On February 12 2013 23:01 kafkaesque wrote: This makes me really uneasy.
A war against NK would probably entail a war against China as well, which makes me far from certain that China isn't pulling the strings in NK. If China seeks to solidify it's position as the world's mightiest nation, stomping the US of A into the ground would be a good first step. Given China's history of being assraped by white guys for centuries, I wouldn't be surprised by significant animosity.
You underestimate how uneasy China is with NK as well. NK keeps using Chinas support as leverage in being belligerent. Also China has warned NK not to take provocative actions, and have repeatedly been rebuffed.
Also China does not want all the refuges from NK a war would bring, and they would lose a buffer zone between them and the USA. Hell. According to wikileaks China indicated that it wouldn't be against a united Korea under the control of south Korea. As long as US troops do not move from there current location below the "no mans land" border between North and South Korea.
Not to mention that China probably does benefit quite a lot more from business with SK than being buddy-buddy with an old communist state.
And not to mention how dependent China is on USA. So destroying USA would harm them just as much.
That is just plain wrong. USA is more dependant on China then the other way around. With USA destroyed China could claim all the oil in the world. Lack of oil is what is holding back China.
you misunderstand dependencies.. without the USA, who would china get money from/sell to? without china, USA would still be able to acquire what we need, just for a little bit more money
supply doesn't do much without demand... china can have all the factories they want, but if we don't want their services, they are next to useless
On February 13 2013 04:31 Gentso wrote: Couldn't the US use some kind of stealth bomber to eliminate all weapons targeted at South Korea to avoid any scenario of Seoul getting destroyed?
Sounds like hollywood. Not sure if this a serious question ...
On February 13 2013 04:31 Gentso wrote: Couldn't the US use some kind of stealth bomber to eliminate all weapons targeted at South Korea to avoid any scenario of Seoul getting destroyed?
this is basically how i see this playing out if NK does actually try to launch a nuke.. (with US intervention)
On February 13 2013 04:31 Gentso wrote: Couldn't the US use some kind of stealth bomber to eliminate all weapons targeted at South Korea to avoid any scenario of Seoul getting destroyed?
Then again, does US know every possible artillery placement in North Korea that is capable of destroying a city in a heart beat? While we've seen pictures of possible artillery placements near the border and such, i'm pretty sure they aren't the only ones that are ready to execute orders.
On February 13 2013 04:31 Gentso wrote: Couldn't the US use some kind of stealth bomber to eliminate all weapons targeted at South Korea to avoid any scenario of Seoul getting destroyed?
Then again, does US know every possible artillery placement in North Korea that is capable of destroying a city in a heart beat? While we've seen pictures of possible artillery placements near the border and such, i'm pretty sure they aren't the only ones that are ready to execute orders.
On February 13 2013 04:31 Gentso wrote: Couldn't the US use some kind of stealth bomber to eliminate all weapons targeted at South Korea to avoid any scenario of Seoul getting destroyed?
Then again, does US know every possible artillery placement in North Korea that is capable of destroying a city in a heart beat? While we've seen pictures of possible artillery placements near the border and such, i'm pretty sure they aren't the only ones that are ready to execute orders.
I wonder how much of that is actually useless because of fuel shortages and improper maintenance.
Even with this knowledge it's not like there is a massive American army poised to strike in Korea. IIRC an American soldier was talking about how in a N. Korean invasion the American Garrison would likely be slaughtered while stalling for American assets to get to the region.
N. Korea would lose the war eventually but before they did they could inflict millions of casualties on the South especially in Seoul.
On February 13 2013 04:31 Gentso wrote: Couldn't the US use some kind of stealth bomber to eliminate all weapons targeted at South Korea to avoid any scenario of Seoul getting destroyed?
Then again, does US know every possible artillery placement in North Korea that is capable of destroying a city in a heart beat? While we've seen pictures of possible artillery placements near the border and such, i'm pretty sure they aren't the only ones that are ready to execute orders.
Yep, we/they do know a lot, as i said, but i doubt they know everything. Oh, while we are discussing about all of this, this is pretty interesting thread i suggest to check out.
Even with this knowledge it's not like there is a massive American army poised to strike in Korea. IIRC an American soldier was talking about how in a N. Korean invasion the American Garrison would likely be slaughtered while stalling for American assets to get to the region.
N. Korea would lose the war eventually but before they did they could inflict millions of casualties on the South especially in Seoul.
That's actually a good question, considering that's what pretty much happened the first time around in 1950. I looked it up - according to Wikipedia, United States Forces Korea has about 29K troops, while United States Forces Japan (including the 7th Fleet and 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force) has about 36K troops. Regarding 1950, I believe that for the most part, the US only had a five hundred man task force (TF Smith) in Korea in the opening days of the invasion. And let's not forget the state of ROK's military, which is in a much better state than it was back then.
And considering the DMZ, as well as how far Allied military technology has advanced compared to North Korean tech (I wouldn't be surprised if they were still using T-54s and MiG-15s), I doubt the North Koreans would make any progress past the border at all unless they had WMD or a giant laser beam of doom.
On February 13 2013 04:31 Gentso wrote: Couldn't the US use some kind of stealth bomber to eliminate all weapons targeted at South Korea to avoid any scenario of Seoul getting destroyed?
Then again, does US know every possible artillery placement in North Korea that is capable of destroying a city in a heart beat? While we've seen pictures of possible artillery placements near the border and such, i'm pretty sure they aren't the only ones that are ready to execute orders.
It is conceivable that the US/SK could destroy the attack potential of NK with a massive conventional first strike to the extend that SK casualties would be somewhat acceptable in the following exchange.
However, this is not going to happen because the US can't just secretly ship that much firepower into the region. And if they tried, they would risk NK preventing the preventive strike by attacking first themselves - which would be catastrophic to SK.
Even with this knowledge it's not like there is a massive American army poised to strike in Korea. IIRC an American soldier was talking about how in a N. Korean invasion the American Garrison would likely be slaughtered while stalling for American assets to get to the region.
N. Korea would lose the war eventually but before they did they could inflict millions of casualties on the South especially in Seoul.
That's actually a good question, considering that's what pretty much happened the first time around in 1950. I looked it up - according to Wikipedia, United States Forces Korea has about 29K troops, while United States Forces Japan (including the 7th Fleet and 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force) has about 36K troops. Regarding 1950, I believe that for the most part, the US only had a five hundred man task force (TF Smith) in Korea in the opening days of the invasion. And let's not forget the state of ROK's military, which is in a much better state than it was back then.
And considering the DMZ, as well as how far Allied military technology has advanced compared to North Korean tech (I wouldn't be surprised if they were still using T-54s and MiG-15s), I doubt the North Koreans would make any progress past the border at all unless they had WMD or a giant laser beam of doom.
Look up ZM-87 on wiki you would be surprised what they have in there arsenal
On February 13 2013 04:31 Gentso wrote: Couldn't the US use some kind of stealth bomber to eliminate all weapons targeted at South Korea to avoid any scenario of Seoul getting destroyed?
Then again, does US know every possible artillery placement in North Korea that is capable of destroying a city in a heart beat? While we've seen pictures of possible artillery placements near the border and such, i'm pretty sure they aren't the only ones that are ready to execute orders.
It is conceivable that the US/SK could destroy the attack potential of NK with a massive conventional first strike to the extend that SK casualties would be somewhat acceptable in the following exchange.
However, this is not going to happen because the US can't just secretly ship that much firepower into the region. And if they tried, they would risk NK preventing the preventive strike by attacking first themselves - which would be catastrophic to SK.
On February 13 2013 04:31 Gentso wrote: Couldn't the US use some kind of stealth bomber to eliminate all weapons targeted at South Korea to avoid any scenario of Seoul getting destroyed?
Then again, does US know every possible artillery placement in North Korea that is capable of destroying a city in a heart beat? While we've seen pictures of possible artillery placements near the border and such, i'm pretty sure they aren't the only ones that are ready to execute orders.
It is conceivable that the US/SK could destroy the attack potential of NK with a massive conventional first strike to the extend that SK casualties would be somewhat acceptable in the following exchange.
However, this is not going to happen because the US can't just secretly ship that much firepower into the region. And if they tried, they would risk NK preventing the preventive strike by attacking first themselves - which would be catastrophic to SK.
The US has plenty of aircraft carriers for that, they don't have to lug howitzers all the way onto the korean peninsula.
Also, because of its all-seeing satellites, the US would know north korean military movement and other indications of an artillery strike beforehand. In an ideal situation, south korean and US intelligence would identify north korean plans to attack south korean cities and then send fighter jets to bomb the north koreans before they are able to do significant damage.
As far as the NK artilery scenario goes I think people VASTLY over-estimate the damage NK could really do to Seoul This article does a good job explaining how there are many misconceptions about how much damage the NK artilery could effectively do.
There probably will not be a war. NK will be shut down quickly if anything develops. Basically all countries are against their behavior. Even China which are their closest allies stand against the nuclear launches.
They just did the test underground. 6 to 7 kilotons, apparently miniaturized too, coupled with their recent improved ballistic missile tests it's getting pretty scary. This is far more of a threat than Iraq ever was, but I doubt the US wants to invade as it'll just be so messy/unprofitable.
On February 13 2013 10:12 triforks wrote: I guess I mean how much longer does NK have? Will they be around in 1 year? 5?
They seem pretty suicidal with these threats.
Also, even if nothing more develops, this can't go on forever. I think the end is imminent at this point.
Yeah, I sort of wonder when the day will come when I go on TL and see something catastrophic has happened.
I found out about Kim Jong Il's death before it was even showing on the news lol. I was going on a flight that day so it was like 4 am and I was reading about it for 10-15 minutes before it popped up on the news.
EPT![[image loading]](http://gifsoup.com/view6/2408555/accessed-denied-o.gif)
