I've had an extremely profitable week, i will put up screenshots of my trades a little later (different computer).
On another note I quote from an interview with peter brandt (one of the earliest hedgers)
"Samuelson kind of half justified it by saying “Well, random walk is true for the vast majority of money managers, and only a tiny handful are smart enough to beat the markets long term, so the theory might as well be taken as true.” But that still makes it grossly dishonest to go out and preach random walk as gospel, when he himself didn’t practice it."
The founder of random walk and efficient markets was an investor in commodoties corp. and warren buffet!
Pretty hilarious and a shame to all those efficient market theorists.
Short stoxx50 since 2150: continue shorting, no goal set yet Long dollar since 7625: continue long until minimum 81, look for a cycle reversal Short EUR/USD since 1.375 (i was a little late on this, but small position only) - minimum until 1.3, could go even to 1.2 in the long term. Keep an eye on drachma/eurozone unfolding Short gold since 1695 (broke the 1705 level - everyone is liquidating) - short term position, might take profit in a couple days
Here are my waiting positions long JPY 76.04 (almost made it there, went to 76.11. Would have went long if i was at a screen)
Here are my failed positions: Gold long at 1730, increased when it tested low 17xx and bounced - tanked to 1700, tested the 1705 and failed and so i reversed my position
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These are positions that i don't have personally, but i know some of my trader friends have on
long soybean 1300 (probably cancelled since it dropped to 1280) long what 630 long gold/silver ratio
I'll usually consider my time frame and goals with the strategy so that i don't lose more than 10-15% of my bankroll in one trade. Like, if i lose more than that, i entered at the wrong time/had bad risk management/set my levels too big etc.
There are some trades i make that tend to have very little downside (like the long dollar trade).
On September 26 2011 06:50 iansanew wrote: Hmm there was so much discussion when the thread didnt have enough content. Now that we only have quality content no one likes to chip in?
seems a little weird, maybe i should make a huge claim to get some opinions going.
returns of 100% per annum are real.
lol don't be so disappointed by weekend markets. Btw that looks like a very cool strategy. Whats with the timeframes? What are the main technical indicators you're looking at to initiate/close trades? (don't need to share too many secrets haha)
Tbh i find it very usual on TL if i manage to post something of actual substance then interest dies out fast. Regardless its good to see there may be a few real traders around, i'd love to hear opinions.
As of now, 24hr market open is usually quite tame, but eyes to keep open are CSI on tuesday. Currently i'm continuing to hold all of my positions. Also in terms of gold, i am keeping my position small, but i intend to short until the 200MA and i'll expect a rebound from there. I think this picture that another trader drew gives an accurate description of what i reckon it could end up like Whether gold really will decline past the 200MA i am not sure, but i am almost certain it will act as a heavy support.
there is a horizontal support level at 1550 which adds to the likelyhood of a bounce.
I use moving average conditions to determine entry, exit is just an optimised set distance away from the entry. i also use other filters for entry which are very important. all i can say is the strategies ive made so far all capture retracements, in the direction of the long and medium term trend.
the timeframe used up top are range bars. a new bar will form only if price moves a specified distance from the low or high of the current bar. eliminates time biases like tick charts and the bars are a lot more consistent (stable patterns).
Either way i'm out, i missed the opportunity to profit from a rally so i'm going to not touch gold again for a while, until maybe it hits 1700 mark again
Yeah I've been watching GLD for a while, and it seemed pretty clear that it wouldn't stay that high for long after the double peak. It will bounce back in the near future I'd bet. I feel the previous highest peaks were not very solid, so it could take a while to get back there and higher up. This analysis has been brough to you by a 1-week experienced future-trader, so don't sue me if you loose money for following it xD
I've been looking around for ways to invest in the trade market, but being in Spain, it seems rather difficult for me. There is nothing equivalent to GLD in our trade market (and there is where I'd like to start), but since you guys are not from the US either, I am wondering how do you do it. Do you have some american bank account and trade with that, or are there some other ways to do it from outside of the country?
Basically stocks had a HUGE rally today over the EFSF trying to come up with some magic drug to save the world. Personally, i think the plan fails on 2 reasons firstly there is no "life saving" plan secondly, the plan they are implementing isn't strong enough regardless
Dollar looks like to be consolidating a bit atm, so i'd say give it another day or two to lower. I might be adding to my longs at around 77.8-77.9 if it hits that area.
So market seems to be rallying on bullshit rumors that the world is going to be OK and its fine we will create a crazy debt money printing package to save everyone
For you traders that means that we are likely to see a little bit more of this short term rally, but it presents a very good opportunity for those of you who wish to enter a short. I would say within the next day or two is within a decent timing band to enter
For those of you long dollar, hooray! Dollar is keeping its strength through all of this bull and we are still very deep in the money. I'm still expecting it to consolidate slightly but overall we are still in huge profit since buying at the 200MA
wow nice one... but im watching eur strengthen against the usd by about 160 pips in the last 5 hours...
i just realised some sad news. range bars without tick resolution are slightly less accurate. even 1min resolution makes me a little uncomfortable. so in order to minimise my risk... im trashing the strategy posted above using range bars and going back to time charts. fortunately this was my alternative strategy:
10k contract size 81%success rate $21:$55 profit:loss ratio average $7.15 per trade profit profit factor of 1.69 (gross profit/gross loss) spread and slippage included. 612 trades (pretty decent sample).
this is actually better but i dont know why i preferred the psychological 1:1 ratio type stuff. lol traders mindset has an effect even in automated trading.
(incase anyone is confused, i have multiple eurusd strategies + this new one ill be trading next week)
On September 27 2011 23:25 Miniput wrote: Any recommendations on trading books?
Nice thread btw
from what the guys at the firm say,
#1 Trading in the zone- mark douglas.
#2 market wizards- jack schwager i think the guys name is.
i havent actually read any trading books, but these are highly rated.
@ender: you can trade using online brokers. trading with banks is a big no unless you intend to hold real assets and have voting rights to shares. and pay commissions until you are broke.
i would like to point you in the right direction for brokers, but i dont think i am allowed. definitely dont go with cmc markets they are turning into complete trash. their new platform cant even perform stop entry orders hahaha. when i started trolling their customer service asking why i cant perform such orders, they didnt even know you could enter with stop orders and kept thinking i was talking about limits.
most large brokers are alright for newcomers, when you grow as a trader some brokers will meet your criteria a lot better than others.
IGindex is the one i use, though etx give you 250£ of free money
Ok so i closed some of my shorts on the rally for stoxx and re-shorted at 2185.
Dollar taken a beating of course, so for those of you who arn't long dollar yet, sometime either near the end of today or tomorrow morning is going to be a reaaaly good opportunity for you
hmm fundamental analysis confuses me. why wouldnt it already be priced in? i believe in psychology and chart patterns generated by this more than publicly analysed fundamentals.
someone convince me otherwise! lol i believe in chart patterns more than fundamentals. if i go back 1 year and tell this to myself i wouldnt believe it.
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