EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 4243
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NovaTheFeared
United States7222 Posts
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Uldridge
Belgium4751 Posts
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WombaT
Northern Ireland25010 Posts
On July 03 2024 14:24 NovaTheFeared wrote: Big movement in the prediction markets today new all time high Biden to drop out: ~60% and Kamala to be Dem nominee surging to about 40%. The fix may be in. I mean the VP is meant for this exact kind of scenario, there’s more legitimacy there for sure. I think they may have a worse shot of winning with Kamala Harris than sticking with Biden though. For all he’s clearly on the decline, he is declining in attributes he had in the first place. That kind of everyman charm, ability to work across the aisle, plus a pretty substantial body of work. Competence is one thing but I don’t think Harris has ever been described as particularly likeable. And she’s had the least prominent Vice Presidency, certainly that I can recall anyway, so she hasn’t really done the groundwork that could have ideally set her up to take over. I felt at the time Biden missed a trick by not making a progressive his VP, give a bit of an olive branch of a gesture to the left of the party/populace. Exacerbated over time by whatever Harris was meant to bring to the table, I haven’t seen much of it. Parachuting A N Other is fraught with many issues too, it may be a better avenue. So long as Trump, and Trump specifically doesn’t get back into the White House. He’s not literally Hitler but he’s bloody dangerous and a general malign influence on wider politics. | ||
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BlackJack
United States10430 Posts
On July 03 2024 14:24 NovaTheFeared wrote: Big movement in the prediction markets today new all time high Biden to drop out: ~60% and Kamala to be Dem nominee surging to about 40%. The fix may be in. That’s a whole other problem. Kamala is terribly unpopular herself. But if you try to put someone like Newsom in then people will ask why a white man is skipping ahead of her as the rightful heir. | ||
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NovaTheFeared
United States7222 Posts
On July 03 2024 15:32 BlackJack wrote: That’s a whole other problem. Kamala is terribly unpopular herself. But if you try to put someone like Newsom in then people will ask why a white man is skipping ahead of her as the rightful heir. They could have done better if the DNC allowed a real primary, but as played this is probably the most sensible path available. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9607 Posts
On July 03 2024 15:32 BlackJack wrote: That’s a whole other problem. Kamala is terribly unpopular herself. But if you try to put someone like Newsom in then people will ask why a white man is skipping ahead of her as the rightful heir. You just answered the question. The Dems need to be ruthless and try and get themselves elected against the odds. They don't really have the time to be avoiding difficult questions. If people will ask why a white man, if that's what they end up on, is skipping ahead of Kamala, the answer is that she's terribly unpopular. There will be a fuss and lots of accusations but it'll only last a news cycle or two. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21633 Posts
On July 03 2024 12:34 GreenHorizons wrote: Is there any reason for Michelle beyond 'Obama'?Based on the first round of polls Michelle Obama is the best option. www.reuters.com Harris is the next best being within the margin of error at least. Seeming increasingly clear Biden is out, but Democrats have no idea how they are going to unite behind anyone other than Biden. Michelle also really doesn't want to do it, but she'd totally do it if she could make Hillary speak at her Inauguration and then like after a week/month/year of doing fun president stuff she just gave it to her VP. The American answer to everything. Lets start another dynasty, because they always work out so well. | ||
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Velr
Switzerland10683 Posts
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Acteis
2 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States23160 Posts
On July 03 2024 18:14 Gorsameth wrote: Is there any reason for Michelle beyond 'Obama'? The American answer to everything. Lets start another dynasty, because they always work out so well. Probably have to ask Democrats/Independents, but I'd guess yeah. Also Bernie's old, otherwise he's the most popular active politician Democrats have on/near their roster. | ||
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EnDeR_
Spain2640 Posts
On July 03 2024 15:27 Uldridge wrote: Imagine your president wakes up at 11 and needs a nap every day. Just so he can stay awake and focused. Yeah, no. Sad thing is that no one pressed him on his age four years ago. I hope this sets a precedent so all the old bags can get put into retirement. If I recall correctly, Trump spent most of the day during his presidency just watching TV. Although I admit I did not fact check that when I read it somewhere, but it felt true at the time. | ||
KwarK
United States42524 Posts
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States44184 Posts
On July 03 2024 23:57 EnDeR_ wrote: If I recall correctly, Trump spent most of the day during his presidency just watching TV. Although I admit I did not fact check that when I read it somewhere, but it felt true at the time. He played a lot of golf and shitposted on social media a lot too. | ||
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Aethlius
3 Posts
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KT_Elwood
Germany906 Posts
How does the SCOTUS ruling about immunity one-sidedly aid Trump? I get that that will help with all his past crimes.. and everyone expects him to comit future crimes as well..BUT:.. Can't Biden just use this power to deter trump from ...well basicly living in the US as a traitor? | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21633 Posts
On July 04 2024 01:22 KT_Elwood wrote: It doesn't help Trump because Trumps past crimes were not Presidential acts.I have a question: How does the SCOTUS ruling about immunity one-sidedly aid Trump? I get that that will help with all his past crimes.. and everyone expects him to comit future crimes as well..BUT:.. Can't Biden just use this power to deter trump from ...well basicly living in the US as a traitor? | ||
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KwarK
United States42524 Posts
On July 04 2024 01:22 KT_Elwood wrote: I have a question: How does the SCOTUS ruling about immunity one-sidedly aid Trump? I get that that will help with all his past crimes.. and everyone expects him to comit future crimes as well..BUT:.. Can't Biden just use this power to deter trump from ...well basicly living in the US as a traitor? In theory, maybe. In practice, no. SCOTUS have given immunity for official acts without defining what official acts are which gives them carte blanche to decide what is and is not legal for a President to do. There's also the issue of whether Biden wants to be the one to kick off the civil unrest. Democracy isn't necessarily the best system for good or effective government but it does work as a justification for a social contract where we don't bomb each other and where there is food on shelves. Even when it doesn't work for protecting minorities or ensuring equal justice under the law or preventing corruption in high office the belief in democracy still has value. It keeps us from shooting each other so much. If the people elect Trump under the rules of the system then that's an awful outcome, but not necessarily a worse outcome than if Biden were to destroy the system entirely. He could use the new ruling to lock Trump up and it may be legally defensible but it could also be the trigger for a wider breakdown of the social contract that prevents fighting in the streets. Absolutists will insist that there can be no peace without justice and that an unjust order must be torn down but realists recognize that there is a grey area. You don't shoot up city hall on day 1 over an unjust parking ticket because that's simply not a practical or proportionate response that is likely to make anything better. There's a price to disorder. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23160 Posts
On July 04 2024 01:32 Gorsameth wrote: Well it has put his sentencing in question.It doesn't help Trump because Trumps past crimes were not Presidential acts. Hours after the Supreme Court's decision was released, Trump's attorneys asked the court to allow them to file a motion seeking to overturn the verdict in the case by July 10. Prosecutors from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office said that they were not opposed to delaying sentencing until the issue is resolved, and asked for a deadline of July 24 to respond to the defense's motion. In a brief response, Merchan approved the proposed schedule and wrote that he'll render a decision on Trump's motion on Sept. 6. He set a new sentencing date of Sept. 18, "if such is still necessary." www.cbsnews.com That seems helpful. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21633 Posts
Its buying time, which was all the SC needed to do. | ||
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oBlade
United States5524 Posts
On July 03 2024 18:14 Gorsameth wrote: Is there any reason for Michelle beyond 'Obama'? The American answer to everything. Lets start another dynasty, because they always work out so well. You should thank the guy who obliterated the idea of dynasties in 2016. | ||
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