The Free World Charter - Page 52

On May 14 2012 08:33 Ottoxlol wrote:


In this thread pls spell it tread.

I love VP, he's like a twisted caricature of everything that's wrong with this world. I think he's very young, but going to be a great politician.

Changing from an ownership to access system would not, in and of itself, decrease the amount of gas used.

Yeah it's sad when people use the tool of peaceful protest for their own greed

What if several people want to live in an area, or want to have material things that there is not enough of for everyone to get a fair share? Also what exactly is this static identity?

On May 14 2012 06:22 -fj. wrote:
Ok, because I thought it would be interesting, I went and ran the #s on the experiment i was talking about earlier.





The trend for the price of a barrel of crude oil, by year, is 0.965250965x - 1870

The trend for millions of registered cars by year is 27.3x - 53859.4

One car for every 4 people means ~2 billion cars

2 billion cars in millions of cars is 2000

By intercepting the trend for cars by year, we find that we should have 2000 million cars in 2047.

So, if the population keeps constant (big if here), we will have one car for every family in 35 years.

Now intercept the price of oil trend at year 2047. Oil will cost 105.8$ per barrel adjusted for inflation.

That means we would be drilling for oil from reserves that are harder to get at then the current ones. Most of the "bad" reserves that are around now, which people are considering drilling into, are like 1.5 to 2 times as expensive to get at, or 2 to 4 times if you take the ecological devastation into account. And most alternative fuels are 5 to 10 times more expensive (inefficient) than current oil drilling.

Now, of course, I think most of us on TL don't come from one car families of 4. We probably have our own car and no family, or we have a family with several cars. 1 car per person. Let's do it. Or we could call it one flying car per family. Whatever.

8 billion cars assumes no population growth, and it is -> 8000 million cars.

We will have 8000 million cars in year 2268 at the rate things are going.

In year 2268 oil will cost 319 dollars per barrel.

That means we will have to drill for oil in even worse spots, causing even more ecological damage and requiring 3 times more work to be done. If we use alternative fuels we will have to work 15 to 30 times as hard. If alternative fuels increase in efficiency by a factor of 5, we will still have to work 3-5 times harder to sustain this. I don't know about you but I don't think any mechanization can increase our productivity by 3-5 times what it already is. Plus, where are you getting the energy to do that if you are already spending it on making everybody wealthy?

So even though this is a rough estimate, I hope it demonstrates the principles of the limits to how wealthy humans can be, as imposed by our natural resources.


CAVEATS:

yeah i know that for this to be a legit analysis, it would need more metrics, it would need more data, and it would need the data to span the same time scale, but I just wanted to make a point, which is that as the amount of wealth increases, the difficulty getting more also increases. What the weed-smoking ron paul officianados who created this video don't understand is that the resources of the earth are limited and we are already pushing them farther than we should with how much wealth we have now.


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