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Looks like even amongst his party supporters only about half of them actually want him as a candidate. Somehow, an astonishing 7% still seem to think he is the embodiment of honesty and ethics.
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On March 05 2017 03:26 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2017 02:36 RvB wrote:On March 04 2017 19:52 bardtown wrote:
It's far too easy to call someone a fascist and provide absolutely no evidence in the current political climate. Can you provide me with any proof that Geert Wilders is a fascist and not, as he claims, somebody who cares about liberal values in his own country? Have all the Dutch people who support him been hoodwinked, or are they all fascists too? Anyone who has been to the Netherlands or knows anything about its history knows that this is one of the most liberal and tolerant places on the planet.
You should try to understand how counterintuitive your behaviour is, because it furthers the agenda you seek to argue against. If you want moderate discussion of controversial issues then you cannot call someone a fascist every time they talk about them. This makes the moderate politicians afraid to bring the issues up, despite the fact that they are hugely concerning to the electorate, which creates a vacuum within the discussion which only those who do not care about your opinion can fill.
Anyway, for you to make those accusations with such confidence I am sure you must have ample and convincing evidence. Please do share. Wilders follows some liberal values of our country like gay rights and things but he's very selective. The closing of mosques and prohibition of the Koran has nothing to do with liberalism and tolerance. So while The Netherlands is very liberal in some regards that doesn't mean Wilders is. Yes, understood. I think he goes too far but there is a kernel of truth in the notion that tolerating intolerance on the basis that tolerance is a virtue is somewhat paradoxical. If moderates were taking this concern seriously then there would be much less draw to those who cross the line.
There is some truth to it yes. What I'm having the most issue with is that they're only applying this logic to a specific subset of people (usually people of muslim origin). We have a very christian conservative party (SGP) which is for the death penalty, didn't have any women represeting the party untill forced by the court, is against assisted suicide etc. Living in a very christian village I know a lot of people who still think that women shouldn't be able to become priests and they're still against people being gay. These are all against the liberal values of our country yet I don't hear anyone complaining about them.The constitution and our laws are what protect our liberal values and they apply to everyone equally.
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On March 05 2017 10:30 a_flayer wrote:Looks like even amongst his party supporters only about half of them actually want him as a candidate. Somehow, an astonishing 7% still seem to think he is the embodiment of honesty and ethics.
7% is really nothing.
I don't believe he'll make it to the elections. His friends are leaving the boat and the party is actively preparing his replacement.
I'm a bit amazed that the french people are so surprised that the former head of the most corrupt government France has had since the war was not a beacon of honesty and integrity.
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So; the latest events regarding Fillon's campaign:
1. More and more elected representatives from his party stopped supporting him (almost 300 as of now).
2. Three presidents of big regions (2 of them being quite symbolic because they were won against the FN, including one against Marine Le Pen) want to meet with Fillon tomorrow to convince him to withdraw; they talk about a “respectful exit”.
3. Sarkozy and Juppé (the potential substitute) talked to each other yesterday. Sarkozy apparently thinks that it “cannot go on like this”.
Now, there was a demonstration today at Paris to support Fillon. 50k people were expected. Some clown from Fillon's team announced 200k people at the rally (in a place where you can gather 50k people at most... 200k people would mean that there were 10 persons per m² [square metre] ...). An hour later, he even announced “between 250 and 300k” lol. More credible sources say that there were between 30 and 40k people. Fillon talked at this meeting in quite an offensive way, but did not formally say that he would “stick until the end”.
A few hours later, at the TV news (he had cancelled the interview earlier in the day... before accepting it again; note that he cancelled a radio interview tomorrow), Fillon said that he does maintain his candidature. He claimed that the success of the demonstration (he used the absurd 200k figure) means that people still support him. He said that no one but him can decide to withdraw. He repeated that TINA (!).
Basically he refuses that the party unplugs him in the backstage. He said this because an exceptional UMP/LR Politburo is summoned tomorrow at 18:00 to talk about Fillon's candidature. I think he wants to make it clear that he and only he is holding the cards. The tenors are trying to push him very carefully towards the exit, but Fillon is playing the angry base vs the party à la Trump.
Juppé announced that he will talk tomorrow at 10:30.
Next House of Sarthe episode on air tomorrow...
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Some polls have started subbing Juppe for Fillon. Meaningful?
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Seems unreasonable of Fillon to not drop out honestly, he's essentially clogging up the whole political process.
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On March 06 2017 05:23 LegalLord wrote:
Some polls have started subbing Juppe for Fillon. Meaningful?
Never know. He said today again that he wouldn't move from there and he only can take the decision. Of course the pressure could become too much, but at that point it's very, very uncertain.
He is completely delusional. I absolutely loath the LR party, but that's not good news and I don't rejoice on it. He represent the democratic right wing forces, he has to go and let someone decent face the left wing, and maybe Marine Le Pen.
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On March 06 2017 05:23 LegalLord wrote:
Some polls have started subbing Juppe for Fillon. Meaningful?
Two polls had Juppé ahead of Fillon when tested, yes. The first one seemed fairly shitty, but both have Juppé qualifying to the second round while Fillon is third. The second one, which was released today, has Fillon collapsing at 17% (1% away from being fourth) and Juppé at 24.5% (second behind Le Pen).
The problem is that Fillon (and Sarkozy before him) radicalized the UMP/LR's electorate so much that Juppé is seen as too moderate, or even a left-winger (!) for them. Plus he was beaten 34:66 at the second round of the primary, so he was clearly rejected by that electorate... even though he would do better in the general population.
It's really funny to observe how the logic of the primary further polarizes each respective side and thus creates an inextricable mess when you have to collect things together afterwards, i. e. when you're no longer only talking to the 20% who belong to your convinced base. So far both candidates coming from primaries are completely unable to master that transition. So much for blindly importing practices from the other side of the Atlantic...
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Hmm, Juppe is clearly cutting solidly into Macron's base.
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On March 06 2017 06:33 LegalLord wrote:
Hmm, Juppe is clearly cutting solidly into Macron's base.
Macron is a UFO in this election. I don't see him to the second round; he doesn't have a party behind him, and historically completely independent candidates tend to collapse before the election. His only chance is that Fillon goes to the bitter end of it and that the whole right wing moderate electorate rallies behind him.
It's a mess; nobody is in a good position. As for Le Pen, she can't really exploit Fillon's fiasco because she had proven to be as much of a corrupt thief as he is.
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Far as I can tell, though, it appears that Fillon gives zero fucks and is in this to the bitter end.
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On March 06 2017 06:46 LegalLord wrote:
Far as I can tell, though, it appears that Fillon gives zero fucks and is in this to the bitter end.
Then it's just a dice roll imo.
Too bad for LR, they faced a divided left wing led by the most unpopular government since the war. Looks like they'll manage to botch that.
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On March 06 2017 06:33 LegalLord wrote:
Hmm, Juppe is clearly cutting solidly into Macron's base.
Yup, they would both fight over the center-right electorate.
On a side note, Fillon lied again tonight; he pretended that some TV channels had announced the suicide of his wife. No such thing had happened. Turns out that we might have two Trump-like candidates in this election...
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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan accused Germany on Sunday of "fascist actions" reminiscent of Nazi times in a growing row over the cancellation of political rallies aimed at drumming up support for him among 1.5 million Turkish citizens in Germany.
German politicians reacted with shock and anger. German Justice Minister Heiko Maas told broadcaster ARD that Erdogan's comments were "absurd, disgraceful and outlandish" and designed to provoke a reaction from Berlin.
But he cautioned against banning Erdogan from visiting Germany or breaking off diplomatic ties, saying that such moves would push Ankara "straight into the arms of (Russian President Vladmir) Putin, which no one wants".
The deputy leader of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party said the Turkish president was "reacting like a wilful child that cannot have his way", while a top leader of the CDU's Bavarian sister party described Erdogan as the "despot of the Bosphorus" and demanded an apology.
German authorities withdrew permission last week for two rallies by Turkish citizens in German cities at which Turkish ministers were to urge a "Yes" vote in a referendum next month on granting Erdogan sweeping new presidential powers. Berlin says the rallies were canceled on security grounds.
However, Turkish Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci spoke at large events in Leverkusen and Cologne on Sunday while protesters stood outside.
The row has further soured relations between the two NATO members amid mounting public outrage in Germany over the arrest in Turkey of a Turkish-German journalist. It has also spurred growing demands for Merkel to produce a more forceful response to Erdogan's words and actions.
A poll conducted for the Bild am Sonntag newspaper showed that 81 percent of Germans believe that Merkel’s government has been too accommodating with Ankara. Germany, under an agreement signed last year, relies on Turkey to prevent a further flood of migrants from pouring into Europe.
The lead article in German news magazine Der Spiegel on Sunday urged Merkel to free herself from the “handcuffs of the migrant deal”.
A defiant Erdogan said he could travel to Germany himself to rally support for the constitutional changes to grant him greater power.
"Germany, you have no relation whatsoever to democracy and you should know that your current actions are no different to those of the Nazi period," Erdogan said at a rally in Istanbul.
"If I want to come to Germany, I will, and if you don't let me in through your doors, if you don't let me speak, then I will make the world rise to its feet," he told a separate event.
Neither Merkel's office nor the foreign ministry had any immediate comment.
Erdogan says he needs the proposed new powers to tackle Kurdish rebels, Islamist militants and other political enemies in a land with a history of unstable coalition governments.
Critics, meanwhile, argue that a "yes" vote in the April 16 referendum would abolish checks and balances that have already been eroded over 15 years of his rule.
Germany and other European countries have grown increasingly concerned about mass arrests and dismissals in the army, judiciary and civil service across Turkey after a failed attempt to topple the president in July.
[...]
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-referendum-germany-idUSKBN16C0KD
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Just like Germany, the Dutch government has also denied the Turkish government the right to campaign in the Netherlands. I'm not quite sure where I stand on the issue. On the one hand, I think it's undesirable to have another country's political campaign being held in your country, especially if you can't guarantee impartiality. On the other hand, the doesn't seem to be any legal way to discriminate against political campaigning as opposed to giving a talk. Based on what is his entry being denied? How far can the Dutch/German government go to deny them from of speech?
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On March 06 2017 16:47 Acrofales wrote:
Just like Germany, the Dutch government has also denied the Turkish government the right to campaign in the Netherlands.
It seems that there is a misunderstanding:
The german gouvernment did not deny the turkish gouvernment the right to campaign.
It was the cities themselves who did that. But the official reasons are not "we don´t want you to campaign here". Ofc every one knows, that this is exactly what they aim for although they say the opposite.
On March 06 2017 16:47 Acrofales wrote:
I'm not quite sure where I stand on the issue. On the one hand, I think it's undesirable to have another country's political campaign being held in your country, especially if you can't guarantee impartiality.
I agree.
On March 06 2017 16:47 Acrofales wrote:
On the other hand, the doesn't seem to be any legal way to discriminate against political campaigning as opposed to giving a talk. Based on what is his entry being denied? How far can the Dutch/German government go to deny them from of speech?
It seems that those speeches by the ministers were never declared as speeches but as turkish weddings or turkish woman dancing parties or whatnot. As there are more people expected to come to a speech by some turkish minister in comparison to a turkish wedding (and turkish weddings can be huge), there needs to be a infrastructure like security, medics in case something goes wrong, protesters etc. So yeah, the turkish gouvernent is not the victim of "the german gouvernment with their nazi methods" as Erdogan says. They are more like victims of their own stupidity/tricks.
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Though I'm never too shy to point out the underlying racism in Germany, this just made me laugh.
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Juppé criticized Fillon quite harshly, but said again that he would not be the plan B. Said that the core of the UMP/LR militants was too “radicalized” and that given those conditions, he would not be able to gather people.
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Sarkozy's plan has worked then, leak the details about Fillon's wife and then replace him when his candidacy crashes and burns.
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Erdogan had his own Reichstag fire, kind of the night of the long knives afterwards, and Gullen is his Röhm-lookalike, but it's the others that behave like the Nazis? Legit as hell.
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EPT
