US Politics Mega-thread - Page 5888

On April 09 2026 01:13 KwarK wrote:
The fundamental issue here is one of Trump’s leadership. He has completely failed to make the case for war, both internationally and at home. The entirely worthwhile goal of the end of IRGC rule in Iran was only going to be achieved by a land invasion, something which the US is absolutely capable of doing. The superiority of US forces is not a question here, we saw that in the air war and the rescue operation. If the US puts a million men in Iraq then the writing is on the wall.

And at that point the IRGC feels real pressure. They know they’re going to end up hanged in the town square for the January massacres. There’s no strategy that can save them there, in a pure test of arms they lose, and they lose absolutely. In that scenario they can’t leverage the strait or missiles or play for time, they’re deeply unpopular and without a local monopoly of force they cease to exist. They can impose costs on the world but America has already gone all in, imposing costs and saying you’ll remove them under certain conditions is a negotiating position that doesn’t work against an all in adversary.

But that’s not what happened. Not only has a substantial US force not crossed into Iran, mobilization of one hasn’t started. The IRGC know that there’s no military threat, that they just need to focus on internal security and play for time with imposing costs on the world. The US has outlined their win condition for them, survive and wait.

And at this point, after all that has happened, after all the threats and declarations of victory, I think it is too late for Trump to pivot to a real plan. It’s too late to mobilize and commit to a full ground war. Too many countries have been alienated, too much economic pain has been inflicted, the message is lost.

And that’s why this is solely a crisis of US leadership. In January after the massacres the case was right there, waiting to be made. You fill the strategic oil reserves, both domestically and abroad in China/Japan etc. You keep the public message laser focused on those massacres, you know the strait will be closed, you don’t care, your mission is just, you’re prepared to pay the cost. The closure isn’t something Iran is doing in response to Israeli strikes, Israel isn’t even involved, this is something the IRGC is doing in an attempt to escape accountability for their crimes against the people of Iran. You flood the region with interceptors, you redeploy naval assets, both yours and those of your coalition partners (because you built a coalition this time). And then, after months of prep, you start moving troops to Iraq.

Nothing to do with nuclear enrichment (dealt with in 2025) or Hezbollah (being an Israeli proxy wins you no friends). The message is clear and has been repeated daily for months, you’re not at war with the people of Iran, you’re prosecuting the IRGC for crimes against humanity. And you will succeed, it’s not in doubt, the US military is deployed for full occupation. There’s only 20 million barrels coming out the gulf daily, the world could easily stomach 6 months of interdiction with filled up storage. The US leads that, releasing oil and gas from storage at previous prices, but Japan etc. have substantial storage capability as well. IRGC loyalists know that it’s over and flee to Russia because it’s not like they’re going to defeat the US Army.

But none of that happened. Trump spent the months after the January massacres threatening to invade NATO and then announced war with Iran at random one evening. Since then he has insulted every US ally, declared this to be a religious campaign of genocide that nobody can get behind, spiked costs for people all around the world, and has yet to make any kind of credible threat against the IRGC regime itself. The US people don’t even know why they’re at war, they don’t believe in it, and given this is a war against an objectively evil regime that’s an absurd failure. This is the worst of all timelines, Trump is the one US President who could start a war with Iran with the full resources of the US military, economy, and alliance system behind him and then lose the fucking thing.