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current positions: (updated)
So lets see how my predictions turned out then...
![[image loading]](http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/3681/predictionsf.png)
Starting with gold - break the 1700 level, then hit the 200MA and jump back up tick
Stoxx - false rally and come off hard tick
USD - touch 200MA, have rally of lifetime, tempeorary swing low to add to longs tick
So for those of you following this and trading with me, congratulations you are now swimming in money!
Well, i am at least.
But seriously, if you have a pension fund or savings that follow stocks, liquidate it now into cash or safe bonds or something. Don't tell me i didn't warn you!
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After seeing a few economics and other threads pop up about the economy etc, and being vastly dissappointed at the quality of them (random arguments about nothing, major conspiracies about NWO lol), i wanted to open a thread where people can put their money to their mouth.
Please note that as a disclaimer, trading, spread betting or other similar financial activities are RISKY and should only in general be done with the advice of a professional. Anything you see in this thread is the personal opinion of users only and should NOT be taken as trading advice. I am not responsible if you lose money for other peoples bad decisions or advice!
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I've been interested in trading for a long time, in particular, i see it as a culmination of understanding of economics, psychology, mathematics and political science.
I don't trade to make money, i only do it to express my views about the markets and how it moves. Eventually yes, one day i would like to trade to make vast sums, however i am a long away off that.
I personally do not "day trade" - i believe these are clever ways of you making as many bets as possible and basically paying the spread each time. The positions i take can be for all sorts of reasons - some long term, some short term, some (very) short term.
Whenever i make a trade, i do so because i've compiled a list of reasons, either supporting or rejecting a view i have on the market.
In particular, i'll keep looking at the news, what information is coming out, and constantly reassess my view, and as a result, my position to what i feel about the current market.
You don't neccessarily have to be an active trader to post in this thread (i certainly don't make much money out of it!) - but it would be good to know what your experience is when you post.
I've created this thread for people to share their specific views and trade ideas in the market. I have NOT created this thread so that people can argue whether the fed is controlling the world or whether its all a big conspiracy to take over our lives.
So go ahead, post your trade ideas, your current positions. It would be good to hear specifics (levels, maybe even limits and stops) - tell us WHY you have done a particular trade.
Other forums tend to be full of bots advertising their companies and full of trash in that it rarely has peoples actual opinions in it. Trading is about information gathering, and i'd like to hear your actual views.
note: later i might post some useful resources as to how to form your own opinions and general "rules" of trading - though these are usually things you can just find online or whatever
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Can you explain what you mean by you trade to express your views??
also, i'm curious why you'd do gold over silver if you're not clunkin down serious change. I'm pretty sure both will go up a bit more. Just make sure you're strapped when you go to cash in because the world will probably be ending 
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On September 14 2011 05:02 Hawk wrote:Can you explain what you mean by you trade to express your views?? also, i'm curious why you'd do gold over silver if you're not clunkin down serious change. I'm pretty sure both will go up a bit more. Just make sure you're strapped when you go to cash in because the world will probably be ending
I trade to basically keep my brain fresh. I just have a passion for trying to understand and follow markets.
By making trades i am basically putting (a small) amount of money to where my mouth is. If my views are correct, i make money, if they are wrong, i lose money.
In terms of gold - firstly i use spreadbetting platforms so there is no issue in terms of the nominal amounts i am buying - you can control your leverage to exactly dictate how magnified your wins or losses may be per point move in gold or silver.
That isn't the only reason though - i do gold because everyone is focusing on gold and there is more speculative money in it. In a way, i understand gold better than i do silver.
If banks really are dumping gold - there is only a limited amount they can hold the price down since gold is finite unlike money. I believe markets are going to turn out VERY ugly in the next few weeks so the best way to trade this view is to long gold.
Silver has a lot of other aspects to it, for example, it is also used as an industrial metal. These are thing's i don't want to factor into my view, so it would be best for me to avoid silver in that case.
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So why exactly will gold be worth anything if the economy completely collapses? Gold has no inherent value in an emergency. It only has the value given to it by society, just like paper currency. In a complete economic meltdown, I would expect gold to be fairly useless.
How is your gold stored? I assume if it's intended to be a hedge against economic disaster, you have physical possession of it, yes? Otherwise, how do you intend to collect it when you need it?
And no, I'm not trolling, I seriously want answers to these questions, although I doubt they'll make sense.
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On September 14 2011 05:20 JingleHell wrote:
So why exactly will gold be worth anything if the economy completely collapses? Gold has no inherent value in an emergency. It only has the value given to it by society, just like paper currency. In a complete economic meltdown, I would expect gold to be fairly useless.
How is your gold stored? I assume if it's intended to be a hedge against economic disaster, you have physical possession of it, yes? Otherwise, how do you intend to collect it when you need it?
And no, I'm not trolling, I seriously want answers to these questions, although I doubt they'll make sense.
In an apocalyptic, zombies invade, etc.... scenario yeah you have a point. Going long on gold tends to be the right move since it has historically anti-correlated with inflation. Given the Federal Reserve's behavior regarding markets and given the stability of the economy, inflation is a pretty plausible bet. So to make money off of inflation, you go long on gold.
What BrTarolg was talking about, betting on spreads, is you can combine puts and calls to essentially bet that the price of an asset or equity will fall into a targeted range.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_(options)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bull_spread
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bear_spread
These 3 spreads are the most common since you're essentially having a very controlled bet that the price is going to be above an amount, below another amount, or between two values. Another possible spread is like the reverse butterfly, where you bet that the price ends up not in an interval.
When you trade in gold, you typically trade using options or futures. If you're doing any kind of real trading it would be absurd to actually buy the physical yellow metal.
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On September 14 2011 05:20 JingleHell wrote:
So why exactly will gold be worth anything if the economy completely collapses? Gold has no inherent value in an emergency. It only has the value given to it by society, just like paper currency. In a complete economic meltdown, I would expect gold to be fairly useless.
How is your gold stored? I assume if it's intended to be a hedge against economic disaster, you have physical possession of it, yes? Otherwise, how do you intend to collect it when you need it?
And no, I'm not trolling, I seriously want answers to these questions, although I doubt they'll make sense.
In a total economic meltdown, gold has value because people THINK it has value. It's no different from most currencies.
Certainly it might be that gold has a big crash because it is full of speculative money, though i feel that is quite a long way off - certainly in the current economic climate. I will have gotten out of my gold position by that point be sure of that!
If everyone thinks it has value then you will be sure i will be there to buy it all the way up, and sell it when everyone thinks it has no value. Certainly this is a good way to make a lot of $$$ (the buy low sell high strategy)
Then it could be the next thing, who knows. Speculate on corn or oil, that might retain its value relative to everything else maybe
If you genuinely, and truly believe that gold is totally worthless in an economic meltdown, now is a GREAT time to short gold. People are willing to give you thousands of $$$ which you can trade for useful things, and then you go "haha, gold is worthless now, you just gave all of that to me for free"
Like i said - you have a view - turn that into a trade idea and make money out of it.
Just FYI the way spreadbetting (or any kind of leveraged financial bet) works is that for every dollar move in gold, i either gain or lose x dollars/GBP/currency on my account. There is no physical trade or hedging (unless i am a huge client or smth)
edit: note, i DONT trade options or bull/bear/butterfly spreads. Spreadbetting means something else!
I do like doing a lot of research on options, however trading them requires ALOT of mathematical knowledge (in particular theres a whole range of stuff you need to know about - delta hedging, what all the greeks mean, volatility skew and smiles, implied volatility premiums etc.etc.) - this kind of stuff is for the absolute professionals only
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Ok, maybe my straightforward, analytical mind just doesn't function in the right direction to understand this...
You're telling me that to survive an economic meltdown, you buy a piece of paper that says you think gold will be worth a certain amount of money when that certain amount of money becomes worthless?
I mean, wouldn't investing in canned goods and a generator make more sense than buying something that has the potential to revert to being a shiny rock?
Bear in mind, these questions are coming from the rather practical mind of an ex-soldier, who thinks about food and water as priorities.
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On September 14 2011 05:30 BrTarolg wrote:Show nested quote +On September 14 2011 05:20 JingleHell wrote:
So why exactly will gold be worth anything if the economy completely collapses? Gold has no inherent value in an emergency. It only has the value given to it by society, just like paper currency. In a complete economic meltdown, I would expect gold to be fairly useless.
How is your gold stored? I assume if it's intended to be a hedge against economic disaster, you have physical possession of it, yes? Otherwise, how do you intend to collect it when you need it?
And no, I'm not trolling, I seriously want answers to these questions, although I doubt they'll make sense. In a total economic meltdown, gold has value because people THINK it has value. It's no different from most currencies. Certainly it might be that gold has a big crash because it is full of speculative money, though i feel that is quite a long way off - certainly in the current economic climate. I will have gotten out of my gold position by that point be sure of that! If everyone thinks it has value then you will be sure i will be there to buy it all the way up, and sell it when everyone thinks it has no value. Certainly this is a good way to make a lot of $$$ (the buy low sell high strategy) Then it could be the next thing, who knows. Speculate on corn or oil, that might retain its value relative to everything else maybe If you genuinely, and truly believe that gold is totally worthless in an economic meltdown, now is a GREAT time to short gold. People are willing to give you thousands of $$$ which you can trade for useful things, and then you go "haha, gold is worthless now, you just gave all of that to me for free" Like i said - you have a view - turn that into a trade idea and make money out of it. Just FYI the way spreadbetting (or any kind of leveraged financial bet) works is that for every dollar move in gold, i either gain or lose x dollars/GBP/currency on my account. There is no physical trade or hedging (unless i am a huge client or smth)
In a "total" economic meltdown, I doubt most people think gold would have inherent value. In the situation where inflation explodes, gold may have a lot of speculative value because of its historic role (e.g. bullion). But in terms of liquidity, cost of carry, intrinsic value (i.e. industrial use), gold would not be the money of choice in a zombie apocalypse. I'm thinking anything energy-related would be better.
On September 14 2011 05:33 JingleHell wrote:
Ok, maybe my straightforward, analytical mind just doesn't function in the right direction to understand this...
You're telling me that to survive an economic meltdown, you buy a piece of paper that says you think gold will be worth a certain amount of money when that certain amount of money becomes worthless?
I mean, wouldn't investing in canned goods and a generator make more sense than buying something that has the potential to revert to being a shiny rock?
BrTarolg is sort of using lay men's terms when he is talking about being right or wrong. When you buy a piece of paper that you think gold will be worth a certain amount of money, you are betting that other people will THINK that gold will be worth a certain amount of money. You can have views regarding the stock market or about zombie apocalypses, but ultimately the payoff of your bet goes through the channel of the price of that gold, which is determined only based on what people are willing to pay for it and sell it for. In a perverted example, you can live in a world of retards where you have insider information that a commodity X is going to explode in price because you know a hurricane is going to hit the main producer of X. You can still lose the bet if the hurricane hits, if everybody is retarded and the producers of X suddenly decide they are willing to sell for LESS.
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On September 14 2011 05:33 JingleHell wrote:
Ok, maybe my straightforward, analytical mind just doesn't function in the right direction to understand this...
You're telling me that to survive an economic meltdown, you buy a piece of paper that says you think gold will be worth a certain amount of money when that certain amount of money becomes worthless?
I mean, wouldn't investing in canned goods and a generator make more sense than buying something that has the potential to revert to being a shiny rock?
Bear in mind, these questions are coming from the rather practical mind of an ex-soldier, who thinks about food and water as priorities.
Indeed if you have this kind of view, you should certainly make a bet that is long useful, traded commodities.
I mean, there is nothing stopping you going long corn or agriculturals - one might say that is not such a bad trade right now
I am only expressing my own PERSONAL view, you don't have to believe it 
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I guess my issue with the whole concept of buying theoretical commodities vs. physical commodities is this: What good does your piece of paper do you when the green pieces of paper you can trade it for are suddenly only good for kindling?
In other words, if the dollar suddenly becomes federal issue toilet paper, what good does your thousands of dollars worth of gold you can't take possession of do you?
I wouldn't mind understanding, I just don't yet. Maybe I'm looking at too black and white of an economic situation. But it seems that if currency becomes useless, having something you can trade for currency would likewise be useless.
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On September 14 2011 05:41 JingleHell wrote:
I guess my issue with the whole concept of buying theoretical commodities vs. physical commodities is this: What good does your piece of paper do you when the green pieces of paper you can trade it for are suddenly only good for kindling?
In other words, if the dollar suddenly becomes federal issue toilet paper, what good does your thousands of dollars worth of gold you can't take possession of do you?
Because gold has an exchange rate to every currency, not just the dollar. If the dollar collapses and an OZ of gold suddenly costs 10 million dollars, it will still probably cost whatever it cost before in Euros (unless the Eurozone also collapses, which if the dollar collapses is probably pretty likely too).
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On September 14 2011 05:43 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On September 14 2011 05:41 JingleHell wrote:
I guess my issue with the whole concept of buying theoretical commodities vs. physical commodities is this: What good does your piece of paper do you when the green pieces of paper you can trade it for are suddenly only good for kindling?
In other words, if the dollar suddenly becomes federal issue toilet paper, what good does your thousands of dollars worth of gold you can't take possession of do you? Because gold has an exchange rate to every currency, not just the dollar. If the dollar collapses and an OZ of gold suddenly costs 10 million dollars, it will still probably cost whatever it cost before in Euros (unless the Eurozone also collapses, which if the dollar collapses is probably pretty likely too).
Yeah, but you're going to get ripped off by people in those other countries, because they can rip you off. Why should they give you what the gold is worth there when they can just wait until you're desperate to eat and give you half what the gold is worth?
Kind of like pre-union labor in the US. People who had jobs available didn't have to pay much, because the people they hired were willing to take anything, once they got hungry enough.
I think I'm just too cynical to see the value of this sort of thing for economic collapse.
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On September 14 2011 05:48 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On September 14 2011 05:43 Gummy wrote:On September 14 2011 05:41 JingleHell wrote:
I guess my issue with the whole concept of buying theoretical commodities vs. physical commodities is this: What good does your piece of paper do you when the green pieces of paper you can trade it for are suddenly only good for kindling?
In other words, if the dollar suddenly becomes federal issue toilet paper, what good does your thousands of dollars worth of gold you can't take possession of do you? Because gold has an exchange rate to every currency, not just the dollar. If the dollar collapses and an OZ of gold suddenly costs 10 million dollars, it will still probably cost whatever it cost before in Euros (unless the Eurozone also collapses, which if the dollar collapses is probably pretty likely too). Yeah, but you're going to get ripped off by people in those other countries, because they can rip you off. Why should they give you what the gold is worth there when they can just wait until you're desperate to eat and give you half what the gold is worth? Kind of like pre-union labor in the US. People who had jobs available didn't have to pay much, because the people they hired were willing to take anything, once they got hungry enough. I think I'm just too cynical to see the value of this sort of thing for economic collapse.
You seem to think there is no middle ground between a smoothly flowing economy and a zombie apocalypse. In a zombie apocalypse, nothing holds. Everybody is for themselves; that piece of paper is worth nothing.
In a case where the dollar inflates beyond usefulness, people in the US will just use other more stable currencies for trading. Much of Russia uses dollars, for example, to shield themselves from the instabilities of the Russian native currency.
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On September 14 2011 05:41 JingleHell wrote:
I guess my issue with the whole concept of buying theoretical commodities vs. physical commodities is this: What good does your piece of paper do you when the green pieces of paper you can trade it for are suddenly only good for kindling?
In other words, if the dollar suddenly becomes federal issue toilet paper, what good does your thousands of dollars worth of gold you can't take possession of do you?
I wouldn't mind understanding, I just don't yet. Maybe I'm looking at too black and white of an economic situation. But it seems that if currency becomes useless, having something you can trade for currency would likewise be useless.
Yes, in the case you describe, money is totally worthless.
But! This thread is about making money - sorry! I don't want to derail any further so i'm going to put up one of the trade ideas i've had for a bit
![[image loading]](http://img705.imageshack.us/img705/360/usdg.png)
My thought is to go long dollar at 7625.
In terms of technicals, its a pretty strong fibb level and on top of that its the 200 day MA, so i expect to see some strong support here
Last time we saw this was... 2008! In 2008 DOLLAR was at its all time 3 year low, and then began to consolidate and rocket skyhigh
This time i think we are seeing the same thing. Dollar at its all time low, and its consolidating, and we are seeing the beginning of its upswing. I think its totally superman rally in the last bunch of days has exhausted a bit, so i expect it to drop down through the 7700 level. Once it hits 7625 i'm going to go long again and i think it will start a new upwards cycle
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The great thing about this thread is you can look into past posts and find out just how wrong or right me or other people are!
Hopefully in a few months time i'll look back at these posts and pat myself on the back for making good trades haha
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On September 14 2011 05:50 Gummy wrote:Show nested quote +On September 14 2011 05:48 JingleHell wrote:On September 14 2011 05:43 Gummy wrote:On September 14 2011 05:41 JingleHell wrote:
I guess my issue with the whole concept of buying theoretical commodities vs. physical commodities is this: What good does your piece of paper do you when the green pieces of paper you can trade it for are suddenly only good for kindling?
In other words, if the dollar suddenly becomes federal issue toilet paper, what good does your thousands of dollars worth of gold you can't take possession of do you? Because gold has an exchange rate to every currency, not just the dollar. If the dollar collapses and an OZ of gold suddenly costs 10 million dollars, it will still probably cost whatever it cost before in Euros (unless the Eurozone also collapses, which if the dollar collapses is probably pretty likely too). Yeah, but you're going to get ripped off by people in those other countries, because they can rip you off. Why should they give you what the gold is worth there when they can just wait until you're desperate to eat and give you half what the gold is worth? Kind of like pre-union labor in the US. People who had jobs available didn't have to pay much, because the people they hired were willing to take anything, once they got hungry enough. I think I'm just too cynical to see the value of this sort of thing for economic collapse. You seem to think there is no middle ground between a smoothly flowing economy and a zombie apocalypse. In a zombie apocalypse, nothing holds. Everybody is for themselves; that piece of paper is worth nothing. In a case where the dollar inflates beyond usefulness, people in the US will just use other more stable currencies for trading. Much of Russia uses dollars, for example, to shield themselves from the instabilities of the Russian native currency.
Yes, I've seen this in action. The problem is, when you get the first influx of those currencies, you won't get full value for goods or services. Everybody will try to short people, because they have the currency with worth, so they can determine, locally, what goods and services are worth. And everybody will end up getting shorted by the "real" value of that currency, leaving them with virtually nothing.
Not trying to derail, just to understand. I see it for making money short term, but for long term, it doesn't really seem any more stable than any other theoretical.
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OP on your last trade you gave technical reasons, which I can't dispute, and also pointed to 2008 for the uptick. But don't you think the market wasn't able to price in the meltdown in 2008? I mean few people thought Lehman was actually going under. Whereas now, as soon as you see the 9.1% unemployment, the market tanks but not nearly as much as in 2008, because a lot of the fear is priced in. Where do you think a new spike in gold will come from? Are you trying to price in 10% unemployment for September?
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On September 14 2011 05:55 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On September 14 2011 05:50 Gummy wrote:On September 14 2011 05:48 JingleHell wrote:On September 14 2011 05:43 Gummy wrote:On September 14 2011 05:41 JingleHell wrote:
I guess my issue with the whole concept of buying theoretical commodities vs. physical commodities is this: What good does your piece of paper do you when the green pieces of paper you can trade it for are suddenly only good for kindling?
In other words, if the dollar suddenly becomes federal issue toilet paper, what good does your thousands of dollars worth of gold you can't take possession of do you? Because gold has an exchange rate to every currency, not just the dollar. If the dollar collapses and an OZ of gold suddenly costs 10 million dollars, it will still probably cost whatever it cost before in Euros (unless the Eurozone also collapses, which if the dollar collapses is probably pretty likely too). Yeah, but you're going to get ripped off by people in those other countries, because they can rip you off. Why should they give you what the gold is worth there when they can just wait until you're desperate to eat and give you half what the gold is worth? Kind of like pre-union labor in the US. People who had jobs available didn't have to pay much, because the people they hired were willing to take anything, once they got hungry enough. I think I'm just too cynical to see the value of this sort of thing for economic collapse. You seem to think there is no middle ground between a smoothly flowing economy and a zombie apocalypse. In a zombie apocalypse, nothing holds. Everybody is for themselves; that piece of paper is worth nothing. In a case where the dollar inflates beyond usefulness, people in the US will just use other more stable currencies for trading. Much of Russia uses dollars, for example, to shield themselves from the instabilities of the Russian native currency. Yes, I've seen this in action. The problem is, when you get the first influx of those currencies, you won't get full value for goods or services. Everybody will try to short people, because they have the currency with worth, so they can determine, locally, what goods and services are worth. And everybody will end up getting shorted by the "real" value of that currency, leaving them with virtually nothing. Not trying to derail, just to understand. I see it for making money short term, but for long term, it doesn't really seem any more stable than any other theoretical.
As OP stated. If money is worthless, there's not much to talk about. Let's continue this thread with the assumption that we are looking to make money.
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edit: lol too much gold - i wrote GOLD instead of dollar so i'll correct that. Maybe thats what confused you
You've got a good point - i think a lot of people didn't realise how bad 2008 was going to get.
I would say part of it is the market is currently very technically driven - HFT's and algos and speculators are running a large part of the show, so in a way right now isn't such a bad time to follow the technicals.
Part of it is i feel that governments and europe in particular are still trying to print the lie that "its all OK" and i'm willing to trade against them and take them up on it.
If we see 2008 all over again, then probably once things get into full gear then gold might lose a lot of its speculative value (buy the rumour sell the fact wee) but tbh i'm not totally sure
I'm not a professional in the market so my views certainly arn't perfect, but i do like putting them out there for critique
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On September 14 2011 06:20 BrTarolg wrote:
edit: lol too much gold - i wrote GOLD instead of dollar so i'll correct that. Maybe thats what confused you
You've got a good point - i think a lot of people didn't realise how bad 2008 was going to get.
I would say part of it is the market is currently very technically driven - HFT's and algos and speculators are running a large part of the show, so in a way right now isn't such a bad time to follow the technicals.
Part of it is i feel that governments and europe in particular are still trying to print the lie that "its all OK" and i'm willing to trade against them and take them up on it.
If we see 2008 all over again, then probably once things get into full gear then gold might lose a lot of its speculative value (buy the rumour sell the fact wee) but tbh i'm not totally sure
I'm not a professional in the market so my views certainly arn't perfect, but i do like putting them out there for critique
I'm skeptical of technicals for the very reason you gave. Speculating against fulltime speculators or algos that have instantaneous access to those technicals and instantaneous execution has a losing expectation. Like in SC, if you're playing a mirror build against Jaedong, you're going to have a very hard time.
I think the best way to make money is to have a founded, but contrarian viewpoint and put money behind that viewpoint. Hope you get lucky and think of something (or have access to nonpublic indicators! >_<) the algos don't take into account or take into account wrongly 
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-edit Oh you posted USD/Euro, okay that actually makes sense to me, since I'm betting on a lot of Euros being printed, etc. Altho.... the trade is saying the US will relatively print less dollars, which I dunno, QE3 baby!!!
What are your thoughts on the chance of collapse in Greece/Italy/Spain? Equally important is how big the contagion effect will be?
According to seekingalpha (http://seekingalpha.com/article/293152-europe-on-the-brink), Greece 10-yr yields are almost 20%, which is pretty ludicrous, but don't you think Merkel eventually HAS to bail them out? Germany can't risk the whole Euro collapsing because of a few countries.
Basically what I'm saying is that Germany will do what the US has been doing, guarantee debt and print a ton of money. This works for quite a long time. It will increase the value of Gold but spikes don't happen because of inflation, only sudden crisis. Were you planning on holding onto Gold for a while?
BTW I don't trade macro, I just try to look for value-bargains in this climate. I guess I believe in Fundamentals and think technicals are just coin flipping. I also think putting money in companies and letting them grow is better than assets with no intrinsic value.
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EPT
