EPTTrading thread - Page 11
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3574 Posts
Buy the rumour, sell the fact They "come up with a deal" at frickin 4am, and its not gonna work If i was awake for market open, i'd short on the spike of sentiment over it happening, but i'm not awake, so i'm buying a put option here There is absolutely NO WAY that this level is going to rally much more or hold, all the technicals for reversal are in place But this is crazy, i really don't think this deal is gonna work but loooool | ||
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/DbrN6.png) strategies were down 112.58 last week but this week up 105.3 also secured a deal for an undisclosed amount of capital, but i cant show the numbers so ill stick with my personal account. im going to be focusing on futures instead of forex now. apparently its more technical. off topic: finance exams coming up and im going off to sydney for a holiday from tomorrow until a few days before the exams loool. i dont really know why im studying finance, its mostly useless (considering ive completed statistics). could have just gone to the university of wikipedia. | ||
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Enox
Germany1667 Posts
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bonifaceviii
Canada2890 Posts
On November 01 2011 05:29 Enox wrote: im pretty new to this whole trading thing and i have a basic question: as far as i see it, you only lose money when you sell stocks for less that you bought them. so my question is: why sell them? why not keep them and wait till they go up again, even if that takes some months? Traders are jittery, coked up lemmings, that's why. If do decent research and then buy and hold, generally you come out ahead in the long run (measured in years, not months). If you day-trade in risky IPOs generally you die at 40 of a bleeding stomach ulcer. | ||
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Enox
Germany1667 Posts
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Blitzkrieg0
United States13132 Posts
On November 01 2011 06:03 Enox wrote: isnt there a combination of day trading and holding? i still dont really see the point in selling a stock when you know that it will cost you money. in my naive, unexperienced opinion, id only sell the ones which made profit and keep the others till they make profit Then you have capital held up that could be used to produce profit. If the stock went down, but you need that capital to invest in something else (and it goes up) it'll be a net gain so you've made a good investment. | ||
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MMello
279 Posts
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
On November 01 2011 06:03 Enox wrote: isnt there a combination of day trading and holding? i still dont really see the point in selling a stock when you know that it will cost you money. in my naive, unexperienced opinion, id only sell the ones which made profit and keep the others till they make profit it all depends, many types of traders. im involved in automated day trading only There is no certainty that a losing stock will become profitable in a timely manner, therefore your capital may be locked up for too long and generate a low return per annum. You also might need to be unleveraged to sustain the drawdowns which is also pretty terrible and decreases your return p.a. | ||
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paralleluniverse
4065 Posts
Although I'd imagine it might be problematic or difficult to estimate some of the parameters needed in some of the models in finance theory. And have there actually been any studies on whether trading using these theories makes much of difference to trading on "gut feeling"? | ||
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
On November 01 2011 22:17 paralleluniverse wrote: I've often wondered, do people usually trade on "gut feeling" and watching news events or do they trade using real finance theory (e.g. diversified portfolios, risk-neutral pricing, mean-variance portfolio optimization, delta-hedging, time series forecasting etc)? Although I'd imagine it might be problematic or difficult to estimate some of the parameters needed in some of the models in finance theory. And have there actually been any studies on whether trading using these theories makes much of difference to trading on "gut feeling"? well there is no single method people use. traders generally dont get deeply involved with diversification as trading is different to investing. there is tons of data out there, optimisation (parameter calculation) is the easy part, finding a consistently profitable strategy is hard. as for 'studies'... none that i know of, academia does not widely accept that trading is viable. | ||
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whiteguycash
United States476 Posts
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3574 Posts
LOL so i went long USD/JPY last friday on suspection of intervention, CHA CHING. annoyed i woke up late though my exit was horrible but i caught most of the move (hey what you cant blame me for living in the uk lol) Referendum announcement has put dollar back into the picture after what could have been a completely failed daily cycle. I've been shorting EUR/USD recently on top of that, however i'm flat atm since i don't have a short term opinion on the next few days I expect NFP to be quite below consensus (60k or less) but i'm not gonna trade into it. | ||
KwarK
United States43444 Posts
On November 01 2011 05:29 Enox wrote: im pretty new to this whole trading thing and i have a basic question: as far as i see it, you only lose money when you sell stocks for less that you bought them. so my question is: why sell them? why not keep them and wait till they go up again, even if that takes some months? You lose money whenever you could have made money and didn't. There's no difference between a failure to sell high and a loss. Also tying up your capital waiting for an investment to show a profit stops you from investing elsewhere. A sunk cost doesn't make an investment any more virtuous, making back your losses doesn't make the money any more special than writing them off and making money elsewhere. | ||
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
On November 02 2011 04:02 KwarK wrote: You lose money whenever you could have made money and didn't. There's no difference between a failure to sell high and a loss. Also tying up your capital waiting for an investment to show a profit stops you from investing elsewhere. A sunk cost doesn't make an investment any more virtuous, making back your losses doesn't make the money any more special than writing them off and making money elsewhere. I dont really agree with that portion. It depends on your model. the further you predict into the future, the more noisy it gets. therefore a good variance reducing strategy is to have reasonably close targets. this also means you will often miss the majority of the move. but who cares? if you make money consistently you dont care what happens afterwards | ||
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
i have live orders but some traders are staying out until the referendum decision has come out | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia13295 Posts
It too overly dramatic to say the banking system of many countries will go kaput if Greece is but the first domino to fall? I have a portfolio and am wavering on whether or not to exit. I'm loathed to sell in a downturn, but am concerned it could get a whole lot worse. | ||
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
ever considered hedging? | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia13295 Posts
My portfolio is still providing solid dividends, but that won't last if the world go GFC mach II. | ||
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TheLOLas
United States646 Posts
On November 01 2011 05:33 bonifaceviii wrote: Traders are jittery, coked up lemmings, that's why. If do decent research and then buy and hold, generally you come out ahead in the long run (measured in years, not months). If you day-trade in risky IPOs generally you die at 40 of a bleeding stomach ulcer. HaHa I couldn't stop laughing. I think that it is important for a person to hold on to their stock for a long time. Eventually after a market cycles through for a while they will eventually be up. And if the world ends you won't need your money anymore so you might as well risk it. | ||
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