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On February 28 2019 21:20 Longshank wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2019 20:49 pmh wrote:
"On the other hand there's the risk of no Brexit at all"
That is not seen as a risk I think,that is seen as a potential bonus. Not to the ERG, of which I was talking about. However, comments from some of their members yesterday seem to suggest they might back May and take the battle to the next negotiation(which really is the important one). They will likely expect to get some concession from May in order to support her, such as her stepping down as PM.
There's no reason for ERG to back May, since they are for a hard brexit. The ERG don't want May to step down. There is no demand from ERG for May to resign, if May does whatever the ERG says. They want May to take the blame for a hard brexit that they are trying to push. To be fair though they don't particularily care who takes the fall, as long as a hard brexit happens and it isn't them that takes the blame.
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On February 28 2019 23:05 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2019 21:20 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 20:49 pmh wrote:
"On the other hand there's the risk of no Brexit at all"
That is not seen as a risk I think,that is seen as a potential bonus. Not to the ERG, of which I was talking about. However, comments from some of their members yesterday seem to suggest they might back May and take the battle to the next negotiation(which really is the important one). They will likely expect to get some concession from May in order to support her, such as her stepping down as PM. There's no reason for ERG to back May, since they are for a hard brexit. The ERG don't want May to step down. There is no demand from ERG for May to resign, if May does whatever the ERG says. They want May to take the blame for a hard brexit that they are trying to push. To be fair though they don't particularily care who takes the fall, as long as a hard brexit happens and it isn't them that takes the blame.
I would have agreed some weeks ago, but with Cooper's amendment passing and May's anouncement it's quite clear that no-deal won't happen. Parliament will actively have to vote for it and they will not do that. The only credible options left is May's deal or second referendum.
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On March 01 2019 02:40 Longshank wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2019 23:05 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On February 28 2019 21:20 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 20:49 pmh wrote:
"On the other hand there's the risk of no Brexit at all"
That is not seen as a risk I think,that is seen as a potential bonus. Not to the ERG, of which I was talking about. However, comments from some of their members yesterday seem to suggest they might back May and take the battle to the next negotiation(which really is the important one). They will likely expect to get some concession from May in order to support her, such as her stepping down as PM. There's no reason for ERG to back May, since they are for a hard brexit. The ERG don't want May to step down. There is no demand from ERG for May to resign, if May does whatever the ERG says. They want May to take the blame for a hard brexit that they are trying to push. To be fair though they don't particularily care who takes the fall, as long as a hard brexit happens and it isn't them that takes the blame. I would have agreed some weeks ago, but with Cooper's amendment passing and May's anouncement it's quite clear that no-deal won't happen. Parliament will actively have to vote for it and they will not do that. The only credible options left is May's deal or second referendum. No deal is the default, it's what happens if Parliament does nothing. Parliament needs to actively do something to avoid having no deal.
Coopers amendment basically does nothing the way I see it because extending article 50 is not up to Britain but all 27 EU members and there have been plenty of EU voices saying that an extension is pointless if there is no agreement in sight, and rightfully so.
This is Parliament once again kicking the can down the road and not taking even a single step closer to any form of agreement.
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On March 01 2019 02:54 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2019 02:40 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 23:05 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On February 28 2019 21:20 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 20:49 pmh wrote:
"On the other hand there's the risk of no Brexit at all"
That is not seen as a risk I think,that is seen as a potential bonus. Not to the ERG, of which I was talking about. However, comments from some of their members yesterday seem to suggest they might back May and take the battle to the next negotiation(which really is the important one). They will likely expect to get some concession from May in order to support her, such as her stepping down as PM. There's no reason for ERG to back May, since they are for a hard brexit. The ERG don't want May to step down. There is no demand from ERG for May to resign, if May does whatever the ERG says. They want May to take the blame for a hard brexit that they are trying to push. To be fair though they don't particularily care who takes the fall, as long as a hard brexit happens and it isn't them that takes the blame. I would have agreed some weeks ago, but with Cooper's amendment passing and May's anouncement it's quite clear that no-deal won't happen. Parliament will actively have to vote for it and they will not do that. The only credible options left is May's deal or second referendum. No deal is the default, it's what happens if Parliament does nothing. Parliament needs to actively do something to avoid having no deal. Coopers amendment basically does nothing the way I see it because extending article 50 is not up to Britain but all 27 EU members and there have been plenty of EU voices saying that an extension is pointless if there is no agreement in sight, and rightfully so. This is Parliament once again kicking the can down the road and not taking even a single step closer to any form of agreement.
I think you're looking at it the wrong way. What Cooper's amendment does is that it, in tandem with the statements from the EU on a purpose for an extension, forces the UK to make a decision by the end of March. And it's quite clear they won't decide on no-deal.
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On March 01 2019 03:17 Longshank wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2019 02:54 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 02:40 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 23:05 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On February 28 2019 21:20 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 20:49 pmh wrote:
"On the other hand there's the risk of no Brexit at all"
That is not seen as a risk I think,that is seen as a potential bonus. Not to the ERG, of which I was talking about. However, comments from some of their members yesterday seem to suggest they might back May and take the battle to the next negotiation(which really is the important one). They will likely expect to get some concession from May in order to support her, such as her stepping down as PM. There's no reason for ERG to back May, since they are for a hard brexit. The ERG don't want May to step down. There is no demand from ERG for May to resign, if May does whatever the ERG says. They want May to take the blame for a hard brexit that they are trying to push. To be fair though they don't particularily care who takes the fall, as long as a hard brexit happens and it isn't them that takes the blame. I would have agreed some weeks ago, but with Cooper's amendment passing and May's anouncement it's quite clear that no-deal won't happen. Parliament will actively have to vote for it and they will not do that. The only credible options left is May's deal or second referendum. No deal is the default, it's what happens if Parliament does nothing. Parliament needs to actively do something to avoid having no deal. Coopers amendment basically does nothing the way I see it because extending article 50 is not up to Britain but all 27 EU members and there have been plenty of EU voices saying that an extension is pointless if there is no agreement in sight, and rightfully so. This is Parliament once again kicking the can down the road and not taking even a single step closer to any form of agreement. I think you're looking at it the wrong way. What Cooper's amendment does is that it, in tandem with the statements from the EU on a purpose for an extension, forces the UK to make a decision by the end of March. And it's quite clear they won't decide on no-deal. The UK has had to make a decision by the end of March since they invoked article 50 2 years ago!
Nothing has changed....
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When do elections happen in the UK? They can't be stuck in this limbo forever, right?
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On March 01 2019 03:32 Plansix wrote:
When do elections happen in the UK? They can't be stuck in this limbo forever, right? They just had an election in 2017, May called an early election to try and secure more power which backfired.
Next election is planned for 2022.
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And elections don't really help that much either, because the problem is not entirely split along party lines. If the UK didn't have two party FPTP, the two parties could split up into a Brexit and a no Brexit faction each, and an election could solve this problem. Due to two party FPTP and since both parties are half for Brexit and half against Brexit, your vote doesn't really say anything with regards to this problem.
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On March 01 2019 03:25 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2019 03:17 Longshank wrote:On March 01 2019 02:54 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 02:40 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 23:05 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On February 28 2019 21:20 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 20:49 pmh wrote:
"On the other hand there's the risk of no Brexit at all"
That is not seen as a risk I think,that is seen as a potential bonus. Not to the ERG, of which I was talking about. However, comments from some of their members yesterday seem to suggest they might back May and take the battle to the next negotiation(which really is the important one). They will likely expect to get some concession from May in order to support her, such as her stepping down as PM. There's no reason for ERG to back May, since they are for a hard brexit. The ERG don't want May to step down. There is no demand from ERG for May to resign, if May does whatever the ERG says. They want May to take the blame for a hard brexit that they are trying to push. To be fair though they don't particularily care who takes the fall, as long as a hard brexit happens and it isn't them that takes the blame. I would have agreed some weeks ago, but with Cooper's amendment passing and May's anouncement it's quite clear that no-deal won't happen. Parliament will actively have to vote for it and they will not do that. The only credible options left is May's deal or second referendum. No deal is the default, it's what happens if Parliament does nothing. Parliament needs to actively do something to avoid having no deal. Coopers amendment basically does nothing the way I see it because extending article 50 is not up to Britain but all 27 EU members and there have been plenty of EU voices saying that an extension is pointless if there is no agreement in sight, and rightfully so. This is Parliament once again kicking the can down the road and not taking even a single step closer to any form of agreement. I think you're looking at it the wrong way. What Cooper's amendment does is that it, in tandem with the statements from the EU on a purpose for an extension, forces the UK to make a decision by the end of March. And it's quite clear they won't decide on no-deal. I want to cry... The UK has had to make a decision by the end of March since they invoked article 50 2 years ago! Nothing has changed....
Heh, yeah it's kind of absurd. I'll admit, as someone not directly affected by Brexit, I'll miss it when it's over. Or at least when this initial circus has calmed down. Brexit won't be 'over' for the UK in quite some time. They will have hard fights over the coming negotiations but the settings won't be the same. The various factions, internal fights, the plethora of irreconcilable opinions, the stakes, the deadline, the characters and the debates in the HoP has made for a fascinating spectacle. I'm sure I wouldn't enjoy it as much if I was living in the UK or in Ireland...
Anyway, what I mentioned earlier is how I understand the amendment is supposed to work in theory and presumes that a majority of MPs in the end act rationally(yeah right!).
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On March 01 2019 02:40 Longshank wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2019 23:05 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On February 28 2019 21:20 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 20:49 pmh wrote:
"On the other hand there's the risk of no Brexit at all"
That is not seen as a risk I think,that is seen as a potential bonus. Not to the ERG, of which I was talking about. However, comments from some of their members yesterday seem to suggest they might back May and take the battle to the next negotiation(which really is the important one). They will likely expect to get some concession from May in order to support her, such as her stepping down as PM. There's no reason for ERG to back May, since they are for a hard brexit. The ERG don't want May to step down. There is no demand from ERG for May to resign, if May does whatever the ERG says. They want May to take the blame for a hard brexit that they are trying to push. To be fair though they don't particularily care who takes the fall, as long as a hard brexit happens and it isn't them that takes the blame. I would have agreed some weeks ago, but with Cooper's amendment passing and May's anouncement it's quite clear that no-deal won't happen. Parliament will actively have to vote for it and they will not do that. The only credible options left is May's deal or second referendum.
Tell me, in the hypothetical situation that ERG just decides to agree to support whatever May puts to the vote, what reason does ERG has to demand May to step down as a concession?
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On March 01 2019 04:36 Longshank wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2019 03:25 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 03:17 Longshank wrote:On March 01 2019 02:54 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 02:40 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 23:05 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On February 28 2019 21:20 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 20:49 pmh wrote:
"On the other hand there's the risk of no Brexit at all"
That is not seen as a risk I think,that is seen as a potential bonus. Not to the ERG, of which I was talking about. However, comments from some of their members yesterday seem to suggest they might back May and take the battle to the next negotiation(which really is the important one). They will likely expect to get some concession from May in order to support her, such as her stepping down as PM. There's no reason for ERG to back May, since they are for a hard brexit. The ERG don't want May to step down. There is no demand from ERG for May to resign, if May does whatever the ERG says. They want May to take the blame for a hard brexit that they are trying to push. To be fair though they don't particularily care who takes the fall, as long as a hard brexit happens and it isn't them that takes the blame. I would have agreed some weeks ago, but with Cooper's amendment passing and May's anouncement it's quite clear that no-deal won't happen. Parliament will actively have to vote for it and they will not do that. The only credible options left is May's deal or second referendum. No deal is the default, it's what happens if Parliament does nothing. Parliament needs to actively do something to avoid having no deal. Coopers amendment basically does nothing the way I see it because extending article 50 is not up to Britain but all 27 EU members and there have been plenty of EU voices saying that an extension is pointless if there is no agreement in sight, and rightfully so. This is Parliament once again kicking the can down the road and not taking even a single step closer to any form of agreement. I think you're looking at it the wrong way. What Cooper's amendment does is that it, in tandem with the statements from the EU on a purpose for an extension, forces the UK to make a decision by the end of March. And it's quite clear they won't decide on no-deal. I want to cry... The UK has had to make a decision by the end of March since they invoked article 50 2 years ago! Nothing has changed.... Heh, yeah it's kind of absurd. I'll admit, as someone not directly affected by Brexit, I'll miss it when it's over. Or at least when this initial circus has calmed down. Brexit won't be 'over' for the UK in quite some time. They will have hard fights over the coming negotiations but the settings won't be the same. The various factions, internal fights, the plethora of irreconcilable opinions, the stakes, the deadline, the characters and the debates in the HoP has made for a fascinating spectacle. I'm sure I wouldn't enjoy it as much if I was living in the UK or in Ireland... Anyway, what I mentioned earlier is how I understand the amendment is supposed to work in theory and presumes that a majority of MPs in the end act rationally(yeah right!). The amendment means that if May's deal is defeated for a second time (vote on March 12) there will be a Parliament vote to chose between a no-deal Brexit or to ask the EU for a 3 month extension.
An extension that would require all 27 EU members to agree to, which is sketchy if there is no reason to assume the situation will be any different after those 3 month.
So its more a vote between for sure No-deal and likely No-deal because the second option is not up to the UK to decide.
It just aims to kick the can a little bit further down the road.
Its useless without major changes to the political landscape, which I would argue is unlikely since May survived the last vote of no confidence and again, nothing has changed since. (the party throwing her out is impossible since she won that vote aswell and they can't hold another for a year)
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On March 01 2019 04:49 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2019 02:40 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 23:05 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On February 28 2019 21:20 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 20:49 pmh wrote:
"On the other hand there's the risk of no Brexit at all"
That is not seen as a risk I think,that is seen as a potential bonus. Not to the ERG, of which I was talking about. However, comments from some of their members yesterday seem to suggest they might back May and take the battle to the next negotiation(which really is the important one). They will likely expect to get some concession from May in order to support her, such as her stepping down as PM. There's no reason for ERG to back May, since they are for a hard brexit. The ERG don't want May to step down. There is no demand from ERG for May to resign, if May does whatever the ERG says. They want May to take the blame for a hard brexit that they are trying to push. To be fair though they don't particularily care who takes the fall, as long as a hard brexit happens and it isn't them that takes the blame. I would have agreed some weeks ago, but with Cooper's amendment passing and May's anouncement it's quite clear that no-deal won't happen. Parliament will actively have to vote for it and they will not do that. The only credible options left is May's deal or second referendum. Tell me, in the hypothetical situation that ERG just decides to agree to support whatever May puts to the vote, what reason does ERG has to demand May to step down as a concession? Mind you, this is obviously speculation but it was explained by some political 'expert' on Sky News this morning and, to me, it made a lot of sense. Basically, now that it seems extremely unlikely that you will leave with no-deal on the 29th of March, the ERG will have to make the most of the options left. May's deal is very vague on what the future relationship will look like after transition period. Much(most?) of it is still to be negotiated. By having May step down they hope to replace her and have a harder Brexiteer in charge those negotiations. They have already tried and failed once in December(iirc). For May it would be seen as a success if she managed to get her deal through and leave as not a complete failure.
You have to ask, what other options does the ERG have? Would they rather see a second referendum? That's unlikely if 'their' option wouldn't even be on the ballot paper.
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On March 01 2019 04:49 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2019 04:36 Longshank wrote:On March 01 2019 03:25 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 03:17 Longshank wrote:On March 01 2019 02:54 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 02:40 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 23:05 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On February 28 2019 21:20 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 20:49 pmh wrote:
"On the other hand there's the risk of no Brexit at all"
That is not seen as a risk I think,that is seen as a potential bonus. Not to the ERG, of which I was talking about. However, comments from some of their members yesterday seem to suggest they might back May and take the battle to the next negotiation(which really is the important one). They will likely expect to get some concession from May in order to support her, such as her stepping down as PM. There's no reason for ERG to back May, since they are for a hard brexit. The ERG don't want May to step down. There is no demand from ERG for May to resign, if May does whatever the ERG says. They want May to take the blame for a hard brexit that they are trying to push. To be fair though they don't particularily care who takes the fall, as long as a hard brexit happens and it isn't them that takes the blame. I would have agreed some weeks ago, but with Cooper's amendment passing and May's anouncement it's quite clear that no-deal won't happen. Parliament will actively have to vote for it and they will not do that. The only credible options left is May's deal or second referendum. No deal is the default, it's what happens if Parliament does nothing. Parliament needs to actively do something to avoid having no deal. Coopers amendment basically does nothing the way I see it because extending article 50 is not up to Britain but all 27 EU members and there have been plenty of EU voices saying that an extension is pointless if there is no agreement in sight, and rightfully so. This is Parliament once again kicking the can down the road and not taking even a single step closer to any form of agreement. I think you're looking at it the wrong way. What Cooper's amendment does is that it, in tandem with the statements from the EU on a purpose for an extension, forces the UK to make a decision by the end of March. And it's quite clear they won't decide on no-deal. I want to cry... The UK has had to make a decision by the end of March since they invoked article 50 2 years ago! Nothing has changed.... Heh, yeah it's kind of absurd. I'll admit, as someone not directly affected by Brexit, I'll miss it when it's over. Or at least when this initial circus has calmed down. Brexit won't be 'over' for the UK in quite some time. They will have hard fights over the coming negotiations but the settings won't be the same. The various factions, internal fights, the plethora of irreconcilable opinions, the stakes, the deadline, the characters and the debates in the HoP has made for a fascinating spectacle. I'm sure I wouldn't enjoy it as much if I was living in the UK or in Ireland... Anyway, what I mentioned earlier is how I understand the amendment is supposed to work in theory and presumes that a majority of MPs in the end act rationally(yeah right!). The amendment means that if May's deal is defeated for a second time (vote on March 12) there will be a Parliament vote to chose between a no-deal Brexit or to ask the EU for a 3 month extension. An extension that would require all 27 EU members to agree to, which is sketchy if there is no reason to assume the situation will be any different after those 3 month.
But that's the thing, the UK would have to decide a course of action if they want an extension. That means making a decision on May's deal, second ref or no-deal. It seems pretty clear there won't be a no-deal, if left with that option enough MPs will support May. Or a second ref, either of those two.
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On March 01 2019 06:08 Longshank wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2019 04:49 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 04:36 Longshank wrote:On March 01 2019 03:25 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 03:17 Longshank wrote:On March 01 2019 02:54 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 02:40 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 23:05 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On February 28 2019 21:20 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 20:49 pmh wrote:
"On the other hand there's the risk of no Brexit at all"
That is not seen as a risk I think,that is seen as a potential bonus. Not to the ERG, of which I was talking about. However, comments from some of their members yesterday seem to suggest they might back May and take the battle to the next negotiation(which really is the important one). They will likely expect to get some concession from May in order to support her, such as her stepping down as PM. There's no reason for ERG to back May, since they are for a hard brexit. The ERG don't want May to step down. There is no demand from ERG for May to resign, if May does whatever the ERG says. They want May to take the blame for a hard brexit that they are trying to push. To be fair though they don't particularily care who takes the fall, as long as a hard brexit happens and it isn't them that takes the blame. I would have agreed some weeks ago, but with Cooper's amendment passing and May's anouncement it's quite clear that no-deal won't happen. Parliament will actively have to vote for it and they will not do that. The only credible options left is May's deal or second referendum. No deal is the default, it's what happens if Parliament does nothing. Parliament needs to actively do something to avoid having no deal. Coopers amendment basically does nothing the way I see it because extending article 50 is not up to Britain but all 27 EU members and there have been plenty of EU voices saying that an extension is pointless if there is no agreement in sight, and rightfully so. This is Parliament once again kicking the can down the road and not taking even a single step closer to any form of agreement. I think you're looking at it the wrong way. What Cooper's amendment does is that it, in tandem with the statements from the EU on a purpose for an extension, forces the UK to make a decision by the end of March. And it's quite clear they won't decide on no-deal. I want to cry... The UK has had to make a decision by the end of March since they invoked article 50 2 years ago! Nothing has changed.... Heh, yeah it's kind of absurd. I'll admit, as someone not directly affected by Brexit, I'll miss it when it's over. Or at least when this initial circus has calmed down. Brexit won't be 'over' for the UK in quite some time. They will have hard fights over the coming negotiations but the settings won't be the same. The various factions, internal fights, the plethora of irreconcilable opinions, the stakes, the deadline, the characters and the debates in the HoP has made for a fascinating spectacle. I'm sure I wouldn't enjoy it as much if I was living in the UK or in Ireland... Anyway, what I mentioned earlier is how I understand the amendment is supposed to work in theory and presumes that a majority of MPs in the end act rationally(yeah right!). The amendment means that if May's deal is defeated for a second time (vote on March 12) there will be a Parliament vote to chose between a no-deal Brexit or to ask the EU for a 3 month extension. An extension that would require all 27 EU members to agree to, which is sketchy if there is no reason to assume the situation will be any different after those 3 month. But that's the thing, the UK would have to decide a course of action if they want an extension. That means making a decision on May's deal, second ref or no-deal. It seems pretty clear there won't be a no-deal, if left with that option enough MPs will support May. Or a second ref, either of those two. Yeah... because the UK totally wasn't in the exact same situation last time when they gave May a historic No.
Here is how I see it going. May's deal gets voted down yet again. The amendment vote happens. Parliament votes for a 3 month extension. The EU says "What has changed?" Parliament has no answer, the extension vote fails and March 30th we wake up in a post no-deal Brexit world.
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On March 01 2019 06:55 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2019 06:08 Longshank wrote:On March 01 2019 04:49 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 04:36 Longshank wrote:On March 01 2019 03:25 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 03:17 Longshank wrote:On March 01 2019 02:54 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 02:40 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 23:05 Dangermousecatdog wrote:On February 28 2019 21:20 Longshank wrote:
[quote]
Not to the ERG, of which I was talking about. However, comments from some of their members yesterday seem to suggest they might back May and take the battle to the next negotiation(which really is the important one). They will likely expect to get some concession from May in order to support her, such as her stepping down as PM.
There's no reason for ERG to back May, since they are for a hard brexit. The ERG don't want May to step down. There is no demand from ERG for May to resign, if May does whatever the ERG says. They want May to take the blame for a hard brexit that they are trying to push. To be fair though they don't particularily care who takes the fall, as long as a hard brexit happens and it isn't them that takes the blame. I would have agreed some weeks ago, but with Cooper's amendment passing and May's anouncement it's quite clear that no-deal won't happen. Parliament will actively have to vote for it and they will not do that. The only credible options left is May's deal or second referendum. No deal is the default, it's what happens if Parliament does nothing. Parliament needs to actively do something to avoid having no deal. Coopers amendment basically does nothing the way I see it because extending article 50 is not up to Britain but all 27 EU members and there have been plenty of EU voices saying that an extension is pointless if there is no agreement in sight, and rightfully so. This is Parliament once again kicking the can down the road and not taking even a single step closer to any form of agreement. I think you're looking at it the wrong way. What Cooper's amendment does is that it, in tandem with the statements from the EU on a purpose for an extension, forces the UK to make a decision by the end of March. And it's quite clear they won't decide on no-deal. I want to cry... The UK has had to make a decision by the end of March since they invoked article 50 2 years ago! Nothing has changed.... Heh, yeah it's kind of absurd. I'll admit, as someone not directly affected by Brexit, I'll miss it when it's over. Or at least when this initial circus has calmed down. Brexit won't be 'over' for the UK in quite some time. They will have hard fights over the coming negotiations but the settings won't be the same. The various factions, internal fights, the plethora of irreconcilable opinions, the stakes, the deadline, the characters and the debates in the HoP has made for a fascinating spectacle. I'm sure I wouldn't enjoy it as much if I was living in the UK or in Ireland... Anyway, what I mentioned earlier is how I understand the amendment is supposed to work in theory and presumes that a majority of MPs in the end act rationally(yeah right!). The amendment means that if May's deal is defeated for a second time (vote on March 12) there will be a Parliament vote to chose between a no-deal Brexit or to ask the EU for a 3 month extension. An extension that would require all 27 EU members to agree to, which is sketchy if there is no reason to assume the situation will be any different after those 3 month. But that's the thing, the UK would have to decide a course of action if they want an extension. That means making a decision on May's deal, second ref or no-deal. It seems pretty clear there won't be a no-deal, if left with that option enough MPs will support May. Or a second ref, either of those two. Yeah... because the UK totally wasn't in the exact same situation last time when they gave May a historic No. You're absolutely right, they weren't. The point of running down the clock is that you eventually run out of time.
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On March 01 2019 07:11 Longshank wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2019 06:55 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 06:08 Longshank wrote:On March 01 2019 04:49 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 04:36 Longshank wrote:On March 01 2019 03:25 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 03:17 Longshank wrote:On March 01 2019 02:54 Gorsameth wrote:On March 01 2019 02:40 Longshank wrote:On February 28 2019 23:05 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
[quote]
There's no reason for ERG to back May, since they are for a hard brexit. The ERG don't want May to step down. There is no demand from ERG for May to resign, if May does whatever the ERG says. They want May to take the blame for a hard brexit that they are trying to push. To be fair though they don't particularily care who takes the fall, as long as a hard brexit happens and it isn't them that takes the blame. I would have agreed some weeks ago, but with Cooper's amendment passing and May's anouncement it's quite clear that no-deal won't happen. Parliament will actively have to vote for it and they will not do that. The only credible options left is May's deal or second referendum. No deal is the default, it's what happens if Parliament does nothing. Parliament needs to actively do something to avoid having no deal. Coopers amendment basically does nothing the way I see it because extending article 50 is not up to Britain but all 27 EU members and there have been plenty of EU voices saying that an extension is pointless if there is no agreement in sight, and rightfully so. This is Parliament once again kicking the can down the road and not taking even a single step closer to any form of agreement. I think you're looking at it the wrong way. What Cooper's amendment does is that it, in tandem with the statements from the EU on a purpose for an extension, forces the UK to make a decision by the end of March. And it's quite clear they won't decide on no-deal. I want to cry... The UK has had to make a decision by the end of March since they invoked article 50 2 years ago! Nothing has changed.... Heh, yeah it's kind of absurd. I'll admit, as someone not directly affected by Brexit, I'll miss it when it's over. Or at least when this initial circus has calmed down. Brexit won't be 'over' for the UK in quite some time. They will have hard fights over the coming negotiations but the settings won't be the same. The various factions, internal fights, the plethora of irreconcilable opinions, the stakes, the deadline, the characters and the debates in the HoP has made for a fascinating spectacle. I'm sure I wouldn't enjoy it as much if I was living in the UK or in Ireland... Anyway, what I mentioned earlier is how I understand the amendment is supposed to work in theory and presumes that a majority of MPs in the end act rationally(yeah right!). The amendment means that if May's deal is defeated for a second time (vote on March 12) there will be a Parliament vote to chose between a no-deal Brexit or to ask the EU for a 3 month extension. An extension that would require all 27 EU members to agree to, which is sketchy if there is no reason to assume the situation will be any different after those 3 month. But that's the thing, the UK would have to decide a course of action if they want an extension. That means making a decision on May's deal, second ref or no-deal. It seems pretty clear there won't be a no-deal, if left with that option enough MPs will support May. Or a second ref, either of those two. Yeah... because the UK totally wasn't in the exact same situation last time when they gave May a historic No. You're absolutely right, they weren't. The point of running down the clock is that you eventually run out of time. And like every chronic procrastinator they are now asking the teacher for another day before having to turn in the paper.
Nothing
Has
Changed.
How do you not get this.
The UK is in the exact same position they were a month ago, they were out of time then, they are out of time now and they will still be out of time next month when they vote on the same thing yet again.
You act as if there is a strategy from the "some sort of deal side" in running out the clock. That people will vote for the deal because its the only logical choice left. It was the only logical choice left last month. The EU made that very clear. Didn't do a fucking thing and it won't do a thing next month.
The ones trying to run out the clock are those who want a hard no-deal Brexit. And its working.
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Good thing is that if you're right, we'll know in a month. Also if you're wrong, although we probably won't have to wait a full month for that.
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I don't really understand where you got the understanding that UK will automatically leave without a no-deal as opposed to automatically a no-deal. This sky news expert must be the only guy with that understanding.
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On March 01 2019 08:41 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
I don't really understand where you got the understanding that UK will automatically leave without a no-deal as opposed to automatically a no-deal. This sky news expert must be the only guy with that understanding.
I never said that. No-deal is still the default but now the MPs have the power to veto it so the risk of it happening has been drastically reduced. You had a eurosceptic minister resigning yesterday for this exact reason.
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EPT
