EPTfundamentals of 2000 - tech stocks produce no income, but people irrationally buy anyway. short
Trading thread - Page 6
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3574 Posts
fundamentals of 2000 - tech stocks produce no income, but people irrationally buy anyway. short | ||
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
On September 28 2011 06:09 BrTarolg wrote: Fundamentals of 2008 - CDO's and random shit is overpriced. Just had to wait for the rest of the market (which is sometimes populated by noobs) to realise this fundamentals of 2000 - tech stocks produce no income, but people irrationally buy anyway. short ah yeah thats right, i get short sighted sometimes. too much brainwashing with efficient market theory lol | ||
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TheMusiC
United States1054 Posts
personally i like to base valuations and decisions on fundamentals more than technicals, but that is a point always up for debate. will post more later when i have time, good luck to everyone! | ||
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3574 Posts
Personally I am well hedged and I also had good risk management this time around, so i am currently handling my losses. I intend to hold, as fundamentally i am still extremely bearish on the market over the next month Dollar has tanked past its previous resistance level which is a worrying sign however, though it still has a long way to go before it tanks all the way to where i first bought Stoxx is now showing losses for me, although minor. I feel my upside is greater than my downside here, good risk management is currently saving my ass and i intend to hold most of my position However i AM reducing my position slightly since we are now breaking technical levels and there is a possible chance of a 100-200 tick rally further from here which would begin to breach my risk management - i intend to hold a position which can withstand that. As a result i'm rebalancing my book by reducing my stoxx shorts and increasing my dollar longs --- note: me and a ton of other traders think this rally is the biggest load of absolute BS This is what is known as "buy the rumour sell the fact" - market is rallying on a plan that isn't going to do jack shit and when facts come to light we expect a large selloff in the market | ||
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LostDevil
Fiji283 Posts
I am new at this. 24 years old and investing through my Roth IRA for the time being. Professionally I am in real estate and am quite knowledgeable about investing in commercial and residential real estate. I have liquid funds that I may want to turn to the stock market since deals in my area in real estate have slowed enormously due to factors I will elaborate on below and I have been getting good returns on my money simply trading obvious dips in the market. However, where does one begin to get to the level of you guys? It seems you are mostly into trading forex? I don't understand half the shit you guys are talking about. My financial knowledge, despite going to a top univ., is all self taught and mostly through the field of Real Estate. My stock knowledge is from reading the Intelligent Investor (not done with it yet) and watching CNBC at lunch most days recently. So.. not much knowledge. I frequent Seeking Alpha lately also. I only have two holdings right now in my IRA and they are Apple and Alcoa. Long on Alcoa and Apple I will sell whenever it spikes again as it went to 419 recently. I had bought at 333 earlier in the year and am happy with how it is progressing. Spurred on by the thread about the trader on BBC and my own fears in the market as seen through my eyes in real estate I want to take an active role in making money during the recession and the more than likely future double dip to come. If any of you are curious, despite any good news in the real estate markets that have come out in the past two days it is far from good overall. Until the administration and banks starts selling off troubled assets and stop letting people live in their homes for free without foreclosing on them we will not have a recovery of any sort. Short sales and loan mods are rarely successful due to banks not being adequately staffed and trained in these matters. I handle REO (bank owned properties) assets for a living so we deal directly with banks on these things and they are terribly slow right now. Since the robo signing fiasco and the moratorium on foreclosures last year the market has slowly crawled to a halt when it comes to foreclosures. While it may seem good to some that there are fewer foreclosures it isn't good as people still aren't paying their mortgages. We made a killing last year and us along the with the other top rated brokers in our area are all scared to death at how slow it has become. No one has seen this in a long long time and I am surrounded by the most experienced brokers in my area. Anyways, that is my tidbit contribution so far and it may help some of you predict where the markets will go. If you have any advice for someone getting into it at this time and would like to point me in a direction on where to start let me know. Also, if you are mostly involved in forex where is a good place to start learning about those markets and how they are operate? All i've heard about forex is that it is quite risky unless you are very knowledgeable. But then again, so is almost every investment. Any direction would help. Thanks | ||
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Jago
Finland390 Posts
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lantz
United States762 Posts
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3574 Posts
On September 29 2011 03:08 LostDevil wrote: Hello! I am new at this. 24 years old and investing through my Roth IRA for the time being. Professionally I am in real estate and am quite knowledgeable about investing in commercial and residential real estate. I have liquid funds that I may want to turn to the stock market since deals in my area in real estate have slowed enormously due to factors I will elaborate on below and I have been getting good returns on my money simply trading obvious dips in the market. However, where does one begin to get to the level of you guys? It seems you are mostly into trading forex? I don't understand half the shit you guys are talking about. My financial knowledge, despite going to a top univ., is all self taught and mostly through the field of Real Estate. My stock knowledge is from reading the Intelligent Investor (not done with it yet) and watching CNBC at lunch most days recently. So.. not much knowledge. I frequent Seeking Alpha lately also. I only have two holdings right now in my IRA and they are Apple and Alcoa. Long on Alcoa and Apple I will sell whenever it spikes again as it went to 419 recently. I had bought at 333 earlier in the year and am happy with how it is progressing. Spurred on by the thread about the trader on BBC and my own fears in the market as seen through my eyes in real estate I want to take an active role in making money during the recession and the more than likely future double dip to come. If any of you are curious, despite any good news in the real estate markets that have come out in the past two days it is far from good overall. Until the administration and banks starts selling off troubled assets and stop letting people live in their homes for free without foreclosing on them we will not have a recovery of any sort. Short sales and loan mods are rarely successful due to banks not being adequately staffed and trained in these matters. I handle REO (bank owned properties) assets for a living so we deal directly with banks on these things and they are terribly slow right now. Since the robo signing fiasco and the moratorium on foreclosures last year the market has slowly crawled to a halt when it comes to foreclosures. While it may seem good to some that there are fewer foreclosures it isn't good as people still aren't paying their mortgages. We made a killing last year and us along the with the other top rated brokers in our area are all scared to death at how slow it has become. No one has seen this in a long long time and I am surrounded by the most experienced brokers in my area. Anyways, that is my tidbit contribution so far and it may help some of you predict where the markets will go. If you have any advice for someone getting into it at this time and would like to point me in a direction on where to start let me know. Also, if you are mostly involved in forex where is a good place to start learning about those markets and how they are operate? All i've heard about forex is that it is quite risky unless you are very knowledgeable. But then again, so is almost every investment. Any direction would help. Thanks Hey there welcome If you are just a normal investor, and you are dealing with something as important as your life savings, you want to basically work out what level of risk you are willing to take and understand what that means and what returns you would get. For example, i'm taking the highest possible amount of risk, trading all sorts of complex derivatives through a spreadbetting/CFD platform. For you, you just need to understand the barebone basics - having a world view (ok so we think its gonna crash) - and how this affects different kinds of assets. In general, stocks in the stockmarket are expected to go down, and safe assets (such as cash and bonds) will go up in value. So if you want a no brainer, goto your bank account or broker and say "i want to buy some bonds" - US treasuries are a good option here. Or if you live in the UK, or any other safe haven zone, then you can buy your respective government bonds. We have gilts and cash ISA's as well as bond ISA's and other goodies which provide a very safe, low return. These kinds of safe returns reflect their nature in that they vastly hedge you against a falling market Now - these are the kinds of things that PROTECT your assets. Lets say you actually want to make some money from the market! Well, along with this comes more risk, and at the same time requires a bit more finesse and knowledge For this you would approach a broker who would be able to facilitate financial transactions. Usually most brokers will let you go long only, and only in shares and ETFs. But thats OK! - This is what delta-one products are for! There are many ETF's which are designed to mimick certain trading strategies. In particular, a very good ETF to invest in would be the dollar index fund, which tracks the value of the dollar. This is probably the safest investment you could make for a medium amount of money Then if you want to take a little more risk, you can invest in the inverse SNP/STOXX ETF's that mimick shorting the market. If you want to take even more risk, then you can invest in the more risky ETF's, there are various leveraged ones out there. Now, if you want to take it a step up, to the trader level, you'll need to open a margin account with your broker, or use spreadbetting/CFD platforms if its legal in your country. Now you'll get a whole wide access to short anything you want, and often access to a lot of derivatives like futures and options. This is the most risk, provides the highest return, and also requires the biggest amount of work. --- For you, i would suggest the following: Hold some of your money in local cash, take advantage of whatever special offers your bank gives you (we get ISA's in the UK for example) Hold some of your money in cash. Preferably the US dollar Hold some of your money in Bonds - safe ones (not european/greek ones) Take a SMALL percentage of your savings, and invest these into some ETF's (such as a dollar index fund, or inverse SNP/eurostoxx) - ETF's designed to benefit from falling market Lastly, if you want to take on large risk, take some excess cash and trade with it! Good luck! | ||
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LostDevil
Fiji283 Posts
I keep the vast majority of my funds in savings at the moment due to IRA deposit restrictions. You can only deposit 5k per year and I am young so it isn't much. I also keep it liquid in case there are real estate opportunities to invest in but right now the pipeline is very slow for good deals in my area. I will look into the ETF strategies you proposed. I am willing to take some risk at my age but will not do anything stupid. I would like to get into it more to the point where I could take a small amount of money and trade with it on my own. I'll hang around and try to learn some more. | ||
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/gyHav.png) august+ sep live mini contracts performance ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/XW0DE.png) last night usd cad going crazy | ||
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3574 Posts
For those of you wondering what i mean, i added right here ![[image loading]](http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/7601/dollaradd.png) On the eurostoxx world, after freaking us out with the highs, it seems to be coming back off a little. Though anything could happen with the news, but a nice little chart might give you an idea of the upcoming movements ![[image loading]](http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/9706/stoxxshort.png) For those of you looking at gold, we are seeing as usual, the ultra-volatile picture ![[image loading]](http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/2390/golddiggera.png) I have no self induced opinion on gold - however swing traders are currently expecting a selloff that might break the 200MA (1530~) and actually dip below that into november before coming back up. VERY dangerous - do NOT go long gold. I would say your next good opportunity to enter gold is somewhere around mid/late november. However, i have no personal opinion. If you are feeling risky, you can long if it touches the 200MA again (this is literally the only trade i did where i shorted at 1700 and rebought at 200MA because of technical levels - and i took a very small position due to the extreme volatility) | ||
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
On September 29 2011 06:14 LostDevil wrote: Thanks for the reply. I keep the vast majority of my funds in savings at the moment due to IRA deposit restrictions. You can only deposit 5k per year and I am young so it isn't much. I also keep it liquid in case there are real estate opportunities to invest in but right now the pipeline is very slow for good deals in my area. I will look into the ETF strategies you proposed. I am willing to take some risk at my age but will not do anything stupid. I would like to get into it more to the point where I could take a small amount of money and trade with it on my own. I'll hang around and try to learn some more. when i started i had 0 dollars. infact theres no reason you couldnt practice trading with 0 dollars. you should take a risk when you are confident you can beat the market, or risk enough that you dont feel the pain haha. oh and remember that if you can double your capital (lets say $5000) with good risk management and low variance in a year, you can double $500,000. or 5 million on the forex market. | ||
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
also, the thread about "traders shocking interview", that thread is so hilarious. im suprised none of non-sense posters have come here to degrade the thread. lol i just noticed i havent actually posted anything useful, only results. i dont read anything, i only datamine patterns pretty much. | ||
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3574 Posts
It can pretty much be summed up as "long dollar, the ultimate safe haven trade" - as dollar appreciated i've been getting longer and longer and making more and more profit, and i expect those of you reading this to do the same! I expect next week to be a REALLY big crunch in stocks - already we saw them come off in friday evening, but i am setting up some SERIOUS shorts So many risk factors, like if MS suffers liquidity issues etc. or china liquidity, it only takes one little tidbit (like nonfarm payrolls or ISM) to kick it all off. this is NOT a time to be long If you are a serious investor, you should be looking to pick up stocks cheaply but hedging them to be absolutely net-neutral For you traders, short short short! | ||
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Tiamat
United States498 Posts
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
On October 01 2011 10:54 Tiamat wrote: This is going to probably sound really stupid. Does going "long on the dollar" as a US citizen mean just holding cash in my bank account? I guess I dont understand how I can invest in the dollar when I am paying for it in the same currency. you can buy dollar index futures. you can also sell every other currency cross and buy usd. i mean... go short eur/usd, short nzd/usd, short aud/usd, long usd/jpy, long usd/chf etc etc | ||
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3574 Posts
Otherwise simply buy dollar index fund ETF | ||
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/NUsIK.png) lucky streak? loool, its from a strategy i posted earlier fridays trades and todays trades so far | ||
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3574 Posts
![[image loading]](http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/3681/predictionsf.png) Starting with gold - break the 1700 level, then hit the 200MA and jump back up tick Stoxx - false rally and come off hard tick USD - touch 200MA, have rally of lifetime, tempeorary swing low to add to longs tick So for those of you following this and trading with me, congratulations you are now swimming in money! Well, i am at least. But seriously, if you have a pension fund or savings that follow stocks, liquidate it now into cash or safe bonds or something. Don't tell me i didn't warn you! | ||
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iansanew
New Zealand86 Posts
the head trader at the firm is betting on dollar index short on a break of the 80 level. 20 pip target 20 pip stop | ||
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