from the federal tip jar until it's dry, because checking whether they need it or not is mean? On August 02 2026 13:20 Sermokala wrote: Its literally conservatives wanting a bigger government and more bloated budgets, the only answer that works is that its about cruelty and hatred of the poor. Tell me the upper limit of how much money you would send someone with no evidence that they needed it. | ||
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Jankisa
Croatia1844 Posts
On August 02 2026 15:34 oBlade wrote: Everything costs money. Having welfare costs more money than not having it. This is not an argument you believe in. Having a DMV and administering driving tests costs more money than just giving everyone a free driver's license and waiting to see if they crash. I like to be optimistic and assume you're not so far gone as to think that would be a good idea. How do you propose to measure how much food stamps, housing, financial aid, and disability people should get without doing needs testing? Just let everyone take whatever they want from the federal tip jar until it's dry, because checking whether they need it or not is mean? Tell me the upper limit of how much money you would send someone with no evidence that they needed it. Who won the 2020 election? | ||
KwarK
United States44398 Posts
This is the permanent damage being done that Trump and his supporters refuse to acknowledge. Every human interaction short of murder etc. requires a degree of cooperation. Even forcing someone to do something at gun point, they still need to believe you’re not going to kill them immediately afterwards. With things like the JCPOA you could maybe argue that there’s limited reliability between changing administrations. It’s a terrible argument, a gentleman’s agreement to honour previous agreements helps you too because you want your agreements honoured by the next guy (as Biden did with Trump’s surrender to the Taliban) but whatever. But Trump not only shits all over his own prior agreements, he demonstrates no understanding that they were even his. It’s truly Orwellian, he seems to really believe that they were agreed to by some other idiot. His relationship with the truth is that of a schizophrenic, we see him angrily tweeting at the justice department for their inability to find evidence for what he knows to be true. The truth is whatever he decides it to be on a given day and the world is required to reshape itself around that. Let’s say Iran really did want to surrender. Let’s say they wanted to offer concessions, they’d recognize Israel and stop funding proxies and he’d remove sanctions. A pretty clear US victory in that hypothetical. They can’t actually do that. They can’t get an agreement on those terms to stick. There’s nobody they can negotiate with that can control Trump and get him to honour the sanctions removal, not even Trump himself. Without an agreement this can only be resolved through time and the exchange of missiles. A game of what is more combustible, an oil refinery or a mountain. A game of who sinks first between a floating metal box filled with oil and a Toyota hilux parked in a copse of trees. One side will eventually just stop and cede the maximalist demands of the other. Maximalist demands because that’s what happens if you just stop fighting, maximalist demands because you can’t compromise if you can’t be trusted. When that happens there’s not really any cap on the geopolitical loss for the US. The withdrawal from strategic bases in the Gulf, the loss of free navigation of waterways, the loss of the petrodollar, the loss of US led global security frameworks, and so forth. A ground invasion would actually be the less bad thing at this point, despite the ruinous cost and American dead. But it’s politically impossible and has lost a lot of its leverage value. Some months ago I argued that there was a good way of doing this. Start building up ground forces in the region, stockpiling interceptors, filling the SPR, working on coalition building, increasing the supply of oil elsewhere, telling China/Japan to prepare for disruption etc. In that world where you’re clearly telegraphing an upcoming regime change invasion you have a lot of leverage over Iran. You can anchor negotiations at “we’re coming in and we’re going to hang you all” and work backwards from there. And while talks are ongoing they can’t close the strait until you actually cross the border. Reports on the February negotiations from the Qatari mediators are pretty clear that Iran was, at that time, willing to make a lot of significant concessions including the surrender of enriched uranium. Maximalist US demands at that point in the context of US army groups deployed on the border would have had a lot more weight and if negotiations broke down then occupation could have begun. With a credible threat and credible negotiators an occupation could still have been averted. + Show Spoiler + On April 09 2026 01:13 KwarK wrote: The fundamental issue here is one of Trump’s leadership. He has completely failed to make the case for war, both internationally and at home. The entirely worthwhile goal of the end of IRGC rule in Iran was only going to be achieved by a land invasion, something which the US is absolutely capable of doing. The superiority of US forces is not a question here, we saw that in the air war and the rescue operation. If the US puts a million men in Iraq then the writing is on the wall. And at that point the IRGC feels real pressure. They know they’re going to end up hanged in the town square for the January massacres. There’s no strategy that can save them there, in a pure test of arms they lose, and they lose absolutely. In that scenario they can’t leverage the strait or missiles or play for time, they’re deeply unpopular and without a local monopoly of force they cease to exist. They can impose costs on the world but America has already gone all in, imposing costs and saying you’ll remove them under certain conditions is a negotiating position that doesn’t work against an all in adversary. But that’s not what happened. Not only has a substantial US force not crossed into Iran, mobilization of one hasn’t started. The IRGC know that there’s no military threat, that they just need to focus on internal security and play for time with imposing costs on the world. The US has outlined their win condition for them, survive and wait. And at this point, after all that has happened, after all the threats and declarations of victory, I think it is too late for Trump to pivot to a real plan. It’s too late to mobilize and commit to a full ground war. Too many countries have been alienated, too much economic pain has been inflicted, the message is lost. And that’s why this is solely a crisis of US leadership. In January after the massacres the case was right there, waiting to be made. You fill the strategic oil reserves, both domestically and abroad in China/Japan etc. You keep the public message laser focused on those massacres, you know the strait will be closed, you don’t care, your mission is just, you’re prepared to pay the cost. The closure isn’t something Iran is doing in response to Israeli strikes, Israel isn’t even involved, this is something the IRGC is doing in an attempt to escape accountability for their crimes against the people of Iran. You flood the region with interceptors, you redeploy naval assets, both yours and those of your coalition partners (because you built a coalition this time). And then, after months of prep, you start moving troops to Iraq. Nothing to do with nuclear enrichment (dealt with in 2025) or Hezbollah (being an Israeli proxy wins you no friends). The message is clear and has been repeated daily for months, you’re not at war with the people of Iran, you’re prosecuting the IRGC for crimes against humanity. And you will succeed, it’s not in doubt, the US military is deployed for full occupation. There’s only 20 million barrels coming out the gulf daily, the world could easily stomach 6 months of interdiction with filled up storage. The US leads that, releasing oil and gas from storage at previous prices, but Japan etc. have substantial storage capability as well. IRGC loyalists know that it’s over and flee to Russia because it’s not like they’re going to defeat the US Army. But none of that happened. Trump spent the months after the January massacres threatening to invade NATO and then announced war with Iran at random one evening. Since then he has insulted every US ally, declared this to be a religious campaign of genocide that nobody can get behind, spiked costs for people all around the world, and has yet to make any kind of credible threat against the IRGC regime itself. The US people don’t even know why they’re at war, they don’t believe in it, and given this is a war against an objectively evil regime that’s an absurd failure. This is the worst of all timelines, Trump is the one US President who could start a war with Iran with the full resources of the US military, economy, and alliance system behind him and then lose the fucking thing. But the threats have no leverage anymore and the offers have no confidence. There’s no way out. This’ll continue until Trump loses his hold on power and then it’ll just stop in line with Iran’s maximalist demands because what else is there. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5890 Posts
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LightSpectra
United States3410 Posts
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micronesia
United States24805 Posts
On August 02 2026 23:32 LightSpectra wrote: What happens if Trump and co. decide to just blow up Iran's energy and water infrastructure and create the worst humanitarian disaster in history because they can't assassinate Khameini? Trump's approval rating goes down by 0.01 points. | ||
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KwarK
United States44398 Posts
On August 02 2026 23:32 LightSpectra wrote: What happens if Trump and co. decide to just blow up Iran's energy and water infrastructure and create the worst humanitarian disaster in history because they can't assassinate Khameini? A full MAD scenario? A hundred million deaths across the Gulf? The Gulf states seem to believe Iran’s threats to their infrastructure are highly credible so I see no reason to disbelieve them. | ||
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KT_Elwood
Germany1202 Posts
"I am not gonna attack, we have some sort of deal, Straight is open" Iran: "The fuck it is." Sunday before markets open "We think about massive warcrimes (attacking civilian infrastructure that is vital to survival of the population)" | ||
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Billyboy
2605 Posts
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KT_Elwood
Germany1202 Posts
AI-Corps are copying the Trump style though. "Trump says...." gets reactions like he actually can DO those things he says. While the things he DOES don't get the same coverage. (Hiding the Epstein files, accepting bribes via crypto..) "Oh nooo our AI went rogue on itself and attacked .. somebody!" Oh no bad POTENT puppy.. it's so POTENT.. buy the AI! (Spends 5000 Trillion dollars on RAM.. isn't making anything.. yet...) | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22675 Posts
On August 02 2026 23:32 LightSpectra wrote: Iran retaliates like they have repeatedly said they would by striking oil, energy and water infrastructure of everyone around them, drone and missile intercepts fail because we know the US is basically out of patriot missiles. Then the entire middle east turns into a real life rendition of a post apocalyptic earth.What happens if Trump and co. decide to just blow up Iran's energy and water infrastructure and create the worst humanitarian disaster in history because they can't assassinate Khameini? Couple of million people die, hundreds of million refugees overwhelm the countries outside Iran's strike range and we all curse the US for another 2 generations. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States24418 Posts
On August 03 2026 01:08 Gorsameth wrote: + Show Spoiler + Iran retaliates like they have repeatedly said they would by striking oil, energy and water infrastructure of everyone around them, drone and missile intercepts fail because we know the US is basically out of patriot missiles. Then the entire middle east turns into a real life rendition of a post apocalyptic earth. Couple of million people die, hundreds of million refugees overwhelm the countries outside Iran's strike range and I believe you mean "suck the US's farts like its butthole is a scuba regulator" | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17861 Posts
On August 02 2026 22:11 KwarK wrote: Some months ago I argued that there was a good way of doing this. Start building up ground forces in the region, stockpiling interceptors, filling the SPR, working on coalition building, increasing the supply of oil elsewhere, telling China/Japan to prepare for disruption etc. In that world where you’re clearly telegraphing an upcoming regime change invasion you have a lot of leverage over Iran. You can anchor negotiations at “we’re coming in and we’re going to hang you all” and work backwards from there. And while talks are ongoing they can’t close the strait until you actually cross the border. Reports on the February negotiations from the Qatari mediators are pretty clear that Iran was, at that time, willing to make a lot of significant concessions including the surrender of enriched uranium. Maximalist US demands at that point in the context of US army groups deployed on the border would have had a lot more weight and if negotiations broke down then occupation could have begun. With a credible threat and credible negotiators an occupation could still have been averted. I think this is strictly impossible. To invade Iran you'd have to cross mountains and/or deserts and it's the worst possible thing for the attacking force. Can't really air-drop troops either because they'd be completely cut off from any supplies or rescue. Aside from just geography there's also the problem that - unlike US - Iran has been preparing for this war for many years and - again, unlike US - because of their relationship with Russia they have actually taken some lessons from the war in Ukraine. And the lessons from Ukraine are that smaller country can now effectively fight off much bigger and richer aggressor, basically upending the entire military superpower paradigm. Another thing is that the military doctrine of old is now completely obsolete. US (and other NATO) troops are training to operate in platoons, battalions etc., how to build tents and camps, set up sentries, that the killzone is around 1km from the front so you set up 5km back and so on. The reality of the current drone warfare is that units no longer operate in squads but in 2 or 4 man spread out groups, only gathering for a very brief moments to relay orders/tactical info and immediately disperse afterwards. Each such team is backed by 3 drone squads and an artillery unit. Killzone at the front now extends to 30km+ and your supplies can be hit up to 150km behind the frontline. If a soldier gets wounded in the field he needs to wait hours or days for rescue to arrive because nothing can be close enough and any larger gathering of troops or supplies within 100+km is going to get obliterated. Russia can't advance on Ukraine in a much more favorable terrain than one in Iran - what makes you think US would be able to make any advancements in more unfavorable terrain? As far as notifying China/Japan about preparing for shortages, this is a moot point. China has single-handedly saved the world from fuel shock by cutting its oil imports in half when the strait got closed. If not for that we'd already be wading in shit up to our chins. In any case, US fucked up big time with their Iran SMO. | ||
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KwarK
United States44398 Posts
On August 03 2026 15:51 Manit0u wrote: I think this is strictly impossible. To invade Iran you'd have to cross mountains and/or deserts and it's the worst possible thing for the attacking force. Can't really air-drop troops either because they'd be completely cut off from any supplies or rescue. Aside from just geography there's also the problem that - unlike US - Iran has been preparing for this war for many years and - again, unlike US - because of their relationship with Russia they have actually taken some lessons from the war in Ukraine. And the lessons from Ukraine are that smaller country can now effectively fight off much bigger and richer aggressor, basically upending the entire military superpower paradigm. Another thing is that the military doctrine of old is now completely obsolete. US (and other NATO) troops are training to operate in platoons, battalions etc., how to build tents and camps, set up sentries, that the killzone is around 1km from the front so you set up 5km back and so on. The reality of the current drone warfare is that units no longer operate in squads but in 2 or 4 man spread out groups, only gathering for a very brief moments to relay orders/tactical info and immediately disperse afterwards. Each such team is backed by 3 drone squads and an artillery unit. Killzone at the front now extends to 30km+ and your supplies can be hit up to 150km behind the frontline. If a soldier gets wounded in the field he needs to wait hours or days for rescue to arrive because nothing can be close enough and any larger gathering of troops or supplies within 100+km is going to get obliterated. Russia can't advance on Ukraine in a much more favorable terrain than one in Iran - what makes you think US would be able to make any advancements in more unfavorable terrain? As far as notifying China/Japan about preparing for shortages, this is a moot point. China has single-handedly saved the world from fuel shock by cutting its oil imports in half when the strait got closed. If not for that we'd already be wading in shit up to our chins. In any case, US fucked up big time with their Iran SMO. You disagreed with me last time I said this and I said my piece then. Iran is an organized, centralized, bureaucratic state with an extremely unpopular repressive government. When the centres of power fall the state will collapse. Geography aside it is an absolutely perfect candidate for a regime change and reconstruction, it'll be like Japan/Germany post WW2. And no amount of geography will let Iran defeat the US army when it has a defined military objective to take. It'd be bloody for the 3 weeks it'd take but the result wouldn't be uncertain. Every time we've seen the Iranian military take on the US military so far in this war we've seen an absolute qualitative and quantitative US advantage translate into incredibly lopsided exchanges. Iran's military victories have been things like the US leaving incredibly expensive planes out in the open. The idea that if Russia can't defeat an Ukraine that has US/European backing then clearly the US can't defeat Iran with Russian backing is laughable. The US is not Russia. Iran is not Ukraine. Marines took Iwo Jima, they can handle a desert if you have enough purple hearts in inventory. US political leadership is a joke but there’s no indication that the military was hollowed out like Russia’s was. | ||
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PoulsenB
Poland7763 Posts
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