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On July 10 2018 00:40 Pandemona wrote:
I don't think that is going to happen now, what i read from what they want to do in terms of deal it looks fine to most.
I guess the deal will hinge on getting it through parliment but it looks good enough that most of labour will agree to it.
Hint: It takes two sides to make a deal.
Oh, and the Irish border question, which is what is completely stalling any negotiations before they even began is still remaining untouched.
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Just for my own personal information, since it is never really talked about:
What does the EU do if the UK can’t reach a deal by the deadline? And what happens to all the UK citizens living in the EU if that takes place?
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It takes two sides to make a deal, but those in support of brexit has never recognised that. The Conservatives do not want to disabue them of that notion for political reasons. Or perhaps they do recognise that but the deal they want is no deal at all, which is quite simply put an utter disaster.
@Plansix, in theory, there would simply be no deal and all UK citizens will have to leave the EU or apply for work visas and the like. The EU seems rather generous though and seem to be playing nicely with regards to British nationals. The UK government were using EU workers as a bargaining chip but will probably give a lot of leeway to EU workers because the NHS and the general UK economy will simply collapse otherwise. There will be a trade border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
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Northern Ireland22208 Posts
On July 10 2018 00:53 Plansix wrote:
Just for my own personal information, since it is never really talked about:
What does the EU do if the UK can’t reach a deal by the deadline? And what happens to all the UK citizens living in the EU if that takes place?
if there is no deal, trade between the EU and UK will automatically revert to WTO rules. As for UK citizens living in the EU, no idea. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39294904 this is a good read for what could technically happen in a no deal scenario
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On July 09 2018 23:55 Pandemona wrote:
That tweet he did is just fueling the fire of Brexiters as well jesus christ he should be fined for that lol.
Also, i was under the impression the reason Boris and David walked was because the deal propsoed was awful. Theresa May right now is saying the deal on the table they agreed in the meeting is;
We take back our Borders, Money & Laws and do not stay in the Customs Union...
If that is the case it is a hard Brexit so why is Boris and David leaving? What and who is lying?
Soft Brexit for goods hard for services
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From an outsider, it feels like Brexit isn't actually going to happen and they are letting it fall apart. All these people resigning, what is even left? It feels like no one is even left that still thinks Brexit is a good thing. Am I misreading?
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On July 10 2018 02:18 Mohdoo wrote:
From an outsider, it feels like Brexit isn't actually going to happen and they are letting it fall apart. All these people resigning, what is even left? It feels like no one is even left that still thinks Brexit is a good thing. Am I misreading?
They think brexit is a good thing thats why they are resigning because the PM is trying to dilute it as much as possible.
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On July 10 2018 02:18 Mohdoo wrote:
From an outsider, it feels like Brexit isn't actually going to happen and they are letting it fall apart. All these people resigning, what is even left? It feels like no one is even left that still thinks Brexit is a good thing. Am I misreading?
yeah idk. I do agree with someone else earlier though that Tusk (and politicians from the EU in general) should keep their noses out of this.
Noone from the UK is going to read a tweet like that and think to themselves "mmmmh, yeah maybe he is right". The only real thing I could see comming out of tweets like that is people becomming stubborn and be even more pro-brexit.
That being said, it's still a wonder to me how May even ended up being the PM instead of... you know... the people who campaigned for this. Nigel Farage is probably the best about it. Campagined against the EU for years and when he finally gets what he wants he gets the fuck out and let's other people deal with it.
And at that point I'd even still be somewhat on board with it but then being on TV every day talking about how the current government isn't really in it, doesn't believe in Brexit and how they're doing it all wrong... like seriously? It's hilarious looking in from the outside.
Should have just forced him + Boris to take the lead imo. Reading some posts earlier though seems like Boris actually wanted but got kicked out? So maybe not really on him.
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On July 10 2018 02:30 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On July 10 2018 02:18 Mohdoo wrote:
From an outsider, it feels like Brexit isn't actually going to happen and they are letting it fall apart. All these people resigning, what is even left? It feels like no one is even left that still thinks Brexit is a good thing. Am I misreading? yeah idk. I do agree with someone else earlier though that Tusk (and politicians from the EU in general) should keep their noses out of this. Noone from the UK is going to read a tweet like that and think to themselves "mmmmh, yeah maybe he is right". The only real thing I could see comming out of tweets like that is people becomming stubborn and be even more pro-brexit. That being said, it's still a wonder to me how May even ended up being the PM instead of... you know... the people who campaigned for this. Nigel Farage is probably the best about it. Campagined against the EU for years and when he finally gets what he wants he gets the fuck out and let's other people deal with it. And at that point I'd even still be somewhat on board with it but then being on TV every day talking about how the current government isn't really in it, doesn't believe in Brexit and how they're doing it all wrong... like seriously? It's hilarious looking in from the outside. Should have just forced him + Boris to take the lead imo. Reading some posts earlier though seems like Boris actually wanted but got kicked out? So maybe not really on him.
Nigel Farage is from a different party to the governing party, he was not even apart of the official campaign and is so toxic if he headed the campaign it would have lost.
May got to be PM because Gove thought Boris wasn't up to the job and withdrew his support at the last minute. Boris was too scared to run at that point to replace Cameron. Gove, Leadsom, May, Fox and Crabb ran. Fox and Crabb were lightweights just fighting for a job in future government, People couldn't get over Gove knifing Boris so he couldn't gather enough support, stupidly support poured into Leadsom who is in the running for worst minister in government along with Chris Grayling. Typically Leadsom's campaign imploded after some stupid comments and so May won the leadership by default.
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You are misreading. David Davies and Boris Johnson resigning are the ones who (in outer appearance in Boris Johnson's case) want brexit to happen to totality. That is called a hard brexit. They disagree with a soft brexit which covers a lot of issues, and ranges from a lot of fantastical treaty proposals, but most focus on a Swiss-like, or Norway-like treaty. Theresa May, the Prime Minister, has outlined a position which she claims that the cabinet has agreed upon a couple of days ago, for the propsal to give to the EU, which is complicated but is basically a big fudge of soft and hard brexit. They disagree with the proposals and quit.
You can basically see this in one of two ways. David Davies wants to quit any agreement to the EU unless it is completely favourable to UK, like access to the free market, but without having to follow any EU rules and regulations, and without free movement. The proposal that the PM has declared as agreed upon for the UK position, is, in his resignation letter, doesn't meet that requirement, and also is likely that in further negotiations as a result of having a position, to weaken UK's ability to negotiate positively for itself. Never mind that the EU's position has been declared and practically the same since the start.
The other way to look at it is that David Davies want to quit any agreement to the EU and sees that having no position of negotiation to show to the EU would simply lead to an eventual hard brexit. His interviews have shown him to either be dimwitted and incompetent or that he genuinely wants to leave the EU completely and obscuration is the best tactic for doing so, contrary to the wishes of other members of the cabinet. That Theresa May has essentially declared that her proposal for a position (after how long!), would lead to an agreement with the EU, so resigning would be best to throw the negotiations into even more chaos, so a hard brexit would occur. There is a more conspiratorial view that he never planned to take responsibility of an eventual hard brexit and was planning to resign and this gave him an opportunity to do so in a more favourable manner.
As for Boris Johnson, he wants to be PM. Personal power at all cost to country.
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On July 10 2018 02:38 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On July 10 2018 02:30 Toadesstern wrote:On July 10 2018 02:18 Mohdoo wrote:
From an outsider, it feels like Brexit isn't actually going to happen and they are letting it fall apart. All these people resigning, what is even left? It feels like no one is even left that still thinks Brexit is a good thing. Am I misreading? yeah idk. I do agree with someone else earlier though that Tusk (and politicians from the EU in general) should keep their noses out of this. Noone from the UK is going to read a tweet like that and think to themselves "mmmmh, yeah maybe he is right". The only real thing I could see comming out of tweets like that is people becomming stubborn and be even more pro-brexit. That being said, it's still a wonder to me how May even ended up being the PM instead of... you know... the people who campaigned for this. Nigel Farage is probably the best about it. Campagined against the EU for years and when he finally gets what he wants he gets the fuck out and let's other people deal with it. And at that point I'd even still be somewhat on board with it but then being on TV every day talking about how the current government isn't really in it, doesn't believe in Brexit and how they're doing it all wrong... like seriously? It's hilarious looking in from the outside. Should have just forced him + Boris to take the lead imo. Reading some posts earlier though seems like Boris actually wanted but got kicked out? So maybe not really on him. Nigel Farage is from a different party to the governing party, he was not even apart of the official campaign and is so toxic if he headed the campaign it would have lost. May got to be PM because Gove thought Boris wasn't up to the job and withdrew his support at the last minute. Boris was too scared to run at that point to replace Cameron. Gove, Leadsom, May, Fox and Crabb ran. Fox and Crabb were lightweights just fighting for a job in future government, People couldn't get over Gove knifing Boris so he couldn't gather enough support, stupidly support poured into Leadsom who is in the running for worst minister in government along with Chris Grayling. Typically Leadsom's campaign imploded after some stupid comments and so May won the leadership by default.
couldn't you just have given the job Davis had to Boris instead? Feels to me like Boris got a job because he had to given his position but that it's not as involved in brexit as it should have been.
And yeah Farage being UKIP and hence not being part of the government slipped my mind... but it's still kind of weird. Idk, feel like he should be involved somehow.
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On July 10 2018 02:48 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On July 10 2018 02:38 Zaros wrote:On July 10 2018 02:30 Toadesstern wrote:On July 10 2018 02:18 Mohdoo wrote:
From an outsider, it feels like Brexit isn't actually going to happen and they are letting it fall apart. All these people resigning, what is even left? It feels like no one is even left that still thinks Brexit is a good thing. Am I misreading? yeah idk. I do agree with someone else earlier though that Tusk (and politicians from the EU in general) should keep their noses out of this. Noone from the UK is going to read a tweet like that and think to themselves "mmmmh, yeah maybe he is right". The only real thing I could see comming out of tweets like that is people becomming stubborn and be even more pro-brexit. That being said, it's still a wonder to me how May even ended up being the PM instead of... you know... the people who campaigned for this. Nigel Farage is probably the best about it. Campagined against the EU for years and when he finally gets what he wants he gets the fuck out and let's other people deal with it. And at that point I'd even still be somewhat on board with it but then being on TV every day talking about how the current government isn't really in it, doesn't believe in Brexit and how they're doing it all wrong... like seriously? It's hilarious looking in from the outside. Should have just forced him + Boris to take the lead imo. Reading some posts earlier though seems like Boris actually wanted but got kicked out? So maybe not really on him. Nigel Farage is from a different party to the governing party, he was not even apart of the official campaign and is so toxic if he headed the campaign it would have lost. May got to be PM because Gove thought Boris wasn't up to the job and withdrew his support at the last minute. Boris was too scared to run at that point to replace Cameron. Gove, Leadsom, May, Fox and Crabb ran. Fox and Crabb were lightweights just fighting for a job in future government, People couldn't get over Gove knifing Boris so he couldn't gather enough support, stupidly support poured into Leadsom who is in the running for worst minister in government along with Chris Grayling. Typically Leadsom's campaign imploded after some stupid comments and so May won the leadership by default. couldn't you just have given the job Davis had to Boris instead? Feels to me like Boris got a job because he had to given his position but that it's not as involved in brexit as it should have been. And yeah Farage being UKIP and hence not being part of the government slipped my mind... but it's still kind of weird. Idk, feel like he should be involved somehow.
Boris only got a job because he is the lead brexiteer and may wanted him in the tent pissing out he wasn't competent enough in TM eyes to do anything important.
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He got the job because he is a popular politician who got a regular slot at a popular comedic tv show, and he was needed to shore up support for brexit, as opposed to more unknown MP's, and who knows what happens in the internal politics of the Conservative party anyways? He accepted the job because he would had probably become irrelevant otherwise.
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On July 10 2018 02:18 Mohdoo wrote:
From an outsider, it feels like Brexit isn't actually going to happen and they are letting it fall apart. All these people resigning, what is even left? It feels like no one is even left that still thinks Brexit is a good thing. Am I misreading?
The problem is there's no clear path to Brexit not happening that retains any semblance of commitment to democratic consent. It has clogged up the political arteries of the country and there's no way of getting round it.
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Indeed, if you read the contents of both resignation letters there are reference to "the people" and" promises" made, but at no point can it be said that "the people" wanted to leave the EU completely (for all the claims for democratic process and the validity of referendums, curiously the decision for the manner of leaving was denied to a referendum), (and indeed the brexiteers appears to be trying to bypass parliamentary due process) nor were any promises could be said to have been made by the conservative party at the time, seeing as the conservative party saw fit and was only capable of allowing complete free reign over their MP's to say whatever they like.
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Another albeit Minor government MP resigns. I think May has survived for now though think Boris has overplayed his hand even though I agree with his stance on Brexit.
Wonder who our Foreign Sec will be, seems to be a very tough choice if she wants a Leave supporter with enough experience to be FS there are very few options outside of Gove and he has many people who would oppose him as FS with his views on war and the Middle East in particular.
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how likely is a vote of no-confidence (or whatever a similar process would be called in the UK) with this?
From what I picked up not likely at all as long as it's just those 2 major + 1 minor resignations? Would that change if more people resign or is it just not worth thinking about right now considering how unlikely/bad it would be?
I can't imagine it helping out in getting anything out in a time.
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It doesn't matter anymore who May can or may choose to fill these positions. Unless the Conservative party does an about turn to remain in the EU, the disaster that in a complete leaving the EU (hard brexit) is assured. The only hope is at this point the EU will generously allow a position of prolonging "negotiations" in sympathetic deference of the UK indefinitely.
Of course if you was in favour of completely leaving the EU (hard brexit), your hope would be that negotiations collapse completely anyways, so it doesn't matter who is in the cabinet.
Then again those that do support a hard brexit appear to be under the continuous delusion that they can have their cake and eat it, so maybe they do care aboput who can fill these cabinet position and can conclude a favourable trade treaty that is possible in their eyes.
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On July 10 2018 03:42 Toadesstern wrote:
how likely is a vote of no-confidence (or whatever a similar process would be called in the UK) with this?
From what I picked up not likely at all as long as it's just those 2 major + 1 minor resignations? Would that change if more people resign or is it just not worth thinking about right now considering how unlikely/bad it would be?
I can't imagine it helping out in getting anything out in a time.
There is a conservative party no confidence vote and the Parliament no confidence vote, the Parliament no confidence vote has fuck all chance of happening. The conservative no confidence vote will happen if 48 conservative MPs write letters to the chairman of the conservative 1922 committee. It looks like at the moment the 48 letters have not been reached as most people resigning have said they want policy change not personnel change.
There is only really 1 big Leave supporter left in government (Gove) with a couple of low ranking (Fox, Grayling) and up and coming (Raab, Mordaunt) leave supporters. If any of these people resign then I would say there would be a confidence vote very quickly (she might get away with Grayling because hes so useless.) Same applies if Rees Mogg (organiser of conservative Hard Brexit Mps) calls for a change of leader. There probably will be a confidence vote in the next few months no matter what now though even if it doesn't happen right away, Boris will be waiting for the right time to call one if no one else resigns.
On July 10 2018 03:48 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
It doesn't matter anymore who May can or may choose to fill these positions. Unless the Conservative party does an about turn to remain in the EU, the disaster that in a complete leaving the EU (hard brexit) is assured. The only hope is at this point the EU will generously allow a position of prolonging "negotiations" in deference of the UK indefinitely.
Of course if you was in favour of completely leaving the EU (hard brexit), your hope would be that negotiations collapse completely anyways, so it doesn't matter who is in the cabinet.
Then again those that do support a hard brexit appear to be under the continuous delusion that they can have their cake and eat it, so maybe they do care aboput who can fill these cabinet position and can conclude a favourable trade treaty that is possible in their eyes.
The conservative party is never going to do a full about turn that would be political suicide and rip the party to shreds, look how the compromise deal has gone down and think 500x worse.
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EPT
