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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
On October 31 2016 12:49 radscorpion9 wrote: Isn't this so crazy though? First no one thought Trump would get the nomination, then everyone (including me) thought he would be crushed in the general election. It looked totally hopeless after everyone was piling on to him about his sexual commentary. But now...especially with the e-mails (and maybe regardless of them) Trump is effectively tied with hillary in many polls and is gaining ground, and who knows how bad things will get on Nov.1st when Wikileaks and anonymous release Hillary's 33000 deleted e-mails (supposedly).
Another example of how often predictions go wrong. Brexit and Trump, it could really happen folks. Soon we may be saying "President Trump"! WOW
He is getting crushed. Like, he could get lucky and pull it out, but he's been behind in the polls consistently, often by catastrophic margins. I fully admit predictions were wrong about Trump's chances at the nomination... but polls were actually quite accurate (slightly overstating his actual vote share). You can doubt the pundits all you want, but polls have been accurate even in this wacky election.
On October 31 2016 14:41 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: the biggest obstacle to a trump victory now is some kind of huge scandal that postpones the election.Clinton cannot win this and it amazes me some people are still clinging on to that hope.
There is literally no scandal that could postpone the election. What scenario are you envisioning here? Also, on what grounds do you argue she "cannot win." Like, I get it if you're saying, polls are wrong for X,Y,Z reason, and so he's actually got a fighting chance, but actually describing "people clinging onto that hope" seems bizarre.
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On October 31 2016 22:43 Yoav wrote:Show nested quote +On October 31 2016 12:49 radscorpion9 wrote: Isn't this so crazy though? First no one thought Trump would get the nomination, then everyone (including me) thought he would be crushed in the general election. It looked totally hopeless after everyone was piling on to him about his sexual commentary. But now...especially with the e-mails (and maybe regardless of them) Trump is effectively tied with hillary in many polls and is gaining ground, and who knows how bad things will get on Nov.1st when Wikileaks and anonymous release Hillary's 33000 deleted e-mails (supposedly).
Another example of how often predictions go wrong. Brexit and Trump, it could really happen folks. Soon we may be saying "President Trump"! WOW
He is getting crushed. Like, he could get lucky and pull it out, but he's been behind in the polls consistently, often by catastrophic margins. I fully admit predictions were wrong about Trump's chances at the nomination... but polls were actually quite accurate (slightly overstating his actual vote share). You can doubt the pundits all you want, but polls have been accurate even in this wacky election. Show nested quote +On October 31 2016 14:41 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: the biggest obstacle to a trump victory now is some kind of huge scandal that postpones the election.Clinton cannot win this and it amazes me some people are still clinging on to that hope. There is literally no scandal that could postpone the election. What scenario are you envisioning here? Also, on what grounds do you argue she "cannot win." Like, I get it if you're saying, polls are wrong for X,Y,Z reason, and so he's actually got a fighting chance, but actually describing "people clinging onto that hope" seems bizarre.
A nation wide Earthquake on the night before election day, obviously caused by the Chinese in cooperation with Clinton.
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On October 31 2016 20:18 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 31 2016 20:06 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On October 31 2016 14:47 hunts wrote:On October 31 2016 14:41 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On October 31 2016 14:34 ticklishmusic wrote:On October 31 2016 14:29 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On October 31 2016 14:23 ticklishmusic wrote:On October 31 2016 14:23 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On October 31 2016 13:50 xDaunt wrote:On October 31 2016 13:43 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: I've heard the rumours about these weiner emails containing something connecting the Clintons to paedophilia but thats just speculation at this stage.Hopefully it is false because that would be downright disturbing plus the likeliest outcome would be a postponed election and absolute chaos.I hope to god those rumours are false. Lol, where the fuck did you hear that? @davidgoldbergny on twitter. Claims source is people within the NYPD hey nettles, want to do a 2 day ban bet on if this is real or not? Not particularly, I just said i hope it ain't real but who knows with this crazy election.If you want to be on the side of it being real I'm up for it but being temp banned would be the least of our issues if it's legit. so you continue to post stuff you won't stand by. sounds good to me. On the contrary I put another $100 in bets on the election yesterday.$70 on Trump winning Ohio at 1.53 and $30 on him winning NH at 4.30.Combine with the bets i made last month and Ive got $260 on the outcome.I put my money where my mouth is, the biggest obstacle to a trump victory now is some kind of huge scandal that postpones the election.Clinton cannot win this and it amazes me some people are still clinging on to that hope. I'd say biggest obstacle to a trump victory is reality The reality is the democratic candidate just had her case re-opened by the FBI 11 days before the election. Let's just let that sink in around here. Was it really a re-opening, though? It seems like a lot of noice about very little substance. Not to mention, the guy probably broke the law coming forth with that kind of information that late, and should at least lose his job imo. I was reading quite a bit about the e-mail "scandal", and I can't see what is the big issue about it, but it is the best card the Trump campaign has. Where is the FBI investigating Trumps sexual assaults, or scanning his emails? it is a re-opening; but that doesn't mean much. open basically means they're working on the case. closed means they're not working on it. cases reopen and close all the times. for a long-running investigation, it might get reopened if a credible new tip comes in, or new evidence, or just people dusting off the cold case files to take another look. In this case it was they got new evidence so they reopen it to see if the new evidence helps at all. It'd be nice if the'yd waited until they knew whether the new evidence is meaningful before interjecting.
most of Trumps alleged sexual assaults (all of them really that I've heard of) seem to have been in person, so there's no interstate action which would justify federal involvement. Instead they'd all be handled by the relevant state level investigators in each jurisdiction in question. Thus there's no reason for the FBI to scan his emails.
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Clintons unfavourability rating just hit an all time high.
![[image loading]](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2016/10/31/2016.10.31%20-%20ABC%20Wapo%202_0.JPG)
Clinton is seen unfavorably by 60 percent of likely voters in the latest results, a new high. Trump’s seen unfavorably by essentially as many, 58 percent. Marking the depth of these views, 49 percent see Clinton “strongly” unfavorably, and 48 percent say the same about Trump –unusual levels of strong sentiment. Beneath these results is a possible slip in enthusiasm for Clinton: Using just the last two nights’ results – after FBI Director James Comey revealed a further Clinton-related email investigation – 47 percent of her supporters say they’re very enthusiastic about her, compared with 51 percent across the previous six nights.
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On October 31 2016 22:23 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On October 31 2016 22:21 ticklishmusic wrote: Oh Nettles has all sorts of unverified election bets going on along with his amazing gold income. It's yuuuge. You wouldn't believe the size. Given the sort of garbage masquerading as journalism he's willing to bet, my skepticism of his claims extends to pretty much everything. Well the guy who asked for my share trading data shut up pretty quick when i posted it. Here. 4.1m.yt
Fair enough.
I will agree that it makes sense more to bet there where you get better odds rather than even odds here. I look forward to be taking that money from you in a couple weeks though.
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I want to just hibernate for 8 days and wake up to all this being over.
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On October 31 2016 23:33 ticklishmusic wrote:Show nested quote +On October 31 2016 22:23 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On October 31 2016 22:21 ticklishmusic wrote: Oh Nettles has all sorts of unverified election bets going on along with his amazing gold income. It's yuuuge. You wouldn't believe the size. Given the sort of garbage masquerading as journalism he's willing to bet, my skepticism of his claims extends to pretty much everything. Well the guy who asked for my share trading data shut up pretty quick when i posted it. Here. 4.1m.yt I look forward to be taking that money from you in a couple weeks though.  Sorry this thread moves fast sometimes i can forget. Did i agree to a bet with you?
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On October 31 2016 23:29 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Clintons unfavourability rating just hit an all time high. ![[image loading]](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2016/10/31/2016.10.31%20-%20ABC%20Wapo%202_0.JPG) Clinton is seen unfavorably by 60 percent of likely voters in the latest results, a new high. Trump’s seen unfavorably by essentially as many, 58 percent. Marking the depth of these views, 49 percent see Clinton “strongly” unfavorably, and 48 percent say the same about Trump –unusual levels of strong sentiment. Beneath these results is a possible slip in enthusiasm for Clinton: Using just the last two nights’ results – after FBI Director James Comey revealed a further Clinton-related email investigation – 47 percent of her supporters say they’re very enthusiastic about her, compared with 51 percent across the previous six nights.
Clinton's unfavorability ratings seem so odd to me, but maybe not as odd as they should be. Basically anytime she's doing what's actually part of her job or any job at all people seem to generally like her. Anytime she's under the radar (disregarding the recent Comey stuff) she becomes unlikeable.
Then Trump is basically the opposite where they more he speaks the less people like him, but people seem quick to forget how much they don't like him.
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On October 31 2016 23:39 Mohdoo wrote: I want to just hibernate for 8 days and wake up to all this being over.
We could all just go on a coke fueled bender. Might be the end of the world anyway!
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On October 31 2016 21:14 Liquid`Drone wrote:Show nested quote +On October 31 2016 13:24 LegalLord wrote: We almost had one of the regulars hop off the Hillary train after the DNC leaks. But I'm sure they will ultimately convince themselves that they must defeat Trump no matter the costs, no matter how bad the candidate actually is. Why are you speaking about 'they'? aren't you squarely rooted in this camp yourself? Not really. For the moment I do feel that Hillary is the better option but I've definitely spoken a lot about how I'd be inclined to vote differently under circumstances that call for it.
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Lynch meets with Bill --> recused herself from investigation --> Comey has to make a weird press conference --> has to attend multiple hearings to explain himself where under oath he says case is closed --> new evidence --> now he's screwed either way regardless of what he does --> he chose to notify congress. Maybe there will be another hearing with the dems questioning him this time.
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Alright, this reply to LegalLord's very flawed post on NATO is going to be a long one (I hadn't found the time to comment properly before today). Read on if you're interested in NATO & U.S. foreign policy.
*** + Show Spoiler [Pretty long post by LegalLord on NATO] +On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2016 07:12 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 07:04 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 07:03 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 06:53 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:46 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 06:40 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:37 Plansix wrote:On October 01 2016 06:34 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:28 LegalLord wrote: [quote] If NATO is used as a means to start wars and get people dragged into not-their-war as it sometimes does, the alliance will break apart. Not in a year, probably not in a decade, but well within our lifetimes. Instead, it should reconfigure itself to focus more on genuinely important matters like fighting terrorism (for real, not just to oust leaders they don't like under the guise of anti-terrorism) and non-proliferation. Remind me, what was the one time NATO was used to drag people into war? And what was that war about? Are you saying that it has fucked over the EU more time than it has fucked over the US? Well, that and the only times any of the war articles were invoked were about terrorist groups and Middle Eastern wars. Of course, that factoid is about as relevant as the fact that the US has not declared war since WWII. Technically true, but also fully missing the point that it really is just a technicality because official application of the legal statutes is much more significant than just their "informal" use. Well, okay? But I don't see what that has to do with NATO now. I mean, France said fuck off when you tried to drag them into Iraq. Sure, you gave them the stink-eye for it, but they're still in NATO. Coercion comes in more forms than just legal mandate. Right, so which wars were the US dragged into by coercion? I'll give a better response in a few hours. On the road right now. Guuuh. What a miserable day of travel. Anyways, let's start with a very brief history of NATO. In the aftermath of WWII, most of Europe was pretty badly war-torn, but the US was quite well off - it managed to avoid battle in its own country by virtue of being two oceans away from the battlefield. Germany had fought its second gigantic war in a very short period of time and the country was split into four because people feared a third German war. The US also had the Marshall Plan and other initiatives meant to foster the reconstruction of Europe, but of course reconstructed in such a way that it benefited the US and its FP alignment. NATO also came out of this period. After China became communist and the Korean War was fought, there was a genuine threat in the form of a Chinese-Soviet alliance, which could very well become a threat that could outdo the US. So NATO reunited West Germany into one country (because Germany is a strong ally, despite its danger) and became focused on deterrence of communism. Obviously it's a partisan geopolitical goal but that's fine; countries have those. A rather positive side effect of that alliance was that Europe started to come together into an economic community of its own, which took many forms but has since coalesced into the European Union. The reasons for NATO's existence have mostly faded. The Warsaw Pact / USSR alliance collapsed, and while it is likely that Russia will eventually recover a lot of the strength that the alliance had, the bigger reason that Russia and China really aren't allies and never were. They will work together if it's a geopolitical necessity but they really aren't fundamentally compatible on an ideological level. USSR and China were enemies as much allies a lot of the time. They were both nominally communist but the reality was that they were far from the same kind of communism. The possibility of a Chinese invasion of Siberia was well-explored and considered to be a realistic threat that needed to be addressed in Russia. Since the 1990s, NATO has been... different. I'm sure we're all at least somewhat familiar with the neoconservative movement, which basically takes the perspective that the US and the American view of democracy is the One True Path and that others should be coerced into joining that circle; basically the whole "spreading democracy" shtick is this. There's also a liberal equivalent, which is more or less the same but also has a cultural/economic hegemony element to it and has a cultural objectivist viewpoint (this group is somewhat poorly defined, but I personally refer to such people by the "neoliberal" label which is imperfect, but close to what it's meant to be). Both of these viewpoints became far more mainstream after the end of the USSR and they have a large influence on the modern policy of the US and its most loyal supporters. An interesting document of neocon policy that has played a large role in modern FP was the Wolfowitz Doctrine. The long and short of it is, it's a doctrine that views the US as the one and only superpower in the world and that the US should keep it that way. To do so, the goal was simply to convince a lot of countries to abandon their ambitions of being world powers in their own right (Japan and Germany) and to prevent the rise of those who really can't be controlled (Russia and China; this made much more sense in the early 1990s). Basically it was a gigantic display of arrogance that overestimated the strength of the US in the world; there have been stronger empires in the past, they weren't ever able to do what the Wolfowitz Doctrine set out to do, and those didn't have to worry about their enemies having "nah fuck it all of you die" nukes if their existence was threatened. Nevertheless it's a very influential document that defines the US foreign policy to this day. To a large extent NATO has always been an extension of the will of the US foreign policy ambitions, and was designed that way from the beginning. When you say "when has the US been forced into a war because of NATO?" you are missing the point. The US is the one that forces other countries into war. The 1990s saw some pretty imperialistic actions under NATO - most notably its involvement in Yugoslavia and somewhat in the Middle East, and a lot of these were simply blatant attempts to realign nations more closely with what the US would like. The years since then have been pretty similar, but Russia and China are a lot stronger than they were in that brief period of the 1990s and are much more capable of reacting and standing in the way of NATO than they were back then. The reaction of the US has been to meddle with the geopolitics of those countries by escalating conflicts that those nations have that existed, but have mostly been suppressed. Ukraine, Georgia, South China Sea, Chinese-Japanese land disputes, etc. Note that the military actions of NATO as an entity have been entirely in the post-Soviet era. However, the issue is that the US usually doesn't fight these wars itself - it uses Europe to fight those wars on its behalf. Note that Japan and the South China Sea countries in East Asia, and the EU in Europe, are the major parties that actually act to support US interests in the area - under military/economic coercion. Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to. Nevertheless, other countries get dragged into not-their-battle very easily and the NATO framework is to a large extent the means by which this occurs. The current refugee crisis is also a pretty significant not-their-battle that Europe has been dragged into, with rather substantial consequences. Now, what about the incidental effect of the alliance, the newly found unification of Europe? Well to put it simply, it's already happened. The EU may or may not survive - the current structure involves more powerful EU nations exploiting weaker EU nations and very adamantly refusing to change - but the idea of a European economic union will almost certainly survive. The security alliance may not - frankly, most countries are not inherently aligned with US interests on international matters. Britain is (the "special relationship" is a strong cultural closeness that has been acknowledged for well over a century), but France, Germany, and most of the rest of Europe are not particularly so and often diverge from US interests. France, in fact, while being in NATO also sought to, in the event of war with the East, establish its own "separate peace" and as such developed a lot of its own military/nuclear capability. Germany is still fearful of appearing to be the Nazis again and has deliberately crippled a lot of its potential to be a powerful military nation. Turkey is... Turkey. Though they may have some willingness to comply with the FP ambitions of the US at present, a consistent divergence in FP ambitions is very apparent and if the US abuses its favorable political arrangement then it will slowly but surely degrade the viability of the alliance. So in a sense, it is very true that NATO is obsolete. Its original goal - to contain the geopolitical threat of a unified communist opposition - is not the threat it was feared to be. At present, it is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy. It's a very short-sighted approach that will undermine the existence of an alliance which, given valid cooperation with Russia, China, non-member allies, etc., can be very effective as a means to fight terrorism and enforce non-proliferation. Terrorism is an obvious threat, not just because people die in terrorist attacks but because the existence of terrorism strongly destabilizes the region where the terrorists operate, and nuclear proliferation just increases the danger that stupid countries without good nuclear policy start a nuclear war. Terrorism really does require international cooperation; if one side fights the terrorists but some other side supplies them, then the terrorists usually win one way or another. Non-proliferation also requires rather unified cooperation because the best way to convince a nation to abandon nuclear ambitions seems to be to show them that the rest of the world isn't really willing to offer them the means to do so. So, after all that, let's get back to Trump. He did make the very valid observation that NATO in its current form is obsolete. It's a rare observation and not one made by many politicians, or any mainstream ones at all for that matter. It's so strongly against the current established system that it's generally political suicide to push for that position. To a large extent, having a strong military is a very good thing - the military is very good at pushing some genuinely valuable technological innovation, and also paves the way for a lot of very useful economic developments (e.g. Silicon Valley started from a very substantial military investment, the current Russian IT boom is very military-derivative). The problem, however, is that in the wrong hands, more military means more war. This is the entire idea of "beware of the military-industrial complex" which is just the observation that while the military is a good thing, it's often tied to more war. Unfortunately, Trump went after a rather minor issue: other countries "taking advantage" of the US in their nations. Yes, it is true that the US does a lot of the military heavy lifting for many nations, but this is by design. Yes, there are some nations that get more than they put into NATO, not in security but simply in the form of monetary infusion from servicing American military personnel within their country. But a lot of the US "heavy lifting" is by design, and the US is wealthy enough that it's really not economically painful for it to keep up its military involvement as it is now. The arguments against this point are easy to make because he's wrong about how to go about reducing NATO. Still, he does deserve credit for being one of the only people to acknowledge that the current framework of NATO is wrong and it needs to reform. Maybe Trump will pave the way for a more level-headed politician to address the proper issues, or maybe he will undermine the entire idea of reforming NATO based on more realistic goals. The risk of not doing so is to lead countries away from the current security structure into one that is more dangerous for the world - while there is absolutely a lot of benefit to a multipolar world (a unipolar power is a dangerous exercise in arrogance), there really is a lot of benefit in preventing every strong nation from clashing over political interests and for that there needs to be a framework for encouraging cooperation, and Trump's plan would undermine that. The risk is that Trump might undermine the entire idea of reforming NATO by association with stupidity. It's always hard to know how things like this will play out - historically, both have happened. Personally I think that Trump's position really lets people know that there is a strong underlying sentiment that NATO needs reforming, and that some politicians will be able to push for that in a more realistic manner, so I do give credit to Trump for acknowledging issues of importance.
I have to respond here, because this post contains a lot of inaccuracies, vague and/or misleading shortcuts & oversimplifications, distortions, as well as outright falsehoods. Some assertions point towards a lack of understanding of NATO's history and functioning. I'm all for debating the merits of the continued existence of NATO and of past, present and future operations undertaken under the NATO framework, but an intelligent discussion on these issues requires an informed understanding of the reality of the organization and an avoidance of superficial caricatures.
I will address the contents of your post paragraph by paragraph, while tackling your larger points in the process as well.
On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2016 07:12 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 07:04 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 07:03 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 06:53 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:46 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 06:40 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:37 Plansix wrote:On October 01 2016 06:34 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:28 LegalLord wrote: [quote] If NATO is used as a means to start wars and get people dragged into not-their-war as it sometimes does, the alliance will break apart. Not in a year, probably not in a decade, but well within our lifetimes. Instead, it should reconfigure itself to focus more on genuinely important matters like fighting terrorism (for real, not just to oust leaders they don't like under the guise of anti-terrorism) and non-proliferation. Remind me, what was the one time NATO was used to drag people into war? And what was that war about? Are you saying that it has fucked over the EU more time than it has fucked over the US? Well, that and the only times any of the war articles were invoked were about terrorist groups and Middle Eastern wars. Of course, that factoid is about as relevant as the fact that the US has not declared war since WWII. Technically true, but also fully missing the point that it really is just a technicality because official application of the legal statutes is much more significant than just their "informal" use. Well, okay? But I don't see what that has to do with NATO now. I mean, France said fuck off when you tried to drag them into Iraq. Sure, you gave them the stink-eye for it, but they're still in NATO. Coercion comes in more forms than just legal mandate. Right, so which wars were the US dragged into by coercion? I'll give a better response in a few hours. On the road right now. Guuuh. What a miserable day of travel. Anyways, let's start with a very brief history of NATO. In the aftermath of WWII, most of Europe was pretty badly war-torn, but the US was quite well off - it managed to avoid battle in its own country by virtue of being two oceans away from the battlefield. Germany had fought its second gigantic war in a very short period of time and the country was split into four because people feared a third German war. The US also had the Marshall Plan and other initiatives meant to foster the reconstruction of Europe, but of course reconstructed in such a way that it benefited the US and its FP alignment. NATO also came out of this period. After China became communist and the Korean War was fought, there was a genuine threat in the form of a Chinese-Soviet alliance, which could very well become a threat that could outdo the US. So NATO reunited West Germany into one country (because Germany is a strong ally, despite its danger) and became focused on deterrence of communism. Obviously it's a partisan geopolitical goal but that's fine; countries have those. A rather positive side effect of that alliance was that Europe started to come together into an economic community of its own, which took many forms but has since coalesced into the European Union. The reasons for NATO's existence have mostly faded. The Warsaw Pact / USSR alliance collapsed, and while it is likely that Russia will eventually recover a lot of the strength that the alliance had, the bigger reason that Russia and China really aren't allies and never were. They will work together if it's a geopolitical necessity but they really aren't fundamentally compatible on an ideological level. USSR and China were enemies as much allies a lot of the time. They were both nominally communist but the reality was that they were far from the same kind of communism. The possibility of a Chinese invasion of Siberia was well-explored and considered to be a realistic threat that needed to be addressed in Russia. This introduction muddies the timeline and the causal relationships between events. The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in April 1949 and the Federal Republic of Germany was created in May of the same year. Neither were a reaction to Mao's forces prevailing in China or to the beginning of the Korean War -- in fact, the Korean war started more than a year after both events, in June 1950. NATO was created with the threat of Soviet expansionism in mind specifically, not because of the potential threat of a Soviet-Chinese alliance. The tensions between the USSR and the People's Republic of China were noticed by the Americans during the Cold War, and Kissinger in particular sought to exploit them by initiating a diplomatic rapprochement between the US and the PRC. These tensions were and are irrelevant to the matter of whether or not NATO is obsolete.
The impact that the Korean war did have, however, was to help convince some in the West who were until then reluctant about rearming West Germany, that its rearmament was a necessity as a precaution against possible Soviet territorial ambitions. Many decision-makers in the West indeed saw Stalin's influence between North Korea's invasion of its southern neighbor (and later China's participation in the war) -- they felt that the USSR was testing the West's resolve against Soviet expansionism. Adenauer already supported rearmament, and the Korean war helped move public opinion towards his position. Pressure from the U.S. also led France to agree to the change, although with some caveats: the French initially pushed for the creation of a supranational European Defence Community, aiming to allay their concerns about an independent German military. The project fell through when it was rejected by the French Parliament in 1954, and West Germany was instead admitted into NATO and the Western European Union, using those frameworks instead to ease concerns about its rearmament.
Finally, "Europe start[ing] to come together into an economic community of its own" was not a "side effect" of NATO. The birth of the European Coal and Steel Community in the early 1950s was the result of the policies of both Western European leaders (in particular from France) and the U.S. government, but the NATO framework did not play a direct role and European integration was not a "side effect" of the organization and the cooperation it entailed. The Schuman government was already preparing the groundwork for the ECSC before the North Atlantic Treaty was signed, and the United States' support for European integration did not need to be communicated through NATO channels. The projects for deepened integration that were pushed by European leaders in the second half of the 1950s and then in the following decades were not "side effects" of the existence of NATO either. It can obviously be argued that NATO played its part in ensuring peace among Western states and stability on the European continent, but that's a different argument.
On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote:Since the 1990s, NATO has been... different. I'm sure we're all at least somewhat familiar with the neoconservative movement, which basically takes the perspective that the US and the American view of democracy is the One True Path and that others should be coerced into joining that circle; basically the whole "spreading democracy" shtick is this. There's also a liberal equivalent, which is more or less the same but also has a cultural/economic hegemony element to it and has a cultural objectivist viewpoint (this group is somewhat poorly defined, but I personally refer to such people by the "neoliberal" label which is imperfect, but close to what it's meant to be). Both of these viewpoints became far more mainstream after the end of the USSR and they have a large influence on the modern policy of the US and its most loyal supporters. An interesting document of neocon policy that has played a large role in modern FP was the Wolfowitz Doctrine. The long and short of it is, it's a doctrine that views the US as the one and only superpower in the world and that the US should keep it that way. To do so, the goal was simply to convince a lot of countries to abandon their ambitions of being world powers in their own right (Japan and Germany) and to prevent the rise of those who really can't be controlled (Russia and China; this made much more sense in the early 1990s). Basically it was a gigantic display of arrogance that overestimated the strength of the US in the world; there have been stronger empires in the past, they weren't ever able to do what the Wolfowitz Doctrine set out to do, and those didn't have to worry about their enemies having "nah fuck it all of you die" nukes if their existence was threatened. Nevertheless it's a very influential document that defines the US foreign policy to this day. To a large extent NATO has always been an extension of the will of the US foreign policy ambitions, and was designed that way from the beginning. [...] + Show Spoiler [Other text that I address below] + When you say "when has the US been forced into a war because of NATO?" you are missing the point. The US is the one that forces other countries into war. The 1990s saw some pretty imperialistic actions under NATO - most notably its involvement in Yugoslavia and somewhat in the Middle East, and a lot of these were simply blatant attempts to realign nations more closely with what the US would like. The years since then have been pretty similar, but Russia and China are a lot stronger than they were in that brief period of the 1990s and are much more capable of reacting and standing in the way of NATO than they were back then. The reaction of the US has been to meddle with the geopolitics of those countries by escalating conflicts that those nations have that existed, but have mostly been suppressed. Ukraine, Georgia, South China Sea, Chinese-Japanese land disputes, etc. Note that the military actions of NATO as an entity have been entirely in the post-Soviet era. However, the issue is that the US usually doesn't fight these wars itself - it uses Europe to fight those wars on its behalf. Note that Japan and the South China Sea countries in East Asia, and the EU in Europe, are the major parties that actually act to support US interests in the area - under military/economic coercion. Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to. Nevertheless, other countries get dragged into not-their-battle very easily and the NATO framework is to a large extent the means by which this occurs. The current refugee crisis is also a pretty significant not-their-battle that Europe has been dragged into, with rather substantial consequences.
Now, what about the incidental effect of the alliance, the newly found unification of Europe? Well to put it simply, it's already happened. The EU may or may not survive - the current structure involves more powerful EU nations exploiting weaker EU nations and very adamantly refusing to change - but the idea of a European economic union will almost certainly survive. The security alliance may not - frankly, most countries are not inherently aligned with US interests on international matters. Britain is (the "special relationship" is a strong cultural closeness that has been acknowledged for well over a century), but France, Germany, and most of the rest of Europe are not particularly so and often diverge from US interests. France, in fact, while being in NATO also sought to, in the event of war with the East, establish its own "separate peace" and as such developed a lot of its own military/nuclear capability. Germany is still fearful of appearing to be the Nazis again and has deliberately crippled a lot of its potential to be a powerful military nation. Turkey is... Turkey. Though they may have some willingness to comply with the FP ambitions of the US at present, a consistent divergence in FP ambitions is very apparent and if the US abuses its favorable political arrangement then it will slowly but surely degrade the viability of the alliance.
[...] So in a sense, it is very true that NATO is obsolete. Its original goal - to contain the geopolitical threat of a unified communist opposition - is not the threat it was feared to be. At present, it is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy. These two excerpts illustrate the amalgamations that are found throughout your post between neoconservatism and U.S. foreign policy on the one hand, and between U.S. foreign policy and NATO on the other hand (resulting in your final statement that NATO "is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy"). I will address the latter later on, and will comment on the former first. You are significantly overstating the influence of neoconservatism and neoconservatists on U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War.
To begin, neoconservatives did not have this kind of substantial influence on U.S. foreign policy until 2001, when several of them were recruited into the GWB administration. Before that, some second-generation neocons (among those labeled "Scoop Jackson Democrats" by Justin Vaïsse, including Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz) had played a role (some analysts argue it was significant, others less so) in parts of Reagan's foreign policy agenda, but the ideas they and third-generation neocons (Bill Kristol, Gary Schmitt, Robert Kagan, Max Boot, etc.) put forward were not the major foreign policy "persuasion" within the Republican party in the 1990s, let alone in the Clinton administration. Likewise, their writings and advocacy (within think tanks and publications such as the American Enterprise Institute, the Project for the New American Century, the Weekly Standard and others) were not a driving force behind the foreign policy decisions made by the Clinton administration (they still were somewhat influential in some policy circles and they starting laying the groundwork for their breakthrough in the GWB administration, but the voting record of Congressional Republicans with regards to Kosovo in 1999 shows that the policy prescriptions of neoconservatives did not even convince a majority of Republican lawmakers at the time). When the Clinton administration opted for intervention during the 1990s, including when NATO was involved (in the Bosnian war and in Kosovo war), it was not because of the influence of neoconservatives or neoconservative thinking (worth noting as well is that neoconservatives were not always united on those issues -- Fukuyama and Krauthammer did not support U.S. involvement in Bosnia, for example, although most neoconservatives policymakers were in favor of intervening - see Hamza Karčić's "US Neoconservative Support and Policy Activism for Bosnia, 1992–1995: Correcting the Record", Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs, Vol. 35, No. 3, 2015, pp. 344-358). I suggest reading Maria Ryan's Neoconservatism and the New American Century (2010) if you're interested in learning more about the limited influence of neocons during that period.
Even after 2001, however, one should not overemphasize the influence of neoconservatives either -- while the role they played in the decision to invade Iraq is probably what they're the most famous for (other factors which led to the invasion also have to be taken into account, though), it has to be remembered that they had allies in more senior officials who were not necessarily neoconservatives per se but who shared some of the neocons' policy prescriptions (such as Rumsfeld and Cheney for invading Iraq). This is also when key elements of the "Wolfowitz doctrine" that you referenced were included in the 2002 National Security Strategy -- in 1992, several of those elements had faced public (and private -- many senior officials of the GHWB administration rejected key parts of that Defense Planning Guidance draft) rebuke. After 2006 and during GWB's second mandate, however, neocons were sidelined to an extent in the administration, and their more immediate influence on policy decreased substantially. They have not been in important positions of power and have not seen their ideas grain traction either within the Obama administration, which they have criticized at length except on some occasions (they supported the 2009 surge in Afghanistan, for example). Of course, neoconservatives still remain an important current in U.S. foreign policy debates, next to realists and liberals in particular. Some of the policy decisions they participated in during GWB's first mandate have effects to this day (for example through path dependency dynamics). Many are still very much active as scholars, whether in academia or in think tanks, and they do retain a significant influence within the Republican party (in particular with regards to their interventionist stances -- see Justin Vaïsse's "Why Neoconservatism Still Matters", Brookings Policy Paper, No. 20, 2010). Yet as I've explained, they remain only one current among others, and they certainly do not hold the reins to current US foreign policy making -- overall, the picture you're painting of neoconservatism as the essential embodiment of U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War is extremely inaccurate. If you would like to understand neoconservatism better, I recommend reading Daniel Cooper's Neoconservatism and American Foreign Policy: A Critical Analysis (2011) and Justin Vaïsse's Neoconservatism: The Biography of a Movement (2010).
You do mention a "liberal equivalent" as well, using a pretty convoluted description and a label (neoliberalism) that is not particularly used compared to others such as "liberal interventionism". You gloss over significant distinctions between liberal interventionism and neoconservatism, however, and you also fail to appreciate that the liberal tent is heterogeneous -- liberal influence on U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War has not only included the ideas favored by "hawks". Obama's two mandates are a good example -- despite the Libyan intervention and the promotion of Samantha Power and Susan Rice (both seen by many as "liberal interventionists") within the ranks of the administration in 2013, Obama's foreign policy has combined elements of realism and different strands of liberalism. Among the differences between liberal interventionism and neoconservatism, I'll start by pointing out that one of the four or five pillars of neoconservatism is the importance granted to the military within the foreign policy spectrum of instruments -- neocons support keeping the defense budget high or increasing it, as well as using military force to achieve foreign policy goals. Liberal interventionists tend to be more prudent when it comes to the use of force, although they obviously can support it in given situations. Neoconservatives are more likely to support regime change, believing democracy has to be pushed abroad. Liberal interventionists, while they do welcome new democratic states, tend to focus more on interventions to prevent humanitarian crises. I won't expand on the neocon focus on maintaining unipolarity by actively preventing the rise of other powers, which isn't directly found among liberals. More importantly in the context of this discussion (see two paragraphs below), liberals emphasize the importance of international organizations and institutions, and the necessity to defend and uphold them as much as possible, while to a considerable extent neoconservatives see international organizations with much more circumspection. Indeed, international organizations and institutions are to be supported only as long as they directly serve US foreign policy objectives, but to be put aside if they constrain the US' freedom of action in pursuit of its national interest.
Let's be clear here: US foreign policy from the end of the Cold War to present times, and US policy with regards to NATO, can hardly be reduced to neoconservatism and liberal interventionism (in addition, the two currents are obviously big tents themselves). I covered the influence of neoconservatism; concerns dear to liberal interventionists did play a role in several decisions to intervene militarily abroad during that period, but they were usually not the sole (or the primary) reasons behind those decisions (for example, with Kosovo, in addition to a desire to do something about the humanitarian crisis unfolding, one has to take into account, among other reasons for intervening, the Clinton administration's perception that NATO would lose credibility if it failed to act). Failing to recognize the vast spectra of ideas, positions, actors and influences behind U.S. foreign policy, not only in addition to neoconservatism and liberalism but even within the liberal tent itself, leads you to present only a shallow and misleading caricature of U.S. foreign policy -- exactly like when you argue that the Wolfowitz doctrine has "defined" US foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. The same is true when you write "There are plenty of neoconservative Democrats as well. Hillary Clinton for example". Unless "neoconservatism" loses all meaning and is now defined as "being more willing to use military force than Obama", Hillary Clinton is not a neoconservative. The fact that prominent neoconservatives have supported her over Trump does not make her a neoconservative (FP experts from virtually all backgrounds support her over him), and the fact that she has in the past supported some interventions that neoconservatives happened to also support does not make her a neoconservative either. To be sure, some neocons hope that she will be more receptive to their policy prescriptions than Obama has been, but the label "neocon" still simply does not match the reality of her past positions on matters of foreign policy and of her tenure as Secretary of State. As to how she will act as president, some analysts think it is not likely that she'll be the kind of liberal hawk that others have described her as, but this is obviously speculation.
This brings me to another issue with the paragraphs I quoted above, found also in particular in the following two paragraphs (which I put in spoiler tags previously):
+ Show Spoiler [Two paragraphs which were spoilered] +On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: To a large extent NATO has always been an extension of the will of the US foreign policy ambitions, and was designed that way from the beginning. When you say "when has the US been forced into a war because of NATO?" you are missing the point. The US is the one that forces other countries into war. The 1990s saw some pretty imperialistic actions under NATO - most notably its involvement in Yugoslavia and somewhat in the Middle East, and a lot of these were simply blatant attempts to realign nations more closely with what the US would like. The years since then have been pretty similar, but Russia and China are a lot stronger than they were in that brief period of the 1990s and are much more capable of reacting and standing in the way of NATO than they were back then. The reaction of the US has been to meddle with the geopolitics of those countries by escalating conflicts that those nations have that existed, but have mostly been suppressed. Ukraine, Georgia, South China Sea, Chinese-Japanese land disputes, etc. Note that the military actions of NATO as an entity have been entirely in the post-Soviet era. However, the issue is that the US usually doesn't fight these wars itself - it uses Europe to fight those wars on its behalf. Note that Japan and the South China Sea countries in East Asia, and the EU in Europe, are the major parties that actually act to support US interests in the area - under military/economic coercion. Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to. Nevertheless, other countries get dragged into not-their-battle very easily and the NATO framework is to a large extent the means by which this occurs. The current refugee crisis is also a pretty significant not-their-battle that Europe has been dragged into, with rather substantial consequences.
Now, what about the incidental effect of the alliance, the newly found unification of Europe? Well to put it simply, it's already happened. The EU may or may not survive - the current structure involves more powerful EU nations exploiting weaker EU nations and very adamantly refusing to change - but the idea of a European economic union will almost certainly survive. The security alliance may not - frankly, most countries are not inherently aligned with US interests on international matters. Britain is (the "special relationship" is a strong cultural closeness that has been acknowledged for well over a century), but France, Germany, and most of the rest of Europe are not particularly so and often diverge from US interests. France, in fact, while being in NATO also sought to, in the event of war with the East, establish its own "separate peace" and as such developed a lot of its own military/nuclear capability. Germany is still fearful of appearing to be the Nazis again and has deliberately crippled a lot of its potential to be a powerful military nation. Turkey is... Turkey. Though they may have some willingness to comply with the FP ambitions of the US at present, a consistent divergence in FP ambitions is very apparent and if the US abuses its favorable political arrangement then it will slowly but surely degrade the viability of the alliance.
So in a sense, it is very true that NATO is obsolete. Its original goal - to contain the geopolitical threat of a unified communist opposition - is not the threat it was feared to be. At present, it is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy.
Indeed, you are also indirectly misrepresenting to an extent the position of neoconservatives on NATO. In the 1990s and the early 2000s, neoconservatives lobbied for the expansion of NATO through groups like the New Atlantic Initiative (some) and the U.S. Committee on NATO (many). Yet neoconservatives do not support NATO because it is a way to "drag other countries into not-their-war". They support NATO's existence because it helps cement American primacy in Europe (expanding NATO was in this perspective seen as a way to prevent the newcomers in the alliance from falling back within Russia's sphere of influence and perhaps abandon democracy -- note that neoconservatives were not the only ones to adopt this line of thinking, though). and because it serves a purpose with regards to the political legitimization of certain actions taken in the pursuit of U.S. foreign policy objectives, the expansion being therefore useful regarding the political support US actions may receive from Central and Eastern European countries. In this perspective, NATO is much more useful on the political level than on the military level -- when it comes to the kind of military interventions you're referring to, neoconservatives are much more at ease with going to war with ad hoc "coalitions of the willing" that are not as constraining as NATO (see for example how neoconservatives (and others) criticized the NATO "war by committee" in the case of Kosovo -- see Stewart Patrick's "The Mission Determines the Coalition”: The United States and Multilateral Cooperation after 9/11" in Bruce Jones et al. (2010), Cooperating for Peace and Security : Evolving Institutions and Arrangements in a Context of Changing U. S. Security Policy). NATO is simply not the kind of vehicle for "neoconservative foreign policy" that you're describing.
Let's proceed by examining further the first of the two paragraphs I just quoted.
On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: To a large extent NATO has always been an extension of the will of the US foreign policy ambitions, and was designed that way from the beginning. When you say "when has the US been forced into a war because of NATO?" you are missing the point. The US is the one that forces other countries into war. The 1990s saw some pretty imperialistic actions under NATO - most notably its involvement in Yugoslavia and somewhat in the Middle East, and a lot of these were simply blatant attempts to realign nations more closely with what the US would like. The years since then have been pretty similar, but Russia and China are a lot stronger than they were in that brief period of the 1990s and are much more capable of reacting and standing in the way of NATO than they were back then. The reaction of the US has been to meddle with the geopolitics of those countries by escalating conflicts that those nations have that existed, but have mostly been suppressed. Ukraine, Georgia, South China Sea, Chinese-Japanese land disputes, etc. Note that the military actions of NATO as an entity have been entirely in the post-Soviet era. However, the issue is that the US usually doesn't fight these wars itself - it uses Europe to fight those wars on its behalf. Note that Japan and the South China Sea countries in East Asia, and the EU in Europe, are the major parties that actually act to support US interests in the area - under military/economic coercion. Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to. Nevertheless, other countries get dragged into not-their-battle very easily and the NATO framework is to a large extent the means by which this occurs. The current refugee crisis is also a pretty significant not-their-battle that Europe has been dragged into, with rather substantial consequences. This paragraph contains several assertions that range from oversimplifications to complete distortions of reality. I won't delve into your use of "imperialistic" -- I find it analytically unhelpful and misleading, in particular when it comes to US involvement in the Bosnian war, but let's focus on the facts. First, can you tell me which "imperialistic" NATO actions in the Middle East in the 1990s you're referring to? The only two NATO missions in the region that I can think of are Operation Anchor Guard and Operation Ace Guard, through which some relatively minor NATO assets were sent to Turkey preventively in 1990-1991 in light of the possible threat posed by Iraq at Turkey's southern border after Saddam Hussein's invasion of Koweit. Next, your claim that it is the U.S. that started escalating conflicts that had "mostly been suppressed" in Ukraine, Georgia, the South China sea, and with regards to "Chinese-Japanese land disputes" is grossly inaccurate, especially since you're saying that the US-aligned parties are acting "under coercion".
In Ukraine, although the U.S. supported the opposition which ousted Yanukovych, and although previously the Bush administration wanted Ukraine to join NATO (and in general the U.S. wanted Ukraine to open itself further to the West), it is nevertheless first and foremost the domestic opposition to Yanukovych that initiated the events of 2013-2014, and it is Russia that decided to use military force to invade the country. Erasing these actors' agency and the role they played in the escalation of the situation paints a very misleading picture of what happened. In Georgia, the Bush administration did train parts of the Georgian military and pushed for the country to join NATO, but it is still the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, who wanted and decided to use military force to bring Abkhazia and South Ossetia back under Georgian control, despite (perhaps too timid) warnings from U.S. officials -- and it is Russia that chose to respond with military force as well. Of course, in both cases, understanding how things got to where they are does require taking into account how the U.S. pushed to get both Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, and in general tried to draw them towards the West. Yet ignoring everything else to state that it is the U.S. that escalated suppressed conflicts is simply not accurate. As a side note, I'd like to add that one has to keep in mind that Ukraine and Georgia are sovereign states, and that the fact that Russia wants them to stay in its sphere of influence should not simply be taken as the legitimate baseline. Russia responding with military force to states slipping out of its sphere of influence through sovereign decisions makes Russia the party most responsible for escalation due to its own ambitions.
In the South China sea, tensions have grown and escalated due to China's increasingly assertive claims to territories and waters. That the U.S. took a firmer position on the matter under Obama doesn't change the fact that the tensions were not dormant or "suppressed" but already increasing, and that it is China who is trying to change the status quo and who is escalating the dispute -- the U.S. is reacting to the developments, not instigating them, and it is privately trying to an extent to ease up tensions. Finally, blaming the U.S. for escalation in the Senkaku Islands dispute is nonsense. It is both Japan and China that recently took steps that led to increased tensions, and the U.S. has reacted by reaffirming its treaty commitment to the defense of Japan, and by continuing to fly its military planes normally in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone despite the introduction in 2013 by China of restrictions on air traffic in the area. Again, pretending here that it is the U.S. that is escalating suppressed conflicts is simply not true.
The final part of your paragraph in which you develop your claim that the U.S. is militarily/economically coercing European and Asian states into fighting the wars and fights of the US through NATO is even more divorced from reality. With regards to the situation in Asia, several Asian states have been hostile to Chinese ambitions in the South China sea for years, and they rallied behind the U.S. when it took a firmer stance -- not because the U.S. forced them to, but precisely because they saw the development as an opportunity to stand up to China (which had been pushing for bilateral discussions with each state) more easily. I'm also not sure of how you picture the role of the NATO framework with regards to the situation there. When it comes to European states participating in NATO interventions in and around Europe, your assertion is misguided as well.
Let's begin with NATO's Operation Deliberate Force in 1995 in the Bosnian war. Your comment about European states fighting on the US' behalf, while the latter doesn't fight, is false -- the U.S. provided by far the most important share of the aircraft and resources used in the operation (see for example chapters 8 & 9 in particular in Col Robert C. Owen's (ed.) Deliberate Force - A Case Study in Effective Air Campaigning (2000) -- after the Dayton Accords, though, European states did send most of the NATO troops in the peacekeeping missions IFOR and SFOR in the area, but that was after the operation and not to engage in fighting). There was no use of military/economic coercion by the U.S. on its European allies either -- in fact, until the summer of 1995, the U.S. and Western European states had substantial disagreements and different positions on how to proceed in Bosnia with regards to the role of UN peacekeepers, to NATO involvement, and to the use of force by NATO. Only after the Srebrenica massacre, the London Conference of July 1995 and the following diplomatic efforts by U.S. representatives, did European leaders rally behind both the new plan put forward by the U.S. to get the parties in the conflict to reach a peace settlement (a plan that was welcomed by European leaders, who reacted positively to the new American leadership on the issue), and the military options and triggering mechanisms that the U.S. favored. Of course, some divergences remained, including during ODF itself, but the Europeans did not get behind the U.S. and participate in the NATO operation due to "military/economic coercion" at all. See for example, for the American perspective, Derek Chollet, The Road to the Dayton Accords -- A study of American Statecraft (2005), in particular chapter 2. Here are a few relevant scans:
+ Show Spoiler [p. 43] + + Show Spoiler [p. 44] + + Show Spoiler [p. 45] +
I'll quickly quote here another post of yours:
On October 02 2016 09:26 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2016 03:27 Sermokala wrote: Calling the prevention of a large scale genocide in yugoslavia as an imperialist action is pretty stupid. Europe didn't want to get their hands dirty in the most obvious post cold war problem they could solve so America had to stop the war before it really kicked off.
The rest of that I pretty much agree with, nato has become a way for the us to cover for europes lack of military in exchange for increased Us influence on the world. As much as euroes like to parrot around about being free from US influence they only have a choice between the US and Russia. One will cut off their natural gas in the middle of winter and watch your people freeze to death while blaming you for it. Yugoslavia was a mess of a country whose demise was quite likely. As with quite a few Eastern European countries, there was quite a bit of ethnic strife that made it quite hard to exist as a single country. Part of the reason the USSR even had such a substantial security apparatus was that there were quite a few conflicts within an unstable part of the world (though that apparatus did have a number of key weaknesses of note since it was established in a less sane and more paranoid environment). However, it is also true that NATO, in Yugoslavia as in multiple other countries in their operating zones, pushed to escalate those conflicts into civil war and to end those civil wars on terms more favorable to parties that were pro-Western. [...] I've already addressed other elements of this paragraph above, but that claim that "NATO [...] pushed to escalate [...] into civil war" the situation in the Balkans in the early 1990s is, to put it mildly, utterly false and unfounded. The document you linked to in your follow-up post does not support the assertion at all. That claim is pure deceptive anti-NATO propaganda.
Let's now move to the NATO involvement of 1999 in the Kosovo war. Here as well, the U.S. was by far the most important contributor of military assets and resources to the operation (for example by deploying 700 of the 1055 total aircraft) -- see notably chapter two of the RAND study by John E. Peters et al. (eds), European Contributions to Operation Allied Force (2001). The authors point out that "although alliance and U.S. press releases during the operation recognized the contributions of all participating air forces, the truth was that the United States was shouldering a disproportionately large share of the effort" (p. 52). I'll mention here that the decision to proceed through NATO instead of using military force unilaterally was among other reasons based on the fact that the U.S.' European allies had troops on the ground in Bosnia which would potentially be facing retaliation. With regards to the NATO air campaign itself, the U.S. managed to get the Europeans on board through diplomacy, accommodating some of their demands and assuaging some of their concerns with regards to the possible use of force against Milosevic. Your claim that this was the result of "military/economic pressure" applied by the U.S. is therefore again wrong. See for example Ivo H. Daalder and Michael E. O'Hanlon's Winning ugly : NATO’s war to save Kosovo (2001). Here are a few relevant scans:
+ Show Spoiler [p. 72] + + Show Spoiler [p. 73] + + Show Spoiler [p. 74] + + Show Spoiler [p. 75] +
I'll add that one of the reasons European leaders decided to move forward with building the EU's Common Security and Defence Policy (formerly known as the ESDP) towards the end of the 1990s is precisely their frustration over their own inability to solve the crises in their own backyard without the U.S. intervening and leading the effort.
This brings me to the third example of a major NATO intervention in the European area/neighborhood: the organization's involvement in the Libyan civil war. With regards to the burden-sharing among NATO members during the intervention, other NATO members (France in particular) shouldered a larger share of the military effort than in the previous two examples, yet the participation of the U.S. was still vital to the operation and the Americans were responsible for the largest percentage of troops & personnel involved (50,5%), of aircraft deployed (38,2%) and of sorties (29,5%), in addition to other contributions. Yet even this larger role of other NATO members doesn't support your assertion, considering that the U.S. did not coerce those states into intervening, or try to to get them to fight its war, at all -- in fact, it is largely France (Sarkozy) that spearheaded the push to intervene, and the U.S. that joined France and the UK in supporting military involvement (within the Obama administration, Rice and Power supported intervening, and they were eventually joined by Clinton). See for example Jeffrey H. Michaels' "Able but not willing -- A critical assessment of NATO’s Libya intervention", in Kjell Engelbrekt et al. (eds.), The NATO Intervention in Libya -- Lessons learned from the campaign (2014), pp. 20-22. In addition, NATO members that opposed/did not want to contribute to the operation (such as Germany and Poland) were not forced to do so at all.
All of this is obviously not to say that the U.S. never tries to apply political pressure on its allies, but your claim simply does not resist scrutiny (and the same is true regarding NATO members' contributions to ISAF, by the way).
I'd like to add that your sentence "Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to" reveals a deeply flawed understanding of how discussions and negotiations work (and pressure is sometimes exerted) within/around NATO. I'm curious to see with which examples you'd substantiate that comment.
On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: Now, what about the incidental effect of the alliance, the newly found unification of Europe? Well to put it simply, it's already happened. The EU may or may not survive - the current structure involves more powerful EU nations exploiting weaker EU nations and very adamantly refusing to change - but the idea of a European economic union will almost certainly survive. The security alliance may not - frankly, most countries are not inherently aligned with US interests on international matters. Britain is (the "special relationship" is a strong cultural closeness that has been acknowledged for well over a century), but France, Germany, and most of the rest of Europe are not particularly so and often diverge from US interests. France, in fact, while being in NATO also sought to, in the event of war with the East, establish its own "separate peace" and as such developed a lot of its own military/nuclear capability. Germany is still fearful of appearing to be the Nazis again and has deliberately crippled a lot of its potential to be a powerful military nation. Turkey is... Turkey. Though they may have some willingness to comply with the FP ambitions of the US at present, a consistent divergence in FP ambitions is very apparent and if the US abuses its favorable political arrangement then it will slowly but surely degrade the viability of the alliance. I won't repeat what I wrote in the beginning of my post with regards to the birth of the EU, but this is honestly a collection of clichés and superficial comments on the state and evolution of relations between European states and the US in matters of foreign policy and NATO cooperation. For example, it ignores France's gradual turn towards NATO in recent years (including since it rejoined NATO's integrated military command structures in 2009), notably with respect to how the organization is viewed among both civilian and military officials (the evolution has been fueled recently to a substantial extent by French disillusion with regards to the CSDP, in particular since its intervention in Mali -- as a side note, the effects of the Brexit on the CSDP will be interesting to follow when it comes to the position of France on the CSDP's potential), and it oversimplifies matters with respect to "national interests" and how they align or not (in particular regarding the UK-US relationship).
On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: So in a sense, it is very true that NATO is obsolete. Its original goal - to contain the geopolitical threat of a unified communist opposition - is not the threat it was feared to be. At present, it is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy. It's a very short-sighted approach that will undermine the existence of an alliance which, given valid cooperation with Russia, China, non-member allies, etc., can be very effective as a means to fight terrorism and enforce non-proliferation. Terrorism is an obvious threat, not just because people die in terrorist attacks but because the existence of terrorism strongly destabilizes the region where the terrorists operate, and nuclear proliferation just increases the danger that stupid countries without good nuclear policy start a nuclear war. Terrorism really does require international cooperation; if one side fights the terrorists but some other side supplies them, then the terrorists usually win one way or another. Non-proliferation also requires rather unified cooperation because the best way to convince a nation to abandon nuclear ambitions seems to be to show them that the rest of the world isn't really willing to offer them the means to do so.
So, after all that, let's get back to Trump. He did make the very valid observation that NATO in its current form is obsolete. It's a rare observation and not one made by many politicians, or any mainstream ones at all for that matter. It's so strongly against the current established system that it's generally political suicide to push for that position. To a large extent, having a strong military is a very good thing - the military is very good at pushing some genuinely valuable technological innovation, and also paves the way for a lot of very useful economic developments (e.g. Silicon Valley started from a very substantial military investment, the current Russian IT boom is very military-derivative). The problem, however, is that in the wrong hands, more military means more war. This is the entire idea of "beware of the military-industrial complex" which is just the observation that while the military is a good thing, it's often tied to more war. The idea that NATO in its current form is "obsolete" is nonsensical and ignorant (and recognizing this does not even require supporting the existence of the organization). You seem to be unaware of the evolution NATO has gone through since the end of the Cold War, and of the multiple purposes served, and programs implemented by, the organization.
First, although the Soviet Union no longer exists, NATO remains a fundamental deterrent against any armed aggression against one of its member states, and any menace to their territorial integrity. This also makes it that much more difficult for non-member states to effectively use the (veiled or not) threat of armed aggression against any NATO member state to influence its policies. With regards to Russia, while current tensions have not reached some of the levels that characterized much of the Cold War, Eastern European states that are part of NATO are still more than supportive of the existence of the alliance and of its charter's article V. Deterrence against armed aggression remains relevant today. In addition, the nuclear umbrella provided by NATO member states with nuclear capabilities (the U.S. in particular) means that non-nuclear member states benefit from nuclear deterrence without having to acquire nuclear weapons themselves. I'll mention here that NATO has also been active in the development of a ballistic missile defense program to protect Europe.
With regards to the two topics you mention, nuclear non-proliferation and terrorism, NATO is already active on both fronts. The organization cooperates with both individual states and international organizations (such as the EU, through its IcSP and INSC instruments in particular) to avoid the spread of WMDs, and monitor and secure existing weapons and materials. With respect to terrorism, the organization facilitates intelligence-sharing and shared assessments, and contributes to the strategic analysis of threats. It was obviously directly involved in counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency efforts on the ground through ISAF, and provides counter-terrorism expertise to member states and partner countries. It also facilitates the allocation and deployment of capabilities to actively combat terrorist groups. In short, it is already doing what you said it should be doing (except if I'm not mistaken you'd like Russia and others to be directly involved).
To pick up on what I just mentioned, the NATO framework is obviously very useful in facilitating the rapid multilateral deployment of military forces both within the borders of its member states and beyond them (in this respect, the organization has evolved since the end of the Cold War and has devoted a large part of its operational focus on deployment beyond its initial geographical scope), thanks to the numerous benefits it brings at all levels and stages of troop mobilization and deployment. The alliance is in addition of particular value with regards to the issue of interoperability between the armed forces of its member states. The application and adoption of NATO standards, and the development of equipment interoperability, has been and continues to be of enormous importance to facilitate how the military assets of member states can function together. This is true as well of the NATO education, training, exercises, and evaluation programs designed to ensure that the armed forces of member states are capable of cooperating effectively and engaging militarily together.
NATO is also very active in developing capabilities and coordinating efforts in the area of cyber defense, and it is working with partner states and international organizations at different levels in relation to the issue. Other missions and areas of activity include anti-piracy efforts (in particular around Somalia), the monitoring of important energy supply flows, recent initiatives pertaining to the role of women in peace and security efforts, scientific research activities in various domains, and plenty of other activities that I'm not going to be able to list here. As I mentioned above, NATO also engages in partnerships, dialogues, and in cooperation in general with various non-member states and international organizations, sometimes through institutionalized structures. It allows the U.S. and member states to make use of this security & defense network of cooperation when relevant in their exchanges with those non-NATO actors. NATO can also provide expertise and guidance to prospective members or interested states when it comes to institutional frameworks and practices pertaining to civil-military relations (in order to help those states cement a civilian control of their military) or other similar issues, as well as regarding practices in civil emergency planning and the consolidation of "civil preparedness".
It's impossible to be exhaustive here, so I'll limit myself to these few examples, but the bottom line is that NATO has been and continues to be extremely valuable to its member states in various domains related to security, defense and foreign policy. NATO continues to serve their security interests in many respects, and it is therefore not obsolete at all (and this is again not to say that there cannot be legitimate criticism of, or debate over, the functioning, programs, or actions/interventions of the organization). And while cooperation and partnerships with non-NATO members are encouraged as I mentioned, NATO cannot be expected to completely ignore the tensions that exist with some states such as Russia, given Russia's behavior in recent years in Ukraine, given the state of the relations between several NATO member states and Russia, and given the fears shared by some in NATO, in particular among Eastern European states, over possible future destabilization efforts by Russia on the latter's periphery.
On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: Unfortunately, Trump went after a rather minor issue: other countries "taking advantage" of the US in their nations. Yes, it is true that the US does a lot of the military heavy lifting for many nations, but this is by design. Yes, there are some nations that get more than they put into NATO, not in security but simply in the form of monetary infusion from servicing American military personnel within their country. But a lot of the US "heavy lifting" is by design, and the US is wealthy enough that it's really not economically painful for it to keep up its military involvement as it is now. The arguments against this point are easy to make because he's wrong about how to go about reducing NATO. Still, he does deserve credit for being one of the only people to acknowledge that the current framework of NATO is wrong and it needs to reform.
Maybe Trump will pave the way for a more level-headed politician to address the proper issues, or maybe he will undermine the entire idea of reforming NATO based on more realistic goals. The risk of not doing so is to lead countries away from the current security structure into one that is more dangerous for the world - while there is absolutely a lot of benefit to a multipolar world (a unipolar power is a dangerous exercise in arrogance), there really is a lot of benefit in preventing every strong nation from clashing over political interests and for that there needs to be a framework for encouraging cooperation, and Trump's plan would undermine that. The risk is that Trump might undermine the entire idea of reforming NATO by association with stupidity. It's always hard to know how things like this will play out - historically, both have happened. Personally I think that Trump's position really lets people know that there is a strong underlying sentiment that NATO needs reforming, and that some politicians will be able to push for that in a more realistic manner, so I do give credit to Trump for acknowledging issues of importance. NATO has been evolving and going through reforms since the end of the Cold War. The recent Wales and Warsaw summits, for example, marked shifts in focus from those that came before them. NATO isn't supposed to be a worldwide forum to foster cooperation between every state, it is a military/security alliance. You seem to be misunderstanding what that implies and the kind of cooperation that it allows for, precisely because it is not some kind of OSCE (or UN) variant. NATO member states are not being "led away" from it -- it is rather the opposite that has been true in the last few years, and some partnerships are actually getting stronger (with Sweden and Finland, for example). Also, the existence of NATO is saving the U.S. a lot of money in different ways, and Trump doesn't know anything about NATO.
*** To sum up, your post contains a substantial number of inaccuracies, distortions, and outright fabrications about NATO, its history, its past interventions, and its current state. Your comments on the influences behind U.S. foreign policy rest to a significant extent on caricatures and misleading generalizations. To be sure, there are plenty of legitimate debates that have been and continue to be had since the end of the Cold War over the continued existence of NATO, over its expansion, over some of the interventions it has conducted, over the challenges it faces (for example regarding the state of the armed forces of its European members -- both separately and collectively), etc. Yet for those debates to be fruitful, they require at least an understanding of what NATO currently does, how it works, and what it has done in the past. I'm not saying you're being purposely disingenuous when you're accusing NATO of being simultaneously "obsolete" and "to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy", but at the very least your post betrays both a heavy bias and a fundamental lack of understanding of the subject matter. And that's unfortunate, especially considering the very rude comment that you recently addressed to Plansix. If you would like to examine these issues further, however, I can send you some additional references, as well as electronic copies of a few of the sources that I cited in this post.
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Saving that post so I can educate myself some day. Wow.
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This election reminds me of that lawsuit where a sleezeball* walked off with a $5 million 'malicious defamation' judgment because he said the defendant lied about everything relevant when the defendant didn't show up. You know he probably doesn't deserve the award, but at the same time, the law's clear on what should happen when one side doesn't bother to show up for a hearing.
At this point, I hope Clinton gets elected because she's more likely to be impeached before taking office.
*The sleazeball in this case was Donald Trump.
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+ Show Spoiler +On November 01 2016 00:44 kwizach wrote:Alright, this reply to LegalLord's very flawed post on NATO is going to be a long one (I hadn't found the time to comment properly before today). Read on if you're interested in NATO & U.S. foreign policy. *** + Show Spoiler [Pretty long post by LegalLord on NATO] +On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2016 07:12 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 07:04 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 07:03 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 06:53 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:46 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 06:40 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:37 Plansix wrote:On October 01 2016 06:34 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:28 LegalLord wrote: [quote] If NATO is used as a means to start wars and get people dragged into not-their-war as it sometimes does, the alliance will break apart. Not in a year, probably not in a decade, but well within our lifetimes. Instead, it should reconfigure itself to focus more on genuinely important matters like fighting terrorism (for real, not just to oust leaders they don't like under the guise of anti-terrorism) and non-proliferation. Remind me, what was the one time NATO was used to drag people into war? And what was that war about? Are you saying that it has fucked over the EU more time than it has fucked over the US? Well, that and the only times any of the war articles were invoked were about terrorist groups and Middle Eastern wars. Of course, that factoid is about as relevant as the fact that the US has not declared war since WWII. Technically true, but also fully missing the point that it really is just a technicality because official application of the legal statutes is much more significant than just their "informal" use. Well, okay? But I don't see what that has to do with NATO now. I mean, France said fuck off when you tried to drag them into Iraq. Sure, you gave them the stink-eye for it, but they're still in NATO. Coercion comes in more forms than just legal mandate. Right, so which wars were the US dragged into by coercion? I'll give a better response in a few hours. On the road right now. Guuuh. What a miserable day of travel. Anyways, let's start with a very brief history of NATO. In the aftermath of WWII, most of Europe was pretty badly war-torn, but the US was quite well off - it managed to avoid battle in its own country by virtue of being two oceans away from the battlefield. Germany had fought its second gigantic war in a very short period of time and the country was split into four because people feared a third German war. The US also had the Marshall Plan and other initiatives meant to foster the reconstruction of Europe, but of course reconstructed in such a way that it benefited the US and its FP alignment. NATO also came out of this period. After China became communist and the Korean War was fought, there was a genuine threat in the form of a Chinese-Soviet alliance, which could very well become a threat that could outdo the US. So NATO reunited West Germany into one country (because Germany is a strong ally, despite its danger) and became focused on deterrence of communism. Obviously it's a partisan geopolitical goal but that's fine; countries have those. A rather positive side effect of that alliance was that Europe started to come together into an economic community of its own, which took many forms but has since coalesced into the European Union. The reasons for NATO's existence have mostly faded. The Warsaw Pact / USSR alliance collapsed, and while it is likely that Russia will eventually recover a lot of the strength that the alliance had, the bigger reason that Russia and China really aren't allies and never were. They will work together if it's a geopolitical necessity but they really aren't fundamentally compatible on an ideological level. USSR and China were enemies as much allies a lot of the time. They were both nominally communist but the reality was that they were far from the same kind of communism. The possibility of a Chinese invasion of Siberia was well-explored and considered to be a realistic threat that needed to be addressed in Russia. Since the 1990s, NATO has been... different. I'm sure we're all at least somewhat familiar with the neoconservative movement, which basically takes the perspective that the US and the American view of democracy is the One True Path and that others should be coerced into joining that circle; basically the whole "spreading democracy" shtick is this. There's also a liberal equivalent, which is more or less the same but also has a cultural/economic hegemony element to it and has a cultural objectivist viewpoint (this group is somewhat poorly defined, but I personally refer to such people by the "neoliberal" label which is imperfect, but close to what it's meant to be). Both of these viewpoints became far more mainstream after the end of the USSR and they have a large influence on the modern policy of the US and its most loyal supporters. An interesting document of neocon policy that has played a large role in modern FP was the Wolfowitz Doctrine. The long and short of it is, it's a doctrine that views the US as the one and only superpower in the world and that the US should keep it that way. To do so, the goal was simply to convince a lot of countries to abandon their ambitions of being world powers in their own right (Japan and Germany) and to prevent the rise of those who really can't be controlled (Russia and China; this made much more sense in the early 1990s). Basically it was a gigantic display of arrogance that overestimated the strength of the US in the world; there have been stronger empires in the past, they weren't ever able to do what the Wolfowitz Doctrine set out to do, and those didn't have to worry about their enemies having "nah fuck it all of you die" nukes if their existence was threatened. Nevertheless it's a very influential document that defines the US foreign policy to this day. To a large extent NATO has always been an extension of the will of the US foreign policy ambitions, and was designed that way from the beginning. When you say "when has the US been forced into a war because of NATO?" you are missing the point. The US is the one that forces other countries into war. The 1990s saw some pretty imperialistic actions under NATO - most notably its involvement in Yugoslavia and somewhat in the Middle East, and a lot of these were simply blatant attempts to realign nations more closely with what the US would like. The years since then have been pretty similar, but Russia and China are a lot stronger than they were in that brief period of the 1990s and are much more capable of reacting and standing in the way of NATO than they were back then. The reaction of the US has been to meddle with the geopolitics of those countries by escalating conflicts that those nations have that existed, but have mostly been suppressed. Ukraine, Georgia, South China Sea, Chinese-Japanese land disputes, etc. Note that the military actions of NATO as an entity have been entirely in the post-Soviet era. However, the issue is that the US usually doesn't fight these wars itself - it uses Europe to fight those wars on its behalf. Note that Japan and the South China Sea countries in East Asia, and the EU in Europe, are the major parties that actually act to support US interests in the area - under military/economic coercion. Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to. Nevertheless, other countries get dragged into not-their-battle very easily and the NATO framework is to a large extent the means by which this occurs. The current refugee crisis is also a pretty significant not-their-battle that Europe has been dragged into, with rather substantial consequences. Now, what about the incidental effect of the alliance, the newly found unification of Europe? Well to put it simply, it's already happened. The EU may or may not survive - the current structure involves more powerful EU nations exploiting weaker EU nations and very adamantly refusing to change - but the idea of a European economic union will almost certainly survive. The security alliance may not - frankly, most countries are not inherently aligned with US interests on international matters. Britain is (the "special relationship" is a strong cultural closeness that has been acknowledged for well over a century), but France, Germany, and most of the rest of Europe are not particularly so and often diverge from US interests. France, in fact, while being in NATO also sought to, in the event of war with the East, establish its own "separate peace" and as such developed a lot of its own military/nuclear capability. Germany is still fearful of appearing to be the Nazis again and has deliberately crippled a lot of its potential to be a powerful military nation. Turkey is... Turkey. Though they may have some willingness to comply with the FP ambitions of the US at present, a consistent divergence in FP ambitions is very apparent and if the US abuses its favorable political arrangement then it will slowly but surely degrade the viability of the alliance. So in a sense, it is very true that NATO is obsolete. Its original goal - to contain the geopolitical threat of a unified communist opposition - is not the threat it was feared to be. At present, it is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy. It's a very short-sighted approach that will undermine the existence of an alliance which, given valid cooperation with Russia, China, non-member allies, etc., can be very effective as a means to fight terrorism and enforce non-proliferation. Terrorism is an obvious threat, not just because people die in terrorist attacks but because the existence of terrorism strongly destabilizes the region where the terrorists operate, and nuclear proliferation just increases the danger that stupid countries without good nuclear policy start a nuclear war. Terrorism really does require international cooperation; if one side fights the terrorists but some other side supplies them, then the terrorists usually win one way or another. Non-proliferation also requires rather unified cooperation because the best way to convince a nation to abandon nuclear ambitions seems to be to show them that the rest of the world isn't really willing to offer them the means to do so. So, after all that, let's get back to Trump. He did make the very valid observation that NATO in its current form is obsolete. It's a rare observation and not one made by many politicians, or any mainstream ones at all for that matter. It's so strongly against the current established system that it's generally political suicide to push for that position. To a large extent, having a strong military is a very good thing - the military is very good at pushing some genuinely valuable technological innovation, and also paves the way for a lot of very useful economic developments (e.g. Silicon Valley started from a very substantial military investment, the current Russian IT boom is very military-derivative). The problem, however, is that in the wrong hands, more military means more war. This is the entire idea of "beware of the military-industrial complex" which is just the observation that while the military is a good thing, it's often tied to more war. Unfortunately, Trump went after a rather minor issue: other countries "taking advantage" of the US in their nations. Yes, it is true that the US does a lot of the military heavy lifting for many nations, but this is by design. Yes, there are some nations that get more than they put into NATO, not in security but simply in the form of monetary infusion from servicing American military personnel within their country. But a lot of the US "heavy lifting" is by design, and the US is wealthy enough that it's really not economically painful for it to keep up its military involvement as it is now. The arguments against this point are easy to make because he's wrong about how to go about reducing NATO. Still, he does deserve credit for being one of the only people to acknowledge that the current framework of NATO is wrong and it needs to reform. Maybe Trump will pave the way for a more level-headed politician to address the proper issues, or maybe he will undermine the entire idea of reforming NATO based on more realistic goals. The risk of not doing so is to lead countries away from the current security structure into one that is more dangerous for the world - while there is absolutely a lot of benefit to a multipolar world (a unipolar power is a dangerous exercise in arrogance), there really is a lot of benefit in preventing every strong nation from clashing over political interests and for that there needs to be a framework for encouraging cooperation, and Trump's plan would undermine that. The risk is that Trump might undermine the entire idea of reforming NATO by association with stupidity. It's always hard to know how things like this will play out - historically, both have happened. Personally I think that Trump's position really lets people know that there is a strong underlying sentiment that NATO needs reforming, and that some politicians will be able to push for that in a more realistic manner, so I do give credit to Trump for acknowledging issues of importance. I have to respond here, because this post contains a lot of inaccuracies, vague and/or misleading shortcuts & oversimplifications, distortions, as well as outright falsehoods. Some assertions point towards a lack of understanding of NATO's history and functioning. I'm all for debating the merits of the continued existence of NATO and of past, present and future operations undertaken under the NATO framework, but an intelligent discussion on these issues requires an informed understanding of the reality of the organization and an avoidance of superficial caricatures. I will address the contents of your post paragraph by paragraph, while tackling your larger points in the process as well. Show nested quote +On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 07:12 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 07:04 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 07:03 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 06:53 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:46 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 06:40 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:37 Plansix wrote:On October 01 2016 06:34 WolfintheSheep wrote: [quote] Remind me, what was the one time NATO was used to drag people into war? And what was that war about? Are you saying that it has fucked over the EU more time than it has fucked over the US? Well, that and the only times any of the war articles were invoked were about terrorist groups and Middle Eastern wars. Of course, that factoid is about as relevant as the fact that the US has not declared war since WWII. Technically true, but also fully missing the point that it really is just a technicality because official application of the legal statutes is much more significant than just their "informal" use. Well, okay? But I don't see what that has to do with NATO now. I mean, France said fuck off when you tried to drag them into Iraq. Sure, you gave them the stink-eye for it, but they're still in NATO. Coercion comes in more forms than just legal mandate. Right, so which wars were the US dragged into by coercion? I'll give a better response in a few hours. On the road right now. Guuuh. What a miserable day of travel. Anyways, let's start with a very brief history of NATO. In the aftermath of WWII, most of Europe was pretty badly war-torn, but the US was quite well off - it managed to avoid battle in its own country by virtue of being two oceans away from the battlefield. Germany had fought its second gigantic war in a very short period of time and the country was split into four because people feared a third German war. The US also had the Marshall Plan and other initiatives meant to foster the reconstruction of Europe, but of course reconstructed in such a way that it benefited the US and its FP alignment. NATO also came out of this period. After China became communist and the Korean War was fought, there was a genuine threat in the form of a Chinese-Soviet alliance, which could very well become a threat that could outdo the US. So NATO reunited West Germany into one country (because Germany is a strong ally, despite its danger) and became focused on deterrence of communism. Obviously it's a partisan geopolitical goal but that's fine; countries have those. A rather positive side effect of that alliance was that Europe started to come together into an economic community of its own, which took many forms but has since coalesced into the European Union. The reasons for NATO's existence have mostly faded. The Warsaw Pact / USSR alliance collapsed, and while it is likely that Russia will eventually recover a lot of the strength that the alliance had, the bigger reason that Russia and China really aren't allies and never were. They will work together if it's a geopolitical necessity but they really aren't fundamentally compatible on an ideological level. USSR and China were enemies as much allies a lot of the time. They were both nominally communist but the reality was that they were far from the same kind of communism. The possibility of a Chinese invasion of Siberia was well-explored and considered to be a realistic threat that needed to be addressed in Russia. This introduction muddies the timeline and the causal relationships between events. The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in April 1949 and the Federal Republic of Germany was created in May of the same year. Neither were a reaction to Mao's forces prevailing in China or to the beginning of the Korean War -- in fact, the Korean war started more than a year after both events, in June 1950. NATO was created with the threat of Soviet expansionism in mind specifically, not because of the potential threat of a Soviet-Chinese alliance. The tensions between the USSR and the People's Republic of China were noticed by the Americans during the Cold War, and Kissinger in particular sought to exploit them by initiating a diplomatic rapprochement between the US and the PRC. These tensions were and are irrelevant to the matter of whether or not NATO is obsolete. The impact that the Korean war did have, however, was to help convince some in the West who were until then reluctant about rearming West Germany, that its rearmament was a necessity as a precaution against possible Soviet territorial ambitions. Many decision-makers in the West indeed saw Stalin's influence between North Korea's invasion of its southern neighbor (and later China's participation in the war) -- they felt that the USSR was testing the West's resolve against Soviet expansionism. Adenauer already supported rearmament, and the Korean war helped move public opinion towards his position. Pressure from the U.S. also led France to agree to the change, although with some caveats: the French initially pushed for the creation of a supranational European Defence Community, aiming to allay their concerns about an independent German military. The project fell through when it was rejected by the French Parliament in 1954, and West Germany was instead admitted into NATO and the Western European Union, using those frameworks instead to ease concerns about its rearmament. Finally, "Europe start[ing] to come together into an economic community of its own" was not a "side effect" of NATO. The birth of the European Coal and Steel Community in the early 1950s was the result of the policies of both Western European leaders (in particular from France) and the U.S. government, but the NATO framework did not play a role and European integration was not a "side effect" of the organization and the cooperation it entailed. The Schuman government was already preparing the groundwork for the ECSC before the North Atlantic Treaty was signed, and the United States' support for European integration did not need to be communicated through NATO channels. The projects for deepened integration that were pushed by European leaders in the second half of the 1950s and then in the following decades were not "side effects" of the existence of NATO either. It can obviously be argued that NATO played its part in ensuring peace among Western states and stability on the European continent, but that's another argument. Show nested quote +On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote:Since the 1990s, NATO has been... different. I'm sure we're all at least somewhat familiar with the neoconservative movement, which basically takes the perspective that the US and the American view of democracy is the One True Path and that others should be coerced into joining that circle; basically the whole "spreading democracy" shtick is this. There's also a liberal equivalent, which is more or less the same but also has a cultural/economic hegemony element to it and has a cultural objectivist viewpoint (this group is somewhat poorly defined, but I personally refer to such people by the "neoliberal" label which is imperfect, but close to what it's meant to be). Both of these viewpoints became far more mainstream after the end of the USSR and they have a large influence on the modern policy of the US and its most loyal supporters. An interesting document of neocon policy that has played a large role in modern FP was the Wolfowitz Doctrine. The long and short of it is, it's a doctrine that views the US as the one and only superpower in the world and that the US should keep it that way. To do so, the goal was simply to convince a lot of countries to abandon their ambitions of being world powers in their own right (Japan and Germany) and to prevent the rise of those who really can't be controlled (Russia and China; this made much more sense in the early 1990s). Basically it was a gigantic display of arrogance that overestimated the strength of the US in the world; there have been stronger empires in the past, they weren't ever able to do what the Wolfowitz Doctrine set out to do, and those didn't have to worry about their enemies having "nah fuck it all of you die" nukes if their existence was threatened. Nevertheless it's a very influential document that defines the US foreign policy to this day. To a large extent NATO has always been an extension of the will of the US foreign policy ambitions, and was designed that way from the beginning. [...] + Show Spoiler [Other text that I address below] + When you say "when has the US been forced into a war because of NATO?" you are missing the point. The US is the one that forces other countries into war. The 1990s saw some pretty imperialistic actions under NATO - most notably its involvement in Yugoslavia and somewhat in the Middle East, and a lot of these were simply blatant attempts to realign nations more closely with what the US would like. The years since then have been pretty similar, but Russia and China are a lot stronger than they were in that brief period of the 1990s and are much more capable of reacting and standing in the way of NATO than they were back then. The reaction of the US has been to meddle with the geopolitics of those countries by escalating conflicts that those nations have that existed, but have mostly been suppressed. Ukraine, Georgia, South China Sea, Chinese-Japanese land disputes, etc. Note that the military actions of NATO as an entity have been entirely in the post-Soviet era. However, the issue is that the US usually doesn't fight these wars itself - it uses Europe to fight those wars on its behalf. Note that Japan and the South China Sea countries in East Asia, and the EU in Europe, are the major parties that actually act to support US interests in the area - under military/economic coercion. Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to. Nevertheless, other countries get dragged into not-their-battle very easily and the NATO framework is to a large extent the means by which this occurs. The current refugee crisis is also a pretty significant not-their-battle that Europe has been dragged into, with rather substantial consequences.
Now, what about the incidental effect of the alliance, the newly found unification of Europe? Well to put it simply, it's already happened. The EU may or may not survive - the current structure involves more powerful EU nations exploiting weaker EU nations and very adamantly refusing to change - but the idea of a European economic union will almost certainly survive. The security alliance may not - frankly, most countries are not inherently aligned with US interests on international matters. Britain is (the "special relationship" is a strong cultural closeness that has been acknowledged for well over a century), but France, Germany, and most of the rest of Europe are not particularly so and often diverge from US interests. France, in fact, while being in NATO also sought to, in the event of war with the East, establish its own "separate peace" and as such developed a lot of its own military/nuclear capability. Germany is still fearful of appearing to be the Nazis again and has deliberately crippled a lot of its potential to be a powerful military nation. Turkey is... Turkey. Though they may have some willingness to comply with the FP ambitions of the US at present, a consistent divergence in FP ambitions is very apparent and if the US abuses its favorable political arrangement then it will slowly but surely degrade the viability of the alliance.
[...] So in a sense, it is very true that NATO is obsolete. Its original goal - to contain the geopolitical threat of a unified communist opposition - is not the threat it was feared to be. At present, it is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy. These two excerpts illustrate the amalgamations that are found throughout your post between neoconservatism and U.S. foreign policy on the one hand, and between U.S. foreign policy and NATO on the other hand (resulting in your final statement that NATO "is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy"). I will address the latter later on, and will comment on the former first. You are significantly overstating the influence of neoconservatism and neoconservatists on U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. To begin, neoconservatives did not have this kind of substantial influence on U.S. foreign policy until 2001, when several of them were recruited into the GWB administration. Before that, some second-generation neocons (among those labeled "Scoop Jackson Democrats" by Justin Vaïsse, including Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz) had played a role (some analysts argue it was significant, others less so) in parts of Reagan's foreign policy agenda, but the ideas they and third-generation neocons (Bill Kristol, Gary Schmitt, Robert Kagan, Max Boot, etc.) put forward were not the major foreign policy "persuasion" within the Republican party in the 1990s, let alone in the Clinton administration. Likewise, their writings and advocacy (within think tanks and publications such as the American Enterprise Institute, the Project for the New American Century, the Weekly Standard and others) were not a driving force behind the foreign policy decisions made by the Clinton administration (they still were somewhat influential in some policy circles and they starting laying the groundwork for their breakthrough in the GWB administration, but the voting record of Congressional Republicans with regards to Kosovo in 1999 shows that the policy prescriptions of neoconservatives did not even convince a majority of Republican lawmakers at the time). When the Clinton administration opted for intervention during the 1990s, including when NATO was involved (in the Bosnian war and in Kosovo war), it was not because of the influence of neoconservatives or neoconservative thinking (worth noting as well is that neoconservatives were not always united on those issues -- Fukuyama and Krauthammer did not support U.S. involvement in Bosnia, for example, although most neoconservatives policymakers were in favor of intervening - see Hamza Karčić's "US Neoconservative Support and Policy Activism for Bosnia, 1992–1995: Correcting the Record", Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs, Vol. 35, No. 3, 2015, pp. 344-358). I suggest reading Maria Ryan's Neoconservatism and the New American Century (2010) if you're interested in learning more about the limited influence of neocons during that period. Even after 2001, however, one should not overemphasize the influence of neoconservatives either -- while the role they played in the decision to invade Iraq is probably what they're the most famous for (other factors which led to the invasion also have to be taken into account, though), it has to be remembered that they had allies in more senior officials who were not necessarily neoconservatives per se but who shared some of the neocons' policy prescriptions (such as Rumsfeld and Cheney for invading Iraq). This is also when key elements of the "Wolfowitz doctrine" that you referenced were included in the 2002 National Security Strategy -- in 1992, several of those elements had faced public (and private -- many senior officials of the GHWB administration rejected key parts of that Defense Planning Guidance draft) rebuke. After 2006 and during GWB's second mandate, however, neocons were sidelined to an extent in the administration, and their more immediate influence on policy decreased substantially. They have not been in important positions of power and have not seen their ideas grain traction either within the Obama administration, which they have criticized at length except on some occasions (they supported the 2009 surge in Afghanistan, for example). Of course, neoconservatives still remain an important current in U.S. foreign policy debates, next to realists and liberals in particular. Some of the policy decisions they participated in during GWB's first mandate have effects to this day (for example through path dependency dynamics). Many are still very much active as scholars, whether in academia or in think tanks, and they do retain a significant influence within the Republican party (in particular with regards to their interventionist stances -- see Justin Vaïsse's "Why Neoconservatism Still Matters", Brookings Policy Paper, No. 20, 2010). Yet as I've explained, they remain only one current among others, and they certainly do not hold the reins to current US foreign policy making -- overall, the picture you're painting of neoconservatism as the essential embodiment of U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War is extremely inaccurate. If you would like to understand neoconservatism better, I recommend reading Daniel Cooper's Neoconservatism and American Foreign Policy: A Critical Analysis (2011) and Justin Vaïsse's Neoconservatism: The Biography of a Movement (2010). You do mention a "liberal equivalent" as well, using a pretty convoluted description and a label (neoliberalism) that is not particularly used compared to others such as "liberal interventionism". You gloss over significant distinctions between liberal interventionism and neoconservatism, however, and you also fail to appreciate that the liberal tent is heterogeneous -- liberal influence on U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War has not only included the ideas favored by "hawks". Obama's two mandates are a good example -- despite the Libyan intervention and the promotion of Samantha Power and Susan Rice (both seen by many as "liberal interventionists") within the ranks of the administration in 2013, Obama's foreign policy has combined elements of realism and different strands of liberalism. Among the differences between liberal interventionism and neoconservatism, I'll start by pointing out that one of the four or five pillars of neoconservatism is the importance granted to the military within the foreign policy spectrum of instruments -- neocons support keeping the defense budget high or increasing it, as well as using military force to achieve foreign policy goals. Liberal interventionists tend to be more prudent when it comes to the use of force, although they obviously can support it in given situations. Neoconservatives are more likely to support regime change, believing democracy has to be pushed abroad. Liberal interventionists, while they do welcome new democratic states, tend to focus more on interventions to prevent humanitarian crises. I won't expand on the neocon focus on maintaining unipolarity by actively preventing the rise of other powers, which isn't directly found among liberals. More importantly in the context of this discussion (see two paragraphs below), liberals emphasize the importance of international organizations and institutions, and the necessity to defend and uphold them as much as possible, while to a considerable extent neoconservatives see international organizations with much more circumspection. Indeed, international organizations and institutions are to be supported only as long as they directly serve US foreign policy objectives, but to be put aside if they constrain the US' freedom of action in pursuit of its national interest. Let's be clear here: US foreign policy from the end of the Cold War to present times, and US policy with regards to NATO, can hardly be reduced to neoconservatism and liberal interventionism (in addition, the two currents are obviously big tents themselves). I covered the influence of neoconservatism; concerns dear to liberal interventionists did play a role in several decisions to intervene militarily abroad during that period, but they were usually not the sole (or the primary) reasons behind those decisions (for example, with Kosovo, in addition to a desire to do something about the humanitarian crisis unfolding, one has to take into account, among other reasons for intervening, the Clinton administration's perception that NATO would lose credibility if it failed to act). Failing to recognize the vast spectra of ideas, positions, actors and influences behind U.S. foreign policy, not only in addition to neoconservatism and liberalism but even within the liberal tent itself, leads you to present only a shallow and misleading caricature of U.S. foreign policy -- exactly like when you argue that the Wolfowitz doctrine has "defined" US foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. The same is true when you write "There are plenty of neoconservative Democrats as well. Hillary Clinton for example". Unless "neoconservatism" loses all meaning and is now defined as "being more willing to use military force than Obama", Hillary Clinton is not a neoconservative. The fact that prominent neoconservatives have supported her over Trump does not make her a neoconservative (FP experts from all backgrounds support her), and the fact that she has in the past supported some interventions that neoconservatives happened to also support does not make her a neoconservative either. To be sure, some neocons hope that she will be more receptive to their policy prescriptions than Obama has been, but the label "neocon" still simply does not match the reality of her past positions on matters of foreign policy and of her tenure as Secretary of State. As to how she will act as president, some analysts think it is not likely that she'll be the kind of liberal hawk that others have described her as, but this is obviously speculation. This brings me to another issue with the paragraphs I quoted above, found also in particular in the following two paragraphs (which I put in spoiler tags previously): + Show Spoiler [Two paragraphs which were spoilered] +On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: To a large extent NATO has always been an extension of the will of the US foreign policy ambitions, and was designed that way from the beginning. When you say "when has the US been forced into a war because of NATO?" you are missing the point. The US is the one that forces other countries into war. The 1990s saw some pretty imperialistic actions under NATO - most notably its involvement in Yugoslavia and somewhat in the Middle East, and a lot of these were simply blatant attempts to realign nations more closely with what the US would like. The years since then have been pretty similar, but Russia and China are a lot stronger than they were in that brief period of the 1990s and are much more capable of reacting and standing in the way of NATO than they were back then. The reaction of the US has been to meddle with the geopolitics of those countries by escalating conflicts that those nations have that existed, but have mostly been suppressed. Ukraine, Georgia, South China Sea, Chinese-Japanese land disputes, etc. Note that the military actions of NATO as an entity have been entirely in the post-Soviet era. However, the issue is that the US usually doesn't fight these wars itself - it uses Europe to fight those wars on its behalf. Note that Japan and the South China Sea countries in East Asia, and the EU in Europe, are the major parties that actually act to support US interests in the area - under military/economic coercion. Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to. Nevertheless, other countries get dragged into not-their-battle very easily and the NATO framework is to a large extent the means by which this occurs. The current refugee crisis is also a pretty significant not-their-battle that Europe has been dragged into, with rather substantial consequences.
Now, what about the incidental effect of the alliance, the newly found unification of Europe? Well to put it simply, it's already happened. The EU may or may not survive - the current structure involves more powerful EU nations exploiting weaker EU nations and very adamantly refusing to change - but the idea of a European economic union will almost certainly survive. The security alliance may not - frankly, most countries are not inherently aligned with US interests on international matters. Britain is (the "special relationship" is a strong cultural closeness that has been acknowledged for well over a century), but France, Germany, and most of the rest of Europe are not particularly so and often diverge from US interests. France, in fact, while being in NATO also sought to, in the event of war with the East, establish its own "separate peace" and as such developed a lot of its own military/nuclear capability. Germany is still fearful of appearing to be the Nazis again and has deliberately crippled a lot of its potential to be a powerful military nation. Turkey is... Turkey. Though they may have some willingness to comply with the FP ambitions of the US at present, a consistent divergence in FP ambitions is very apparent and if the US abuses its favorable political arrangement then it will slowly but surely degrade the viability of the alliance.
So in a sense, it is very true that NATO is obsolete. Its original goal - to contain the geopolitical threat of a unified communist opposition - is not the threat it was feared to be. At present, it is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy. Indeed, you are also indirectly misrepresenting to an extent the position of neoconservatives on NATO. In the 1990s and the early 2000s, neoconservatives lobbied for the expansion of NATO through groups like the New Atlantic Initiative (some) and the U.S. Committee on NATO (many). Yet neoconservatives do not support NATO because it is a way to "drag other countries into not-their-war". They support NATO's existence because it helps cement American primacy in Europe (expanding NATO was in this perspective seen as a way to prevent the newcomers in the alliance from falling back within Russia's sphere of influence and perhaps abandon democracy -- note that neoconservatives were not the only ones to adopt this line of thinking, though). and because it serves a purpose with regards to the political legitimization of certain actions taken in the pursuit of U.S. foreign policy objectives, the expansion being therefore useful regarding the political support US actions may receive from Central and Eastern European countries. In this perspective, NATO is much more useful on the political level than on the military level -- when it comes to the kind of military interventions you're referring to, neoconservatives are much more at ease with going to war with ad hoc "coalitions of the willing" that are not as constraining as NATO (see for example how neoconservatives (and others) criticized the NATO "war by committee" in the case of Kosovo -- see Stewart Patrick's "The Mission Determines the Coalition”: The United States and Multilateral Cooperation after 9/11" in Bruce Jones et al. (2010), Cooperating for Peace and Security : Evolving Institutions and Arrangements in a Context of Changing U. S. Security Policy). NATO is simply not the kind of vehicle for "neoconservative foreign policy" that you're describing. Let's proceed by examining further the first of the two paragraphs I just quoted, however. Show nested quote +On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: To a large extent NATO has always been an extension of the will of the US foreign policy ambitions, and was designed that way from the beginning. When you say "when has the US been forced into a war because of NATO?" you are missing the point. The US is the one that forces other countries into war. The 1990s saw some pretty imperialistic actions under NATO - most notably its involvement in Yugoslavia and somewhat in the Middle East, and a lot of these were simply blatant attempts to realign nations more closely with what the US would like. The years since then have been pretty similar, but Russia and China are a lot stronger than they were in that brief period of the 1990s and are much more capable of reacting and standing in the way of NATO than they were back then. The reaction of the US has been to meddle with the geopolitics of those countries by escalating conflicts that those nations have that existed, but have mostly been suppressed. Ukraine, Georgia, South China Sea, Chinese-Japanese land disputes, etc. Note that the military actions of NATO as an entity have been entirely in the post-Soviet era. However, the issue is that the US usually doesn't fight these wars itself - it uses Europe to fight those wars on its behalf. Note that Japan and the South China Sea countries in East Asia, and the EU in Europe, are the major parties that actually act to support US interests in the area - under military/economic coercion. Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to. Nevertheless, other countries get dragged into not-their-battle very easily and the NATO framework is to a large extent the means by which this occurs. The current refugee crisis is also a pretty significant not-their-battle that Europe has been dragged into, with rather substantial consequences. This paragraph contains several assertions that range from oversimplifications to complete distortions of reality. I won't delve into your use of "imperialistic" -- I find it analytically unhelpful and misleading, in particular when it comes to US involvement in the Bosnian war, but let's focus on the facts. First, can you tell me which "imperialistic" NATO actions in the Middle East in the 1990s you're referring to? The only two NATO missions in the region that I can think of are Operation Anchor Guard and Operation Ace Guard, through which some relatively minor NATO assets were sent to Turkey preventively in 1990-1991 in light of the possible threat posed by Iraq at Turkey's southern border after Saddam Hussein's invasion of Koweit. Next, your claim that it is the U.S. that started escalating conflicts that had "mostly been suppressed" in Ukraine, Georgia, the South China sea, and with regards to "Chinese-Japanese land disputes" is grossly inaccurate, especially since you're saying that the US-aligned parties are acting "under coercion". In Ukraine, although the U.S. supported the opposition which ousted Yanukovych, and although previously the Bush administration wanted Ukraine to join NATO (and in general the U.S. wanted Ukraine to open itself further to the West), it is nevertheless first and foremost the domestic opposition to Yanukovych that initiated the events of 2014, and it is Russia that decided to use military force to invade the country. Erasing these actors' agency and the role they played in the escalation of the situation paints a very misleading picture of what happened. In Georgia, the Bush administration did train parts of the Georgian military and pushed for the country to join NATO, but it is still the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, who wanted and decided to use military force to bring Abkhazia and South Ossetia back under Georgian control, despite (perhaps too timid) warnings from U.S. officials -- and it is Russia that chose to respond with military force as well. Of course, in both cases, understanding how things got to where they are does require taking into account how the U.S. pushed to get both Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, and in general tried to draw them towards the West. Yet ignoring everything else to state that it is the U.S. that escalated suppressed conflicts is simply not accurate. As a side note, I'd like to add that one has to keep in mind that Ukraine and Georgia are sovereign states, and that the fact that Russia wants them to stay in its sphere of influence should not simply be taken as the legitimate baseline. Russia responding with military force to states slipping out of its sphere of influence through sovereign decisions makes Russia the party most responsible for escalation due to its own ambitions. In the South China sea, tensions have grown and escalated due to China's increasingly assertive claims to territories and waters. That the U.S. took a firmer position on the matter under Obama doesn't change the fact that the tensions were not dormant or "suppressed" but already increasing, and that it is China who is trying to change the status quo and who is escalating the dispute -- the U.S. is reacting to the developments, not instigating them, and it is privately trying to an extent to ease up tensions. Finally, blaming the U.S. for escalation in the Senkaku Islands dispute is nonsense. It is both Japan and China that recently took steps that led to increased tensions, and the U.S. has reacted by reaffirming its treaty commitment to the defense of Japan, and by continuing to fly its military planes normally in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone despite the introduction in 2013 by China of restrictions on air traffic in the area. Again, pretending here that it is the U.S. that is escalating suppressed conflicts is simply not true. The final part of your paragraph in which you develop your claim that the U.S. is militarily/economically coercing European and Asian states into fighting the wars and fights of the US is even more divorced from reality. With regards to the situation in Asia, several Asian states have been hostile to Chinese ambitions in the South China sea for years, and they rallied behind the U.S. when it took a firmer stance -- not because the U.S. forced them to, but precisely because they saw the development as an opportunity to stand up to China (which had been pushing for bilateral discussions with each state) more easily. I'm also not sure of how you picture the role of the NATO framework with regards to the situation there. When it comes to European states participating in NATO interventions in and around Europe, your assertion is misguided as well. Let's begin with NATO's Operation Deliberate Force in 1995 in the Bosnian war. Your comment about European states fighting on the US' behalf, while the latter doesn't fight, is false -- the U.S. provided by far the most important share of the aircraft and resources used in the operation (see for example chapters 8 & 9 in particular in Col Robert C. Owen's (ed.) Deliberate Force - A Case Study in Effective Air Campaigning (2000) -- after the Dayton Accords, though, European states did send most of the NATO troops in the peacekeeping missions IFOR and SFOR in the area, but that was after the operation and not to engage in fighting). There was no use of military/economic coercion by the U.S. on its European allies either -- in fact, until the summer of 1995, the U.S. and Western European states had substantial disagreements and different positions on how to proceed in Bosnia with regards to the role of UN peacekeepers, to NATO involvement, and to the use of force by NATO. Only after the Srebrenica massacre, the London Conference of July 1995 and the following diplomatic efforts by U.S. representatives, did European leaders rally behind both the new plan put forward by the U.S. to get the parties in the conflict to reach a peace settlement (a plan that was welcomed by European leaders, who reacted positively to the new American leadership on the issue), and the military options and triggering mechanisms that the U.S. favored. Of course, some divergences remained, including during ODF itself, but the Europeans did not get behind the U.S. and participate in the NATO operation due to "military/economic coercion" at all. See for example, for the American perspective, Derek Chollet, The Road to the Dayton Accords -- A study of American Statecraft (2005), in particular chapter 2. Here are a few relevant scans: + Show Spoiler [p. 43] ++ Show Spoiler [p. 44] ++ Show Spoiler [p. 45] +I'll quickly quote here another post of yours: Show nested quote +On October 02 2016 09:26 LegalLord wrote:On October 02 2016 03:27 Sermokala wrote: Calling the prevention of a large scale genocide in yugoslavia as an imperialist action is pretty stupid. Europe didn't want to get their hands dirty in the most obvious post cold war problem they could solve so America had to stop the war before it really kicked off.
The rest of that I pretty much agree with, nato has become a way for the us to cover for europes lack of military in exchange for increased Us influence on the world. As much as euroes like to parrot around about being free from US influence they only have a choice between the US and Russia. One will cut off their natural gas in the middle of winter and watch your people freeze to death while blaming you for it. Yugoslavia was a mess of a country whose demise was quite likely. As with quite a few Eastern European countries, there was quite a bit of ethnic strife that made it quite hard to exist as a single country. Part of the reason the USSR even had such a substantial security apparatus was that there were quite a few conflicts within an unstable part of the world (though that apparatus did have a number of key weaknesses of note since it was established in a less sane and more paranoid environment). However, it is also true that NATO, in Yugoslavia as in multiple other countries in their operating zones, pushed to escalate those conflicts into civil war and to end those civil wars on terms more favorable to parties that were pro-Western. [...] I've already addressed other elements of this paragraph above, but that claim that "NATO [...] pushed to escalate [...] into civil war" the situation in the Balkans in the early 1990s is, to put it mildly, utterly false and unfounded. The document you linked to in your follow-up post does not support the assertion at all. That claim is pure deceptive anti-NATO propaganda. Let's now move to the NATO involvement of 1999 in the Kosovo war. Here as well, the U.S. was by far the most important contributor of military assets and resources to the operation (for example by deploying 700 of the 1055 total aircraft) -- see notably chapter two of the RAND study by John E. Peters et al. (eds), European Contributions to Operation Allied Force (2001). The authors point out that "although alliance and U.S. press releases during the operation recognized the contributions of all participating air forces, the truth was that the United States was shouldering a disproportionately large share of the effort" (p. 52). I'll mention here that the decision to proceed through NATO instead of using military force unilaterally was among other reasons based on the fact that the U.S.' European allies had troops on the ground in Bosnia which would potentially be facing retaliation. With regards to the NATO air campaign itself, the U.S. managed to get the Europeans on board through diplomacy, accommodating some of their demands and assuaging some of their concerns with regards to the possible use of force against Milosevic. Your claim that this was the result of "military/economic pressure" applied by the U.S. is therefore again wrong. See for example Ivo H. Daalder and Michael E. O'Hanlon's Winning ugly : NATO’s war to save Kosovo (2001). Here are a few relevant scans: + Show Spoiler [p. 72] ++ Show Spoiler [p. 73] ++ Show Spoiler [p. 74] ++ Show Spoiler [p. 75] +I'll add that one of the reasons European leaders decided to move forward with building the EU's Common Security and Defence Policy (formerly known as the ESDP) towards the end of the 1990s is precisely their frustration over their own inability to solve the crises in their own backyard without the U.S. intervening and leading the effort. This brings me to the third example of a major NATO intervention in the European area/neighborhood: the organization's involvement in the Libyan civil war. With regards to the burden-sharing among NATO members during the intervention, other NATO members (France in particular) shouldered a larger share of the military effort than in the previous two examples, yet the participation of the U.S. was still vital to the operation and the Americans were responsible for the largest percentage of troops & personnel involved (50,5%), of aircraft deployed (38,2%) and of sorties (29,5%), in addition to other contributions. Yet even this larger role of other NATO members doesn't support your assertion, considering that the U.S. did not coerce those states into intervening, or try to to get them to fight its war, at all -- in fact, it is largely France (Sarkozy) that spearheaded the push to intervene, and the U.S. that joined France and the UK in supporting a military intervention (within the Obama administration, Rice and Power supported intervening, and they were eventually joined by Clinton). See for example Jeffrey H. Michaels' "Able but not willing -- A critical assessment of NATO’s Libya intervention", in Kjell Engelbrekt et al. (eds.), The NATO Intervention in Libya -- Lessons learned from the campaign (2014), pp. 20-22. In addition, NATO members that opposed/did not want to contribute to the operation (such as Germany and Poland) were not forced to do so at all. This is obviously not to say that the U.S. never tries to apply political pressure on its allies, but your claim simply does not resist scrutiny (and the same is true regarding NATO members' contributions to ISAF, by the way). I'd like to add that your sentence "Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to" reveals a deeply flawed understanding of how negotiations work (and pressure is sometimes exerted) within/around NATO. I'm curious to see with which examples you'd substantiate that comment. Show nested quote +On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: Now, what about the incidental effect of the alliance, the newly found unification of Europe? Well to put it simply, it's already happened. The EU may or may not survive - the current structure involves more powerful EU nations exploiting weaker EU nations and very adamantly refusing to change - but the idea of a European economic union will almost certainly survive. The security alliance may not - frankly, most countries are not inherently aligned with US interests on international matters. Britain is (the "special relationship" is a strong cultural closeness that has been acknowledged for well over a century), but France, Germany, and most of the rest of Europe are not particularly so and often diverge from US interests. France, in fact, while being in NATO also sought to, in the event of war with the East, establish its own "separate peace" and as such developed a lot of its own military/nuclear capability. Germany is still fearful of appearing to be the Nazis again and has deliberately crippled a lot of its potential to be a powerful military nation. Turkey is... Turkey. Though they may have some willingness to comply with the FP ambitions of the US at present, a consistent divergence in FP ambitions is very apparent and if the US abuses its favorable political arrangement then it will slowly but surely degrade the viability of the alliance. I won't repeat what I wrote in the beginning of my post with regards to the birth of the EU, but this is honestly a collection of clichés and superficial comments on the state and evolution of relations between European states and the US in matters of foreign policy and NATO cooperation. For example, it ignores France's gradual turn towards NATO in recent years (including since it rejoined NATO's integrated military command structures in 2009), notably with respect to how the organization is viewed among both civilian and military officials (the evolution has been fueled recently to a substantial extent by French disillusion with regards to the CSDP, in particular since its intervention in Mali -- as a side note, the effects of the Brexit on the CSDP will be interesting to follow when it comes to the position of France on the CSDP's potential), and it oversimplifies matters with respect to "national interests" and how they align or not (in particular regarding the UK-US relationship). Show nested quote +On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: So in a sense, it is very true that NATO is obsolete. Its original goal - to contain the geopolitical threat of a unified communist opposition - is not the threat it was feared to be. At present, it is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy. It's a very short-sighted approach that will undermine the existence of an alliance which, given valid cooperation with Russia, China, non-member allies, etc., can be very effective as a means to fight terrorism and enforce non-proliferation. Terrorism is an obvious threat, not just because people die in terrorist attacks but because the existence of terrorism strongly destabilizes the region where the terrorists operate, and nuclear proliferation just increases the danger that stupid countries without good nuclear policy start a nuclear war. Terrorism really does require international cooperation; if one side fights the terrorists but some other side supplies them, then the terrorists usually win one way or another. Non-proliferation also requires rather unified cooperation because the best way to convince a nation to abandon nuclear ambitions seems to be to show them that the rest of the world isn't really willing to offer them the means to do so.
So, after all that, let's get back to Trump. He did make the very valid observation that NATO in its current form is obsolete. It's a rare observation and not one made by many politicians, or any mainstream ones at all for that matter. It's so strongly against the current established system that it's generally political suicide to push for that position. To a large extent, having a strong military is a very good thing - the military is very good at pushing some genuinely valuable technological innovation, and also paves the way for a lot of very useful economic developments (e.g. Silicon Valley started from a very substantial military investment, the current Russian IT boom is very military-derivative). The problem, however, is that in the wrong hands, more military means more war. This is the entire idea of "beware of the military-industrial complex" which is just the observation that while the military is a good thing, it's often tied to more war. The idea that NATO in its current form is "obsolete" is pure nonsense and extremely ignorant (and recognizing this does not even require supporting the existence of the organization). You seem to be unaware of the evolution NATO has gone through since the end of the Cold War, and of the multiple purposes served, and programs implemented by, the organization. First, although the Soviet Union no longer exists, NATO remains a fundamental deterrent against any armed aggression against one of its member states, and any menace to their territorial integrity. This also makes it that much more difficult for non-member states to effectively use the (veiled or not) threat of armed aggression against any NATO member state to influence its policies. With regards to Russia, while current tensions have not reached some of the levels that characterized much of the Cold War, Eastern European states that are part of NATO are still more than supportive of the existence of the alliance and of its charter's article V. Deterrence against armed aggression remains relevant today. In addition, the nuclear umbrella provided by NATO member states with nuclear capabilities (the U.S. in particular) means that non-nuclear member states benefit from nuclear deterrence without having to acquire nuclear weapons themselves. I'll mention here that NATO has also been active in the development of a ballistic missile defense program to protect Europe. With regards to the two topics you mention, nuclear non-proliferation and terrorism, NATO is already active on both fronts. The organization cooperates with both individual states and international organizations (such as the EU, through its IcSP and INSC instruments in particular) to avoid the spread of WMDs, and monitor and secure existing weapons and materials. With respect to terrorism, the organization facilitates intelligence-sharing and shared assessments, and contributes to the strategic analysis of threats. It was obviously directly involved in counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency efforts on the ground through ISAF, and provides counter-terrorism expertise to member states and partner countries. It also facilitates the allocation and deployment of capabilities to actively combat terrorist groups. In short, it is already doing what you said it should be doing (except if I'm not mistaken you'd like Russia and others to be directly involved). To pick up on what I just mentioned, the NATO framework is obviously very useful in facilitating the rapid multilateral deployment of military forces both within the borders of its member states and beyond them (in this respect, the organization has evolved since the end of the Cold War and has devoted a large part of its operational focus on deployment beyond its initial geographical scope), thanks to the numerous benefits it brings at all levels and stages of troop mobilization and deployment. The alliance is in addition of particular value with regards to the issue of interoperability between the armed forces of its member states. The application and adoption of NATO standards, and the development of equipment interoperability, has been and continues to be of enormous importance to facilitate how the military assets of member states can function together. This is true as well of the NATO education, training, exercises, and evaluation programs designed to ensure that the armed forces of member states are capable of cooperating effectively and engaging militarily together. NATO is also very active in developing capabilities and coordinating efforts in the area of cyber defense, and it is working with partner states and international organizations at different levels in relation to the issue. Other missions and areas of activity include anti-piracy efforts (in particular around Somalia), the monitoring of important energy supply flows, recent initiatives pertaining to the role of women in peace and security efforts, scientific research activities in various domains, and plenty of other activities that I'm not going to be able to list here. As I mentioned above, NATO also engages in partnerships, dialogues, and in cooperation in general with various non-member states and international organizations, sometimes through institutionalized structures. It allows the U.S. and member states to make use of this security & defense network of cooperation when relevant in their exchanges with those non-NATO actors. NATO can also provide expertise and guidance to prospective members or interested states when it comes to institutional frameworks and practices pertaining to civil-military relations (in order to help those states cement a civilian control of their military) or other similar issues, as well as regarding practices in civil emergency planning and the consolidation of " civil preparedness". It's impossible to be exhaustive here, so I'll limit myself to these few examples, but the bottom line is that NATO has been and continues to be extremely valuable to its member states in various domains related to security, defense and foreign policy. NATO continues to serve their security interests in many respects, and it is therefore not obsolete at all (and this is again not to say that there cannot be legitimate criticism of, or debate over, the functioning, programs, or actions/interventions of the organization). And while cooperation and partnerships with non-NATO members are encouraged as I mentioned, NATO cannot be expected to completely ignore the tensions that exist with some states such as Russia, given Russia's behavior in recent years in Ukraine, given the state of the relations between several NATO member states and Russia, and given the fears shared by some in NATO, in particular among Eastern European states, over possible future destabilization efforts by Russia on the latter's periphery. Show nested quote +On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: Unfortunately, Trump went after a rather minor issue: other countries "taking advantage" of the US in their nations. Yes, it is true that the US does a lot of the military heavy lifting for many nations, but this is by design. Yes, there are some nations that get more than they put into NATO, not in security but simply in the form of monetary infusion from servicing American military personnel within their country. But a lot of the US "heavy lifting" is by design, and the US is wealthy enough that it's really not economically painful for it to keep up its military involvement as it is now. The arguments against this point are easy to make because he's wrong about how to go about reducing NATO. Still, he does deserve credit for being one of the only people to acknowledge that the current framework of NATO is wrong and it needs to reform.
Maybe Trump will pave the way for a more level-headed politician to address the proper issues, or maybe he will undermine the entire idea of reforming NATO based on more realistic goals. The risk of not doing so is to lead countries away from the current security structure into one that is more dangerous for the world - while there is absolutely a lot of benefit to a multipolar world (a unipolar power is a dangerous exercise in arrogance), there really is a lot of benefit in preventing every strong nation from clashing over political interests and for that there needs to be a framework for encouraging cooperation, and Trump's plan would undermine that. The risk is that Trump might undermine the entire idea of reforming NATO by association with stupidity. It's always hard to know how things like this will play out - historically, both have happened. Personally I think that Trump's position really lets people know that there is a strong underlying sentiment that NATO needs reforming, and that some politicians will be able to push for that in a more realistic manner, so I do give credit to Trump for acknowledging issues of importance. NATO has been evolving and going through reforms since the end of the Cold War. The recent Wales and Warsaw summits, for example, marked shifts in focus from those that came before them. NATO isn't supposed to be a worldwide forum to foster cooperation between every state, it is a military/security alliance. You seem to be misunderstanding what that implies and the kind of cooperation that it allows for, precisely because it is not some kind of OSCE (or UN) variant. NATO member states are not being "led away" from it -- it is rather the opposite that has been true in the last few years, and some partnerships are actually getting stronger (with Sweden and Finland, for example). Also, the existence of NATO is saving the U.S. a lot of money in different ways, and Trump doesn't know anything about NATO. *** To sum up, your post contains a substantial number of inaccuracies, distortions, and outright fabrications about NATO, its history, its past interventions, and its current state. Your comments on the influences behind U.S. foreign policy rest to a significant extent on caricatures, misrepresentations, and misleading generalizations. To be sure, there are plenty of legitimate debates that have been and continue to be had since the end of the Cold War over the continued existence of NATO, over its expansion, over some of the interventions it has conducted, over the challenges it faces (for example regarding the state of the armed forces of its European members -- both separately and collectively), etc. Yet for those debates to be fruitful, they require at least an understanding of what NATO currently does, how it works, and what it has done in the past. I'm not saying you're being purposely disingenuous when you're accusing NATO of being simultaneously "obsolete" and "to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy", but at the very least your post betrays both a heavy bias and a fundamental lack of understanding of the subject matter. And that's unfortunate, especially considering the very rude comment that you recently addressed to Plansix. If you would like to learn more about these issues, however, I can send you some additional references, as well as electronic copies of a few of the sources that I cited in this post. good read, thank you
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
Reviving a month-old discussion everyone else has already moved past, strawmanning every position and making a tangential argument, taking shit out of context (both from me and from your sources), grudge-collecting, and over-citing. Everything that makes a kwizach post a kwizach post, all in one convenient package.
I'm sure you know from experience, but I think it warrants mentioning that I don't plan on responding. I'm sure that the individual topics will come up again and perhaps I'll respond then if someone more reasonable makes the argument.
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And LegalLord waves the white flag, as expected. Way to wuss out, though I'm sure someone can join you in short order as they too tacitly admit that they don't actually read the posts they comment on. Kwizach even provided the counterpoint to every tired forum debate escape hatch you listed.
For more on the phenomena given evidence by LegalLord's exchanges with others here, I highly recommend ChristianS' blog on Scott Adams and "the cult of suavity."
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On November 01 2016 00:44 kwizach wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Alright, this reply to LegalLord's very flawed post on NATO is going to be a long one (I hadn't found the time to comment properly before today). Read on if you're interested in NATO & U.S. foreign policy. *** + Show Spoiler [Pretty long post by LegalLord on NATO] +On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2016 07:12 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 07:04 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 07:03 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 06:53 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:46 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 06:40 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:37 Plansix wrote:On October 01 2016 06:34 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:28 LegalLord wrote: [quote] If NATO is used as a means to start wars and get people dragged into not-their-war as it sometimes does, the alliance will break apart. Not in a year, probably not in a decade, but well within our lifetimes. Instead, it should reconfigure itself to focus more on genuinely important matters like fighting terrorism (for real, not just to oust leaders they don't like under the guise of anti-terrorism) and non-proliferation. Remind me, what was the one time NATO was used to drag people into war? And what was that war about? Are you saying that it has fucked over the EU more time than it has fucked over the US? Well, that and the only times any of the war articles were invoked were about terrorist groups and Middle Eastern wars. Of course, that factoid is about as relevant as the fact that the US has not declared war since WWII. Technically true, but also fully missing the point that it really is just a technicality because official application of the legal statutes is much more significant than just their "informal" use. Well, okay? But I don't see what that has to do with NATO now. I mean, France said fuck off when you tried to drag them into Iraq. Sure, you gave them the stink-eye for it, but they're still in NATO. Coercion comes in more forms than just legal mandate. Right, so which wars were the US dragged into by coercion? I'll give a better response in a few hours. On the road right now. Guuuh. What a miserable day of travel. Anyways, let's start with a very brief history of NATO. In the aftermath of WWII, most of Europe was pretty badly war-torn, but the US was quite well off - it managed to avoid battle in its own country by virtue of being two oceans away from the battlefield. Germany had fought its second gigantic war in a very short period of time and the country was split into four because people feared a third German war. The US also had the Marshall Plan and other initiatives meant to foster the reconstruction of Europe, but of course reconstructed in such a way that it benefited the US and its FP alignment. NATO also came out of this period. After China became communist and the Korean War was fought, there was a genuine threat in the form of a Chinese-Soviet alliance, which could very well become a threat that could outdo the US. So NATO reunited West Germany into one country (because Germany is a strong ally, despite its danger) and became focused on deterrence of communism. Obviously it's a partisan geopolitical goal but that's fine; countries have those. A rather positive side effect of that alliance was that Europe started to come together into an economic community of its own, which took many forms but has since coalesced into the European Union. The reasons for NATO's existence have mostly faded. The Warsaw Pact / USSR alliance collapsed, and while it is likely that Russia will eventually recover a lot of the strength that the alliance had, the bigger reason that Russia and China really aren't allies and never were. They will work together if it's a geopolitical necessity but they really aren't fundamentally compatible on an ideological level. USSR and China were enemies as much allies a lot of the time. They were both nominally communist but the reality was that they were far from the same kind of communism. The possibility of a Chinese invasion of Siberia was well-explored and considered to be a realistic threat that needed to be addressed in Russia. Since the 1990s, NATO has been... different. I'm sure we're all at least somewhat familiar with the neoconservative movement, which basically takes the perspective that the US and the American view of democracy is the One True Path and that others should be coerced into joining that circle; basically the whole "spreading democracy" shtick is this. There's also a liberal equivalent, which is more or less the same but also has a cultural/economic hegemony element to it and has a cultural objectivist viewpoint (this group is somewhat poorly defined, but I personally refer to such people by the "neoliberal" label which is imperfect, but close to what it's meant to be). Both of these viewpoints became far more mainstream after the end of the USSR and they have a large influence on the modern policy of the US and its most loyal supporters. An interesting document of neocon policy that has played a large role in modern FP was the Wolfowitz Doctrine. The long and short of it is, it's a doctrine that views the US as the one and only superpower in the world and that the US should keep it that way. To do so, the goal was simply to convince a lot of countries to abandon their ambitions of being world powers in their own right (Japan and Germany) and to prevent the rise of those who really can't be controlled (Russia and China; this made much more sense in the early 1990s). Basically it was a gigantic display of arrogance that overestimated the strength of the US in the world; there have been stronger empires in the past, they weren't ever able to do what the Wolfowitz Doctrine set out to do, and those didn't have to worry about their enemies having "nah fuck it all of you die" nukes if their existence was threatened. Nevertheless it's a very influential document that defines the US foreign policy to this day. To a large extent NATO has always been an extension of the will of the US foreign policy ambitions, and was designed that way from the beginning. When you say "when has the US been forced into a war because of NATO?" you are missing the point. The US is the one that forces other countries into war. The 1990s saw some pretty imperialistic actions under NATO - most notably its involvement in Yugoslavia and somewhat in the Middle East, and a lot of these were simply blatant attempts to realign nations more closely with what the US would like. The years since then have been pretty similar, but Russia and China are a lot stronger than they were in that brief period of the 1990s and are much more capable of reacting and standing in the way of NATO than they were back then. The reaction of the US has been to meddle with the geopolitics of those countries by escalating conflicts that those nations have that existed, but have mostly been suppressed. Ukraine, Georgia, South China Sea, Chinese-Japanese land disputes, etc. Note that the military actions of NATO as an entity have been entirely in the post-Soviet era. However, the issue is that the US usually doesn't fight these wars itself - it uses Europe to fight those wars on its behalf. Note that Japan and the South China Sea countries in East Asia, and the EU in Europe, are the major parties that actually act to support US interests in the area - under military/economic coercion. Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to. Nevertheless, other countries get dragged into not-their-battle very easily and the NATO framework is to a large extent the means by which this occurs. The current refugee crisis is also a pretty significant not-their-battle that Europe has been dragged into, with rather substantial consequences. Now, what about the incidental effect of the alliance, the newly found unification of Europe? Well to put it simply, it's already happened. The EU may or may not survive - the current structure involves more powerful EU nations exploiting weaker EU nations and very adamantly refusing to change - but the idea of a European economic union will almost certainly survive. The security alliance may not - frankly, most countries are not inherently aligned with US interests on international matters. Britain is (the "special relationship" is a strong cultural closeness that has been acknowledged for well over a century), but France, Germany, and most of the rest of Europe are not particularly so and often diverge from US interests. France, in fact, while being in NATO also sought to, in the event of war with the East, establish its own "separate peace" and as such developed a lot of its own military/nuclear capability. Germany is still fearful of appearing to be the Nazis again and has deliberately crippled a lot of its potential to be a powerful military nation. Turkey is... Turkey. Though they may have some willingness to comply with the FP ambitions of the US at present, a consistent divergence in FP ambitions is very apparent and if the US abuses its favorable political arrangement then it will slowly but surely degrade the viability of the alliance. So in a sense, it is very true that NATO is obsolete. Its original goal - to contain the geopolitical threat of a unified communist opposition - is not the threat it was feared to be. At present, it is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy. It's a very short-sighted approach that will undermine the existence of an alliance which, given valid cooperation with Russia, China, non-member allies, etc., can be very effective as a means to fight terrorism and enforce non-proliferation. Terrorism is an obvious threat, not just because people die in terrorist attacks but because the existence of terrorism strongly destabilizes the region where the terrorists operate, and nuclear proliferation just increases the danger that stupid countries without good nuclear policy start a nuclear war. Terrorism really does require international cooperation; if one side fights the terrorists but some other side supplies them, then the terrorists usually win one way or another. Non-proliferation also requires rather unified cooperation because the best way to convince a nation to abandon nuclear ambitions seems to be to show them that the rest of the world isn't really willing to offer them the means to do so. So, after all that, let's get back to Drumpf. He did make the very valid observation that NATO in its current form is obsolete. It's a rare observation and not one made by many politicians, or any mainstream ones at all for that matter. It's so strongly against the current established system that it's generally political suicide to push for that position. To a large extent, having a strong military is a very good thing - the military is very good at pushing some genuinely valuable technological innovation, and also paves the way for a lot of very useful economic developments (e.g. Silicon Valley started from a very substantial military investment, the current Russian IT boom is very military-derivative). The problem, however, is that in the wrong hands, more military means more war. This is the entire idea of "beware of the military-industrial complex" which is just the observation that while the military is a good thing, it's often tied to more war. Unfortunately, Drumpf went after a rather minor issue: other countries "taking advantage" of the US in their nations. Yes, it is true that the US does a lot of the military heavy lifting for many nations, but this is by design. Yes, there are some nations that get more than they put into NATO, not in security but simply in the form of monetary infusion from servicing American military personnel within their country. But a lot of the US "heavy lifting" is by design, and the US is wealthy enough that it's really not economically painful for it to keep up its military involvement as it is now. The arguments against this point are easy to make because he's wrong about how to go about reducing NATO. Still, he does deserve credit for being one of the only people to acknowledge that the current framework of NATO is wrong and it needs to reform. Maybe Drumpf will pave the way for a more level-headed politician to address the proper issues, or maybe he will undermine the entire idea of reforming NATO based on more realistic goals. The risk of not doing so is to lead countries away from the current security structure into one that is more dangerous for the world - while there is absolutely a lot of benefit to a multipolar world (a unipolar power is a dangerous exercise in arrogance), there really is a lot of benefit in preventing every strong nation from clashing over political interests and for that there needs to be a framework for encouraging cooperation, and Drumpf's plan would undermine that. The risk is that Drumpf might undermine the entire idea of reforming NATO by association with stupidity. It's always hard to know how things like this will play out - historically, both have happened. Personally I think that Drumpf's position really lets people know that there is a strong underlying sentiment that NATO needs reforming, and that some politicians will be able to push for that in a more realistic manner, so I do give credit to Drumpf for acknowledging issues of importance. I have to respond here, because this post contains a lot of inaccuracies, vague and/or misleading shortcuts & oversimplifications, distortions, as well as outright falsehoods. Some assertions point towards a lack of understanding of NATO's history and functioning. I'm all for debating the merits of the continued existence of NATO and of past, present and future operations undertaken under the NATO framework, but an intelligent discussion on these issues requires an informed understanding of the reality of the organization and an avoidance of superficial caricatures. I will address the contents of your post paragraph by paragraph, while tackling your larger points in the process as well. On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2016 07:12 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 07:04 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 07:03 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 06:53 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:46 LegalLord wrote:On October 01 2016 06:40 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:37 Plansix wrote:On October 01 2016 06:34 WolfintheSheep wrote:On October 01 2016 06:28 LegalLord wrote: [quote] If NATO is used as a means to start wars and get people dragged into not-their-war as it sometimes does, the alliance will break apart. Not in a year, probably not in a decade, but well within our lifetimes. Instead, it should reconfigure itself to focus more on genuinely important matters like fighting terrorism (for real, not just to oust leaders they don't like under the guise of anti-terrorism) and non-proliferation. Remind me, what was the one time NATO was used to drag people into war? And what was that war about? Are you saying that it has fucked over the EU more time than it has fucked over the US? Well, that and the only times any of the war articles were invoked were about terrorist groups and Middle Eastern wars. Of course, that factoid is about as relevant as the fact that the US has not declared war since WWII. Technically true, but also fully missing the point that it really is just a technicality because official application of the legal statutes is much more significant than just their "informal" use. Well, okay? But I don't see what that has to do with NATO now. I mean, France said fuck off when you tried to drag them into Iraq. Sure, you gave them the stink-eye for it, but they're still in NATO. Coercion comes in more forms than just legal mandate. Right, so which wars were the US dragged into by coercion? I'll give a better response in a few hours. On the road right now. Guuuh. What a miserable day of travel. Anyways, let's start with a very brief history of NATO. In the aftermath of WWII, most of Europe was pretty badly war-torn, but the US was quite well off - it managed to avoid battle in its own country by virtue of being two oceans away from the battlefield. Germany had fought its second gigantic war in a very short period of time and the country was split into four because people feared a third German war. The US also had the Marshall Plan and other initiatives meant to foster the reconstruction of Europe, but of course reconstructed in such a way that it benefited the US and its FP alignment. NATO also came out of this period. After China became communist and the Korean War was fought, there was a genuine threat in the form of a Chinese-Soviet alliance, which could very well become a threat that could outdo the US. So NATO reunited West Germany into one country (because Germany is a strong ally, despite its danger) and became focused on deterrence of communism. Obviously it's a partisan geopolitical goal but that's fine; countries have those. A rather positive side effect of that alliance was that Europe started to come together into an economic community of its own, which took many forms but has since coalesced into the European Union. The reasons for NATO's existence have mostly faded. The Warsaw Pact / USSR alliance collapsed, and while it is likely that Russia will eventually recover a lot of the strength that the alliance had, the bigger reason that Russia and China really aren't allies and never were. They will work together if it's a geopolitical necessity but they really aren't fundamentally compatible on an ideological level. USSR and China were enemies as much allies a lot of the time. They were both nominally communist but the reality was that they were far from the same kind of communism. The possibility of a Chinese invasion of Siberia was well-explored and considered to be a realistic threat that needed to be addressed in Russia. This introduction muddies the timeline and the causal relationships between events. The North Atlantic Treaty was signed in April 1949 and the Federal Republic of Germany was created in May of the same year. Neither were a reaction to Mao's forces prevailing in China or to the beginning of the Korean War -- in fact, the Korean war started more than a year after both events, in June 1950. NATO was created with the threat of Soviet expansionism in mind specifically, not because of the potential threat of a Soviet-Chinese alliance. The tensions between the USSR and the People's Republic of China were noticed by the Americans during the Cold War, and Kissinger in particular sought to exploit them by initiating a diplomatic rapprochement between the US and the PRC. These tensions were and are irrelevant to the matter of whether or not NATO is obsolete. The impact that the Korean war did have, however, was to help convince some in the West who were until then reluctant about rearming West Germany, that its rearmament was a necessity as a precaution against possible Soviet territorial ambitions. Many decision-makers in the West indeed saw Stalin's influence between North Korea's invasion of its southern neighbor (and later China's participation in the war) -- they felt that the USSR was testing the West's resolve against Soviet expansionism. Adenauer already supported rearmament, and the Korean war helped move public opinion towards his position. Pressure from the U.S. also led France to agree to the change, although with some caveats: the French initially pushed for the creation of a supranational European Defence Community, aiming to allay their concerns about an independent German military. The project fell through when it was rejected by the French Parliament in 1954, and West Germany was instead admitted into NATO and the Western European Union, using those frameworks instead to ease concerns about its rearmament. Finally, "Europe start[ing] to come together into an economic community of its own" was not a "side effect" of NATO. The birth of the European Coal and Steel Community in the early 1950s was the result of the policies of both Western European leaders (in particular from France) and the U.S. government, but the NATO framework did not play a direct role and European integration was not a "side effect" of the organization and the cooperation it entailed. The Schuman government was already preparing the groundwork for the ECSC before the North Atlantic Treaty was signed, and the United States' support for European integration did not need to be communicated through NATO channels. The projects for deepened integration that were pushed by European leaders in the second half of the 1950s and then in the following decades were not "side effects" of the existence of NATO either. It can obviously be argued that NATO played its part in ensuring peace among Western states and stability on the European continent, but that's a different argument. On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote:Since the 1990s, NATO has been... different. I'm sure we're all at least somewhat familiar with the neoconservative movement, which basically takes the perspective that the US and the American view of democracy is the One True Path and that others should be coerced into joining that circle; basically the whole "spreading democracy" shtick is this. There's also a liberal equivalent, which is more or less the same but also has a cultural/economic hegemony element to it and has a cultural objectivist viewpoint (this group is somewhat poorly defined, but I personally refer to such people by the "neoliberal" label which is imperfect, but close to what it's meant to be). Both of these viewpoints became far more mainstream after the end of the USSR and they have a large influence on the modern policy of the US and its most loyal supporters. An interesting document of neocon policy that has played a large role in modern FP was the Wolfowitz Doctrine. The long and short of it is, it's a doctrine that views the US as the one and only superpower in the world and that the US should keep it that way. To do so, the goal was simply to convince a lot of countries to abandon their ambitions of being world powers in their own right (Japan and Germany) and to prevent the rise of those who really can't be controlled (Russia and China; this made much more sense in the early 1990s). Basically it was a gigantic display of arrogance that overestimated the strength of the US in the world; there have been stronger empires in the past, they weren't ever able to do what the Wolfowitz Doctrine set out to do, and those didn't have to worry about their enemies having "nah fuck it all of you die" nukes if their existence was threatened. Nevertheless it's a very influential document that defines the US foreign policy to this day. To a large extent NATO has always been an extension of the will of the US foreign policy ambitions, and was designed that way from the beginning. [...] + Show Spoiler [Other text that I address below] + When you say "when has the US been forced into a war because of NATO?" you are missing the point. The US is the one that forces other countries into war. The 1990s saw some pretty imperialistic actions under NATO - most notably its involvement in Yugoslavia and somewhat in the Middle East, and a lot of these were simply blatant attempts to realign nations more closely with what the US would like. The years since then have been pretty similar, but Russia and China are a lot stronger than they were in that brief period of the 1990s and are much more capable of reacting and standing in the way of NATO than they were back then. The reaction of the US has been to meddle with the geopolitics of those countries by escalating conflicts that those nations have that existed, but have mostly been suppressed. Ukraine, Georgia, South China Sea, Chinese-Japanese land disputes, etc. Note that the military actions of NATO as an entity have been entirely in the post-Soviet era. However, the issue is that the US usually doesn't fight these wars itself - it uses Europe to fight those wars on its behalf. Note that Japan and the South China Sea countries in East Asia, and the EU in Europe, are the major parties that actually act to support US interests in the area - under military/economic coercion. Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to. Nevertheless, other countries get dragged into not-their-battle very easily and the NATO framework is to a large extent the means by which this occurs. The current refugee crisis is also a pretty significant not-their-battle that Europe has been dragged into, with rather substantial consequences.
Now, what about the incidental effect of the alliance, the newly found unification of Europe? Well to put it simply, it's already happened. The EU may or may not survive - the current structure involves more powerful EU nations exploiting weaker EU nations and very adamantly refusing to change - but the idea of a European economic union will almost certainly survive. The security alliance may not - frankly, most countries are not inherently aligned with US interests on international matters. Britain is (the "special relationship" is a strong cultural closeness that has been acknowledged for well over a century), but France, Germany, and most of the rest of Europe are not particularly so and often diverge from US interests. France, in fact, while being in NATO also sought to, in the event of war with the East, establish its own "separate peace" and as such developed a lot of its own military/nuclear capability. Germany is still fearful of appearing to be the Nazis again and has deliberately crippled a lot of its potential to be a powerful military nation. Turkey is... Turkey. Though they may have some willingness to comply with the FP ambitions of the US at present, a consistent divergence in FP ambitions is very apparent and if the US abuses its favorable political arrangement then it will slowly but surely degrade the viability of the alliance.
[...] So in a sense, it is very true that NATO is obsolete. Its original goal - to contain the geopolitical threat of a unified communist opposition - is not the threat it was feared to be. At present, it is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy. These two excerpts illustrate the amalgamations that are found throughout your post between neoconservatism and U.S. foreign policy on the one hand, and between U.S. foreign policy and NATO on the other hand (resulting in your final statement that NATO "is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy"). I will address the latter later on, and will comment on the former first. You are significantly overstating the influence of neoconservatism and neoconservatists on U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. To begin, neoconservatives did not have this kind of substantial influence on U.S. foreign policy until 2001, when several of them were recruited into the GWB administration. Before that, some second-generation neocons (among those labeled "Scoop Jackson Democrats" by Justin Vaïsse, including Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz) had played a role (some analysts argue it was significant, others less so) in parts of Reagan's foreign policy agenda, but the ideas they and third-generation neocons (Bill Kristol, Gary Schmitt, Robert Kagan, Max Boot, etc.) put forward were not the major foreign policy "persuasion" within the Republican party in the 1990s, let alone in the Clinton administration. Likewise, their writings and advocacy (within think tanks and publications such as the American Enterprise Institute, the Project for the New American Century, the Weekly Standard and others) were not a driving force behind the foreign policy decisions made by the Clinton administration (they still were somewhat influential in some policy circles and they starting laying the groundwork for their breakthrough in the GWB administration, but the voting record of Congressional Republicans with regards to Kosovo in 1999 shows that the policy prescriptions of neoconservatives did not even convince a majority of Republican lawmakers at the time). When the Clinton administration opted for intervention during the 1990s, including when NATO was involved (in the Bosnian war and in Kosovo war), it was not because of the influence of neoconservatives or neoconservative thinking (worth noting as well is that neoconservatives were not always united on those issues -- Fukuyama and Krauthammer did not support U.S. involvement in Bosnia, for example, although most neoconservatives policymakers were in favor of intervening - see Hamza Karčić's "US Neoconservative Support and Policy Activism for Bosnia, 1992–1995: Correcting the Record", Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs, Vol. 35, No. 3, 2015, pp. 344-358). I suggest reading Maria Ryan's Neoconservatism and the New American Century (2010) if you're interested in learning more about the limited influence of neocons during that period. Even after 2001, however, one should not overemphasize the influence of neoconservatives either -- while the role they played in the decision to invade Iraq is probably what they're the most famous for (other factors which led to the invasion also have to be taken into account, though), it has to be remembered that they had allies in more senior officials who were not necessarily neoconservatives per se but who shared some of the neocons' policy prescriptions (such as Rumsfeld and Cheney for invading Iraq). This is also when key elements of the "Wolfowitz doctrine" that you referenced were included in the 2002 National Security Strategy -- in 1992, several of those elements had faced public (and private -- many senior officials of the GHWB administration rejected key parts of that Defense Planning Guidance draft) rebuke. After 2006 and during GWB's second mandate, however, neocons were sidelined to an extent in the administration, and their more immediate influence on policy decreased substantially. They have not been in important positions of power and have not seen their ideas grain traction either within the Obama administration, which they have criticized at length except on some occasions (they supported the 2009 surge in Afghanistan, for example). Of course, neoconservatives still remain an important current in U.S. foreign policy debates, next to realists and liberals in particular. Some of the policy decisions they participated in during GWB's first mandate have effects to this day (for example through path dependency dynamics). Many are still very much active as scholars, whether in academia or in think tanks, and they do retain a significant influence within the Republican party (in particular with regards to their interventionist stances -- see Justin Vaïsse's "Why Neoconservatism Still Matters", Brookings Policy Paper, No. 20, 2010). Yet as I've explained, they remain only one current among others, and they certainly do not hold the reins to current US foreign policy making -- overall, the picture you're painting of neoconservatism as the essential embodiment of U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War is extremely inaccurate. If you would like to understand neoconservatism better, I recommend reading Daniel Cooper's Neoconservatism and American Foreign Policy: A Critical Analysis (2011) and Justin Vaïsse's Neoconservatism: The Biography of a Movement (2010). You do mention a "liberal equivalent" as well, using a pretty convoluted description and a label (neoliberalism) that is not particularly used compared to others such as "liberal interventionism". You gloss over significant distinctions between liberal interventionism and neoconservatism, however, and you also fail to appreciate that the liberal tent is heterogeneous -- liberal influence on U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War has not only included the ideas favored by "hawks". Obama's two mandates are a good example -- despite the Libyan intervention and the promotion of Samantha Power and Susan Rice (both seen by many as "liberal interventionists") within the ranks of the administration in 2013, Obama's foreign policy has combined elements of realism and different strands of liberalism. Among the differences between liberal interventionism and neoconservatism, I'll start by pointing out that one of the four or five pillars of neoconservatism is the importance granted to the military within the foreign policy spectrum of instruments -- neocons support keeping the defense budget high or increasing it, as well as using military force to achieve foreign policy goals. Liberal interventionists tend to be more prudent when it comes to the use of force, although they obviously can support it in given situations. Neoconservatives are more likely to support regime change, believing democracy has to be pushed abroad. Liberal interventionists, while they do welcome new democratic states, tend to focus more on interventions to prevent humanitarian crises. I won't expand on the neocon focus on maintaining unipolarity by actively preventing the rise of other powers, which isn't directly found among liberals. More importantly in the context of this discussion (see two paragraphs below), liberals emphasize the importance of international organizations and institutions, and the necessity to defend and uphold them as much as possible, while to a considerable extent neoconservatives see international organizations with much more circumspection. Indeed, international organizations and institutions are to be supported only as long as they directly serve US foreign policy objectives, but to be put aside if they constrain the US' freedom of action in pursuit of its national interest. Let's be clear here: US foreign policy from the end of the Cold War to present times, and US policy with regards to NATO, can hardly be reduced to neoconservatism and liberal interventionism (in addition, the two currents are obviously big tents themselves). I covered the influence of neoconservatism; concerns dear to liberal interventionists did play a role in several decisions to intervene militarily abroad during that period, but they were usually not the sole (or the primary) reasons behind those decisions (for example, with Kosovo, in addition to a desire to do something about the humanitarian crisis unfolding, one has to take into account, among other reasons for intervening, the Clinton administration's perception that NATO would lose credibility if it failed to act). Failing to recognize the vast spectra of ideas, positions, actors and influences behind U.S. foreign policy, not only in addition to neoconservatism and liberalism but even within the liberal tent itself, leads you to present only a shallow and misleading caricature of U.S. foreign policy -- exactly like when you argue that the Wolfowitz doctrine has "defined" US foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. The same is true when you write "There are plenty of neoconservative Democrats as well. Hillary Clinton for example". Unless "neoconservatism" loses all meaning and is now defined as "being more willing to use military force than Obama", Hillary Clinton is not a neoconservative. The fact that prominent neoconservatives have supported her over Drumpf does not make her a neoconservative (FP experts from virtually all backgrounds support her over him), and the fact that she has in the past supported some interventions that neoconservatives happened to also support does not make her a neoconservative either. To be sure, some neocons hope that she will be more receptive to their policy prescriptions than Obama has been, but the label "neocon" still simply does not match the reality of her past positions on matters of foreign policy and of her tenure as Secretary of State. As to how she will act as president, some analysts think it is not likely that she'll be the kind of liberal hawk that others have described her as, but this is obviously speculation. This brings me to another issue with the paragraphs I quoted above, found also in particular in the following two paragraphs (which I put in spoiler tags previously): + Show Spoiler [Two paragraphs which were spoilered] +On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: To a large extent NATO has always been an extension of the will of the US foreign policy ambitions, and was designed that way from the beginning. When you say "when has the US been forced into a war because of NATO?" you are missing the point. The US is the one that forces other countries into war. The 1990s saw some pretty imperialistic actions under NATO - most notably its involvement in Yugoslavia and somewhat in the Middle East, and a lot of these were simply blatant attempts to realign nations more closely with what the US would like. The years since then have been pretty similar, but Russia and China are a lot stronger than they were in that brief period of the 1990s and are much more capable of reacting and standing in the way of NATO than they were back then. The reaction of the US has been to meddle with the geopolitics of those countries by escalating conflicts that those nations have that existed, but have mostly been suppressed. Ukraine, Georgia, South China Sea, Chinese-Japanese land disputes, etc. Note that the military actions of NATO as an entity have been entirely in the post-Soviet era. However, the issue is that the US usually doesn't fight these wars itself - it uses Europe to fight those wars on its behalf. Note that Japan and the South China Sea countries in East Asia, and the EU in Europe, are the major parties that actually act to support US interests in the area - under military/economic coercion. Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to. Nevertheless, other countries get dragged into not-their-battle very easily and the NATO framework is to a large extent the means by which this occurs. The current refugee crisis is also a pretty significant not-their-battle that Europe has been dragged into, with rather substantial consequences.
Now, what about the incidental effect of the alliance, the newly found unification of Europe? Well to put it simply, it's already happened. The EU may or may not survive - the current structure involves more powerful EU nations exploiting weaker EU nations and very adamantly refusing to change - but the idea of a European economic union will almost certainly survive. The security alliance may not - frankly, most countries are not inherently aligned with US interests on international matters. Britain is (the "special relationship" is a strong cultural closeness that has been acknowledged for well over a century), but France, Germany, and most of the rest of Europe are not particularly so and often diverge from US interests. France, in fact, while being in NATO also sought to, in the event of war with the East, establish its own "separate peace" and as such developed a lot of its own military/nuclear capability. Germany is still fearful of appearing to be the Nazis again and has deliberately crippled a lot of its potential to be a powerful military nation. Turkey is... Turkey. Though they may have some willingness to comply with the FP ambitions of the US at present, a consistent divergence in FP ambitions is very apparent and if the US abuses its favorable political arrangement then it will slowly but surely degrade the viability of the alliance.
So in a sense, it is very true that NATO is obsolete. Its original goal - to contain the geopolitical threat of a unified communist opposition - is not the threat it was feared to be. At present, it is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy. Indeed, you are also indirectly misrepresenting to an extent the position of neoconservatives on NATO. In the 1990s and the early 2000s, neoconservatives lobbied for the expansion of NATO through groups like the New Atlantic Initiative (some) and the U.S. Committee on NATO (many). Yet neoconservatives do not support NATO because it is a way to "drag other countries into not-their-war". They support NATO's existence because it helps cement American primacy in Europe (expanding NATO was in this perspective seen as a way to prevent the newcomers in the alliance from falling back within Russia's sphere of influence and perhaps abandon democracy -- note that neoconservatives were not the only ones to adopt this line of thinking, though). and because it serves a purpose with regards to the political legitimization of certain actions taken in the pursuit of U.S. foreign policy objectives, the expansion being therefore useful regarding the political support US actions may receive from Central and Eastern European countries. In this perspective, NATO is much more useful on the political level than on the military level -- when it comes to the kind of military interventions you're referring to, neoconservatives are much more at ease with going to war with ad hoc "coalitions of the willing" that are not as constraining as NATO (see for example how neoconservatives (and others) criticized the NATO "war by committee" in the case of Kosovo -- see Stewart Patrick's "The Mission Determines the Coalition”: The United States and Multilateral Cooperation after 9/11" in Bruce Jones et al. (2010), Cooperating for Peace and Security : Evolving Institutions and Arrangements in a Context of Changing U. S. Security Policy). NATO is simply not the kind of vehicle for "neoconservative foreign policy" that you're describing. Let's proceed by examining further the first of the two paragraphs I just quoted. On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: To a large extent NATO has always been an extension of the will of the US foreign policy ambitions, and was designed that way from the beginning. When you say "when has the US been forced into a war because of NATO?" you are missing the point. The US is the one that forces other countries into war. The 1990s saw some pretty imperialistic actions under NATO - most notably its involvement in Yugoslavia and somewhat in the Middle East, and a lot of these were simply blatant attempts to realign nations more closely with what the US would like. The years since then have been pretty similar, but Russia and China are a lot stronger than they were in that brief period of the 1990s and are much more capable of reacting and standing in the way of NATO than they were back then. The reaction of the US has been to meddle with the geopolitics of those countries by escalating conflicts that those nations have that existed, but have mostly been suppressed. Ukraine, Georgia, South China Sea, Chinese-Japanese land disputes, etc. Note that the military actions of NATO as an entity have been entirely in the post-Soviet era. However, the issue is that the US usually doesn't fight these wars itself - it uses Europe to fight those wars on its behalf. Note that Japan and the South China Sea countries in East Asia, and the EU in Europe, are the major parties that actually act to support US interests in the area - under military/economic coercion. Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to. Nevertheless, other countries get dragged into not-their-battle very easily and the NATO framework is to a large extent the means by which this occurs. The current refugee crisis is also a pretty significant not-their-battle that Europe has been dragged into, with rather substantial consequences. This paragraph contains several assertions that range from oversimplifications to complete distortions of reality. I won't delve into your use of "imperialistic" -- I find it analytically unhelpful and misleading, in particular when it comes to US involvement in the Bosnian war, but let's focus on the facts. First, can you tell me which "imperialistic" NATO actions in the Middle East in the 1990s you're referring to? The only two NATO missions in the region that I can think of are Operation Anchor Guard and Operation Ace Guard, through which some relatively minor NATO assets were sent to Turkey preventively in 1990-1991 in light of the possible threat posed by Iraq at Turkey's southern border after Saddam Hussein's invasion of Koweit. Next, your claim that it is the U.S. that started escalating conflicts that had "mostly been suppressed" in Ukraine, Georgia, the South China sea, and with regards to "Chinese-Japanese land disputes" is grossly inaccurate, especially since you're saying that the US-aligned parties are acting "under coercion". In Ukraine, although the U.S. supported the opposition which ousted Yanukovych, and although previously the Bush administration wanted Ukraine to join NATO (and in general the U.S. wanted Ukraine to open itself further to the West), it is nevertheless first and foremost the domestic opposition to Yanukovych that initiated the events of 2013-2014, and it is Russia that decided to use military force to invade the country. Erasing these actors' agency and the role they played in the escalation of the situation paints a very misleading picture of what happened. In Georgia, the Bush administration did train parts of the Georgian military and pushed for the country to join NATO, but it is still the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, who wanted and decided to use military force to bring Abkhazia and South Ossetia back under Georgian control, despite (perhaps too timid) warnings from U.S. officials -- and it is Russia that chose to respond with military force as well. Of course, in both cases, understanding how things got to where they are does require taking into account how the U.S. pushed to get both Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, and in general tried to draw them towards the West. Yet ignoring everything else to state that it is the U.S. that escalated suppressed conflicts is simply not accurate. As a side note, I'd like to add that one has to keep in mind that Ukraine and Georgia are sovereign states, and that the fact that Russia wants them to stay in its sphere of influence should not simply be taken as the legitimate baseline. Russia responding with military force to states slipping out of its sphere of influence through sovereign decisions makes Russia the party most responsible for escalation due to its own ambitions. In the South China sea, tensions have grown and escalated due to China's increasingly assertive claims to territories and waters. That the U.S. took a firmer position on the matter under Obama doesn't change the fact that the tensions were not dormant or "suppressed" but already increasing, and that it is China who is trying to change the status quo and who is escalating the dispute -- the U.S. is reacting to the developments, not instigating them, and it is privately trying to an extent to ease up tensions. Finally, blaming the U.S. for escalation in the Senkaku Islands dispute is nonsense. It is both Japan and China that recently took steps that led to increased tensions, and the U.S. has reacted by reaffirming its treaty commitment to the defense of Japan, and by continuing to fly its military planes normally in the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone despite the introduction in 2013 by China of restrictions on air traffic in the area. Again, pretending here that it is the U.S. that is escalating suppressed conflicts is simply not true. The final part of your paragraph in which you develop your claim that the U.S. is militarily/economically coercing European and Asian states into fighting the wars and fights of the US through NATO is even more divorced from reality. With regards to the situation in Asia, several Asian states have been hostile to Chinese ambitions in the South China sea for years, and they rallied behind the U.S. when it took a firmer stance -- not because the U.S. forced them to, but precisely because they saw the development as an opportunity to stand up to China (which had been pushing for bilateral discussions with each state) more easily. I'm also not sure of how you picture the role of the NATO framework with regards to the situation there. When it comes to European states participating in NATO interventions in and around Europe, your assertion is misguided as well. Let's begin with NATO's Operation Deliberate Force in 1995 in the Bosnian war. Your comment about European states fighting on the US' behalf, while the latter doesn't fight, is false -- the U.S. provided by far the most important share of the aircraft and resources used in the operation (see for example chapters 8 & 9 in particular in Col Robert C. Owen's (ed.) Deliberate Force - A Case Study in Effective Air Campaigning (2000) -- after the Dayton Accords, though, European states did send most of the NATO troops in the peacekeeping missions IFOR and SFOR in the area, but that was after the operation and not to engage in fighting). There was no use of military/economic coercion by the U.S. on its European allies either -- in fact, until the summer of 1995, the U.S. and Western European states had substantial disagreements and different positions on how to proceed in Bosnia with regards to the role of UN peacekeepers, to NATO involvement, and to the use of force by NATO. Only after the Srebrenica massacre, the London Conference of July 1995 and the following diplomatic efforts by U.S. representatives, did European leaders rally behind both the new plan put forward by the U.S. to get the parties in the conflict to reach a peace settlement (a plan that was welcomed by European leaders, who reacted positively to the new American leadership on the issue), and the military options and triggering mechanisms that the U.S. favored. Of course, some divergences remained, including during ODF itself, but the Europeans did not get behind the U.S. and participate in the NATO operation due to "military/economic coercion" at all. See for example, for the American perspective, Derek Chollet, The Road to the Dayton Accords -- A study of American Statecraft (2005), in particular chapter 2. Here are a few relevant scans: + Show Spoiler [p. 43] ++ Show Spoiler [p. 44] ++ Show Spoiler [p. 45] +I'll quickly quote here another post of yours: On October 02 2016 09:26 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2016 03:27 Sermokala wrote: Calling the prevention of a large scale genocide in yugoslavia as an imperialist action is pretty stupid. Europe didn't want to get their hands dirty in the most obvious post cold war problem they could solve so America had to stop the war before it really kicked off.
The rest of that I pretty much agree with, nato has become a way for the us to cover for europes lack of military in exchange for increased Us influence on the world. As much as euroes like to parrot around about being free from US influence they only have a choice between the US and Russia. One will cut off their natural gas in the middle of winter and watch your people freeze to death while blaming you for it. Yugoslavia was a mess of a country whose demise was quite likely. As with quite a few Eastern European countries, there was quite a bit of ethnic strife that made it quite hard to exist as a single country. Part of the reason the USSR even had such a substantial security apparatus was that there were quite a few conflicts within an unstable part of the world (though that apparatus did have a number of key weaknesses of note since it was established in a less sane and more paranoid environment). However, it is also true that NATO, in Yugoslavia as in multiple other countries in their operating zones, pushed to escalate those conflicts into civil war and to end those civil wars on terms more favorable to parties that were pro-Western. [...] I've already addressed other elements of this paragraph above, but that claim that "NATO [...] pushed to escalate [...] into civil war" the situation in the Balkans in the early 1990s is, to put it mildly, utterly false and unfounded. The document you linked to in your follow-up post does not support the assertion at all. That claim is pure deceptive anti-NATO propaganda. Let's now move to the NATO involvement of 1999 in the Kosovo war. Here as well, the U.S. was by far the most important contributor of military assets and resources to the operation (for example by deploying 700 of the 1055 total aircraft) -- see notably chapter two of the RAND study by John E. Peters et al. (eds), European Contributions to Operation Allied Force (2001). The authors point out that "although alliance and U.S. press releases during the operation recognized the contributions of all participating air forces, the truth was that the United States was shouldering a disproportionately large share of the effort" (p. 52). I'll mention here that the decision to proceed through NATO instead of using military force unilaterally was among other reasons based on the fact that the U.S.' European allies had troops on the ground in Bosnia which would potentially be facing retaliation. With regards to the NATO air campaign itself, the U.S. managed to get the Europeans on board through diplomacy, accommodating some of their demands and assuaging some of their concerns with regards to the possible use of force against Milosevic. Your claim that this was the result of "military/economic pressure" applied by the U.S. is therefore again wrong. See for example Ivo H. Daalder and Michael E. O'Hanlon's Winning ugly : NATO’s war to save Kosovo (2001). Here are a few relevant scans: + Show Spoiler [p. 72] ++ Show Spoiler [p. 73] ++ Show Spoiler [p. 74] ++ Show Spoiler [p. 75] +I'll add that one of the reasons European leaders decided to move forward with building the EU's Common Security and Defence Policy (formerly known as the ESDP) towards the end of the 1990s is precisely their frustration over their own inability to solve the crises in their own backyard without the U.S. intervening and leading the effort. This brings me to the third example of a major NATO intervention in the European area/neighborhood: the organization's involvement in the Libyan civil war. With regards to the burden-sharing among NATO members during the intervention, other NATO members (France in particular) shouldered a larger share of the military effort than in the previous two examples, yet the participation of the U.S. was still vital to the operation and the Americans were responsible for the largest percentage of troops & personnel involved (50,5%), of aircraft deployed (38,2%) and of sorties (29,5%), in addition to other contributions. Yet even this larger role of other NATO members doesn't support your assertion, considering that the U.S. did not coerce those states into intervening, or try to to get them to fight its war, at all -- in fact, it is largely France (Sarkozy) that spearheaded the push to intervene, and the U.S. that joined France and the UK in supporting military involvement (within the Obama administration, Rice and Power supported intervening, and they were eventually joined by Clinton). See for example Jeffrey H. Michaels' "Able but not willing -- A critical assessment of NATO’s Libya intervention", in Kjell Engelbrekt et al. (eds.), The NATO Intervention in Libya -- Lessons learned from the campaign (2014), pp. 20-22. In addition, NATO members that opposed/did not want to contribute to the operation (such as Germany and Poland) were not forced to do so at all. All of this is obviously not to say that the U.S. never tries to apply political pressure on its allies, but your claim simply does not resist scrutiny (and the same is true regarding NATO members' contributions to ISAF, by the way). I'd like to add that your sentence "Basically it's really hard to refuse the demands of a country that has a military force in yours and that you owe a lot of money to" reveals a deeply flawed understanding of how discussions and negotiations work (and pressure is sometimes exerted) within/around NATO. I'm curious to see with which examples you'd substantiate that comment. On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: Now, what about the incidental effect of the alliance, the newly found unification of Europe? Well to put it simply, it's already happened. The EU may or may not survive - the current structure involves more powerful EU nations exploiting weaker EU nations and very adamantly refusing to change - but the idea of a European economic union will almost certainly survive. The security alliance may not - frankly, most countries are not inherently aligned with US interests on international matters. Britain is (the "special relationship" is a strong cultural closeness that has been acknowledged for well over a century), but France, Germany, and most of the rest of Europe are not particularly so and often diverge from US interests. France, in fact, while being in NATO also sought to, in the event of war with the East, establish its own "separate peace" and as such developed a lot of its own military/nuclear capability. Germany is still fearful of appearing to be the Nazis again and has deliberately crippled a lot of its potential to be a powerful military nation. Turkey is... Turkey. Though they may have some willingness to comply with the FP ambitions of the US at present, a consistent divergence in FP ambitions is very apparent and if the US abuses its favorable political arrangement then it will slowly but surely degrade the viability of the alliance. I won't repeat what I wrote in the beginning of my post with regards to the birth of the EU, but this is honestly a collection of clichés and superficial comments on the state and evolution of relations between European states and the US in matters of foreign policy and NATO cooperation. For example, it ignores France's gradual turn towards NATO in recent years (including since it rejoined NATO's integrated military command structures in 2009), notably with respect to how the organization is viewed among both civilian and military officials (the evolution has been fueled recently to a substantial extent by French disillusion with regards to the CSDP, in particular since its intervention in Mali -- as a side note, the effects of the Brexit on the CSDP will be interesting to follow when it comes to the position of France on the CSDP's potential), and it oversimplifies matters with respect to "national interests" and how they align or not (in particular regarding the UK-US relationship). On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: So in a sense, it is very true that NATO is obsolete. Its original goal - to contain the geopolitical threat of a unified communist opposition - is not the threat it was feared to be. At present, it is to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy. It's a very short-sighted approach that will undermine the existence of an alliance which, given valid cooperation with Russia, China, non-member allies, etc., can be very effective as a means to fight terrorism and enforce non-proliferation. Terrorism is an obvious threat, not just because people die in terrorist attacks but because the existence of terrorism strongly destabilizes the region where the terrorists operate, and nuclear proliferation just increases the danger that stupid countries without good nuclear policy start a nuclear war. Terrorism really does require international cooperation; if one side fights the terrorists but some other side supplies them, then the terrorists usually win one way or another. Non-proliferation also requires rather unified cooperation because the best way to convince a nation to abandon nuclear ambitions seems to be to show them that the rest of the world isn't really willing to offer them the means to do so.
So, after all that, let's get back to Drumpf. He did make the very valid observation that NATO in its current form is obsolete. It's a rare observation and not one made by many politicians, or any mainstream ones at all for that matter. It's so strongly against the current established system that it's generally political suicide to push for that position. To a large extent, having a strong military is a very good thing - the military is very good at pushing some genuinely valuable technological innovation, and also paves the way for a lot of very useful economic developments (e.g. Silicon Valley started from a very substantial military investment, the current Russian IT boom is very military-derivative). The problem, however, is that in the wrong hands, more military means more war. This is the entire idea of "beware of the military-industrial complex" which is just the observation that while the military is a good thing, it's often tied to more war. The idea that NATO in its current form is "obsolete" is nonsensical and ignorant (and recognizing this does not even require supporting the existence of the organization). You seem to be unaware of the evolution NATO has gone through since the end of the Cold War, and of the multiple purposes served, and programs implemented by, the organization. First, although the Soviet Union no longer exists, NATO remains a fundamental deterrent against any armed aggression against one of its member states, and any menace to their territorial integrity. This also makes it that much more difficult for non-member states to effectively use the (veiled or not) threat of armed aggression against any NATO member state to influence its policies. With regards to Russia, while current tensions have not reached some of the levels that characterized much of the Cold War, Eastern European states that are part of NATO are still more than supportive of the existence of the alliance and of its charter's article V. Deterrence against armed aggression remains relevant today. In addition, the nuclear umbrella provided by NATO member states with nuclear capabilities (the U.S. in particular) means that non-nuclear member states benefit from nuclear deterrence without having to acquire nuclear weapons themselves. I'll mention here that NATO has also been active in the development of a ballistic missile defense program to protect Europe. With regards to the two topics you mention, nuclear non-proliferation and terrorism, NATO is already active on both fronts. The organization cooperates with both individual states and international organizations (such as the EU, through its IcSP and INSC instruments in particular) to avoid the spread of WMDs, and monitor and secure existing weapons and materials. With respect to terrorism, the organization facilitates intelligence-sharing and shared assessments, and contributes to the strategic analysis of threats. It was obviously directly involved in counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency efforts on the ground through ISAF, and provides counter-terrorism expertise to member states and partner countries. It also facilitates the allocation and deployment of capabilities to actively combat terrorist groups. In short, it is already doing what you said it should be doing (except if I'm not mistaken you'd like Russia and others to be directly involved). To pick up on what I just mentioned, the NATO framework is obviously very useful in facilitating the rapid multilateral deployment of military forces both within the borders of its member states and beyond them (in this respect, the organization has evolved since the end of the Cold War and has devoted a large part of its operational focus on deployment beyond its initial geographical scope), thanks to the numerous benefits it brings at all levels and stages of troop mobilization and deployment. The alliance is in addition of particular value with regards to the issue of interoperability between the armed forces of its member states. The application and adoption of NATO standards, and the development of equipment interoperability, has been and continues to be of enormous importance to facilitate how the military assets of member states can function together. This is true as well of the NATO education, training, exercises, and evaluation programs designed to ensure that the armed forces of member states are capable of cooperating effectively and engaging militarily together. NATO is also very active in developing capabilities and coordinating efforts in the area of cyber defense, and it is working with partner states and international organizations at different levels in relation to the issue. Other missions and areas of activity include anti-piracy efforts (in particular around Somalia), the monitoring of important energy supply flows, recent initiatives pertaining to the role of women in peace and security efforts, scientific research activities in various domains, and plenty of other activities that I'm not going to be able to list here. As I mentioned above, NATO also engages in partnerships, dialogues, and in cooperation in general with various non-member states and international organizations, sometimes through institutionalized structures. It allows the U.S. and member states to make use of this security & defense network of cooperation when relevant in their exchanges with those non-NATO actors. NATO can also provide expertise and guidance to prospective members or interested states when it comes to institutional frameworks and practices pertaining to civil-military relations (in order to help those states cement a civilian control of their military) or other similar issues, as well as regarding practices in civil emergency planning and the consolidation of " civil preparedness". It's impossible to be exhaustive here, so I'll limit myself to these few examples, but the bottom line is that NATO has been and continues to be extremely valuable to its member states in various domains related to security, defense and foreign policy. NATO continues to serve their security interests in many respects, and it is therefore not obsolete at all (and this is again not to say that there cannot be legitimate criticism of, or debate over, the functioning, programs, or actions/interventions of the organization). And while cooperation and partnerships with non-NATO members are encouraged as I mentioned, NATO cannot be expected to completely ignore the tensions that exist with some states such as Russia, given Russia's behavior in recent years in Ukraine, given the state of the relations between several NATO member states and Russia, and given the fears shared by some in NATO, in particular among Eastern European states, over possible future destabilization efforts by Russia on the latter's periphery. On October 02 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: Unfortunately, Drumpf went after a rather minor issue: other countries "taking advantage" of the US in their nations. Yes, it is true that the US does a lot of the military heavy lifting for many nations, but this is by design. Yes, there are some nations that get more than they put into NATO, not in security but simply in the form of monetary infusion from servicing American military personnel within their country. But a lot of the US "heavy lifting" is by design, and the US is wealthy enough that it's really not economically painful for it to keep up its military involvement as it is now. The arguments against this point are easy to make because he's wrong about how to go about reducing NATO. Still, he does deserve credit for being one of the only people to acknowledge that the current framework of NATO is wrong and it needs to reform.
Maybe Drumpf will pave the way for a more level-headed politician to address the proper issues, or maybe he will undermine the entire idea of reforming NATO based on more realistic goals. The risk of not doing so is to lead countries away from the current security structure into one that is more dangerous for the world - while there is absolutely a lot of benefit to a multipolar world (a unipolar power is a dangerous exercise in arrogance), there really is a lot of benefit in preventing every strong nation from clashing over political interests and for that there needs to be a framework for encouraging cooperation, and Drumpf's plan would undermine that. The risk is that Drumpf might undermine the entire idea of reforming NATO by association with stupidity. It's always hard to know how things like this will play out - historically, both have happened. Personally I think that Drumpf's position really lets people know that there is a strong underlying sentiment that NATO needs reforming, and that some politicians will be able to push for that in a more realistic manner, so I do give credit to Drumpf for acknowledging issues of importance. NATO has been evolving and going through reforms since the end of the Cold War. The recent Wales and Warsaw summits, for example, marked shifts in focus from those that came before them. NATO isn't supposed to be a worldwide forum to foster cooperation between every state, it is a military/security alliance. You seem to be misunderstanding what that implies and the kind of cooperation that it allows for, precisely because it is not some kind of OSCE (or UN) variant. NATO member states are not being "led away" from it -- it is rather the opposite that has been true in the last few years, and some partnerships are actually getting stronger (with Sweden and Finland, for example). Also, the existence of NATO is saving the U.S. a lot of money in different ways, and Drumpf doesn't know anything about NATO. *** To sum up, your post contains a substantial number of inaccuracies, distortions, and outright fabrications about NATO, its history, its past interventions, and its current state. Your comments on the influences behind U.S. foreign policy rest to a significant extent on caricatures and misleading generalizations. To be sure, there are plenty of legitimate debates that have been and continue to be had since the end of the Cold War over the continued existence of NATO, over its expansion, over some of the interventions it has conducted, over the challenges it faces (for example regarding the state of the armed forces of its European members -- both separately and collectively), etc. Yet for those debates to be fruitful, they require at least an understanding of what NATO currently does, how it works, and what it has done in the past. I'm not saying you're being purposely disingenuous when you're accusing NATO of being simultaneously "obsolete" and "to a large extent a vehicle for the execution of neoconservative foreign policy", but at the very least your post betrays both a heavy bias and a fundamental lack of understanding of the subject matter. And that's unfortunate, especially considering the very rude comment that you recently addressed to Plansix. If you would like to examine these issues further, however, I can send you some additional references, as well as electronic copies of a few of the sources that I cited in this post.
Nice work. Quite informative.
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No reasonable person expects to read that mountain of text, we aren't here to propose our master's thesis, this is a video game forum. If I wanted to educate myself on NATO, I would rather read a primary source/textbook, personally. Seeing the petty revival of old arguments for the sake of proving one right and the other wrong is just as childish. Let it go bros.
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On November 01 2016 01:36 farvacola wrote: And LegalLord waves the white flag, as expected. Way to wuss out, though I'm sure someone can join you in short order as they too tacitly admit that they don't actually read the posts they comment on. Kwizach even provided the counterpoint to every tired forum debate escape hatch you listed. If I had to guess, less than 5% of kwizach's monstrous post is actually on point in addressing LegalLord's main contention that NATO is somewhat outdated in its current form. Of course he shouldn't respond.
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