EPTStill sitting flat as a result
Trading thread - Page 10
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3578 Posts
Still sitting flat as a result | ||
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/6qjmU.png) strategies still running strong, the original ones i posted at least. lost 70 on the new set of strategies i was running. i think ill move them to simulation until they have a few weeks of results. | ||
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3578 Posts
Fwiw, snp is testing the 1220-1225 level for the THIRD time - i've got a short here with an extremely tight stop purely for that reason When stuff gets too high and the bears are ready to move in, i'll be moving in with them But for now, no point fighting the upward trend. I'm not gonna go long cause things can blowup at any second though good luck next week guys | ||
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3578 Posts
![[image loading]](http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/3038/12008eweekly.png) 2008 ![[image loading]](http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/43/2011weeklychart.png) today Do these look familiar to you? | ||
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Ingenol
United States1328 Posts
Thanks! | ||
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3578 Posts
See how the charts react to stuff that happens. First you need to understand why markets do what they do fundamentally If the dollar goes up, what does that to do gold? If we have a recession, what does that do to everything else etc. What kinds of economic happenings would affect markets in what kinds of ways? Understanding trading products is not too important - they are just ways of isolating what you want out of a trade First you need to understand how things affect each other - and then eventually you become more experienced and develop views and opinions on what will happen, and how that is going to affect markets | ||
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johngalt90
United States357 Posts
On October 16 2011 08:36 Ingenol wrote: Can anyone give me some tips for getting started in trading? So far I've just been learning about options and various simple and more advanced (iron condor, etc.) strategies. I'm a total, total, total, complete, I-had-no-idea-what-an-option-was-15-days-ago newbie, so I'm looking for advice on learning strategies, etc., and trying to focus my studies. Thanks! My advice to you is do tons of reading and seek to understand as much as possible about economics, accounting, finance, etc. I'd start with understanding the equities market before jumping into options and other derivatives. Derivatives are for the most part pretty advanced trading mechanisms that properly harnessed can mitigate risk as well as expose you to more (leveraging). Secondly anyone who tells you they have a surefire strategy to make money in markets are lying or doing something illegal. If you want to win big go the casino. given todays economic climate you will probably have better odds at a craps table. lastly... Their really isn't any good reason to be in equities (and their derivatives) right now, With the poor conditions in europe volatility is too high and the outcome of europe is still unpredictable. Why would you want to be in equities when most investors will tell you they are trying to liquidate and wait for greener pastures. The market is so volatile and rallies and selloffs so sudden that you could leave your computer to take a piss break and be back and see everything deep in the red. Not only is the volatility high but the risks are systemic meaning you can't engage in stock speculation when the stocks are all going the same directions due to news from the eurozone or bad economic data from the fed. If you are insistent on starting up now buy stocks that are yielding large dividends and are consistent solid earners (for now). Companies like McDonald's, coke, etc. I personally like amazon right now as a real solid long-term investment, while the fire may or may not be succesful, though i think it will. amazon has shown that at 200$ a tablet they can be very aggresive with their pricing something you like to see in a company for long term growth. If someone were to ask you why you chose that stock you should be able to tell a bit about the company and what about that company you believe will make you money. I have a friend who once told me he bought 20 shares of apple stock "because its apple." This logic is bad and will eventually put you at the wrong end. fortunately for my friend he made money on that apple investment from solid quarters and explosive ipad sales. But his initial investment was based in emotions and percieved faith not solid fundamental or technical skills. What if apple crashed like they did in the 90's my friend would have never been able to have seen that coming either. he gambled. You probably already know this too but never put all your money in a couple stocks (especially ones that are all the same sector: (biotech, tech, commodities etc.) you are exposing yourself to a lot of undue risk by doing this. lastly the best tip "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered." Most helpful thing anyone ever told me. | ||
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3578 Posts
Either way it did hit the resistance i expected Whatever it was an ultra-tight stop anyway Still waiting for the big one in 2-3 weeks time | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
I was thinking of doing a long +5, -10% butterfly spread on something like transports. Does that seem reasonable? It seems what I'm betting on in that case is volatility, and I can achieve an arbitrarily safe low-return given the width of my long spread. I'm sure you have some better more efficient ideas than my kitchen-sink attempt to reduce losses. Edit: Aww fuck. Since my portfolio is so small, I have to pay retardedly large fees for such advanced trades, so my arbitrarily safe low-return has a starting negative value that I can't break even from unless volatility goes to 0, which is not going to happen cuz of the euro zone.  | ||
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3578 Posts
On October 18 2011 07:32 Gummy wrote: Yo Vince, my diversified macro growth-targeted portfolio is getting wrecked by this Eurozone nonsense. I don't have the time or tools to do the stuff you're suggesting in this thread, but I was wondering if you had any low-maintenance 1-2month positions to suggest that would do well in a stagnant global economy. I was thinking of doing a long +5, -10% butterfly spread on something like transports. Does that seem reasonable? It seems what I'm betting on in that case is volatility, and I can achieve an arbitrarily safe low-return given the width of my long spread. I'm sure you have some better more efficient ideas than my kitchen-sink attempt to reduce losses. Edit: Aww fuck. Since my portfolio is so small, I have to pay retardedly large fees for such advanced trades, so my arbitrarily safe low-return has a starting negative value that I can't break even from unless volatility goes to 0, which is not going to happen cuz of the euro zone. Are you even allowed to short? For us people, i'd firstly do the following things a> find a way to get better liquidity in your portfolio. I feel sick already paying my (tiny) spreads with a spreadbetting account (like, usually 1-5 ticks of spread, 10 ticks for the more complex stuff) b> hold cash Imho, the best trade right now is hold cash if you cant short. The time to short will come in a few weeks, maybe a month, maybe two, who knows. It will come though But holding cash is a really good idea atm. Treasury bonds are also a pretty good idea | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On October 18 2011 08:42 BrTarolg wrote: Are you even allowed to short? For us people, i'd firstly do the following things a> find a way to get better liquidity in your portfolio. I feel sick already paying my (tiny) spreads with a spreadbetting account (like, usually 1-5 ticks of spread, 10 ticks for the more complex stuff) b> hold cash Imho, the best trade right now is hold cash if you cant short. The time to short will come in a few weeks, maybe a month, maybe two, who knows. It will come though But holding cash is a really good idea atm. Treasury bonds are also a pretty good idea Sweet. I will take this under advisement! | ||
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3578 Posts
Jesus markets really hate me <<< master of buying high and selling low Looks like im back to waiting like this ![[image loading]](http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/160/hungrybear.png) | ||
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
On October 19 2011 19:00 BrTarolg wrote: FFFUUU dollar fakeout Jesus markets really hate me <<< master of buying high and selling low Looks like im back to waiting like this lol this week ive lost a little too, thought my winning streak was coming to an end soon | ||
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Mobius_1
United Kingdom2763 Posts
Anyhow, got a question about technical analysis, what kind of time frames are useful? I mean, would you trade based on a pattern that lasts several months/1 year/several years? | ||
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scaban84
United States1080 Posts
On October 20 2011 15:06 Mobius_1 wrote: Started trading seriously last week, had a small portoflio that I checked on once in a while of Chinese blue chips, now doing more active trading, and getting mostly shafted by the crappy Chinese stock exchange. (At least I didn't get in when Shanghai index was at 6k haha) Anyhow, got a question about technical analysis, what kind of time frames are useful? I mean, would you trade based on a pattern that lasts several months/1 year/several years? Why are you trading Chinese stocks. I've met many Chinese traders that have been burned by China Stocks. Why don't you move into a market that is in a bull market or at least poised for a move? They are a lot easier to trade. Also patterns don't really work in any time frame if they aren't supported by fundamentals, especially in thinly traded stocks. China's economy is mainly export driven. In this current state of USD deflation and global economic contraction I don't see China doing well. I think you should look into commodity currencies like the Australian dollar, or even gold. | ||
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
the speculation industry is awesome, mainly because there is such a variety in the ways people consistently make money. mobius, you probably want to stick to liquid markets with low costs when you are starting out. costs are a huge factor if you are going for technical strategies. | ||
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3578 Posts
On October 20 2011 15:20 scaban84 wrote: Why are you trading Chinese stocks. I've met many Chinese traders that have been burned by China Stocks. Why don't you move into a market that is in a bull market or at least poised for a move? They are a lot easier to trade. Also patterns don't really work in any time frame if they aren't supported by fundamentals, especially in thinly traded stocks. China's economy is mainly export driven. In this current state of USD deflation and global economic contraction I don't see China doing well. I think you should look into commodity currencies like the Australian dollar, or even gold. lol ---- And yes, the first thing you want to do is get your transaction costs down, this is free money Even with a good spreadbetter you can end up paying roughly the equivelant of 15 dollars a lot, maybe an IB would charge you 2-3 dollars a lot If you're at a prop desk you got a 4k desk fee but you'll probably be charged like 1 dollar~ a lot The thing is, the lower the costs you want, the more you'll have to commit For example, if i wanna do £10 a pip on dollar index, then i'll be paying like 6-9 pips in spread which can be fairly costly (60-90 or 150 dollars~ For the same amount on a commonly traded spread, it would be more like 1-2 pips (or 30 dollars~) There are some places where you can commit larger amount of money to get lower spreads for a retail trader This pretty much restricts all my strategies to having to be held for at least a few weeks Thats fine though, i like swing trading and looking at technicals If i ever move to a prop shop, for sure i'll be doing a lot of price action trading (with no desk fees and a company funded acc of course) --- In terms of technicals i'll look at moving averages, resistance support levels (i think this is important concept that everyone needs to know) and trendlines Rarely i'll look at fibbonaci | ||
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3578 Posts
Buy here, stop at 75.50 if you're gonna do the trade I expect there to maybe be a couple more days of downside due to potential europe news, but a rebound from there onwards | ||
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John Madden
American Samoa894 Posts
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3578 Posts
Still a long way from 75.50 so no problems For those of you doing euro, short at 1.3940 edit: changed my mind. Too much headline risk Cutting my losses, going to re-enter with a more reasonable size at a more reasonable level. Lesson learned. | ||
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