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On May 24 2021 20:24 Belisarius wrote:
What would we expect to happen if Lukashenko had straight-up shot the plane down?
They should seriously consider doing whatever that is, imo. The same thing likely. A no fly zone and sanctions?
What other options exist but military action? And that seems right out, not only because the EU doesn't want to go to war and because Putin would almost assuredly use it as an excuse to escalate and 'annex' Belarus to 'protect' the Russian population.
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The other option is "tit for tat" . When some plane with Lukashenko or some important Belaursian official is flyin over EU country divert it and arrest them. This would also likely lead to war if not executed perfectly.
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I don't know. I won't pretend I have any real understanding of the country's economy or what might still be available to affect it. Maybe there really is nothing left short of military action, which obviously isn't a good idea in Putin's backyard.
If there is anything left, it should be happening.
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The thing is poverty itself is not enough to inspire people to enforce regime change. It take extreme poverty/economic colapse and this wont happen as long there is Russia to lend Lukashenko a hand. As long as Russia is involved i dont think there is any real possibility of change in Belarus.
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One important thing about Belarus should be mentioned I guess. They had an opportunity to change the regime during presidental elections, Lukashenko was not ready back in days, he was sincerely surprised and made a few panic moves. People of Belarus were trying to execute soft revolution to avoid possible situation like on Maidan in Ukraine a few years prior. Turns out - you cannot change "authoritarian" regime this way, now Lukashenko is ready to spend billions of credit money to backup local law enforcement.
Honestly it feels a bit surreal considering Belarus is not that far away geographically, it's Europe after all... While their main communist remnant is still trying to hang for the power no matter the price
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Well Belarus is Europe’s North Korea. Nothing will change as long as their ally keep supporting them, which is probably forever since they provide a nice buffer with the West.
A war is out of the question, obviously, and those regimes care much much more about their survival than any economic prosperity, and know they can rely on their « big brothers » to keep their heads above water.
I have some friends from Belarus, they are quite devastated and very pessimistic. As long as Putin stays in power and Russia will remain a brutal dictatorship, so will Belarus.
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Belarus being Europe’s North Korea is a bit of an odd analogy considering that they are neither geographically or as politically isolated. I don't really see what options there is that can influence the course of Belarus. Prominent Belarusian figures are already under travel bans and asset freeze. A like for like, a kidnapping will only serve to normalise such tactics.
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On May 26 2021 01:24 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Well Belarus is Europe’s North Korea. Nothing will change as long as their ally keep supporting them, which is probably forever since they provide a nice buffer with the West.
A war is out of the question, obviously, and those regimes care much much more about their survival than any economic prosperity, and know they can rely on their « big brothers » to keep their heads above water.
I have some friends from Belarus, they are quite devastated and very pessimistic. As long as Putin stays in power and Russia will remain a brutal dictatorship, so will Belarus.
Belarus has one of the lowest poverty rates in the World, something like 1%, and also has a very small margin of income equality compared to the rest of Europe. They have benefited a lot financially from having half their exports and imports coming from and going to Russia. This has also put them in a position of dependence, if they move away from Russia the consequences to their economy and the standard of living would be harsh and immediate.
Lukashenko and the elite are far from perfect but the general population knows that anyone coming in through a soft revolution would immediately get to work robbing the country blind with the criminals being protected by one foreign interest or other, something that has happened with all soft revolutions to date. Sanctions and limiting trade only push Belarus towards Russia more and more. Lukashenko has no one else to turn to and Russia will use this to pull Belarus more and more into a political union. The people have a choice between 'it not good but its not bad either' or 'economic collapse and banditry'.
The EU could have pumped huge amounts of money into taking over imports/exports, taken over the country through economic means and then hand pick their own puppets over time though 'elections'. Can Russia prop up the Belarus economy on its own? Of course not. But by the time the walls start closing in they will control all of it and can prop up puppets of their own.
What they need now is someone that is anti Russian enough to get massive aid from the West while at the same time pro Russian enough to get the sweet discounts from Moscow. But they dont have that person.
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An interesting take considering the general population wanted him and his cronies gone so Lukashenko rigged elections he would had otherwise lost.
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Interesting PR move.
Barcelona, Spain - Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said his government would pardon the nine jailed leaders of Catalonia's failed 2017 independence bid on Tuesday as a first step towards ending the political conflict over the wealthy region.
As he spoke in Barcelona's opera house, several hundred separatists protested outside, demanding still more concessions, and one member of the audience interrupted him for a few seconds shouting "Independence."
"I am convinced that getting these nine people out of prison ... is a clear message of concord," Sanchez said on Monday at the event in the region's main city attended by around 300 members of Catalan civil society.
"Catalonia, Catalans we love you," Sanchez said in Catalan at the end of his address, with the Spanish, Catalan and EU flags behind him.
Polls show about 60% of Spaniards are against freeing the politicians who were sentenced for their role in an unauthorized independence referendum and a short-lived declaration of independence. Madrid responded at the time by imposing direct control over the region from 2017-2018.
But Sanchez is betting the time has now come for a political gamble that he hopes will ultimately cement his legacy, weaken the independence push and resolve the country's biggest political crisis in decades.
"We don't expect that those seeking independence will change their ideals, but we expect (they) understand there is no path outside the law," Sanchez said at the event.
The cabinet's next chance to rubber stamp the pardons comes at its meeting on Tuesday, which should lead to the separatists' release from jail a few days later.
Source
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Northern Ireland25996 Posts
I suppose time will tell.
How often do the wider populace support particular aspects of resolution, or attempted resolution of conflict in this domain?
Genuinely unsure on that but I’d say, extremely rarely?
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I don't know the numbers in Catalonia, but I don't think there are many people opposed, and for the ones in favour, for many it's a make or break point. People see Madrid as the enemy, at the very least pardoning political prisoners should show he's serious about discussing a solution to the situation.
Meanwhile of those 60% of Spaniards outside of Catalonia who are opposed, I'm willing to bet that 95% of them are mostly uninterested. And those who are firmly opposed and would vote based on that, were voting PP already anyway.
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Northern Ireland25996 Posts
On June 23 2021 05:00 Acrofales wrote:I don't know the numbers in Catalonia, but I don't think there are many people opposed, and for the ones in favour, for many it's a make or break point. People see Madrid as the enemy, at the very least pardoning political prisoners should show he's serious about discussing a solution to the situation. Meanwhile of those 60% of Spaniards outside of Catalonia who are opposed, I'm willing to bet that 95% of them are mostly uninterested. And those who are firmly opposed and would vote based on that, were voting PP already anyway.
Yeah there is something of a difference between ‘if directly asked my opinion on x issue’ and really caring about x issue I guess.
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On June 23 2021 11:38 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2021 05:00 Acrofales wrote:I don't know the numbers in Catalonia, but I don't think there are many people opposed, and for the ones in favour, for many it's a make or break point. People see Madrid as the enemy, at the very least pardoning political prisoners should show he's serious about discussing a solution to the situation. Meanwhile of those 60% of Spaniards outside of Catalonia who are opposed, I'm willing to bet that 95% of them are mostly uninterested. And those who are firmly opposed and would vote based on that, were voting PP already anyway. Yeah there is something of a difference between ‘if directly asked my opinion on x issue’ and really caring about x issue I guess.
This goes double for things that don't have a lasting direct effect on peoples lives. Even if you strongly disagree pardons won't really affect you daily so give it a few weeks or months and it's water under the bridge.
A new tax on your swimming pool however is something that you will be reminded on every month for years to come and the amount of people who disagree with such a tax would not change significantly over time (probably strongly correlated with the number of pool owners...).
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Its water under the bridge if Catalonia Indepedence isssue doesnt come in next few years, which i dont find very likely. Also i think You guys underestimate how much people care about their country integrity.
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Northern Ireland25996 Posts
Given where I’m from that’s generally not something I underestimate. It really does depend on what happens moving forwards and how prominently this issue features in the future.
If Catalan independence returns to the forefront after this, and to be honest I don’t think it’s going anywhere too, then yeah this unpopular move via polling will push forward to being something that really riles people up.
If on the other hand, if even relatively temporarily the Catalan push for independence does subside under the surface then I’m not sure the 60% who disapprove of these pardons will really be hugely irked by these pardons down the line.
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Then we are in agreement. The time will tell i guess, the whole thing will remain swept under a rug until we are clear of COVID i guess.
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The huge backlash against Hungary’s new homophobic law is nice to see. I think we have reached a point where the country has nothing to do in the EU anymore - so it goes with Poland. The fact that the european institutions don’t have an exclusion process for countries that would turn authoritarian is really puzzling though. If anything it shows the rather naive, optimistic faith in liberal democracy that was prevailing when they were designed. I think no one even thought possible that the people would vote for potential dictators.
I kind if wonder how it’s all gonna end.
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they should have faced backlash way earlier. going clearly against the rule of law and democratic norms on european soil and especially withing the EU . in 2021. it is unfathomable. but better they face massive backlash now than never.
let's see what tune they sing once EU money stops flowing.
it's not without irony that countries getting rid of the yoke of communism not too long ago - and a small elite dividing up the spoils among themselves - seem to go back in time. becoming ever more authoritarian and controlling of people. only this time engineered by (socially) conservative forces.
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EPT
