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The group said its reason for endorsing the U.S. president is tied to his administration's ongoing efforts to withdraw the remaining 5,000 military troops from Afghanistan after 19 years of combat in the Middle East—America's longest war in history.
The war is older than some of the people fighting it. Trump's administration managing to put together a withdrawal plan that's seemingly agreed on is one of the few good things he's managed.
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So i think most people are starting to come to terms with the fact that trump is headed for a big L. I mean biden is starting to edge close to 400 is some predictions. Does anyone see anyway for trump to turn this around. Funny with him having the massive advantage that he can just crown himself in close election if he wants. With just 3 weeks i cant see anything short of some bomb shell story that biden molested kids or something of that nature putting trump back in the race. And even then if it come from Barr i dont think most people are going to give that any salt since he really is trump personal lawyer at this point.
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On October 11 2020 09:34 Shingi11 wrote:
So i think most people are starting to come to terms with the fact that trump is headed for a big L. I mean biden is starting to edge close to 400 is some predictions. Does anyone see anyway for trump to turn this around. Funny with him having the massive advantage that he can just crown himself in close election if he wants. With just 3 weeks i cant see anything short of some bomb shell story that biden molested kids or something of that nature putting trump back in the race. And even then if it come from Barr i dont think most people are going to give that any salt since he really is trump personal lawyer at this point.
Barr will indict Biden in late October and create a legal theater around the idea that he sold weapons to either Russia or Ukraine. Barr will probably charge him with treason, even though they know it won't stick. I think they realize Comey is why they won and they are 1000000% planning on something on a Comey-level scale. There is something big and flashy coming, but we won't know for a while now.
To your point, I really think that's Trump's only hope.
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On October 11 2020 09:36 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 11 2020 09:34 Shingi11 wrote:
So i think most people are starting to come to terms with the fact that trump is headed for a big L. I mean biden is starting to edge close to 400 is some predictions. Does anyone see anyway for trump to turn this around. Funny with him having the massive advantage that he can just crown himself in close election if he wants. With just 3 weeks i cant see anything short of some bomb shell story that biden molested kids or something of that nature putting trump back in the race. And even then if it come from Barr i dont think most people are going to give that any salt since he really is trump personal lawyer at this point. Barr will indict Biden in late October and create a legal theater around the idea that he sold weapons to either Russia or Ukraine. Barr will probably charge him with treason, even though they know it won't stick. I think they realize Comey is why they won and they are 1000000% planning on something on a Comey-level scale. There is something big and flashy coming, but we won't know for a while now. To your point, I really think that's Trump's only hope.
I agree, any win of trump is going to have to go through barr but he just has so little credibility outside of the hard core conservative base what does that actually do. At this point i think it is out of trumps hands at th, any win he gets is going to be on a biden mistake. Comey was seen at least somewhat neutral so barr is not going to create anywhere near the same effect. IF anything i could see it Incense people even more and backfire.
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Barr has indicated since the beginning that he is there to protect the president and assert him as above the law if necessary. His bias is well-established. By contrast, Comey was a seemingly less biased 3rd party, whose announcement had an understandably large impact. Barr can't do anything that appeals to anyone but the people who are already voting for Trump.
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On October 11 2020 09:56 Shingi11 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 11 2020 09:36 Mohdoo wrote:On October 11 2020 09:34 Shingi11 wrote:
So i think most people are starting to come to terms with the fact that trump is headed for a big L. I mean biden is starting to edge close to 400 is some predictions. Does anyone see anyway for trump to turn this around. Funny with him having the massive advantage that he can just crown himself in close election if he wants. With just 3 weeks i cant see anything short of some bomb shell story that biden molested kids or something of that nature putting trump back in the race. And even then if it come from Barr i dont think most people are going to give that any salt since he really is trump personal lawyer at this point. Barr will indict Biden in late October and create a legal theater around the idea that he sold weapons to either Russia or Ukraine. Barr will probably charge him with treason, even though they know it won't stick. I think they realize Comey is why they won and they are 1000000% planning on something on a Comey-level scale. There is something big and flashy coming, but we won't know for a while now. To your point, I really think that's Trump's only hope. I agree, any win of trump is going to have to go through barr but he just has so little credibility outside of the hard core conservative base what does that actually do. At this point i think it is out of trumps hands at th, any win he gets is going to be on a biden mistake. Comey was seen at least somewhat neutral so barr is not going to create anywhere near the same effect. IF anything i could see it Incense people even more and backfire.
This is true but I think Barr can also do a lot. He could have Hunter Biden arrested and likely never suffer for it.
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On October 11 2020 09:34 Shingi11 wrote:
So i think most people are starting to come to terms with the fact that trump is headed for a big L. I mean biden is starting to edge close to 400 is some predictions. Does anyone see anyway for trump to turn this around. Funny with him having the massive advantage that he can just crown himself in close election if he wants. With just 3 weeks i cant see anything short of some bomb shell story that biden molested kids or something of that nature putting trump back in the race. And even then if it come from Barr i dont think most people are going to give that any salt since he really is trump personal lawyer at this point.
Ever since the start of the coronavirus outbreak there really hasn't been anything that moved the needle at all for this election. Been moderately Biden favored for a while now, and even more so after the debate.
Would have to be one truly massive bombshell to turn things around at this point.
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On October 11 2020 09:56 Shingi11 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 11 2020 09:36 Mohdoo wrote:On October 11 2020 09:34 Shingi11 wrote:
So i think most people are starting to come to terms with the fact that trump is headed for a big L. I mean biden is starting to edge close to 400 is some predictions. Does anyone see anyway for trump to turn this around. Funny with him having the massive advantage that he can just crown himself in close election if he wants. With just 3 weeks i cant see anything short of some bomb shell story that biden molested kids or something of that nature putting trump back in the race. And even then if it come from Barr i dont think most people are going to give that any salt since he really is trump personal lawyer at this point. Barr will indict Biden in late October and create a legal theater around the idea that he sold weapons to either Russia or Ukraine. Barr will probably charge him with treason, even though they know it won't stick. I think they realize Comey is why they won and they are 1000000% planning on something on a Comey-level scale. There is something big and flashy coming, but we won't know for a while now. To your point, I really think that's Trump's only hope. I agree, any win of trump is going to have to go through barr but he just has so little credibility outside of the hard core conservative base what does that actually do. At this point i think it is out of trumps hands at th, any win he gets is going to be on a biden mistake. Comey was seen at least somewhat neutral so barr is not going to create anywhere near the same effect. IF anything i could see it Incense people even more and backfire.
Thing is, democrats vote overwhelmingly per mail, so a good chunk of the votes are already on their way
Anyway, can't vote our chickens since one side doesn't want a fair election 
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On October 11 2020 09:34 Shingi11 wrote:
So i think most people are starting to come to terms with the fact that trump is headed for a big L. I mean biden is starting to edge close to 400 is some predictions. Does anyone see anyway for trump to turn this around. Funny with him having the massive advantage that he can just crown himself in close election if he wants. With just 3 weeks i cant see anything short of some bomb shell story that biden molested kids or something of that nature putting trump back in the race. And even then if it come from Barr i dont think most people are going to give that any salt since he really is trump personal lawyer at this point.
This is pure delusion.
Fact : Trump is currently polling better in battleground states than he did in 2016 : https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/
Currently by 0.8%+ vs 2016.Gap has been growing this month, even Nate Silver (on twitter) noted state polls have been 'meh' for Biden lately.
Florida itself, the largest prize of the true swing states continues to slip away from the democrats.
Observe, Florida election board registration party data :
Florida Voter Registration Edge:
2008: Dem edge over Rep: 694,147
Result: Obama wins by 236,148
2012: Dem edge: 558,272
Result: Obama wins by 74,309
2016: Dem edge: 330,428
Result: Trump wins by 112,991
2020: Dem edge as of 10/9: 136,294
Result: ??
https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/by-party-affiliation-archive/
So we see republicans have closed the gap by almost 200k since 2016 in Florida.I estimate he will win it by at least 250,000, conservatively If previous trends outlined above hold.
Also one last chuckle to the people who don't want to end the Afghan war.
It's been going 19 years.
Let it end.
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You don't find it odd that you're predicting a large Republican victory when Democrats have consistently been registering in higher numbers for over a decade?
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On October 11 2020 12:36 NewSunshine wrote:
You don't find it odd that you're predicting a large Republican victory when Democrats have consistently been registering in higher numbers for over a decade?
What is odd? Democrats have always had higher voter registration in Florida, going back to 1972.
It's all in the link i provided....
Republicans don't 'need' to have higher registrations than democrats to win it (obviously) but if they're closing the gap 200k compared to the democrats, when they already won it in 2016 by 100k+ already, then it's pretty obvious no? There's a clear correlation between republicans gaining in registrations compared to democrats and republicans gaining in total votes that i outlined above.
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No. There's not a whole lot about this election so far that's obvious. Even if the votes yield a clear result, nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen afterward. Trump has stoked so many fires that mid-late November (when we're likely to get results) is going to be a nightmare.
So... yeah. You just sound like an idiot for suggesting people are delusional by pointing to a single piece of data that doesn't really say anything definitive. You're extrapolating a line from a single datum point that looks good to you, when neither statistics at large nor politics in particular work that way.
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On October 11 2020 12:44 NewSunshine wrote:
So... yeah. You just sound like an idiot for suggesting people are delusional by pointing to a single piece of data that doesn't really say anything definitive. You're extrapolating a line from a single datum point that looks good to you, when neither statistics at large nor politics in particular work that way.
He didn't provide any data.
I provided data from RCP and the Florida board of elections.
I'm assuming in his Biden 400 EV scenario that Biden wins Florida.And i'm also pointing out that according to RCP and the voter registration data, that looks unlikely at this stage.
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Nate Silver said Biden's state polls were comparatively meh for one week after he just came off a dominating one where he got high quality polls that ranged from 7-11 points in Pennsylvania and similar numbers in Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida. I'd think Trump is polling slightly better in swing states compared to 2016 because there's fewer undecideds and third party voters and some have solidified on him rather than hovering on the fence like last time.
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Does voter registration data in Florida upturn the notion that Trump may lose the national election, therefore making him delusional?
And fwiw, simply providing data doesn't make an argument intrinsically superior, it needs to fit in the context of your argument, and it needs to support the point you're making. It doesn't necessarily do any of that in your case.
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On October 11 2020 12:57 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Nate Silver said Biden's state polls were comparatively meh for one week after he just came off a dominating one where he got high quality polls that ranged from 7-11 points in Pennsylvania and similar numbers in Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida. I'd think Trump is polling slightly better in swing states compared to 2016 because there's fewer undecideds and third party voters and some have solidified on him rather than hovering on the fence like last time.
I'm on RCP now and it shows Biden is polling worse in MI,PA,FL,WI than Clinton did at this stage four years ago.I'll note that he's only 0.1% worse in FL though, compared to -4% in MI and -1.2% in PA.
He is however polling better in AZ than Clinton so maybe he can pick that one up.
None of this changes Biden 400 EV votes as total delusion at this stage.
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On October 11 2020 13:00 NewSunshine wrote:
Does voter registration data in Florida upturn the notion that Trump may lose the national election, therefore making him delusional?
And fwiw, simply providing data doesn't make an argument intrinsically superior, it needs to fit in the context of your argument, and it needs to support the point you're making. It doesn't necessarily do any of that in your case.
I don't understand your argument here.
Biden is doing worse in battleground states than Clinton ergo it will be harder for him to win, let alone reach 400.
The Florida voter registrations back up that claim as it makes it likelier that Trump will win Florida.
That IS the current state of play.
If you have any reasoning to why Biden will get to 400, go ahead.People are rebutting without actually providing counter claims.Maybe at the very least post an electoral map.
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On October 11 2020 12:57 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Nate Silver said Biden's state polls were comparatively meh for one week after he just came off a dominating one where he got high quality polls that ranged from 7-11 points in Pennsylvania and similar numbers in Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida. I'd think Trump is polling slightly better in swing states compared to 2016 because there's fewer undecideds and third party voters and some have solidified on him rather than hovering on the fence like last time.
The reason he's polling higher is that RCP is using the average of the distance between the two candidates. A lot of the polls were like Trump 37 Hillary 43.
Biden 51 Trump 45.6 is a much, much worse result for him than the 2016 one, despite it being a higher registration on the metric.
The 2016 ones indicated that if undecideds broke for him he had a chance. In these, every undecided could go for him and he'd still lose.
This was also possibly Trump's worst polling period outside of attacking the gold star family, as it was literally the week after access hollywood dropped.
In short, it's literally the most cherrypicked of cherrypicked stats, and possibly the only two in all of current polling data that show him doing better this year (voter registration increases, last I checked, have 0 predictive power).
The swing states are closer than the national environment, which is why there's some tension around the election results still, but closer here means +6-8 instead of + 9-18
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On October 11 2020 13:06 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On October 11 2020 12:57 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Nate Silver said Biden's state polls were comparatively meh for one week after he just came off a dominating one where he got high quality polls that ranged from 7-11 points in Pennsylvania and similar numbers in Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida. I'd think Trump is polling slightly better in swing states compared to 2016 because there's fewer undecideds and third party voters and some have solidified on him rather than hovering on the fence like last time. I'm on RCP now and it shows Biden is polling worse in MI,PA,FL,WI than Clinton did at this stage four years ago.I'll note that he's only 0.1% worse in FL though, compared to -4% in MI and -1.2% in PA. He is however polling better in AZ than Clinton so maybe he can pick that one up. None of this changes Biden 400 EV votes as total delusion at this stage.
I just going to post a couple of election forecasters here, all of them could be wrong but most have biden at 350+
the economist biden 350 trump 188
538 biden 352 trump 186
JHK forcast biden 356 trump 182
Our progress biden 389 trump 149
While 400 is a push it is not that unlikely. IT would require texas to flip and by 538 standers that has a higher chance of happening then trump winning. Texas has a 30 chance for biden the while trump is sitting at 14 to win. BIden is polling much better then Clinton was. SHe was never over 50% approve, she hovered around the mid 40s and biden is sitting at 52%. ALso trump was within margin of error with all polls in 2016. Even if you shift every poll this time by margin of error in trumps favor he still loses. I want some of that cool aid you are sipping but if you cant see that trump is way down right now.
Trump is losing every swing state right now by large margins and is barely ahead in solid red states like georgia and iowa. IF anything they are toss ups right now. You have to get all the way to like missori and kansas before trump start having solid leads. That should tell you how dire things are for trump
edit
RCP no toss up map biden 358 trump 180
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EPT
