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On May 09 2018 03:37 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2018 03:24 Plansix wrote:
It is official. We are backing out of the deal, leaving our allies with the hard choice of agreeing with the President or ignoring him and continuing to work with Iran. And giving Iran the excuse to go right back to developing nuclear weapons. I'm expecting the rest give Trump the finger and keep working with Iran. Daring Republican to sanction them for working with Iran. The real question is when will Israel go to war backed up by the US.
US-only sanctions would be pretty toothless when you have the Eurozone and the rest of the world trading with Iran. Given that it seems like it would be Iran's best interest to keep to the deal while making noises about how the Great Satan can't be trusted (but the rest of the world is ok).
Seems like it'd actually end up hurting the US more as Iranian markets open up. For example, Airbus will get all that airplane business and Boeing has to just sit on the side.
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United Kingdom10011 Posts
On May 09 2018 03:46 Nebuchad wrote:
If Bolton gets his way and this escalates into a war I really hope Europe doesn't back you guys. What a load of nonsense.
The UK will damn well do what they're told, that's for sure.
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I can only assume that everyone is going to try their best to ignore the US, tell Iran that they should as well and make it past his presidency.
But it's hard. The sanctions punish companies (and nations) that deal with Iran, so anyone ignoring the US on this is not only ignoring them but going to get punished themselves as well.
And with that said I don't even know what the plan is if they don't manage to do that. Let's say Iran answers with a "you know what? Okay, we're starting our nuclear program again" kind of response because of the sactions as welll as other countries going along with the US. What's the response to that going to be?
On May 09 2018 03:46 ticklishmusic wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2018 03:37 Gorsameth wrote:On May 09 2018 03:24 Plansix wrote:https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/993877703601291265It is official. We are backing out of the deal, leaving our allies with the hard choice of agreeing with the President or ignoring him and continuing to work with Iran. And giving Iran the excuse to go right back to developing nuclear weapons. I'm expecting the rest give Trump the finger and keep working with Iran. Daring Republican to sanction them for working with Iran. The real question is when will Israel go to war backed up by the US. US-only sanctions would be pretty toothless when you have the Eurozone and the rest of the world trading with Iran. Given that it seems like it would be Iran's best interest to keep to the deal while making noises about how the Great Satan can't be trusted (but the rest of the world is ok). Seems like it'd actually end up hurting the US more as Iranian markets open up. For example, Airbus will get all that airplane business and Boeing has to just sit on the side. https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/993926048055259142
hard to tell. Like I said above, the sanctions supposedly don't just forbid US companies etc to buy Iranian oil (or whatever) but also punishes other companies (let's say a german one) which does so by not letting them deal with american banks if I understood it correctly. Which can hurt that german company as well.
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This is it. This is the moment that USA gets dragged into Netanyahu's desire for war. Despite everything Trump says about American interventionalism, every word he spouts seems headed towards war, by hook or crook. I can only hope that this time UK wouldn't be dragged along but I wouldn't hold my breath.
As for American sanctions, as long as the US Dollar is the international currency, the Americans have reach to punish any company that does trade in USD with Iran, though we may find a strange rise in transaction in renminbi.
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On May 09 2018 03:56 Toadesstern wrote:I can only assume that everyone is going to try their best to ignore the US, tell Iran that they should as well and make it past his presidency. But it's hard. The sanctions punish companies (and nations) that deal with Iran, so anyone ignoring the US on this is not only ignoring them but going to get punished themselves as well. And with that said I don't even know what the plan is if they don't manage to do that. Let's say Iran answers with a "you know what? Okay, we're starting our nuclear program again" kind of response because of the sactions as welll as other countries going along with the US. What's the response to that going to be? Show nested quote +On May 09 2018 03:46 ticklishmusic wrote:On May 09 2018 03:37 Gorsameth wrote:On May 09 2018 03:24 Plansix wrote:https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/993877703601291265It is official. We are backing out of the deal, leaving our allies with the hard choice of agreeing with the President or ignoring him and continuing to work with Iran. And giving Iran the excuse to go right back to developing nuclear weapons. I'm expecting the rest give Trump the finger and keep working with Iran. Daring Republican to sanction them for working with Iran. The real question is when will Israel go to war backed up by the US. US-only sanctions would be pretty toothless when you have the Eurozone and the rest of the world trading with Iran. Given that it seems like it would be Iran's best interest to keep to the deal while making noises about how the Great Satan can't be trusted (but the rest of the world is ok). Seems like it'd actually end up hurting the US more as Iranian markets open up. For example, Airbus will get all that airplane business and Boeing has to just sit on the side. https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/993926048055259142 hard to tell. Like I said above, the sanctions supposedly don't just forbid US companies etc to buy Iranian oil (or whatever) but also punishes other companies (let's say a german one) which does so by not letting them deal with american banks if I understood it correctly. Which can hurt that german company as well. Hence my comment on daring the Republicans to sanction German (or other) companies for dealing with Iran.
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If the US wants to basically withdraw from international trade over this, I'm not sure what to say. The US is shooting itself in the foot by pulling out of the Iran deal, it would be shooting itself in the head if it tried a US vs world trade war.
It's quite possible Trump is stupid enough to not understand how interconnected trade and economics are though and that he can just go ahead and sanction Volkswagen or something with no impact to the US.
Also, meanwhile in Congress...
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Huh? Isn't that strange. They were cheering him on till he went ahead and did exactly what they wanted him to do. I would had thought that the Republican Party would be declaring this as a successful policy decision.
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On May 09 2018 04:17 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Huh? Isn't that strange. They were cheering him on till he went ahead and did exactly what they wanted him to do. I would had thought that the Republican Party would be declaring this as a successful policy decision.
Saying they want to get rid of X while really wanting to keep it is a Republican staple.
See the ACA aswell.
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Kyle Cheney’s analysis of their statements seems deeply flawed. Both statements criticize the Iran deal and seem to call for a new deal or improved deal. I didn’t see anything saying they wanted to stay in the old one.
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On May 09 2018 04:31 RenSC2 wrote:
Kyle Cheney’s analysis of their statements seems deeply flawed. Both statements criticize the Iran deal and seem to call for a new deal or improved deal. I didn’t see anything saying they wanted to stay in the old one.
What is a better deal and what incetive does Iran and the rest of the world have to agree to it.
Edit: And what is wrong with the current deal
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Unless this is all a prelude for another war or just Trump needing to rip apart any of Obama's accomplishments, I don't really see the benefit. Further isolating U.S. allies and alienating themselves from any diplomatic efforts doesn't seem to help their standing. It's always a black and white, no compromise deal with Trump, even with something that most agree had the right idea and needed tweaking rather than an annihilation.
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Nah. No war. The military gamed out a conflict with Iran 10 years ago and it went badly. Our military position against Iran has not improved in 10 years. Further, we don't have the resources in place for anything but a pinprick strike like we do with Syria/Assad. This is just Trump wrecking Pax Americana and withdrawing America from its global leadership role. Countries will now be free to pursue their own bilateral deals without America wrangling the global powers into any kind of consensus. Iran can resume its weapons production freely now since the USA won't do anything and Europe doesn't care. Trump just made America smaller so that other countries can pursue their interests at their discretion.
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On May 09 2018 04:33 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2018 04:31 RenSC2 wrote:
Kyle Cheney’s analysis of their statements seems deeply flawed. Both statements criticize the Iran deal and seem to call for a new deal or improved deal. I didn’t see anything saying they wanted to stay in the old one. What is a better deal and what incetive does Iran and the rest of the world have to agree to it. Edit: And what is wrong with the current deal
Read their statements from within the tweet for where they think the deal should be improved.
I think the USA should have stayed in the deal. I just think the reporting on what the Republicans said was misleading. Both statements were heavily critical of the Iran deal and demanded a better one. One did mention staying in the deal while they work for a better deal.
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On May 09 2018 04:36 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Unless this is all a prelude for another war or just Trump needing to rip apart any of Obama's accomplishments, I don't really see the benefit. Further isolating U.S. allies and alienating themselves from any diplomatic efforts doesn't seem to help their standing. It's always a black and white, no compromise deal with Trump, even with something that most agree had the right idea and needed tweaking rather than an annihilation.
Most of the foreign policy officials agree with the assessment that there this does nothing for the US. It does let the Republican party say they are fulfilling promises to their base. That doesn’t’ really help the US long term, but that doesn’t seem to matter anymore.
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Meanwhile the Trump administration is trying to take us back to the late 1800s. I really question which group is pushing for reduced labor protections for teenagers. What lobby is pushing to have teenagers preforming hazardous jobs?
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DJT didn't even get the UK on board with bailing out. And the UK says it will continue with JCOPA? So now Iran can kick out the inspectors, and still trade with Europe/China/Russia. DJT didn't even get anyone else on board for his increased sanctions. America will be smaller, and more alone, than ever.
+ Show Spoiler +
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On May 09 2018 04:12 ticklishmusic wrote:If the US wants to basically withdraw from international trade over this, I'm not sure what to say. The US is shooting itself in the foot by pulling out of the Iran deal, it would be shooting itself in the head if it tried a US vs world trade war. It's quite possible Trump is stupid enough to not understand how interconnected trade and economics are though and that he can just go ahead and sanction Volkswagen or something with no impact to the US. Also, meanwhile in Congress... https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/993925655233466369
it does seem that way though:
BERLIN (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s new ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, said on Twitter that German firms operating in Iran should halt activities there immediately after Trump announced the United States was pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal.
Grenell posted on Twitter shortly after Trump said he would immediately reimpose economic sanctions on Tehran, saying, “US sanctions will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy.”
He added: “German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately.”
to give just one example. At the very least they want to push the idea that everyone has to follow the US lead on this and do as Trump says no matter what. Wether the other nations involved will just do that will have to be seen.
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On May 09 2018 04:52 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2018 04:12 ticklishmusic wrote:If the US wants to basically withdraw from international trade over this, I'm not sure what to say. The US is shooting itself in the foot by pulling out of the Iran deal, it would be shooting itself in the head if it tried a US vs world trade war. It's quite possible Trump is stupid enough to not understand how interconnected trade and economics are though and that he can just go ahead and sanction Volkswagen or something with no impact to the US. Also, meanwhile in Congress... https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/993925655233466369 it does seem that way though: Show nested quote +BERLIN (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s new ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, said on Twitter that German firms operating in Iran should halt activities there immediately after Trump announced the United States was pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal.
Grenell posted on Twitter shortly after Trump said he would immediately reimpose economic sanctions on Tehran, saying, “US sanctions will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy.”
He added: “German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately.” to give just one example. At the very least they want to push the idea that everyone has to follow the US lead on this and do as Trump says no matter what. Wether the other nations involved will just do that will have to be seen. Call the bluff.
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On May 09 2018 04:54 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2018 04:52 Toadesstern wrote:On May 09 2018 04:12 ticklishmusic wrote:If the US wants to basically withdraw from international trade over this, I'm not sure what to say. The US is shooting itself in the foot by pulling out of the Iran deal, it would be shooting itself in the head if it tried a US vs world trade war. It's quite possible Trump is stupid enough to not understand how interconnected trade and economics are though and that he can just go ahead and sanction Volkswagen or something with no impact to the US. Also, meanwhile in Congress... https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/993925655233466369 it does seem that way though: BERLIN (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s new ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, said on Twitter that German firms operating in Iran should halt activities there immediately after Trump announced the United States was pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal.
Grenell posted on Twitter shortly after Trump said he would immediately reimpose economic sanctions on Tehran, saying, “US sanctions will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy.”
He added: “German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately.” to give just one example. At the very least they want to push the idea that everyone has to follow the US lead on this and do as Trump says no matter what. Wether the other nations involved will just do that will have to be seen. Call the bluff.
I do hope that everybody will just give Trump the finger here.
Also, in the future everyone needs to know that any deal made with the US needs to be good for you right now, and have a nice exit clause for when the US next goes Mr. Hyde and elects the crazies.
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On May 09 2018 04:50 Plansix wrote:https://twitter.com/benjaminpenn/status/993798092368629760Meanwhile the Trump administration is trying to take us back to the late 1800s. I really question which group is pushing for reduced labor protections for teenagers. What lobby is pushing to have teenagers preforming hazardous jobs?
And the Senate Dem... is a surprise. I thought it would be Manchin, Donnelly or something.
On May 09 2018 04:52 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 09 2018 04:12 ticklishmusic wrote:If the US wants to basically withdraw from international trade over this, I'm not sure what to say. The US is shooting itself in the foot by pulling out of the Iran deal, it would be shooting itself in the head if it tried a US vs world trade war. It's quite possible Trump is stupid enough to not understand how interconnected trade and economics are though and that he can just go ahead and sanction Volkswagen or something with no impact to the US. Also, meanwhile in Congress... https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/993925655233466369 it does seem that way though: Show nested quote +BERLIN (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s new ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, said on Twitter that German firms operating in Iran should halt activities there immediately after Trump announced the United States was pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal.
Grenell posted on Twitter shortly after Trump said he would immediately reimpose economic sanctions on Tehran, saying, “US sanctions will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy.”
He added: “German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately.” to give just one example. At the very least they want to push the idea that everyone has to follow the US lead on this and do as Trump says no matter what. Wether the other nations involved will just do that will have to be seen.
What's German for "go suck eggs"? 
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EPT
