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On February 12 2024 00:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2024 23:59 Branch.AUT wrote:On February 11 2024 23:26 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 11 2024 18:36 Branch.AUT wrote:On February 11 2024 16:54 BlackJack wrote:
I think most people get that Biden is "barely there" and clearly lacking the acumen to perform his duties. Even the hardcore party loyalists that choose to remain blind to that fact also probably realize he won't make it another 4 years on his current trajectory. I just don't think it really matters. As long as you agree with the policies that come from the Biden White House does it matter if the policies are coming from Joe himself or from a team of staffers/advisors/handlers or whatever. Similar to when Diane Feinstein returned to the Senate and a staff had to tell her "Just say aye" to cast a vote, as long as she keeps voting the way you want it's probably not the end of the world to carry on the Weekend at Bernies charade.
I think a bigger issue for Democrats right now is they are hemorrhaging voters from two of their largest voting coalitions, blacks and hispanics. I think they are down something like 20 points among black voters since 2020. That's a pretty big swing. I think there's a multitude of reasons for that that I won't get into right now. But in general the Republican base seems to be a lot more monolithic, whereas the Democrat base is much more fractured and may have groups with opposite goals so taking credit for something one group supports might cause blowback from another group. You pull a whole lot of "statistics" and "insider knowledge" out of thin air. All the while using influential and authoritative language. Are you a real person, or just an opinion making bot? This article appears to support BJ's assertion of a 20-point drop among black voters: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/shows/meetthepress/blog/rcna126124 But I agree with you that posting the sources alongside the initial claims would be nice. Thats a blog. The 20 percent drop is in approval rating - a made up stat that has no meaning. In literally the next paragraph this blog says 69% would vote biden. No mention of any change since last election. Neither of these two claims are sourced in this blog. Did you even click the link before pasting a link to this blog? That's an NBC news article from an NBC poll lol. For someone who wrote "blog" four times, you apparently didn't realize that the sources are actual news articles and polls. Now, you may think that NBC isn't reputable, or that polls aren't reputable, but at least read the reference and information before making a response like that. The site I linked was this: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/shows/meetthepress/blog/rcna126124 And the first two paragraphs say this: "Support from Black voters helped President Joe Biden secure the Democratic nomination and the presidency in 2020, but the latest NBC News poll shows Biden’s support among Black voters is waning. NBC News polling has found Biden’s net-approval rating among Black voters has dropped nearly 20 points over the course of this year, from plus-46 points throughout the year to plus-27 points this month. The latest survey finds 61% of Black voters approve of Biden, versus 34% who say they disapprove of the president." The first paragraph - where it says "the latest NBC News poll" - shows the actual poll. Click it and read what's given to you, especially since you asked for it: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-bidens-standing-hits-new-lows-israel-hamas-war-rcna125251 If you don't believe one's approval rating has any practical use whatsoever, then okay. You can probably start a productive conversation that BJ's claim doesn't represent the big picture (e.g., one could ask if lack of approval always translates to an equal lack of votes), or maybe that BJ's statements lack context, but you seem pretty aggressive at the moment, calling people bots and whatnot. I'm not interested in further engagement, right now.
Congratulations, you copy + pasted those paragraphs really well! Read the next one too! Or dont. Whatever.
Just keep in mind, that what someone writes on their blog, no matter where it's hosted, is not journalism. Doesn't have editorial oversight. Doesn't need to follow any self imposed journalistic integrity.
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On February 12 2024 02:17 Branch.AUT wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2024 00:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 11 2024 23:59 Branch.AUT wrote:On February 11 2024 23:26 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 11 2024 18:36 Branch.AUT wrote:On February 11 2024 16:54 BlackJack wrote:
I think most people get that Biden is "barely there" and clearly lacking the acumen to perform his duties. Even the hardcore party loyalists that choose to remain blind to that fact also probably realize he won't make it another 4 years on his current trajectory. I just don't think it really matters. As long as you agree with the policies that come from the Biden White House does it matter if the policies are coming from Joe himself or from a team of staffers/advisors/handlers or whatever. Similar to when Diane Feinstein returned to the Senate and a staff had to tell her "Just say aye" to cast a vote, as long as she keeps voting the way you want it's probably not the end of the world to carry on the Weekend at Bernies charade.
I think a bigger issue for Democrats right now is they are hemorrhaging voters from two of their largest voting coalitions, blacks and hispanics. I think they are down something like 20 points among black voters since 2020. That's a pretty big swing. I think there's a multitude of reasons for that that I won't get into right now. But in general the Republican base seems to be a lot more monolithic, whereas the Democrat base is much more fractured and may have groups with opposite goals so taking credit for something one group supports might cause blowback from another group. You pull a whole lot of "statistics" and "insider knowledge" out of thin air. All the while using influential and authoritative language. Are you a real person, or just an opinion making bot? This article appears to support BJ's assertion of a 20-point drop among black voters: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/shows/meetthepress/blog/rcna126124 But I agree with you that posting the sources alongside the initial claims would be nice. Thats a blog. The 20 percent drop is in approval rating - a made up stat that has no meaning. In literally the next paragraph this blog says 69% would vote biden. No mention of any change since last election. Neither of these two claims are sourced in this blog. Did you even click the link before pasting a link to this blog? That's an NBC news article from an NBC poll lol. For someone who wrote "blog" four times, you apparently didn't realize that the sources are actual news articles and polls. Now, you may think that NBC isn't reputable, or that polls aren't reputable, but at least read the reference and information before making a response like that. The site I linked was this: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/shows/meetthepress/blog/rcna126124 And the first two paragraphs say this: "Support from Black voters helped President Joe Biden secure the Democratic nomination and the presidency in 2020, but the latest NBC News poll shows Biden’s support among Black voters is waning. NBC News polling has found Biden’s net-approval rating among Black voters has dropped nearly 20 points over the course of this year, from plus-46 points throughout the year to plus-27 points this month. The latest survey finds 61% of Black voters approve of Biden, versus 34% who say they disapprove of the president." The first paragraph - where it says "the latest NBC News poll" - shows the actual poll. Click it and read what's given to you, especially since you asked for it: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-bidens-standing-hits-new-lows-israel-hamas-war-rcna125251 If you don't believe one's approval rating has any practical use whatsoever, then okay. You can probably start a productive conversation that BJ's claim doesn't represent the big picture (e.g., one could ask if lack of approval always translates to an equal lack of votes), or maybe that BJ's statements lack context, but you seem pretty aggressive at the moment, calling people bots and whatnot. I'm not interested in further engagement, right now. Congratulations, you copy + pasted those paragraphs really well! Read the next one too! Or dont. Whatever. Just keep in mind, that what someone writes on their blog, no matter where it's hosted, is not journalism. Doesn't have editorial oversight. Doesn't need to follow any self imposed journalistic integrity.
Rejecting the original data or news articles just because someone eventually blogged about them (and even included the proper sources), is like rejecting statistics just because they appear in TL forum posts (even well-cited ones). You need to engage with the facts on their merits.
Did you want to talk about whether or not Biden has actually lost support among people of color, and how that might affect his chances in key swing states?
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On February 12 2024 00:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2024 00:44 WombaT wrote:
I’d be interested as to what’s causing that waning,
In the longer-term one would only expect that bleed to happen eventually. It’s not like there aren’t plenty of conservative black folks who are only really kept away from voting as such by the racism that still afflicts the GOP.
But that’s quite a swing in quite a short period of time. I'd be interested in hearing what's causing that waning too. I read some articles recently, where I tried to find specifics, but the best I could find was a general cooling attitude like this: "But for Woodbury, whose work focuses on Black Americans who are cynical about voting, the generation gap is the major concern. While younger Democrats of all races are more progressive and critical of Biden than their elders are, Woodbury says he's seen polling that shows it's "much more concentrated among Black voters." Part of the steep decline in young Black Americans' approval of Biden stems from the fact that their approval started out so high — it's "a higher bar to drop from," as Woodbury put it. "When I sit in focus groups with young Black voters and ask what [Democrats have] done to make their lives better, they're hard pressed to come up with an answer, despite this administration delivering on much of the Black agenda," Woodbury said. "That's the communication challenge that we have a year to overcome."" https://abcnews.go.com/538/biden-losing-support-people-color/story?id=105272263 That's just a focus group, so less useful than broader data, but articles like the above one make me think two general things: 1. Black support probably started artificially higher than usual, because Trump and conservatives were (are) so transparently, vocally racist (not caring about cops murdering Black victims, against kneeling for the National Anthem, denying that criminal justice inequity exists, trying to remove voting rights that disproportionately affect Black communities, etc.), and Biden's support has naturally decreased over time, now that the Black community is realizing that simply having Biden in the White House isn't enough to fix systemic racism in our country; 2. Biden either hasn't followed through on key issues for Black voters (in their opinion), or hasn't sufficiently communicated his accomplishments to Black voters to keep their support.
Yikes.
the Black community is realizing that simply having Biden in the White House isn't enough to fix systemic racism in our country Really?
There's a lot of factors at play. Black communities are diverse, though Democrats rarely grant them this reality as a result of their perpetual sense of entitlement to their votes. That said, Biden's support for cops and Israel certainly isn't helping.
Then on the other hand you have the undercurrent of hustle/grindset culture identifying that Democrats represent a peculiarly bastardized version of the US's underpinning capitalist mindset.
So Biden's bleeding Black people that have consistently voted ~90-10 Democrat in presidential elections for decades from both his left and right.
If I were to try to nail down the single biggest cause, it's the undeserved sense of entitlement from Democrats for Black voters' votes starting to catch up with the Democrat party. This is evident in the insistence from Democrats that it is a communication rather than substance issue.
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It's shaping up to be close, I doubt Trump would win in a landslide but all the data suggests he has a real shot. He's polling better now than he ever did in 2020. Dem over performance has a lot to so with Republican bleed among high propensity voters. A lot of dems haven't come to terms with the fact that their age old canard about highe turnout helping them is probably wrong by now. And presidential election years are higher turnour than midtems or specials. Abortion also over performs democrats at the ballot box so it's not clear how much of a boost the candidates will actually get.
Thst being said, I doubt election day shows a 20 shift among any group compared to 2020, but if dems did lose even 10 points off their margin wirh blacks it would be catastrophic (Hispanics are already becoming more competitive). They need those margins in states like MI, GA, and PA. But I think if Biden loses it's more likely because Trump wins back a bunch of white voters Biden managed to pull away from him in 2020. Though it could be close enough that maybe any factor could make the difference. Remember, Biden won the Electoral College swing states by fewer votes than Trump did in 2016 wirh more votes cast, and people like Biden less now than they did then...
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On February 12 2024 04:48 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2024 00:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 12 2024 00:44 WombaT wrote:
I’d be interested as to what’s causing that waning,
In the longer-term one would only expect that bleed to happen eventually. It’s not like there aren’t plenty of conservative black folks who are only really kept away from voting as such by the racism that still afflicts the GOP.
But that’s quite a swing in quite a short period of time. I'd be interested in hearing what's causing that waning too. I read some articles recently, where I tried to find specifics, but the best I could find was a general cooling attitude like this: "But for Woodbury, whose work focuses on Black Americans who are cynical about voting, the generation gap is the major concern. While younger Democrats of all races are more progressive and critical of Biden than their elders are, Woodbury says he's seen polling that shows it's "much more concentrated among Black voters." Part of the steep decline in young Black Americans' approval of Biden stems from the fact that their approval started out so high — it's "a higher bar to drop from," as Woodbury put it. "When I sit in focus groups with young Black voters and ask what [Democrats have] done to make their lives better, they're hard pressed to come up with an answer, despite this administration delivering on much of the Black agenda," Woodbury said. "That's the communication challenge that we have a year to overcome."" https://abcnews.go.com/538/biden-losing-support-people-color/story?id=105272263 That's just a focus group, so less useful than broader data, but articles like the above one make me think two general things: 1. Black support probably started artificially higher than usual, because Trump and conservatives were (are) so transparently, vocally racist (not caring about cops murdering Black victims, against kneeling for the National Anthem, denying that criminal justice inequity exists, trying to remove voting rights that disproportionately affect Black communities, etc.), and Biden's support has naturally decreased over time, now that the Black community is realizing that simply having Biden in the White House isn't enough to fix systemic racism in our country; 2. Biden either hasn't followed through on key issues for Black voters (in their opinion), or hasn't sufficiently communicated his accomplishments to Black voters to keep their support. Yikes. Show nested quote +the Black community is realizing that simply having Biden in the White House isn't enough to fix systemic racism in our country Really? There's a lot of factors at play. Black communities are diverse, though Democrats rarely grant them this reality as a result of their perpetual sense of entitlement to their votes. That said, Biden's support for cops and Israel certainly isn't helping. Then on the other hand you have the undercurrent of hustle/grindset culture identifying that Democrats represent a peculiarly bastardized version of the US's underpinning capitalist mindset. So Biden's bleeding Black people that have consistently voted ~90-10 Democrat in presidential elections for decades from both his left and right. If I were to try to nail down the single biggest cause, it's the undeserved sense of entitlement from Democrats for Black voters' votes starting to catch up with the Democrat party. This is evident in the insistence from Democrats that it is a communication rather than substance issue.
Thank you for sharing that extra context. Do you think if Democrats/Biden realized those core issues and improved their messaging on wanting to help, that would strengthen support from the Black community, even if Republicans stood in the way of passing meaningful legislation that could address those issues?
Also, could you reference the ~90-10 split? I found this source that isn't quite as extreme, although it's still very significant: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/
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On February 11 2024 18:36 Branch.AUT wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2024 16:54 BlackJack wrote:
I think most people get that Biden is "barely there" and clearly lacking the acumen to perform his duties. Even the hardcore party loyalists that choose to remain blind to that fact also probably realize he won't make it another 4 years on his current trajectory. I just don't think it really matters. As long as you agree with the policies that come from the Biden White House does it matter if the policies are coming from Joe himself or from a team of staffers/advisors/handlers or whatever. Similar to when Diane Feinstein returned to the Senate and a staff had to tell her "Just say aye" to cast a vote, as long as she keeps voting the way you want it's probably not the end of the world to carry on the Weekend at Bernies charade.
I think a bigger issue for Democrats right now is they are hemorrhaging voters from two of their largest voting coalitions, blacks and hispanics. I think they are down something like 20 points among black voters since 2020. That's a pretty big swing. I think there's a multitude of reasons for that that I won't get into right now. But in general the Republican base seems to be a lot more monolithic, whereas the Democrat base is much more fractured and may have groups with opposite goals so taking credit for something one group supports might cause blowback from another group. You pull a whole lot of "statistics" and "insider knowledge" out of thin air. All the while using influential and authoritative language. Are you a real person, or just an opinion making bot?
Insider knowledge? This is something I've heard maybe a dozen times from various sources over the past 6 months. I consider it common knowledge by now which is why I didn't both to include a source. Fortunately my creators programmed me to provide a source when prompted so here you go
Among Black Americans expressing a party preference, the Democratic lead over Republicans has dropped by almost 20% in only three years, according to the Gallup survey.
The Democratic lead among Hispanic adults and adults aged 18 to 29, meanwhile, also slid by almost the same degree, leaving the party with only a modest advantage.
On February 11 2024 23:59 Branch.AUT wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2024 23:26 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 11 2024 18:36 Branch.AUT wrote:On February 11 2024 16:54 BlackJack wrote:
I think most people get that Biden is "barely there" and clearly lacking the acumen to perform his duties. Even the hardcore party loyalists that choose to remain blind to that fact also probably realize he won't make it another 4 years on his current trajectory. I just don't think it really matters. As long as you agree with the policies that come from the Biden White House does it matter if the policies are coming from Joe himself or from a team of staffers/advisors/handlers or whatever. Similar to when Diane Feinstein returned to the Senate and a staff had to tell her "Just say aye" to cast a vote, as long as she keeps voting the way you want it's probably not the end of the world to carry on the Weekend at Bernies charade.
I think a bigger issue for Democrats right now is they are hemorrhaging voters from two of their largest voting coalitions, blacks and hispanics. I think they are down something like 20 points among black voters since 2020. That's a pretty big swing. I think there's a multitude of reasons for that that I won't get into right now. But in general the Republican base seems to be a lot more monolithic, whereas the Democrat base is much more fractured and may have groups with opposite goals so taking credit for something one group supports might cause blowback from another group. You pull a whole lot of "statistics" and "insider knowledge" out of thin air. All the while using influential and authoritative language. Are you a real person, or just an opinion making bot? This article appears to support BJ's assertion of a 20-point drop among black voters: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/shows/meetthepress/blog/rcna126124 But I agree with you that posting the sources alongside the initial claims would be nice. The 20 percent drop is in approval rating - a made up stat that has no meaning. In literally the next paragraph this blog says 69% would vote biden. No mention of any change since last election. Neither of these two claims are sourced in this blog.
Regardless if this source mentions whether a 69% vote for Biden would be a change from this last election, this is easily researchable information you can find on your own. The first thing google offers shows that Biden won 92% of the black vote in 2020. So even if you want to reject approval rating as meaningless and offer this 69% number instead, you're still offering a number that shows a 23 point decline.
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Its going to be a really werid campaign where we talk about each candidates weakness's more than their strengths. Obviously biden has done a lot for for his base but most seem wanting to ignore it more than anything. Black unemployment reached the lowest its ever been recorded at and a number of economy redefining bills went through to help the nation through the next few decades. Oddly enough his entire record has been ignored but the GH types have never been known for being happy about anything and Biden has been slow to cling onto the "dark Branden" image that people have been looking for more and more.
Trump on the other hand did a coup on his way out and is mired in court for all the crimes he did. He has never been this openly fascist and is signaling just how shitty he would be for the country more and more each day. I can't believe that the plan of rounding up millions of Hispanics, moving them into concentration camps, and mass deporting them to somewhere will be popular. At least I really hope that isn't popular with Hispanics. I would like to ask GH what message he thinks trump will deliver that will convince black people to vote for him. Biden didn't win in 2020 because people liked him but black people definitely was the reason why he won the nomination in the 2020 primary.
I think we'll see a lot more forming what the message is suppose to be for both campaigns after the state of the union. No one wants to burn out their system too early. Trump may approach a rather novel approach to the campaign of trying to play the same card Biden did in 2020 where he keeps himself out of the spotlight more than expected. Truth social may be burning through cash but a campaign could really justify keeping that pit burning in order to keep messaging to their base that would be negative if it spread to the general public. Meanwhile Biden will be stuck having to be out and about persuading people of a record they didn't promote while they were in office.
Either way I gotta say the election after this has to be better. Either Trump will be in jail on the crimes hes committed or either of them will be term limited and/or dead.
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It’s worth noting that Trump isn’t really the same guy he was in 2020 either. I don’t mean in terms of cognitive decline (although yes, that) but there was a period where a lot of Republicans had kind of abandoned him, including just about everybody who worked in his administration. The only people that stuck with him were the white nationalists, and given how much he’s always cared about unwavering loyalty, those are now the people he surrounds himself with. I mean, his campaign surrogates are promising that as soon as he enters office, he’s going to mobilize red state national guards to round up immigrants across the country and put them in camps. Outlandish as his rhetoric has always been, this really is a different color.
I’m not saying this to counter the “Biden might lose/Trump might win” arguments. I’m bored of those. It’s been obvious for like a year that he’ll be the Republican nominee, and a major party candidate always has a significant chance of winning. Assigning a percentage to it now is stupid considering it’s contingent on a million other questions we’re not actually discussing (what will the economy be like by November? What will the situation in Gaza be by then? How dependent is American public opinion on either of those things, or a million other issues?). So yes, his chances are significant, maybe >50%, but it’s not useful or interesting to keep focusing on that.
Might be worth discussing the *implications* of a Trump or Biden win. The latter is easy to picture, since we’ve just had almost 4 years of it and it seems unlikely to dramatically change because Biden can’t draw a clock or whatever. Trump, on the other hand…
I mean, forget everything else and just take his recent statements about supporting Putin’s invasion. In recent years countries around the world that have been eyeing their neighbors’ territory for decades have been increasingly deciding that now is their moment. Russia, Azerbaijan, Israel all seem to think the “international community” can’t do much to stop them. But US opposition is the biggest reason Russia has struggled in Ukraine, and American tolerance or support are the only reason that Azerbaijan or Israel can conduct their invasions. And at least in the latter case, the only plausible check on their continued atrocities would be if the US took a firm stand against it; no other nation is in a position to put the brakes on it.
What’s gonna happen in a world order with a new Trump administration at the helm? One that’s spent the last 8 years studying every check and balance and legal hurdle that stopped them from seizing total control the first time? That’s openly endorsing conquests like Putin’s and putting US support up for sale? A lot of Americans’ minds jump to Taiwan, but there’s a ton of protracted land disputes across the world ready to ignite if one side or the other thinks they have an edge and the consequences aren’t too dire. Instability at the top would prompt everyone to seek mutual defense pacts to regain safety, but that increases the likelihood any given dispute would escalate to something truly catastrophic and global.
I don’t think Biden’s done a good enough job using American power to discourage atrocities, but it’s hard to overstate the enormity of suffering an unstable world order could unleash upon the planet right now. Given all that it’s hard for me to care that Robert Hur got a bit out of pocket with his Special Counsel report, or w/e got everyone on this topic to begin with.
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On February 12 2024 05:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2024 04:48 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 12 2024 00:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 12 2024 00:44 WombaT wrote:
I’d be interested as to what’s causing that waning,
In the longer-term one would only expect that bleed to happen eventually. It’s not like there aren’t plenty of conservative black folks who are only really kept away from voting as such by the racism that still afflicts the GOP.
But that’s quite a swing in quite a short period of time. I'd be interested in hearing what's causing that waning too. I read some articles recently, where I tried to find specifics, but the best I could find was a general cooling attitude like this: "But for Woodbury, whose work focuses on Black Americans who are cynical about voting, the generation gap is the major concern. While younger Democrats of all races are more progressive and critical of Biden than their elders are, Woodbury says he's seen polling that shows it's "much more concentrated among Black voters." Part of the steep decline in young Black Americans' approval of Biden stems from the fact that their approval started out so high — it's "a higher bar to drop from," as Woodbury put it. "When I sit in focus groups with young Black voters and ask what [Democrats have] done to make their lives better, they're hard pressed to come up with an answer, despite this administration delivering on much of the Black agenda," Woodbury said. "That's the communication challenge that we have a year to overcome."" https://abcnews.go.com/538/biden-losing-support-people-color/story?id=105272263 That's just a focus group, so less useful than broader data, but articles like the above one make me think two general things: 1. Black support probably started artificially higher than usual, because Trump and conservatives were (are) so transparently, vocally racist (not caring about cops murdering Black victims, against kneeling for the National Anthem, denying that criminal justice inequity exists, trying to remove voting rights that disproportionately affect Black communities, etc.), and Biden's support has naturally decreased over time, now that the Black community is realizing that simply having Biden in the White House isn't enough to fix systemic racism in our country; 2. Biden either hasn't followed through on key issues for Black voters (in their opinion), or hasn't sufficiently communicated his accomplishments to Black voters to keep their support. Yikes. the Black community is realizing that simply having Biden in the White House isn't enough to fix systemic racism in our country Really? There's a lot of factors at play. Black communities are diverse, though Democrats rarely grant them this reality as a result of their perpetual sense of entitlement to their votes. That said, Biden's support for cops and Israel certainly isn't helping. Then on the other hand you have the undercurrent of hustle/grindset culture identifying that Democrats represent a peculiarly bastardized version of the US's underpinning capitalist mindset. So Biden's bleeding Black people that have consistently voted ~90-10 Democrat in presidential elections for decades from both his left and right. If I were to try to nail down the single biggest cause, it's the undeserved sense of entitlement from Democrats for Black voters' votes starting to catch up with the Democrat party. This is evident in the insistence from Democrats that it is a communication rather than substance issue. Thank you for sharing that extra context. Do you think if Democrats/Biden realized those core issues and improved their messaging on wanting to help, that would strengthen support from the Black community, even if Republicans stood in the way of passing meaningful legislation that could address those issues? Also, could you reference the ~90-10 split? I found this source that isn't quite as extreme, although it's still very significant: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/
It's not a messaging problem (and I find the insistence it is patronizing, like the "Biden didn't solve systemic racism" line), it's the sense of entitlement to Black votes with decades of variations on "what are you going to do, vote for the Republican!?" problem.
This is 2000, but you can just change the year in the url.
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On February 12 2024 06:30 Sermokala wrote:
Its going to be a really werid campaign where we talk about each candidates weakness's more than their strengths. Obviously biden has done a lot for for his base but most seem wanting to ignore it more than anything. Black unemployment reached the lowest its ever been recorded at and a number of economy redefining bills went through to help the nation through the next few decades. Oddly enough his entire record has been ignored but the GH types have never been known for being happy about anything and Biden has been slow to cling onto the "dark Branden" image that people have been looking for more and more.
Trump on the other hand did a coup on his way out and is mired in court for all the crimes he did. He has never been this openly fascist and is signaling just how shitty he would be for the country more and more each day. I can't believe that the plan of rounding up millions of Hispanics, moving them into concentration camps, and mass deporting them to somewhere will be popular. At least I really hope that isn't popular with Hispanics. I would like to ask GH what message he thinks trump will deliver that will convince black people to vote for him. Biden didn't win in 2020 because people liked him but black people definitely was the reason why he won the nomination in the 2020 primary.
I think we'll see a lot more forming what the message is suppose to be for both campaigns after the state of the union. No one wants to burn out their system too early. Trump may approach a rather novel approach to the campaign of trying to play the same card Biden did in 2020 where he keeps himself out of the spotlight more than expected. Truth social may be burning through cash but a campaign could really justify keeping that pit burning in order to keep messaging to their base that would be negative if it spread to the general public. Meanwhile Biden will be stuck having to be out and about persuading people of a record they didn't promote while they were in office.
Either way I gotta say the election after this has to be better. Either Trump will be in jail on the crimes hes committed or either of them will be term limited and/or dead. Trump doesn't need to convince black people (or any minority really) to vote for him, he just needs them to not vote Biden.
Apathy towards Biden and just not bothering to vote is a much bigger threat then Trump actually convincing swing voters.
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On February 12 2024 06:43 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2024 05:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 12 2024 04:48 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 12 2024 00:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 12 2024 00:44 WombaT wrote:
I’d be interested as to what’s causing that waning,
In the longer-term one would only expect that bleed to happen eventually. It’s not like there aren’t plenty of conservative black folks who are only really kept away from voting as such by the racism that still afflicts the GOP.
But that’s quite a swing in quite a short period of time. I'd be interested in hearing what's causing that waning too. I read some articles recently, where I tried to find specifics, but the best I could find was a general cooling attitude like this: "But for Woodbury, whose work focuses on Black Americans who are cynical about voting, the generation gap is the major concern. While younger Democrats of all races are more progressive and critical of Biden than their elders are, Woodbury says he's seen polling that shows it's "much more concentrated among Black voters." Part of the steep decline in young Black Americans' approval of Biden stems from the fact that their approval started out so high — it's "a higher bar to drop from," as Woodbury put it. "When I sit in focus groups with young Black voters and ask what [Democrats have] done to make their lives better, they're hard pressed to come up with an answer, despite this administration delivering on much of the Black agenda," Woodbury said. "That's the communication challenge that we have a year to overcome."" https://abcnews.go.com/538/biden-losing-support-people-color/story?id=105272263 That's just a focus group, so less useful than broader data, but articles like the above one make me think two general things: 1. Black support probably started artificially higher than usual, because Trump and conservatives were (are) so transparently, vocally racist (not caring about cops murdering Black victims, against kneeling for the National Anthem, denying that criminal justice inequity exists, trying to remove voting rights that disproportionately affect Black communities, etc.), and Biden's support has naturally decreased over time, now that the Black community is realizing that simply having Biden in the White House isn't enough to fix systemic racism in our country; 2. Biden either hasn't followed through on key issues for Black voters (in their opinion), or hasn't sufficiently communicated his accomplishments to Black voters to keep their support. Yikes. the Black community is realizing that simply having Biden in the White House isn't enough to fix systemic racism in our country Really? There's a lot of factors at play. Black communities are diverse, though Democrats rarely grant them this reality as a result of their perpetual sense of entitlement to their votes. That said, Biden's support for cops and Israel certainly isn't helping. Then on the other hand you have the undercurrent of hustle/grindset culture identifying that Democrats represent a peculiarly bastardized version of the US's underpinning capitalist mindset. So Biden's bleeding Black people that have consistently voted ~90-10 Democrat in presidential elections for decades from both his left and right. If I were to try to nail down the single biggest cause, it's the undeserved sense of entitlement from Democrats for Black voters' votes starting to catch up with the Democrat party. This is evident in the insistence from Democrats that it is a communication rather than substance issue. Thank you for sharing that extra context. Do you think if Democrats/Biden realized those core issues and improved their messaging on wanting to help, that would strengthen support from the Black community, even if Republicans stood in the way of passing meaningful legislation that could address those issues? Also, could you reference the ~90-10 split? I found this source that isn't quite as extreme, although it's still very significant: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/ It's not a messaging problem (and I find the insistence it is patronizing, like the "Biden didn't solve systemic racism" line), it's the sense of entitlement to Black votes with decades of variations on "what are you going to do, vote for the Republican!?" problem. This is 2000, but you can just change the year in the url.
Thank you for the source! And I didn't insist that the problem was only messaging; your first response literally agreed with me when I said that it could definitely be that Biden hasn't followed through on key issues for Black voters too.
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On February 12 2024 07:02 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2024 06:43 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 12 2024 05:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 12 2024 04:48 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 12 2024 00:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 12 2024 00:44 WombaT wrote:
I’d be interested as to what’s causing that waning,
In the longer-term one would only expect that bleed to happen eventually. It’s not like there aren’t plenty of conservative black folks who are only really kept away from voting as such by the racism that still afflicts the GOP.
But that’s quite a swing in quite a short period of time. I'd be interested in hearing what's causing that waning too. I read some articles recently, where I tried to find specifics, but the best I could find was a general cooling attitude like this: "But for Woodbury, whose work focuses on Black Americans who are cynical about voting, the generation gap is the major concern. While younger Democrats of all races are more progressive and critical of Biden than their elders are, Woodbury says he's seen polling that shows it's "much more concentrated among Black voters." Part of the steep decline in young Black Americans' approval of Biden stems from the fact that their approval started out so high — it's "a higher bar to drop from," as Woodbury put it. "When I sit in focus groups with young Black voters and ask what [Democrats have] done to make their lives better, they're hard pressed to come up with an answer, despite this administration delivering on much of the Black agenda," Woodbury said. "That's the communication challenge that we have a year to overcome."" https://abcnews.go.com/538/biden-losing-support-people-color/story?id=105272263 That's just a focus group, so less useful than broader data, but articles like the above one make me think two general things: 1. Black support probably started artificially higher than usual, because Trump and conservatives were (are) so transparently, vocally racist (not caring about cops murdering Black victims, against kneeling for the National Anthem, denying that criminal justice inequity exists, trying to remove voting rights that disproportionately affect Black communities, etc.), and Biden's support has naturally decreased over time, now that the Black community is realizing that simply having Biden in the White House isn't enough to fix systemic racism in our country; 2. Biden either hasn't followed through on key issues for Black voters (in their opinion), or hasn't sufficiently communicated his accomplishments to Black voters to keep their support. Yikes. the Black community is realizing that simply having Biden in the White House isn't enough to fix systemic racism in our country Really? There's a lot of factors at play. Black communities are diverse, though Democrats rarely grant them this reality as a result of their perpetual sense of entitlement to their votes. That said, Biden's support for cops and Israel certainly isn't helping. Then on the other hand you have the undercurrent of hustle/grindset culture identifying that Democrats represent a peculiarly bastardized version of the US's underpinning capitalist mindset. So Biden's bleeding Black people that have consistently voted ~90-10 Democrat in presidential elections for decades from both his left and right. If I were to try to nail down the single biggest cause, it's the undeserved sense of entitlement from Democrats for Black voters' votes starting to catch up with the Democrat party. This is evident in the insistence from Democrats that it is a communication rather than substance issue. Thank you for sharing that extra context. Do you think if Democrats/Biden realized those core issues and improved their messaging on wanting to help, that would strengthen support from the Black community, even if Republicans stood in the way of passing meaningful legislation that could address those issues? Also, could you reference the ~90-10 split? I found this source that isn't quite as extreme, although it's still very significant: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/ It's not a messaging problem (and I find the insistence it is patronizing, like the "Biden didn't solve systemic racism" line), it's the sense of entitlement to Black votes with decades of variations on "what are you going to do, vote for the Republican!?" problem. This is 2000, but you can just change the year in the url. Thank you for the source! And I didn't insist that the problem was only messaging; your first response literally agreed with me when I said that it could definitely be that Biden hasn't followed through on key issues for Black voters too. No problem.
While I'd slightly disagree (in part because of the accompanying bit about Biden not solving systemic racism) it's more aimed at the party and pundits than any individual.
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On February 12 2024 07:12 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2024 07:02 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 12 2024 06:43 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 12 2024 05:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 12 2024 04:48 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 12 2024 00:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 12 2024 00:44 WombaT wrote:
I’d be interested as to what’s causing that waning,
In the longer-term one would only expect that bleed to happen eventually. It’s not like there aren’t plenty of conservative black folks who are only really kept away from voting as such by the racism that still afflicts the GOP.
But that’s quite a swing in quite a short period of time. I'd be interested in hearing what's causing that waning too. I read some articles recently, where I tried to find specifics, but the best I could find was a general cooling attitude like this: "But for Woodbury, whose work focuses on Black Americans who are cynical about voting, the generation gap is the major concern. While younger Democrats of all races are more progressive and critical of Biden than their elders are, Woodbury says he's seen polling that shows it's "much more concentrated among Black voters." Part of the steep decline in young Black Americans' approval of Biden stems from the fact that their approval started out so high — it's "a higher bar to drop from," as Woodbury put it. "When I sit in focus groups with young Black voters and ask what [Democrats have] done to make their lives better, they're hard pressed to come up with an answer, despite this administration delivering on much of the Black agenda," Woodbury said. "That's the communication challenge that we have a year to overcome."" https://abcnews.go.com/538/biden-losing-support-people-color/story?id=105272263 That's just a focus group, so less useful than broader data, but articles like the above one make me think two general things: 1. Black support probably started artificially higher than usual, because Trump and conservatives were (are) so transparently, vocally racist (not caring about cops murdering Black victims, against kneeling for the National Anthem, denying that criminal justice inequity exists, trying to remove voting rights that disproportionately affect Black communities, etc.), and Biden's support has naturally decreased over time, now that the Black community is realizing that simply having Biden in the White House isn't enough to fix systemic racism in our country; 2. Biden either hasn't followed through on key issues for Black voters (in their opinion), or hasn't sufficiently communicated his accomplishments to Black voters to keep their support. Yikes. the Black community is realizing that simply having Biden in the White House isn't enough to fix systemic racism in our country Really? There's a lot of factors at play. Black communities are diverse, though Democrats rarely grant them this reality as a result of their perpetual sense of entitlement to their votes. That said, Biden's support for cops and Israel certainly isn't helping. Then on the other hand you have the undercurrent of hustle/grindset culture identifying that Democrats represent a peculiarly bastardized version of the US's underpinning capitalist mindset. So Biden's bleeding Black people that have consistently voted ~90-10 Democrat in presidential elections for decades from both his left and right. If I were to try to nail down the single biggest cause, it's the undeserved sense of entitlement from Democrats for Black voters' votes starting to catch up with the Democrat party. This is evident in the insistence from Democrats that it is a communication rather than substance issue. Thank you for sharing that extra context. Do you think if Democrats/Biden realized those core issues and improved their messaging on wanting to help, that would strengthen support from the Black community, even if Republicans stood in the way of passing meaningful legislation that could address those issues? Also, could you reference the ~90-10 split? I found this source that isn't quite as extreme, although it's still very significant: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/ It's not a messaging problem (and I find the insistence it is patronizing, like the "Biden didn't solve systemic racism" line), it's the sense of entitlement to Black votes with decades of variations on "what are you going to do, vote for the Republican!?" problem. This is 2000, but you can just change the year in the url. Thank you for the source! And I didn't insist that the problem was only messaging; your first response literally agreed with me when I said that it could definitely be that Biden hasn't followed through on key issues for Black voters too. No problem. While I'd slightly disagree (in part because of the accompanying bit about Biden not solving systemic racism) it's more aimed at the party and pundits than any individual.
That's fair.
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On February 12 2024 06:40 ChristianS wrote:
It’s worth noting that Trump isn’t really the same guy he was in 2020 either. I don’t mean in terms of cognitive decline (although yes, that) but there was a period where a lot of Republicans had kind of abandoned him, including just about everybody who worked in his administration. The only people that stuck with him were the white nationalists, and given how much he’s always cared about unwavering loyalty, those are now the people he surrounds himself with. I mean, his campaign surrogates are promising that as soon as he enters office, he’s going to mobilize red state national guards to round up immigrants across the country and put them in camps. Outlandish as his rhetoric has always been, this really is a different color.
I’m not saying this to counter the “Biden might lose/Trump might win” arguments. I’m bored of those. It’s been obvious for like a year that he’ll be the Republican nominee, and a major party candidate always has a significant chance of winning. Assigning a percentage to it now is stupid considering it’s contingent on a million other questions we’re not actually discussing (what will the economy be like by November? What will the situation in Gaza be by then? How dependent is American public opinion on either of those things, or a million other issues?). So yes, his chances are significant, maybe >50%, but it’s not useful or interesting to keep focusing on that.
Might be worth discussing the *implications* of a Trump or Biden win. The latter is easy to picture, since we’ve just had almost 4 years of it and it seems unlikely to dramatically change because Biden can’t draw a clock or whatever. Trump, on the other hand…
I mean, forget everything else and just take his recent statements about supporting Putin’s invasion. In recent years countries around the world that have been eyeing their neighbors’ territory for decades have been increasingly deciding that now is their moment. Russia, Azerbaijan, Israel all seem to think the “international community” can’t do much to stop them. But US opposition is the biggest reason Russia has struggled in Ukraine, and American tolerance or support are the only reason that Azerbaijan or Israel can conduct their invasions. And at least in the latter case, the only plausible check on their continued atrocities would be if the US took a firm stand against it; no other nation is in a position to put the brakes on it.
What’s gonna happen in a world order with a new Trump administration at the helm? One that’s spent the last 8 years studying every check and balance and legal hurdle that stopped them from seizing total control the first time? That’s openly endorsing conquests like Putin’s and putting US support up for sale? A lot of Americans’ minds jump to Taiwan, but there’s a ton of protracted land disputes across the world ready to ignite if one side or the other thinks they have an edge and the consequences aren’t too dire. Instability at the top would prompt everyone to seek mutual defense pacts to regain safety, but that increases the likelihood any given dispute would escalate to something truly catastrophic and global.
I don’t think Biden’s done a good enough job using American power to discourage atrocities, but it’s hard to overstate the enormity of suffering an unstable world order could unleash upon the planet right now. Given all that it’s hard for me to care that Robert Hur got a bit out of pocket with his Special Counsel report, or w/e got everyone on this topic to begin with.
These types of arguments have been used ad nauseum for over 8 years now. Just look at this thread in the run up to the 2016 election and I'm sure you'll find no shortage of Trump to Hitler comparisons and how we are on the fast track to a fascist dictatorship, camps and all that. I don't know if I buy the argument that we can imagine what 4 more years of Biden will look like but not 4 more years of Trump because we just had 4 years of Biden. Well we just had 4 years of Trump too, no? 2016-2020 isn't exactly ancient history.
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On February 12 2024 08:34 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2024 06:40 ChristianS wrote:
It’s worth noting that Trump isn’t really the same guy he was in 2020 either. I don’t mean in terms of cognitive decline (although yes, that) but there was a period where a lot of Republicans had kind of abandoned him, including just about everybody who worked in his administration. The only people that stuck with him were the white nationalists, and given how much he’s always cared about unwavering loyalty, those are now the people he surrounds himself with. I mean, his campaign surrogates are promising that as soon as he enters office, he’s going to mobilize red state national guards to round up immigrants across the country and put them in camps. Outlandish as his rhetoric has always been, this really is a different color.
I’m not saying this to counter the “Biden might lose/Trump might win” arguments. I’m bored of those. It’s been obvious for like a year that he’ll be the Republican nominee, and a major party candidate always has a significant chance of winning. Assigning a percentage to it now is stupid considering it’s contingent on a million other questions we’re not actually discussing (what will the economy be like by November? What will the situation in Gaza be by then? How dependent is American public opinion on either of those things, or a million other issues?). So yes, his chances are significant, maybe >50%, but it’s not useful or interesting to keep focusing on that.
Might be worth discussing the *implications* of a Trump or Biden win. The latter is easy to picture, since we’ve just had almost 4 years of it and it seems unlikely to dramatically change because Biden can’t draw a clock or whatever. Trump, on the other hand…
I mean, forget everything else and just take his recent statements about supporting Putin’s invasion. In recent years countries around the world that have been eyeing their neighbors’ territory for decades have been increasingly deciding that now is their moment. Russia, Azerbaijan, Israel all seem to think the “international community” can’t do much to stop them. But US opposition is the biggest reason Russia has struggled in Ukraine, and American tolerance or support are the only reason that Azerbaijan or Israel can conduct their invasions. And at least in the latter case, the only plausible check on their continued atrocities would be if the US took a firm stand against it; no other nation is in a position to put the brakes on it.
What’s gonna happen in a world order with a new Trump administration at the helm? One that’s spent the last 8 years studying every check and balance and legal hurdle that stopped them from seizing total control the first time? That’s openly endorsing conquests like Putin’s and putting US support up for sale? A lot of Americans’ minds jump to Taiwan, but there’s a ton of protracted land disputes across the world ready to ignite if one side or the other thinks they have an edge and the consequences aren’t too dire. Instability at the top would prompt everyone to seek mutual defense pacts to regain safety, but that increases the likelihood any given dispute would escalate to something truly catastrophic and global.
I don’t think Biden’s done a good enough job using American power to discourage atrocities, but it’s hard to overstate the enormity of suffering an unstable world order could unleash upon the planet right now. Given all that it’s hard for me to care that Robert Hur got a bit out of pocket with his Special Counsel report, or w/e got everyone on this topic to begin with. These types of arguments have been used ad nauseum for over 8 years now. Just look at this thread in the run up to the 2016 election and I'm sure you'll find no shortage of Trump to Hitler comparisons and how we are on the fast track to a fascist dictatorship, camps and all that. I don't know if I buy the argument that we can imagine what 4 more years of Biden will look like but not 4 more years of Trump because we just had 4 years of Biden. Well we just had 4 years of Trump too, no? 2016-2020 isn't exactly ancient history.
It’s not really responsive to an explicit claim that “Trump is really different than he was 4 years ago and he’ll do especially bad stuff” to say “well he didn’t do that bad stuff 4 years ago.” Anyway a huge percentage of my claim had to do with geopolitical context that was different a few years ago. I think Ukraine, for instance, would have gone very differently with Trump in office and still might depend on the outcome of this election.
And it’s not just Democrats talking about building camps or dictatorship. It’s Trump surrogates, or often Trump himself.
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On February 12 2024 08:34 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2024 06:40 ChristianS wrote:
It’s worth noting that Trump isn’t really the same guy he was in 2020 either. I don’t mean in terms of cognitive decline (although yes, that) but there was a period where a lot of Republicans had kind of abandoned him, including just about everybody who worked in his administration. The only people that stuck with him were the white nationalists, and given how much he’s always cared about unwavering loyalty, those are now the people he surrounds himself with. I mean, his campaign surrogates are promising that as soon as he enters office, he’s going to mobilize red state national guards to round up immigrants across the country and put them in camps. Outlandish as his rhetoric has always been, this really is a different color.
I’m not saying this to counter the “Biden might lose/Trump might win” arguments. I’m bored of those. It’s been obvious for like a year that he’ll be the Republican nominee, and a major party candidate always has a significant chance of winning. Assigning a percentage to it now is stupid considering it’s contingent on a million other questions we’re not actually discussing (what will the economy be like by November? What will the situation in Gaza be by then? How dependent is American public opinion on either of those things, or a million other issues?). So yes, his chances are significant, maybe >50%, but it’s not useful or interesting to keep focusing on that.
Might be worth discussing the *implications* of a Trump or Biden win. The latter is easy to picture, since we’ve just had almost 4 years of it and it seems unlikely to dramatically change because Biden can’t draw a clock or whatever. Trump, on the other hand…
I mean, forget everything else and just take his recent statements about supporting Putin’s invasion. In recent years countries around the world that have been eyeing their neighbors’ territory for decades have been increasingly deciding that now is their moment. Russia, Azerbaijan, Israel all seem to think the “international community” can’t do much to stop them. But US opposition is the biggest reason Russia has struggled in Ukraine, and American tolerance or support are the only reason that Azerbaijan or Israel can conduct their invasions. And at least in the latter case, the only plausible check on their continued atrocities would be if the US took a firm stand against it; no other nation is in a position to put the brakes on it.
What’s gonna happen in a world order with a new Trump administration at the helm? One that’s spent the last 8 years studying every check and balance and legal hurdle that stopped them from seizing total control the first time? That’s openly endorsing conquests like Putin’s and putting US support up for sale? A lot of Americans’ minds jump to Taiwan, but there’s a ton of protracted land disputes across the world ready to ignite if one side or the other thinks they have an edge and the consequences aren’t too dire. Instability at the top would prompt everyone to seek mutual defense pacts to regain safety, but that increases the likelihood any given dispute would escalate to something truly catastrophic and global.
I don’t think Biden’s done a good enough job using American power to discourage atrocities, but it’s hard to overstate the enormity of suffering an unstable world order could unleash upon the planet right now. Given all that it’s hard for me to care that Robert Hur got a bit out of pocket with his Special Counsel report, or w/e got everyone on this topic to begin with. These types of arguments have been used ad nauseum for over 8 years now. Just look at this thread in the run up to the 2016 election and I'm sure you'll find no shortage of Trump to Hitler comparisons and how we are on the fast track to a fascist dictatorship, camps and all that. I don't know if I buy the argument that we can imagine what 4 more years of Biden will look like but not 4 more years of Trump because we just had 4 years of Biden. Well we just had 4 years of Trump too, no? 2016-2020 isn't exactly ancient history.
I agree, but both Biden's current presidency and Trump's past presidency are great reasons why we ought to want Biden to win again and Trump to lose again.
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Northern Ireland24956 Posts
On February 12 2024 08:39 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2024 08:34 BlackJack wrote:On February 12 2024 06:40 ChristianS wrote:
It’s worth noting that Trump isn’t really the same guy he was in 2020 either. I don’t mean in terms of cognitive decline (although yes, that) but there was a period where a lot of Republicans had kind of abandoned him, including just about everybody who worked in his administration. The only people that stuck with him were the white nationalists, and given how much he’s always cared about unwavering loyalty, those are now the people he surrounds himself with. I mean, his campaign surrogates are promising that as soon as he enters office, he’s going to mobilize red state national guards to round up immigrants across the country and put them in camps. Outlandish as his rhetoric has always been, this really is a different color.
I’m not saying this to counter the “Biden might lose/Trump might win” arguments. I’m bored of those. It’s been obvious for like a year that he’ll be the Republican nominee, and a major party candidate always has a significant chance of winning. Assigning a percentage to it now is stupid considering it’s contingent on a million other questions we’re not actually discussing (what will the economy be like by November? What will the situation in Gaza be by then? How dependent is American public opinion on either of those things, or a million other issues?). So yes, his chances are significant, maybe >50%, but it’s not useful or interesting to keep focusing on that.
Might be worth discussing the *implications* of a Trump or Biden win. The latter is easy to picture, since we’ve just had almost 4 years of it and it seems unlikely to dramatically change because Biden can’t draw a clock or whatever. Trump, on the other hand…
I mean, forget everything else and just take his recent statements about supporting Putin’s invasion. In recent years countries around the world that have been eyeing their neighbors’ territory for decades have been increasingly deciding that now is their moment. Russia, Azerbaijan, Israel all seem to think the “international community” can’t do much to stop them. But US opposition is the biggest reason Russia has struggled in Ukraine, and American tolerance or support are the only reason that Azerbaijan or Israel can conduct their invasions. And at least in the latter case, the only plausible check on their continued atrocities would be if the US took a firm stand against it; no other nation is in a position to put the brakes on it.
What’s gonna happen in a world order with a new Trump administration at the helm? One that’s spent the last 8 years studying every check and balance and legal hurdle that stopped them from seizing total control the first time? That’s openly endorsing conquests like Putin’s and putting US support up for sale? A lot of Americans’ minds jump to Taiwan, but there’s a ton of protracted land disputes across the world ready to ignite if one side or the other thinks they have an edge and the consequences aren’t too dire. Instability at the top would prompt everyone to seek mutual defense pacts to regain safety, but that increases the likelihood any given dispute would escalate to something truly catastrophic and global.
I don’t think Biden’s done a good enough job using American power to discourage atrocities, but it’s hard to overstate the enormity of suffering an unstable world order could unleash upon the planet right now. Given all that it’s hard for me to care that Robert Hur got a bit out of pocket with his Special Counsel report, or w/e got everyone on this topic to begin with. These types of arguments have been used ad nauseum for over 8 years now. Just look at this thread in the run up to the 2016 election and I'm sure you'll find no shortage of Trump to Hitler comparisons and how we are on the fast track to a fascist dictatorship, camps and all that. I don't know if I buy the argument that we can imagine what 4 more years of Biden will look like but not 4 more years of Trump because we just had 4 years of Biden. Well we just had 4 years of Trump too, no? 2016-2020 isn't exactly ancient history. It’s not really responsive to an explicit claim that “Trump is really different than he was 4 years ago and he’ll do especially bad stuff” to say “well he didn’t do that bad stuff 4 years ago.” Anyway a huge percentage of my claim had to do with geopolitical context that was different a few years ago. I think Ukraine, for instance, would have gone very differently with Trump in office and still might depend on the outcome of this election. And it’s not just Democrats talking about building camps or dictatorship. It’s Trump surrogates, or often Trump himself.
Even if Trump doesn’t actually do half of what he blathers about, being in situ just emboldens the worst political actors around and further poisons the well.
A Trump win has that kind of cascade of shit effect where it entirely validates doubling down on him, and the direction he’s been dragging the GOP towards. Plus ambitious members of the GOP aping those very politics.
The ripple effect doesn’t look pretty on paper
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On February 12 2024 08:34 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2024 06:40 ChristianS wrote:
It’s worth noting that Trump isn’t really the same guy he was in 2020 either. I don’t mean in terms of cognitive decline (although yes, that) but there was a period where a lot of Republicans had kind of abandoned him, including just about everybody who worked in his administration. The only people that stuck with him were the white nationalists, and given how much he’s always cared about unwavering loyalty, those are now the people he surrounds himself with. I mean, his campaign surrogates are promising that as soon as he enters office, he’s going to mobilize red state national guards to round up immigrants across the country and put them in camps. Outlandish as his rhetoric has always been, this really is a different color.
I’m not saying this to counter the “Biden might lose/Trump might win” arguments. I’m bored of those. It’s been obvious for like a year that he’ll be the Republican nominee, and a major party candidate always has a significant chance of winning. Assigning a percentage to it now is stupid considering it’s contingent on a million other questions we’re not actually discussing (what will the economy be like by November? What will the situation in Gaza be by then? How dependent is American public opinion on either of those things, or a million other issues?). So yes, his chances are significant, maybe >50%, but it’s not useful or interesting to keep focusing on that.
Might be worth discussing the *implications* of a Trump or Biden win. The latter is easy to picture, since we’ve just had almost 4 years of it and it seems unlikely to dramatically change because Biden can’t draw a clock or whatever. Trump, on the other hand…
I mean, forget everything else and just take his recent statements about supporting Putin’s invasion. In recent years countries around the world that have been eyeing their neighbors’ territory for decades have been increasingly deciding that now is their moment. Russia, Azerbaijan, Israel all seem to think the “international community” can’t do much to stop them. But US opposition is the biggest reason Russia has struggled in Ukraine, and American tolerance or support are the only reason that Azerbaijan or Israel can conduct their invasions. And at least in the latter case, the only plausible check on their continued atrocities would be if the US took a firm stand against it; no other nation is in a position to put the brakes on it.
What’s gonna happen in a world order with a new Trump administration at the helm? One that’s spent the last 8 years studying every check and balance and legal hurdle that stopped them from seizing total control the first time? That’s openly endorsing conquests like Putin’s and putting US support up for sale? A lot of Americans’ minds jump to Taiwan, but there’s a ton of protracted land disputes across the world ready to ignite if one side or the other thinks they have an edge and the consequences aren’t too dire. Instability at the top would prompt everyone to seek mutual defense pacts to regain safety, but that increases the likelihood any given dispute would escalate to something truly catastrophic and global.
I don’t think Biden’s done a good enough job using American power to discourage atrocities, but it’s hard to overstate the enormity of suffering an unstable world order could unleash upon the planet right now. Given all that it’s hard for me to care that Robert Hur got a bit out of pocket with his Special Counsel report, or w/e got everyone on this topic to begin with. These types of arguments have been used ad nauseum for over 8 years now. Just look at this thread in the run up to the 2016 election and I'm sure you'll find no shortage of Trump to Hitler comparisons and how we are on the fast track to a fascist dictatorship, camps and all that. I don't know if I buy the argument that we can imagine what 4 more years of Biden will look like but not 4 more years of Trump because we just had 4 years of Biden. Well we just had 4 years of Trump too, no? 2016-2020 isn't exactly ancient history.
People might have just been talking shit about where trump was going to go but this time its Trump that is saying he wants to start rounding up people putting them in camps and expelling them into some country. This isn't even a throwaway line hes been detailing how he imagines he will be able to get military resources and money to police to start picking them up and setting them into camps. Venezuela is building up its military on its border, we know what biden will do, but can anyone confidently predict what Trump will do about an extremely convenient possible ally in the Caribbean?
We can easily tell what would happen with Biden, the guy has been in government for decades and decades now. He would just be going on with the same march of liberal gradual reform politics. Trade deals would get negotiated to make the economy better and I would bet more than not we see a comprehensive deal with Argentina to ensure its dollarization goes well in exchange for the lithium and oil reserves that they can't exploit currently.
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On February 12 2024 07:15 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 12 2024 07:12 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 12 2024 07:02 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 12 2024 06:43 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 12 2024 05:35 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 12 2024 04:48 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 12 2024 00:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 12 2024 00:44 WombaT wrote:
I’d be interested as to what’s causing that waning,
In the longer-term one would only expect that bleed to happen eventually. It’s not like there aren’t plenty of conservative black folks who are only really kept away from voting as such by the racism that still afflicts the GOP.
But that’s quite a swing in quite a short period of time. I'd be interested in hearing what's causing that waning too. I read some articles recently, where I tried to find specifics, but the best I could find was a general cooling attitude like this: "But for Woodbury, whose work focuses on Black Americans who are cynical about voting, the generation gap is the major concern. While younger Democrats of all races are more progressive and critical of Biden than their elders are, Woodbury says he's seen polling that shows it's "much more concentrated among Black voters." Part of the steep decline in young Black Americans' approval of Biden stems from the fact that their approval started out so high — it's "a higher bar to drop from," as Woodbury put it. "When I sit in focus groups with young Black voters and ask what [Democrats have] done to make their lives better, they're hard pressed to come up with an answer, despite this administration delivering on much of the Black agenda," Woodbury said. "That's the communication challenge that we have a year to overcome."" https://abcnews.go.com/538/biden-losing-support-people-color/story?id=105272263 That's just a focus group, so less useful than broader data, but articles like the above one make me think two general things: 1. Black support probably started artificially higher than usual, because Trump and conservatives were (are) so transparently, vocally racist (not caring about cops murdering Black victims, against kneeling for the National Anthem, denying that criminal justice inequity exists, trying to remove voting rights that disproportionately affect Black communities, etc.), and Biden's support has naturally decreased over time, now that the Black community is realizing that simply having Biden in the White House isn't enough to fix systemic racism in our country; 2. Biden either hasn't followed through on key issues for Black voters (in their opinion), or hasn't sufficiently communicated his accomplishments to Black voters to keep their support. Yikes. the Black community is realizing that simply having Biden in the White House isn't enough to fix systemic racism in our country Really? There's a lot of factors at play. Black communities are diverse, though Democrats rarely grant them this reality as a result of their perpetual sense of entitlement to their votes. That said, Biden's support for cops and Israel certainly isn't helping. Then on the other hand you have the undercurrent of hustle/grindset culture identifying that Democrats represent a peculiarly bastardized version of the US's underpinning capitalist mindset. So Biden's bleeding Black people that have consistently voted ~90-10 Democrat in presidential elections for decades from both his left and right. If I were to try to nail down the single biggest cause, it's the undeserved sense of entitlement from Democrats for Black voters' votes starting to catch up with the Democrat party. This is evident in the insistence from Democrats that it is a communication rather than substance issue. Thank you for sharing that extra context. Do you think if Democrats/Biden realized those core issues and improved their messaging on wanting to help, that would strengthen support from the Black community, even if Republicans stood in the way of passing meaningful legislation that could address those issues? Also, could you reference the ~90-10 split? I found this source that isn't quite as extreme, although it's still very significant: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/ It's not a messaging problem (and I find the insistence it is patronizing, like the "Biden didn't solve systemic racism" line), it's the sense of entitlement to Black votes with decades of variations on "what are you going to do, vote for the Republican!?" problem. This is 2000, but you can just change the year in the url. Thank you for the source! And I didn't insist that the problem was only messaging; your first response literally agreed with me when I said that it could definitely be that Biden hasn't followed through on key issues for Black voters too. No problem. While I'd slightly disagree (in part because of the accompanying bit about Biden not solving systemic racism) it's more aimed at the party and pundits than any individual. That's fair. The generic refusal to recognize how/why this is an increasingly troubling problem for Democrats is not unrelated to Biden's record breakingly bad numbers.
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EPT
