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On July 14 2016 23:34 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2016 23:29 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 23:25 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 22:57 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 22:40 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 22:05 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 05:26 bardtown wrote: Breaking news: the Bulgarian guy who's been flaming everyone who supported Brexit doesn't like Boris Johnson! I think that judging that Johnson is a disastrous choice for foreign minister doesn't require to be a flaming anti-Brexit bulgarian. Have you seen the reaction from foreign diplomats and officials? They were oscillating between laughter and disbelief. The state department spokesman actually almost burst out laughing when he learnt the news on camera, and issued a statement basically implying they couldn't have made a worse choice ("what matters is not who they chose and personalities, we will always be allies" - that's basically the diplomatic equivalent of "are you fucking kidding me what is this idiot doing there") : http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/14/maybe-the-brits-are-just-having-us-on-the-world-reacts-to-boris-johnson-as-foreign-ministerThat people can like Johnson, ok, why not. He has charisma, and a lot of qualities I guess. But to consider he is a good choice as country top diplomat is completely beyond me. Bear in mind that the Guardian is the leftist equivalent of the Daily Mail. The guy smiled when he heard that Boris had been appointed. Who wouldn't? Have you seen Boris? The rest is your interpretation. I personally don't see it, and filling an article with random tweets is BuzzFeed tier journalism. Boris has always been a bit controversial and polarising. I'm sure there will be gaffes, but he may yet surprise you positively, too. The Foreign Office is a complicated machine, and there's potential for a healthy dynamic with Boris primarily as a friendly figurehead which, again, is what I think we need for developing closer international ties. Popular perception is of underrated importance in IR. As for his Obama remarks, it's worth bearing in mind that Obama's interactions with the UK have been a series of slights and that there is a general feeling that there's no love lost, there. You also seem to be missing the fact that there are two new departments for dealing with Brexit. Boris will almost certainly be focused on the US/Asia/commonwealth. I was not expecting May to be a good PM, but that's one clusterfuck of a start. What the hell is she even thinking. Start by making a huge finger to countries that hold you by the balls and with whom you'll have to enter in terribly hard negotiations. I can only hope you will be so emphatic in apologising if you are proved wrong. Sure. I'll write a letter to nr10 Downing Street to apologize for being totally wrong on a Starcraft forum about that decision if Johnson ends up being a great, successful and respected minister of foreign affairs. I'm not risking much. Exactly my point. You're overflowing with confidence because you'll never be held to account. Calm down, be dignified and measured. You know nothing of me, and I am the first to recognize when I'm wrong.
If we can avoid being personal AND patronizing, it would be good.
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On July 15 2016 00:12 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2016 23:34 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 23:29 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 23:25 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 22:57 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 22:40 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 22:05 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 05:26 bardtown wrote: Breaking news: the Bulgarian guy who's been flaming everyone who supported Brexit doesn't like Boris Johnson! I think that judging that Johnson is a disastrous choice for foreign minister doesn't require to be a flaming anti-Brexit bulgarian. Have you seen the reaction from foreign diplomats and officials? They were oscillating between laughter and disbelief. The state department spokesman actually almost burst out laughing when he learnt the news on camera, and issued a statement basically implying they couldn't have made a worse choice ("what matters is not who they chose and personalities, we will always be allies" - that's basically the diplomatic equivalent of "are you fucking kidding me what is this idiot doing there") : http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/14/maybe-the-brits-are-just-having-us-on-the-world-reacts-to-boris-johnson-as-foreign-ministerThat people can like Johnson, ok, why not. He has charisma, and a lot of qualities I guess. But to consider he is a good choice as country top diplomat is completely beyond me. Bear in mind that the Guardian is the leftist equivalent of the Daily Mail. The guy smiled when he heard that Boris had been appointed. Who wouldn't? Have you seen Boris? The rest is your interpretation. I personally don't see it, and filling an article with random tweets is BuzzFeed tier journalism. Boris has always been a bit controversial and polarising. I'm sure there will be gaffes, but he may yet surprise you positively, too. The Foreign Office is a complicated machine, and there's potential for a healthy dynamic with Boris primarily as a friendly figurehead which, again, is what I think we need for developing closer international ties. Popular perception is of underrated importance in IR. As for his Obama remarks, it's worth bearing in mind that Obama's interactions with the UK have been a series of slights and that there is a general feeling that there's no love lost, there. You also seem to be missing the fact that there are two new departments for dealing with Brexit. Boris will almost certainly be focused on the US/Asia/commonwealth. I was not expecting May to be a good PM, but that's one clusterfuck of a start. What the hell is she even thinking. Start by making a huge finger to countries that hold you by the balls and with whom you'll have to enter in terribly hard negotiations. I can only hope you will be so emphatic in apologising if you are proved wrong. Sure. I'll write a letter to nr10 Downing Street to apologize for being totally wrong on a Starcraft forum about that decision if Johnson ends up being a great, successful and respected minister of foreign affairs. I'm not risking much. Exactly my point. You're overflowing with confidence because you'll never be held to account. Calm down, be dignified and measured. You know nothing of me, and I am the first to recognize when I'm wrong. If we can avoid being personal AND patronizing, it would be good.
When you talk of countries like France 'having [the UK] by the balls', you've earned a little ridicule. The UK trades with the EU at an enormous deficit (and it does not, contrary to your assertion, make up the 'overwhelming majority' of our trade). France trades with the UK at a huge surplus. If France wants to cripple its most successful trading relationship while the Eurozone teeters on the edge of the abyss, it is more than welcome to do so.
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Whiteout checking the data. The EU is most likely the by far biggest market for the UK when it comes to goods (so actual value that creates jobs). So, how doesn't the EU have you by the balls?
Yes, losing the agreements with the UK would hurt the EU, bit it would hurt the UK way worse.
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The biggest problem is not goods, The EU wants to trade with the UK so I expect them to get a decent enough deal there. The problem is services since the EU needs that a lot less and without it the London financial district will uproot.
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On July 14 2016 22:40 bardtown wrote:As for his Obama remarks, it's worth bearing in mind that Obama's interactions with the UK have been a series of slights and that there is a general feeling that there's no love lost, there. Its not about "love [being] lost, there.". Its about racism. What he said would end his political career in certain other countries immediately. He said that Obama is against the UK because of some half-Kenyan ancestry. I can understand if he said that as a joke to personal friends while sitting on his couch at home, but as a political figure in public? What kind of person does that?
On July 14 2016 23:33 xM(Z wrote: i'm fairly confident that UK will try and get some leverage, on an international/geopolitical scale; no way they'll go into negotiations like scrubs, crying and begging for scraps from EU(or sit in line for US agreements lol). it's teh Great Britain we're talking about here.
putting pro-bexiters in charge could simulate a commitment towards a certain direction... Just imagine what would happen if the EU would destroy the UK's access to the financial market. All the big corporations fleeing from the UK and moving to EU cities. You know those corporations are not loyal to anything but revenue. They go where the money is. And if they leave the UK it will be completely devastating (for the UK that is). And think about how good it would be for the EU. All that british money now being made within EU countries.
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Nobody serious cares about tarriffs and trade barriers to goods. That's fairly simple to rectify and part and parcel of most any FTA.
Lowering trade barriers to services, and particularly financial services, well. That's another story entirely and is generally hellish to acquire and something the UK economy is utterly, full stop, dependent on at this juncture. Single market access is the lifeblood of the UK at present just due to the dependence of London banking on it: without it, most will migrate their jobs to the EU, though they've been pressured by the Treasury to keep quiet on this point for now.
next.ft.com
A transition into a (quality) goods-based export economy is the shift that's being proposed for the UK economy post-Brexit, but that takes decades and a large amount of human and economic capital investment, when in all likelihood Brexit will spark a brain drain and FDI/capital flight.
The UK does not have a good bargaining position when it comes to the EU, when it so desperately needs full access to the single market.
EDIT: Quote for those that cannot read.
+ Show Spoiler +Senior bankers in London are growing frustrated with JPMorgan Chase’s public warnings that it may cut thousands of jobs in the UK, saying such remarks send an unhelpfully negative message.
The concerns come amid efforts by the Treasury to encourage international banks to paint a rosier picture of the City’s future in the aftermath of the UK’s referendum vote to leave the EU. The Treasury has separately urged British banks to refrain from public proclamations about any dire consequences from Brexit, people briefed on the discussions said.
Officials asked international banks to sign a “more optimistic” joint statement than the one eventually published last Thursday and said banks and the Treasury would “work together … to help London retain its position as the leading international financial centre”.
Banks resisted, arguing that they were “not cheerleaders”, one of the people present said. The Treasury declined to comment.
Large international banks based in London — who may lose the “passports” that allow them to offer services across the EU market with a UK licence — were very vocal in the run-up to the June 23 referendum about the catastrophic impact they said Brexit would have on UK financial sector jobs.
Most have been less forthcoming since. One notable exception is JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon, who has repeatedly raised the prospect of big job cuts in the UK, where the largest US bank by assets employs about 16,000 people.
One senior banker said Mr Dimon’s comments were “deeply unhelpful for our cause”. JPMorgan declined to comment.
Top City of London executives expressed their concerns about the negative impact of such remarks at a recent board meeting of the British Bankers’ Association and in a wider gathering of bank executives chaired by Santander UK chairman Shriti Vadera a fortnight ago.
Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary and potential future chancellor, has given short shrift to negative comments about the City’s future. He called on the banks in a speech on Tuesday evening to “get behind the City” while rubbishing the idea of the City being “uprooted with mud dropping off its roots” and transplanted to another EU city.
Mr Dimon last week addressed his UK staff at a meeting in London and reassured them about the City’s future as a big centre for his bank. But he told an Italian newspaper on July 7 that JPMorgan could be forced to move thousands of staff out of Britain if the country lost its automatic right to sell financial services to the EU.
He had also flagged the risk in advance, telling a staff meeting at JPMorgan’s Bournemouth service centre on June 3 that the bank would have to act swiftly in the aftermath of an Out vote.
Mr Dimon added: “If the UK leaves the EU, we may have no choice but to reorganise our business model here. Brexit could mean fewer JPMorgan jobs in the UK and more jobs in Europe.”
JPMorgan reports results on Thursday, and Mr Dimon is likely to be asked about the implications of Brexit.
Mr Dimon is not the only one warning of the consequences for the City in the aftermath of the Out vote.
On Tuesday, UBS investment bank chief Andrea Orcel told Bloomberg that “most probably we would need to consider moving a number of our employees to an EU country”. The numbers moving would be a “significant percentage” of UBS’s 5,000-strong London workforce, he said.
After the referendum result, Deutsche Bank chief executive John Cryan said: “we cannot fully foresee the consequences, but there’s no doubt that they will be negative on all sides”.
The Treasury has met the CEOs of the large UK banks and the CEOs of large international banks separately to reassure them that the UK will do what it can to protect financial services. People briefed on the matter said UK bank bosses had been asked not to go public about moving jobs away from Britain until the government was more stable and the basis for negotiations with Europe was clearer.
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There are elections on Germany and France on 2017 right ? BJ seems like the best for the job, not only they get him tied to the project, but pretty sure May doesn't really want to negotiate until elections had passed.
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On July 15 2016 02:39 Godwrath wrote: There are elections on Germany and France on 2017 right ? BJ seems like the best for the job, not only they get him tied to the project, but pretty sure May doesn't really want to negotiate until elections had passed.
If that's the case, there is an appropriate image for that.
+ Show Spoiler +
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On July 15 2016 02:43 Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2016 02:39 Godwrath wrote: There are elections on Germany and France on 2017 right ? BJ seems like the best for the job, not only they get him tied to the project, but pretty sure May doesn't really want to negotiate until elections had passed. If that's the case, there is an appropriate image for that. + Show Spoiler + Isnt that cat on the wrong side of the door Oo
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On July 15 2016 02:43 Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2016 02:39 Godwrath wrote: There are elections on Germany and France on 2017 right ? BJ seems like the best for the job, not only they get him tied to the project, but pretty sure May doesn't really want to negotiate until elections had passed. If that's the case, there is an appropriate image for that. + Show Spoiler + I don't get it. Why would May want to start real negotiations when both Germany and France have elections at stake ? They are sending him to his political defunction anyways.
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On July 15 2016 02:33 RoomOfMush wrote:Show nested quote +On July 14 2016 23:33 xM(Z wrote: i'm fairly confident that UK will try and get some leverage, on an international/geopolitical scale; no way they'll go into negotiations like scrubs, crying and begging for scraps from EU(or sit in line for US agreements lol). it's teh Great Britain we're talking about here.
putting pro-bexiters in charge could simulate a commitment towards a certain direction... Just imagine what would happen if the EU would destroy the UK's access to the financial market. All the big corporations fleeing from the UK and moving to EU cities. You know those corporations are not loyal to anything but revenue. They go where the money is. And if they leave the UK it will be completely devastating (for the UK that is). And think about how good it would be for the EU. All that british money now being made within EU countries. well, there are already guesses and even some competition between EU cities, alleged candidates for the next financial center. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/paris-frankfurt-amsterdam-dublin-brussels-new-london-brexit-eu-referendum-global-financial-centre-a7113266.html Paris, Frankfurt, Brussels, Amsterdam and Dublin are all thought to be contenders. ...Prior to the referendum, Emmanuel Macron, the French economy minister, said Paris would “roll out the red carpet” for financial corporations that wanted or needed to move in the event of a Brexit. ... “It is crucial to understand EU must at all costs stop Le Pen winning in 2017. Best way to do this? Reward France the banks and their taxes,” Judah tweeted.
But there are signs Paris would have to make some changes before it could welcome in the global business elite.
It heavily regulates big business and financial firms, which has put many off the French capital. Plus less than 40 per cent of the French are fluent in English, making it less hospitable to newcomers. ...Amsterdam was tipped to be "the new London" by James Stewart, author and business columnist at the New York Times, because of its beautiful architecture, excellent schools and good night life. Almost all of its population speak English and it has centuries of experience as a global trading centre, making it especially tolerant of newcomers, Mr Stewart said.
However, a cap on bonuses of just 20 per cent of annual salaries has discouraged some businesses from moving there.
Deputy Mayor Kajsa Ollongren, a Dutch politician, told the Dutch daily newspaper in the aftermath of Brexit that she had already had enquiries from firms.
"I cannot say the names, but a number of Asian companies operating in the finance sector and located in London, have turned to us in recent weeks," she said.
She said that that companies are asking about moving to Amsterdam to continue to provide services to mainland Europe. and so on ...
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On July 15 2016 00:32 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2016 00:12 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 23:34 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 23:29 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 23:25 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 22:57 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 22:40 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 22:05 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 05:26 bardtown wrote: Breaking news: the Bulgarian guy who's been flaming everyone who supported Brexit doesn't like Boris Johnson! I think that judging that Johnson is a disastrous choice for foreign minister doesn't require to be a flaming anti-Brexit bulgarian. Have you seen the reaction from foreign diplomats and officials? They were oscillating between laughter and disbelief. The state department spokesman actually almost burst out laughing when he learnt the news on camera, and issued a statement basically implying they couldn't have made a worse choice ("what matters is not who they chose and personalities, we will always be allies" - that's basically the diplomatic equivalent of "are you fucking kidding me what is this idiot doing there") : http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/14/maybe-the-brits-are-just-having-us-on-the-world-reacts-to-boris-johnson-as-foreign-ministerThat people can like Johnson, ok, why not. He has charisma, and a lot of qualities I guess. But to consider he is a good choice as country top diplomat is completely beyond me. Bear in mind that the Guardian is the leftist equivalent of the Daily Mail. The guy smiled when he heard that Boris had been appointed. Who wouldn't? Have you seen Boris? The rest is your interpretation. I personally don't see it, and filling an article with random tweets is BuzzFeed tier journalism. Boris has always been a bit controversial and polarising. I'm sure there will be gaffes, but he may yet surprise you positively, too. The Foreign Office is a complicated machine, and there's potential for a healthy dynamic with Boris primarily as a friendly figurehead which, again, is what I think we need for developing closer international ties. Popular perception is of underrated importance in IR. As for his Obama remarks, it's worth bearing in mind that Obama's interactions with the UK have been a series of slights and that there is a general feeling that there's no love lost, there. You also seem to be missing the fact that there are two new departments for dealing with Brexit. Boris will almost certainly be focused on the US/Asia/commonwealth. I was not expecting May to be a good PM, but that's one clusterfuck of a start. What the hell is she even thinking. Start by making a huge finger to countries that hold you by the balls and with whom you'll have to enter in terribly hard negotiations. I can only hope you will be so emphatic in apologising if you are proved wrong. Sure. I'll write a letter to nr10 Downing Street to apologize for being totally wrong on a Starcraft forum about that decision if Johnson ends up being a great, successful and respected minister of foreign affairs. I'm not risking much. Exactly my point. You're overflowing with confidence because you'll never be held to account. Calm down, be dignified and measured. You know nothing of me, and I am the first to recognize when I'm wrong. If we can avoid being personal AND patronizing, it would be good. When you talk of countries like France 'having [the UK] by the balls', you've earned a little ridicule. The UK trades with the EU at an enormous deficit (and it does not, contrary to your assertion, make up the 'overwhelming majority' of our trade). France trades with the UK at a huge surplus. If France wants to cripple its most successful trading relationship while the Eurozone teeters on the edge of the abyss, it is more than welcome to do so. The Uk is more dependent on the eurozone than any country of the eurozone if of the UK.
If the UK leaves the free market and doesn't get anything in return, it impacts the 70% of its foreign trades it does with the EU. France doesn't do 70% of its foreign trade with the UK. If you want to talk ridicule try to get your logic right. The problem is not trade deficit, but that Britain is tiny compared to the rest of the EU.
Every economist agrees that the Brexit will impact the UK more than the EU, and that impact will be proportional to how much they botch those negotiations.
Anyway. It was about you not getting personal, and apparently you insist. Can you stop? Thanks.
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On July 15 2016 05:43 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2016 00:32 bardtown wrote:On July 15 2016 00:12 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 23:34 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 23:29 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 23:25 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 22:57 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 22:40 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 22:05 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 05:26 bardtown wrote: Breaking news: the Bulgarian guy who's been flaming everyone who supported Brexit doesn't like Boris Johnson! I think that judging that Johnson is a disastrous choice for foreign minister doesn't require to be a flaming anti-Brexit bulgarian. Have you seen the reaction from foreign diplomats and officials? They were oscillating between laughter and disbelief. The state department spokesman actually almost burst out laughing when he learnt the news on camera, and issued a statement basically implying they couldn't have made a worse choice ("what matters is not who they chose and personalities, we will always be allies" - that's basically the diplomatic equivalent of "are you fucking kidding me what is this idiot doing there") : http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/14/maybe-the-brits-are-just-having-us-on-the-world-reacts-to-boris-johnson-as-foreign-ministerThat people can like Johnson, ok, why not. He has charisma, and a lot of qualities I guess. But to consider he is a good choice as country top diplomat is completely beyond me. Bear in mind that the Guardian is the leftist equivalent of the Daily Mail. The guy smiled when he heard that Boris had been appointed. Who wouldn't? Have you seen Boris? The rest is your interpretation. I personally don't see it, and filling an article with random tweets is BuzzFeed tier journalism. Boris has always been a bit controversial and polarising. I'm sure there will be gaffes, but he may yet surprise you positively, too. The Foreign Office is a complicated machine, and there's potential for a healthy dynamic with Boris primarily as a friendly figurehead which, again, is what I think we need for developing closer international ties. Popular perception is of underrated importance in IR. As for his Obama remarks, it's worth bearing in mind that Obama's interactions with the UK have been a series of slights and that there is a general feeling that there's no love lost, there. You also seem to be missing the fact that there are two new departments for dealing with Brexit. Boris will almost certainly be focused on the US/Asia/commonwealth. I was not expecting May to be a good PM, but that's one clusterfuck of a start. What the hell is she even thinking. Start by making a huge finger to countries that hold you by the balls and with whom you'll have to enter in terribly hard negotiations. I can only hope you will be so emphatic in apologising if you are proved wrong. Sure. I'll write a letter to nr10 Downing Street to apologize for being totally wrong on a Starcraft forum about that decision if Johnson ends up being a great, successful and respected minister of foreign affairs. I'm not risking much. Exactly my point. You're overflowing with confidence because you'll never be held to account. Calm down, be dignified and measured. You know nothing of me, and I am the first to recognize when I'm wrong. If we can avoid being personal AND patronizing, it would be good. When you talk of countries like France 'having [the UK] by the balls', you've earned a little ridicule. The UK trades with the EU at an enormous deficit (and it does not, contrary to your assertion, make up the 'overwhelming majority' of our trade). France trades with the UK at a huge surplus. If France wants to cripple its most successful trading relationship while the Eurozone teeters on the edge of the abyss, it is more than welcome to do so. The Uk is more dependent on the eurozone than any country of the eurozone if of the UK. If the UK leaves the free market and doesn't get anything in return, it impacts the 70% of its foreign trades it does with the EU. France doesn't do 70% of its foreign trade with the UK. If you want to talk ridicule try to get your logic right. The problem is not trade deficit, but that Britain is tiny compared to the rest of the EU. Every economist agrees that the Brexit will impact the UK more than the EU, and that impact will be proportional to how much they botch those negotiations. Anyway. It was about you not getting personal, and apparently you insist. Can you stop? Thanks.
When you stop saying stupid things like 'every economist agrees' and 'the vast majority of your trade' that betray your tedious bias.
The intuitions most people are working with in this thread vastly underestimate how tenuous a position the Eurozone is in. UK economic fundamentals are strong; meanwhile, the Eurozone is balanced on a knife edge, making their negotiating position deceptively weak. One of the main reasons Cameron called the referendum so early was because he wanted to avoid Greece being in the news again while campaigning. As it turns out Italy looks to be the next flashpoint. In any case, it will be very much in the interests of all involved, not just the UK, to work out a sensible deal with minimal disruption.
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On July 15 2016 06:43 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2016 05:43 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 15 2016 00:32 bardtown wrote:On July 15 2016 00:12 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 23:34 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 23:29 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 23:25 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 22:57 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 22:40 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 22:05 Biff The Understudy wrote:[quote] I think that judging that Johnson is a disastrous choice for foreign minister doesn't require to be a flaming anti-Brexit bulgarian. Have you seen the reaction from foreign diplomats and officials? They were oscillating between laughter and disbelief. The state department spokesman actually almost burst out laughing when he learnt the news on camera, and issued a statement basically implying they couldn't have made a worse choice ("what matters is not who they chose and personalities, we will always be allies" - that's basically the diplomatic equivalent of "are you fucking kidding me what is this idiot doing there") : http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/14/maybe-the-brits-are-just-having-us-on-the-world-reacts-to-boris-johnson-as-foreign-ministerThat people can like Johnson, ok, why not. He has charisma, and a lot of qualities I guess. But to consider he is a good choice as country top diplomat is completely beyond me. Bear in mind that the Guardian is the leftist equivalent of the Daily Mail. The guy smiled when he heard that Boris had been appointed. Who wouldn't? Have you seen Boris? The rest is your interpretation. I personally don't see it, and filling an article with random tweets is BuzzFeed tier journalism. Boris has always been a bit controversial and polarising. I'm sure there will be gaffes, but he may yet surprise you positively, too. The Foreign Office is a complicated machine, and there's potential for a healthy dynamic with Boris primarily as a friendly figurehead which, again, is what I think we need for developing closer international ties. Popular perception is of underrated importance in IR. As for his Obama remarks, it's worth bearing in mind that Obama's interactions with the UK have been a series of slights and that there is a general feeling that there's no love lost, there. You also seem to be missing the fact that there are two new departments for dealing with Brexit. Boris will almost certainly be focused on the US/Asia/commonwealth. I was not expecting May to be a good PM, but that's one clusterfuck of a start. What the hell is she even thinking. Start by making a huge finger to countries that hold you by the balls and with whom you'll have to enter in terribly hard negotiations. I can only hope you will be so emphatic in apologising if you are proved wrong. Sure. I'll write a letter to nr10 Downing Street to apologize for being totally wrong on a Starcraft forum about that decision if Johnson ends up being a great, successful and respected minister of foreign affairs. I'm not risking much. Exactly my point. You're overflowing with confidence because you'll never be held to account. Calm down, be dignified and measured. You know nothing of me, and I am the first to recognize when I'm wrong. If we can avoid being personal AND patronizing, it would be good. When you talk of countries like France 'having [the UK] by the balls', you've earned a little ridicule. The UK trades with the EU at an enormous deficit (and it does not, contrary to your assertion, make up the 'overwhelming majority' of our trade). France trades with the UK at a huge surplus. If France wants to cripple its most successful trading relationship while the Eurozone teeters on the edge of the abyss, it is more than welcome to do so. The Uk is more dependent on the eurozone than any country of the eurozone if of the UK. If the UK leaves the free market and doesn't get anything in return, it impacts the 70% of its foreign trades it does with the EU. France doesn't do 70% of its foreign trade with the UK. If you want to talk ridicule try to get your logic right. The problem is not trade deficit, but that Britain is tiny compared to the rest of the EU. Every economist agrees that the Brexit will impact the UK more than the EU, and that impact will be proportional to how much they botch those negotiations. Anyway. It was about you not getting personal, and apparently you insist. Can you stop? Thanks. When you stop saying stupid things like 'every economist agrees' and 'the vast majority of your trade' that betray your tedious bias. The intuitions most people are working with in this thread vastly underestimate how tenuous a position the Eurozone is in. UK economic fundamentals are strong; meanwhile, the Eurozone is balanced on a knife edge, making their negotiating position deceptively weak. One of the main reasons Cameron called the referendum so early was because he wanted to avoid Greece being in the news again while campaigning. As it turns out Italy looks to be the next flashpoint. In any case, it will be very much in the interests of all involved, not just the UK, to work out a sensible deal with minimal disruption.
Michael Gove: "People in this country have had enough of experts"
Glory to Michael Gove, our god. Glory to his prophet, clowntown.
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On July 15 2016 06:48 Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2016 06:43 bardtown wrote:On July 15 2016 05:43 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 15 2016 00:32 bardtown wrote:On July 15 2016 00:12 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 23:34 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 23:29 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 23:25 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 22:57 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 22:40 bardtown wrote: [quote]
Bear in mind that the Guardian is the leftist equivalent of the Daily Mail. The guy smiled when he heard that Boris had been appointed. Who wouldn't? Have you seen Boris? The rest is your interpretation. I personally don't see it, and filling an article with random tweets is BuzzFeed tier journalism.
Boris has always been a bit controversial and polarising. I'm sure there will be gaffes, but he may yet surprise you positively, too. The Foreign Office is a complicated machine, and there's potential for a healthy dynamic with Boris primarily as a friendly figurehead which, again, is what I think we need for developing closer international ties. Popular perception is of underrated importance in IR. As for his Obama remarks, it's worth bearing in mind that Obama's interactions with the UK have been a series of slights and that there is a general feeling that there's no love lost, there.
You also seem to be missing the fact that there are two new departments for dealing with Brexit. Boris will almost certainly be focused on the US/Asia/commonwealth. I was not expecting May to be a good PM, but that's one clusterfuck of a start. What the hell is she even thinking. Start by making a huge finger to countries that hold you by the balls and with whom you'll have to enter in terribly hard negotiations. I can only hope you will be so emphatic in apologising if you are proved wrong. Sure. I'll write a letter to nr10 Downing Street to apologize for being totally wrong on a Starcraft forum about that decision if Johnson ends up being a great, successful and respected minister of foreign affairs. I'm not risking much. Exactly my point. You're overflowing with confidence because you'll never be held to account. Calm down, be dignified and measured. You know nothing of me, and I am the first to recognize when I'm wrong. If we can avoid being personal AND patronizing, it would be good. When you talk of countries like France 'having [the UK] by the balls', you've earned a little ridicule. The UK trades with the EU at an enormous deficit (and it does not, contrary to your assertion, make up the 'overwhelming majority' of our trade). France trades with the UK at a huge surplus. If France wants to cripple its most successful trading relationship while the Eurozone teeters on the edge of the abyss, it is more than welcome to do so. The Uk is more dependent on the eurozone than any country of the eurozone if of the UK. If the UK leaves the free market and doesn't get anything in return, it impacts the 70% of its foreign trades it does with the EU. France doesn't do 70% of its foreign trade with the UK. If you want to talk ridicule try to get your logic right. The problem is not trade deficit, but that Britain is tiny compared to the rest of the EU. Every economist agrees that the Brexit will impact the UK more than the EU, and that impact will be proportional to how much they botch those negotiations. Anyway. It was about you not getting personal, and apparently you insist. Can you stop? Thanks. When you stop saying stupid things like 'every economist agrees' and 'the vast majority of your trade' that betray your tedious bias. The intuitions most people are working with in this thread vastly underestimate how tenuous a position the Eurozone is in. UK economic fundamentals are strong; meanwhile, the Eurozone is balanced on a knife edge, making their negotiating position deceptively weak. One of the main reasons Cameron called the referendum so early was because he wanted to avoid Greece being in the news again while campaigning. As it turns out Italy looks to be the next flashpoint. In any case, it will be very much in the interests of all involved, not just the UK, to work out a sensible deal with minimal disruption. Michael Gove: "People in this country have had enough of experts" Glory to Michael Gove, our god. Glory to his prophet, stupidtown.
Can you just go to the EU thread? You can talk about Brexit there from an EU perspective. The only thing you do here is gloat.
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On July 15 2016 06:57 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2016 06:48 Shield wrote:On July 15 2016 06:43 bardtown wrote:On July 15 2016 05:43 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 15 2016 00:32 bardtown wrote:On July 15 2016 00:12 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 23:34 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 23:29 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 23:25 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 22:57 Biff The Understudy wrote: [quote]
I was not expecting May to be a good PM, but that's one clusterfuck of a start. What the hell is she even thinking. Start by making a huge finger to countries that hold you by the balls and with whom you'll have to enter in terribly hard negotiations. I can only hope you will be so emphatic in apologising if you are proved wrong. Sure. I'll write a letter to nr10 Downing Street to apologize for being totally wrong on a Starcraft forum about that decision if Johnson ends up being a great, successful and respected minister of foreign affairs. I'm not risking much. Exactly my point. You're overflowing with confidence because you'll never be held to account. Calm down, be dignified and measured. You know nothing of me, and I am the first to recognize when I'm wrong. If we can avoid being personal AND patronizing, it would be good. When you talk of countries like France 'having [the UK] by the balls', you've earned a little ridicule. The UK trades with the EU at an enormous deficit (and it does not, contrary to your assertion, make up the 'overwhelming majority' of our trade). France trades with the UK at a huge surplus. If France wants to cripple its most successful trading relationship while the Eurozone teeters on the edge of the abyss, it is more than welcome to do so. The Uk is more dependent on the eurozone than any country of the eurozone if of the UK. If the UK leaves the free market and doesn't get anything in return, it impacts the 70% of its foreign trades it does with the EU. France doesn't do 70% of its foreign trade with the UK. If you want to talk ridicule try to get your logic right. The problem is not trade deficit, but that Britain is tiny compared to the rest of the EU. Every economist agrees that the Brexit will impact the UK more than the EU, and that impact will be proportional to how much they botch those negotiations. Anyway. It was about you not getting personal, and apparently you insist. Can you stop? Thanks. When you stop saying stupid things like 'every economist agrees' and 'the vast majority of your trade' that betray your tedious bias. The intuitions most people are working with in this thread vastly underestimate how tenuous a position the Eurozone is in. UK economic fundamentals are strong; meanwhile, the Eurozone is balanced on a knife edge, making their negotiating position deceptively weak. One of the main reasons Cameron called the referendum so early was because he wanted to avoid Greece being in the news again while campaigning. As it turns out Italy looks to be the next flashpoint. In any case, it will be very much in the interests of all involved, not just the UK, to work out a sensible deal with minimal disruption. Michael Gove: "People in this country have had enough of experts" Glory to Michael Gove, our god. Glory to his prophet, stupidtown. Can you just go to the EU thread? You can talk about Brexit there from an EU perspective. The only thing you do here is gloat.
I don't gloat. You embarrass yourself without my help. I'm here to point out how stupid your statement is to ignore what key experts say.
Round 1: + Show Spoiler +
Round 2: + Show Spoiler +http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/19/we-nobel-prize-winning-economists-believe-the-uk-is-better-off-in-the-eu
Round 3: + Show Spoiler +http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-35772714
Round 4: + Show Spoiler +Did you really need round 4? It's already over for clowntown.
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On July 15 2016 07:04 Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2016 06:57 bardtown wrote:On July 15 2016 06:48 Shield wrote:On July 15 2016 06:43 bardtown wrote:On July 15 2016 05:43 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 15 2016 00:32 bardtown wrote:On July 15 2016 00:12 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 23:34 bardtown wrote:On July 14 2016 23:29 Biff The Understudy wrote:On July 14 2016 23:25 bardtown wrote: [quote]
I can only hope you will be so emphatic in apologising if you are proved wrong. Sure. I'll write a letter to nr10 Downing Street to apologize for being totally wrong on a Starcraft forum about that decision if Johnson ends up being a great, successful and respected minister of foreign affairs. I'm not risking much. Exactly my point. You're overflowing with confidence because you'll never be held to account. Calm down, be dignified and measured. You know nothing of me, and I am the first to recognize when I'm wrong. If we can avoid being personal AND patronizing, it would be good. When you talk of countries like France 'having [the UK] by the balls', you've earned a little ridicule. The UK trades with the EU at an enormous deficit (and it does not, contrary to your assertion, make up the 'overwhelming majority' of our trade). France trades with the UK at a huge surplus. If France wants to cripple its most successful trading relationship while the Eurozone teeters on the edge of the abyss, it is more than welcome to do so. The Uk is more dependent on the eurozone than any country of the eurozone if of the UK. If the UK leaves the free market and doesn't get anything in return, it impacts the 70% of its foreign trades it does with the EU. France doesn't do 70% of its foreign trade with the UK. If you want to talk ridicule try to get your logic right. The problem is not trade deficit, but that Britain is tiny compared to the rest of the EU. Every economist agrees that the Brexit will impact the UK more than the EU, and that impact will be proportional to how much they botch those negotiations. Anyway. It was about you not getting personal, and apparently you insist. Can you stop? Thanks. When you stop saying stupid things like 'every economist agrees' and 'the vast majority of your trade' that betray your tedious bias. The intuitions most people are working with in this thread vastly underestimate how tenuous a position the Eurozone is in. UK economic fundamentals are strong; meanwhile, the Eurozone is balanced on a knife edge, making their negotiating position deceptively weak. One of the main reasons Cameron called the referendum so early was because he wanted to avoid Greece being in the news again while campaigning. As it turns out Italy looks to be the next flashpoint. In any case, it will be very much in the interests of all involved, not just the UK, to work out a sensible deal with minimal disruption. Michael Gove: "People in this country have had enough of experts" Glory to Michael Gove, our god. Glory to his prophet, stupidtown. Can you just go to the EU thread? You can talk about Brexit there from an EU perspective. The only thing you do here is gloat. I don't gloat. You embarrass yourself without my help. I'm here to point out how stupid your statement is to ignore what key experts say. Round 1: + Show Spoiler +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USTypBKEd8Y Round 2: + Show Spoiler +http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/19/we-nobel-prize-winning-economists-believe-the-uk-is-better-off-in-the-eu Round 3: + Show Spoiler +http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-35772714 Roudn 4: + Show Spoiler +Did you really need round 4? It's already over for clowntown.
Strawman.
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Gosh, I couldn't agree less with any of bardtowns views, but the tone and nonsensical posts by multiple users he is facing here is just... awful.
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On July 15 2016 02:39 Godwrath wrote: There are elections on Germany and France on 2017 right ? BJ seems like the best for the job, not only they get him tied to the project, but pretty sure May doesn't really want to negotiate until elections had passed. The Netherlands has an election in 2017 as well. Dunno if elections will change anything though.
UKs export with the EU is 40% not 70% of their trade. The real issue is that exports hardly responded in the last big drop in the currency in 2008 so the question is if it will now. If it won't all it does is reduce the purchasing power of the UK without any real benefits.
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Zurich15345 Posts
At this point I doubt a whole lot is going to happen for the next months or even years. I believe the UK gov will do anything to postpone invoking article 50 for as long as possible, and rather be in a state of continuous uncertainty than run off a cliff.
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