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On May 16 2020 04:16 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2020 03:56 Sadist wrote:On May 16 2020 03:45 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:Running through NPR during lunch and this popped up. This is what happens when ignorance wins out and rationale decisions aren't made. I looked forward to the numbers that come out of this decision (among other places that lifted isolation orders) to see what the results are. I'm for not giving the people who went out to celebrate treatment if they do become infected, but that's just my callousness speaking. The mayor of Madison, Wisc., is slamming the decision by the state's supreme court this week to overturn the governor's stay-at-home order, saying businesses are not in a position to reopen and warning that the coronavirus will only spread as a result.
"There is absolutely a danger here and that's why it's so irresponsible of the court to have struck down the governor's 'safer at home' order without a plan in place for how we transition out of it safely," said Mayor Satya Rhodes-Conway in an interview on Friday. "This is the supreme court that thought it was safe for us to hold an election in person during a pandemic, and what we saw from that is that dozens and dozens of people got sick. I expect the same to happen with this decision."
The mayor's comments followed Wednesday's 4-3 vote by Wisconsin's supreme court to strike down efforts by the state's Democratic governor, Tony Evers, to extend a statewide stay-at-home order designed to slow the virus. While some cheered the court's action — even taking to bars to celebrate — others have decried the court's action as a threat to public health, reflecting the competing forces that elected officials are being forced to confront as they weigh next steps in a pandemic that has infected more than 1.4 million nationwide and killed 86,000. SourceIt's a shame that people can't just stay indoors or not be around people for an extended period of time when it's an effort to flatten a deadly disease and save lives. It seems to me, people really want that second wave to hit sooner rather than later. Ive been on the side of staying home and social distancing but its become blatently obvious the government is not going to have widescale testing anytime soon. Without mass testing, randomized testing, and anti body testing we have no idea the true death rate or where we are on the curve. Its beyond frustrating Weve stayed home for 8 weeks but it doesnt feel like weve made any progress other than flattening the deaths in the worst areas. Its hard to force people to stay home when the data is still incomplete. Its not clear where we are with infections as a whole, what the true death rate is, how exactly its being transmitted (surfaces, particles in air, etc) The federal govt shit the bed on this hard but the states cant just shut down forever. We need a plan and real data. I agree. While I'm used to spending an unhealthy amount of time with my thoughts and projects, I know some people are starting to get cabin fever. We've been on isolation since March 21st here in Illinois. Even I'm ready to be around someone other than my reflection in the mirror. At the same time however, I understand the need to minimize contact with others as much as possible. I don't see the point in rushing back only for this to hit harder. I don't think the states or feds have overstepped constitutional boundaries just yet, but any longer and it could brush fire quickly. There are industries and sectors of the economy that can reopen and probably should be allowed to reopen regardless, but there needs to be some kind of plan in place (a lot of states have phases they are doing and most are in phase 2 or 3 at the moment). The retail sector is probably screwed in terms of revenue and employees still. There just isn't any way for 25% capacity limit establishments to survive. Congress is about to vote on another 3 trillion bill today or soon. So we'll see what that does. But I'm not optimistic that a vast majority of people will be back to work soon. And even if they are, they will be underemployed.
Hospitality and Retail is shot until we sort out testing. Id love to go to a bar right now but theres no way in hell im going to one until there is some type of data to quantify the risk. The economy will be in the tank until testing is sorted out.
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So where do you see the feds and state governments stepping in? Do they allow the sectors to die or do they continue to prop them up? How much of a social service/safety net are they willing to put forward? And also, how does the election continue with the new normal that is here?
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On May 16 2020 04:42 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
So where do you see the feds and state governments stepping in? Do they allow the sectors to die or do they continue to prop them up? How much of a social service/safety net are they willing to put forward? And also, how does the election continue with the new normal that is here?
Well California just announced they'll be sending out mail ballots to every registered voter. New York, Oregon and Washington I think are doing the same thing.
People often forget that Elections are run at the state level, so each state might have a different method for handling the election, it's not up to the Federal government to dictate when Presidental elections are held as long as there is a choice before his first day in office.
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On May 16 2020 04:42 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
So where do you see the feds and state governments stepping in? Do they allow the sectors to die or do they continue to prop them up? How much of a social service/safety net are they willing to put forward? And also, how does the election continue with the new normal that is here?
Reasonable people will push for mail-in and Republicans will continue trying to bankrupt/hamstring the post office to get as much disenfranchisement in as possible.
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Why are you assuming mail-in voting is the opposite of disenfranchisement?
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On May 16 2020 05:30 Sent. wrote:
Why are you assuming mail-in voting is the opposite of disenfranchisement? Because its easier to find time to drop an envelope in the maibox then it is to spend several hours standing in line?
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I think any form of obstructing alternative methods to voting will not be well received by any party. The best they could do is offer mail-in, person, and app based voting measures if at all possible and feasible. I think the Dems are going to be more receptive to those ideas than the Reps, but the Reps might figure out a new way to skew results. Dems would too, but it's shown that the Dems are scrutinized far more heavily, so I think they'll attempt to keep it on the level.
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So, there is quite a lot of information coming out about Tara Reade. While it does NOT mean her claims shouldn't be investigated, I'm pretty sure it does mean that if it ever went to court, her sheer history of questionable behaviour and grifting would be so problematic that she would definitely lose in a he said/she said scenario...
One also has to keep in mind that trauma could lead to strange behaviour, so I'd be interested in knowing if there already were these kind of stories before the alleged assault happened.
However, this is the court of public opinion, so voters will ultimately decide who they trust more.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/15/tara-reade-left-trail-of-aggrieved-acquaintances-260771
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On May 16 2020 05:33 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2020 05:30 Sent. wrote:
Why are you assuming mail-in voting is the opposite of disenfranchisement? Because its easier to find time to drop an envelope in the maibox then it is to spend several hours standing in line?
It's not easier. Obviously it should take less time, but it's harder to vote by mail properly because it requires more mental effort to handle the related formalities. Mail-in voting leads to a higher percentage of invalid votes, especially from poorly educated people.
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On May 16 2020 06:14 Sent. wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2020 05:33 Gorsameth wrote:On May 16 2020 05:30 Sent. wrote:
Why are you assuming mail-in voting is the opposite of disenfranchisement? Because its easier to find time to drop an envelope in the maibox then it is to spend several hours standing in line? It's not easier. Obviously it should take less time, but it's harder to vote by mail properly because it requires more mental effort to handle the related formalities. Mail-in voting leads to a higher percentage of invalid votes, especially of from poorly educated people. Source that shows the higher percentage of invalid votes counters any increase in participation please.
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Did I claim it counters anything
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On May 16 2020 06:14 Sent. wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2020 05:33 Gorsameth wrote:On May 16 2020 05:30 Sent. wrote:
Why are you assuming mail-in voting is the opposite of disenfranchisement? Because its easier to find time to drop an envelope in the maibox then it is to spend several hours standing in line? It's not easier. Obviously it should take less time, but it's harder to vote by mail properly because it requires more mental effort to handle the related formalities. Mail-in voting leads to a higher percentage of invalid votes, especially from poorly educated people. Yeah I can certainly see that being a bit more of an issue, but I also think its easier and more likely to be mitigated by proper clear forms and help from friends/family/community that it easily out ways the issues of long poll lines in the US and how that makes it harder, especially for people working long hours or multiple jobs, to vote.
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On May 16 2020 06:39 Sent. wrote:
Did I claim it counters anything
Are you asserting that mail-in voting leads to the casting of fewer valid votes? Just trying to figure out how you’re using the concept of ease here, if widespread availability of mail-in voting leads to the casting of more valid votes, than it would highly likely that mail-in voting is an easier option for many people.
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On May 16 2020 06:50 farvacola wrote:Are you asserting that mail-in voting leads to the casting of fewer valid votes?
Yes, but I'm not claiming it counters anything because I have no idea how those extremely long waiting lines work in the US. If it's just the average Joe voting normally vs the average Joe voting by mail then yes, I'm claiming mail-in voting leads to fewer valid votes because you need to add additional formalities to make sure the people counting the votes won't know who sent the votes to them. I mean that the Joe has to make a few more steps to cast his vote properly and every step is an opportunity to mess up.
I don't have any data about mail-in voting, but I do have something about making voting harder for people with reading comprehension problems, which is obviously an area where underprivileged groups suffer the most.
We tried introducing a new, apparently counter-intuitive voting ballots in 2014 local elections in Poland and that resulted in 18% invalid votes, which meant 4-6% more invalid votes in in comparison to three previous local elections (2010, 2006 and 2002) where the invalid votes amounted to 12-14% of total votes. To make things worse, there were a lot of valid, but likely unintentional votes, as the party whose candidates were listed on the first page of the ballot (the ballot looked like a mini-book, each party had its own page) outperformed its pre-election polls by a significant margin because some voters assumed they have to select someone presented on the first page of the ballot.
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I see where you're coming from, but I don't think it follows that adding mail-in voting as a widespread measure necessarily undermines other methods of voting that should still be available. As many methods of voting as possible is the ideal scenario, and where people are pushing for purely mail-in voting, I think it's a mistake.
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In Austria its an extra envelope and a signature. Don't think this leads to more invalid votes since the paper you make your X on is the same as in the booth.
Well maybe some for missing the sig.
You do have to flil in a form beforehand (essentially your ID number) but if you mess this up you don't get your ballot so no increase in invalid votes.
Don't know how it works in the US though. From what I know from the voting system I imagine you get mailed the pieces of a Rube Goldberg machine and an Ikea like self-assembly manual.
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There are a few additional ways to vote incorrectly with mail-in ballots. (I only have experience with the german ballots, but the system you describe for austria sounds similar)
For example, you can fail to do the whole thing anonymously by writing stuff onto the envelope with the ballot, or by putting the ballot into the outside envelope, which does have your name on it. Or put the paper which states that you are a valid voter into the inside envelope.
Furthermore, from my experience as an election vote counting helper guy, a bunch of people ask how the ballot works every time. They cannot do that with mail-in voting.
However, this is only relevant when it is the only option. Having the choice to do mail-in voting is reasonable.
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It looks like people also trust less the integrity of mail voting. Trump is yelling that every election that has such dispositive is "rigged" without any evidence; I kind of wonder if that matters at all or not.
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Trump will scream that every election which he loses, or in which he loses the popular vote, is rigged, no matter what the method of voting is. He will also claim that any election in which he wins and wins the popular vote is the best and truest expression of the will of the people in the history of the world.
As such, i don't think Trumps opinion on voting methods is particularly reasonable or well-thought out, and should be discarded. You can not satisfy him or his cult anyways, because any critique they voice is not based on the method, but the result.
If you view any election that your dear leader loses as invalid and rigged, your opinion on voting methods should be discarded.
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I mean I know there is no doubt that the whole claim of "rigging" makes no sense at all; I wonder a bit though how many people buy into it and how much it matters. If a really significant portion of the electorate really believes the elections are rigged, american democracy is in huge troubles. In that regard, I guess the whole mail voting dispositive will be exploited to death by Trump and his minions.
I guess that if Trump loses, it will be a real stress test for american institutions. I expect them to hold, at least this time around simply because I think a lot of GOP congressmen will be actually really relieved to see such a man out of the picture. In four years, I am not so sure...
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EPT
