EPTNBA Preseason 2010 - Page 4
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TellMeWhy
United States39 Posts
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HonestTea
5007 Posts
On October 15 2010 12:02 Servolisk wrote: Probably, but iirc HonestTea usually does that and he seems to threaten people ._. Anyone feel free to make a fantasy league! I wont' be this year anyway. | ||
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Servolisk
United States5241 Posts
On October 15 2010 17:37 XaI)CyRiC wrote: Chicago seems like a strong contender because of their talented core of Rose, Noah and Boozer (maybe include Deng there depending on how you see him). Despite having a shit coach for two seasons in Del Negro (yay Clippers!), the Bulls managed to make it into the playoffs and put up some stiff competition against some elite teams. Rose and Noah have improved each season they've been in the league, and are amongst the best at what they do (scoring and creating offense for Rose, and rebounding and defense for Noah), so just the expectation of their continued growth should place them in the playoffs. Boozer may be out now, but he'll be back soon enough and they've got a promising coach in Thibodeau who could turn an already solid defensive team into a juggernaut on that end of the floor. I'm not as high on them as some others, but I don't think you can doubt that they'll make the playoffs based on what you can see now. As for Milwaukee, I'm not sure where you looked up your rankings and stats, but my research has them as one of the top defensive teams in the league last season. Hollinger's defensive efficiency stat places them in 3rd overall, and basketball-reference places them 7th in PTS allowed, 10th in FG% allowed, 2nd in defensive rating, 8th in EFG% allowed, and 4th in opponent TO%. It's not surprising as it's Skiles' MO to walk in and immediately make drastic improvements to a team's defense. I think they have a good shot at making the playoffs with that defense, a rising star in Jennings, Bogut (who will be limited, but I expect still quite effective), and a solid roster around them (Salmons, Delfino, Maggette, Ilyasova, etc.). I have my doubts about NY because D'Antoni's system appears to need an elite PG to make it work, and Felton is far from that. Amare is the only Allstar-level talent they have on their roster, and he's not exactly known for playing defense or making his teammates better. One of the best finishers and scorers in the league for certain, but he hasn't shown any indication of being able to lead a team thus far. The rest of the team is a lot of unrealized potential (Gallinari, Randolph, Douglas, etc.) and I don't see (and haven't read anything that would suggest) the chemistry and intangibles that you referenced. They'd have a puncher's chance of beating a team in a 7-game series with their offensive potential alone, but the lack of any defense prevents them from being taken seriously. Nothing is set there except that Amare is the best player and #1 option and everything else is still being figured out as they play. They're far from hopeless, but I don't see evidence to support the enthusiasm. To make a briefer argument about Chicago expectations, compare them to previous years Jazz teams, and assume Boozer is the same as he was on those teams. I'm not at all certain Rose will be better than Deron was (though I love Rose and hope so). The rest of the Jazz team outweighs the Bulls', IMO. That Jazz team also had one of the greatest coaches. Still, they never became a contender. My stats on Milwaukee were probably wrong, I guess it was a points allowed rating. I don't follow advanced stats at all -__- :o Anyway, we'll see how they do. For NY, I'll continue my brief argument via comparison style and compare their potential to Orlando. If you take out Amare and Dwight from both of those teams, the Magic is currently better, but I think NY will be better very soon, once their players are not so raw. They have some similarities in their roster too, in terms of hustling role players, and role players who make mismatches. That comparison would have failed if Rashard Lewis did not degrade so much last season, but he seems to have dropped off after his steroids suspension. Of course, most people will think it is not relevant if NY is roughly the same in role players, as most people think Dwight >>> Amare. I however think Amare >= Dwight. :O For Amare doubters, please stand by your Amare doubting when he is in the ECF after a 28/10 season. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Look Kevin Durant averaged 30ppg, had a solid #2 in Westbrook, had a good head coach, and got solid D out of their team...and didn't make it past the Lakers. Who is the #2 option in NY? How are the Knicks going anywhere past the 1st round if they make it when the East is so top heavy? If they run into Boston, Miami, or Orlando they will get swept easily. Did you watch any Knicks games last year? If the Thunder lost, a vastly better team than NY in a conference with the Lakers as the only lock to make it to the NBA Finals, in what universe are the Knicks making it past the 3 favorites in the East? Really you'd have to prove that Amar'e is worth so many wins on a team that was: 1.)17th in the league in Offense and 27th in the league in Defense. 2.) Lost 3 of their 4 best players from last year: David Lee, Al Harrington and Nate Robinson. Even with 2 of those 3 being there all season look how terrible the team overall was. With all of them gone the team is pretty much a bunch of bench warmers and role players. Their best player after Amar'e is Danilo Galinari who only has 1 year of playing in the NBA and has to develop. If you are expecting a duo of Amar'e and Galinari to lead the Knicks into the playoffs, much less the ECF I'd really like the mushrooms you are chewing on  3.) They finished 3rd in the Atlantic Division, a whopping 11 wins behind the Raptors who also didn't even make the playoffs. You are asking for the Knicks to leap at least 11 wins to make an 8th seed when their only major free agent signing is Amar'e when they've lost 3 of their 4 best players from last season? Extremely tough task. 4.) Speaking of Amar'e, for the Knicks to make it to the playoffs with all things being equal from last season Amar'e would have to be worth at the minimum 11 wins to get them at least an 8th seed. Now the Raptors are clearly worse and so is Cleveland. Miami was already good so that leaves space for the Knicks to make it as only 7 of the teams from the Eastern Conference Playoffs last year are probably a lock. The Knicks would have to be better than NJ, Philly, Indiana and Washington to make the 8th seed. OF those I think only Indiana has a shot. So they might make it. However here's the catch and I really hate using advanced stats in some cases but just to illustrate how daunting of a task this is look at: Offensive Win Shares. Like I said before, all things being equal Amar'e would need to be worth at the minimum 11 wins for the Knicks to make it to the 8th seed. It's actually more because the team has lost David Lee and Al Harrington. Either way Amar'e's best seasons, 2004-2005 and 2007-2008 have him at 11.3 and 10.9 win shares. Even assuming Amar'e returns to the beastly form he was at during those years that's barely covering what's needed for 8th seed in the East. That would bring them to a 40-42 record. The only team that has a shot of the remaining Eastern Teams to make up that many wins are the Pacers who had a 32-50 record last season. Even losing Troy Murphy they've now got a healthy Granger and an impressive Darren Collison. The Knicks have Amar'e and Galinari. Bottom line the Knicks need to worry about just making the playoffs period before even THINKING about talking ECF. And if they make it to the playoffs they'd get swept by any of the top 3 teams in the East because that's exactly who they'd be playing in the first round. And for extra kicks, Amare has never averaged 10 rebounds a game or ever been close to 28ppg. His best is 26.0. Really you are expecting this guy to take a MAJOR leap and become so dominant that he is the clear cut #1 PF in the NBA. | ||
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a176
Canada6688 Posts
Look Kevin Durant averaged 30ppg, had a solid #2 in Westbrook, had a good head coach, and got solid D out of their team...and didn't make it past the Lakers. you make it sound they should've easily beaten the lakers :p | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Servolisk
United States5241 Posts
On October 16 2010 04:17 Ace wrote: I am really, really, really getting tired of John Hollinger on ESPN. Seriously why the fuck is this ass clown still allowed to write? Just ridiculous. Hm... I went to ESPN and did not know which Hollinger article you meant. The first one I tried was so impressively dumb I think I identified the one that set you off: http://espn.go.com/blog/TrueHoop/post/_/id/20458/taking-air-out-of-mjs-100-point-claim Really laughable, terrible, terrible article :O The bar at ESPN is not very high though. They are 50% tabloid, 49% generic superficial analysis -.- edit- I know Amare never had those averages. Just wait and see Ace ^_^ | ||
XaI)CyRiC
United States4471 Posts
Even then, I don't think you could call him the best PF in the league as I believe Dirk is still better than him in every statistical measure and in accomplishments. Gasol can also legitimately be considered a PF, since he plays in that position whenever Bynum is healthy. I don't think you can even hold the fact that Gasol plays Center a lot, as Amare has done the same throughout a significant portion of his career (including some of his best seasons). Advanced statistics also have Bosh ranked above Amare, despite Amare having Nash setting him up and Bosh having to create all his offense on his own. Bosh has also shown himself to be a better defender, as he played excellent defense for Team USA (when he didn't have to carry his team's offense), whereas Amare has never demonstrated any interest or proficiency on that end of the floor. In fact, I believe that both Dirk and Gasol are also better defenders than Amare while being as effective (if not more) on the offensive end in any area except finishing. | ||
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EximoSua2
United States216 Posts
On October 16 2010 11:00 Servolisk wrote: To make a briefer argument about Chicago expectations, compare them to previous years Jazz teams, and assume Boozer is the same as he was on those teams. I'm not at all certain Rose will be better than Deron was (though I love Rose and hope so). The rest of the Jazz team outweighs the Bulls', IMO. That Jazz team also had one of the greatest coaches. Still, they never became a contender. Haaaa, wait. The Jazz had a Center that held a candle to Noah? No. Don't think so. Try again. | ||
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x2fst
1272 Posts
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XaI)CyRiC
United States4471 Posts
On October 16 2010 11:00 Servolisk wrote:For NY, I'll continue my brief argument via comparison style and compare their potential to Orlando. If you take out Amare and Dwight from both of those teams, the Magic is currently better, but I think NY will be better very soon, once their players are not so raw. They have some similarities in their roster too, in terms of hustling role players, and role players who make mismatches. That comparison would have failed if Rashard Lewis did not degrade so much last season, but he seems to have dropped off after his steroids suspension. Of course, most people will think it is not relevant if NY is roughly the same in role players, as most people think Dwight >>> Amare. I however think Amare >= Dwight. :O Nelson vs. Felton - Nelson is the better scorer, was chosen to be on an Allstar team (missed b/c of injury); Felton is very inefficient on offense and has no real accomplishments in the NBA to speak of; both are a bit undersized and not great on defense as a result Carter vs. Chandler - Say what you want about Vince, but Chandler is nowhere near the same caliber player at this point in his career, and seems unlikely to ever reach that level Pietrus/Barnes vs. Gallinari - I think most people would consider Gallinari to be far more talented than Pietrus and Barnes, but the latter two are role players who do what they're told quite well (defend make open 3s). Gallinari, on the other hand, is the 2nd best player in NY, and that's not a good thing Lewis vs. Mozgov/Turiaf - If you take out Dwight and Amare, then the only comparison left is cross-positional matchups, and Shard definitely takes the cake in this one. Again, former allstar vs. TL.net staff icons . Oh and I disagree that Amare >= Dwight. Dwight is a monster on defense, and is steadily improving on the offense side. Amare, on the other hand, is just hoping there | ||
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igotmyown
United States4291 Posts
But they have an extremely stingy defense, and a steady inside out offense. D'Antoni might be a good coach, but he's not going to make his players have that affect. | ||
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XaI)CyRiC
United States4471 Posts
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Judicator
United States7270 Posts
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LunarDestiny
United States4177 Posts
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Holcan
Canada2593 Posts
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city42
1656 Posts
On October 16 2010 04:17 Ace wrote: I am really, really, really getting tired of John Hollinger on ESPN. Seriously why the fuck is this ass clown still allowed to write? Just ridiculous. Yeah I wrote a disgruntled response to his latest article on espn.com. I'm against the use of sabermetrics in basketball to begin with, but this is completely over the top. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On October 17 2010 05:22 LunarDestiny wrote: Have you guys checked the poll on nba.com today (Saturday)? Serious poll rigging or stupid blunder by their technicians. No way Jordan can score 100+ in his prime. In the current league setup I'd say he could do it at least once. The thing is, like Kobe all those outburst of massive points came in games when the competition forced him to go off. The 81 point game that Kobe had, the Lakers were getting slaughtered. Kobe was playing in his "I'm not losing no matter what" mode. Same with Jordan vs the Cavs in the playoffs. I don't think either of them go into a game thinking they will drop 100 points. It's when they have that indomitable will that you see these "o shit" games. With Jordan's level of talent, will power and vindictive persona even worse than Kobe you're looking at a guy that would do it in his prime if enough was at stake. On October 17 2010 06:01 city42 wrote: Yeah I wrote a disgruntled response to his latest article on espn.com. I'm against the use of sabermetrics in basketball to begin with, but this is completely over the top. The worst part about it is that they've been pushing it for what, 4 years now? No one outside of ESPN really cares about PER and half the shit this guy comes up with. | ||
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igotmyown
United States4291 Posts
The big problem with Hollinger's argument: It doesn't matter what Jordan's usage rate was. I don't think Jordan was saying he'd average 100 points a game, he just has to hog just about all the possessions for one game. On paper, it's a huge statistical abberation, but not in reality. Now given that Jordan has almost all his teams possessions, the question is what is the chance he averages enough points per shot to get 100 points? Given that Jordan had a significantly higher field goal percentage than Kobe, it's possible he can get "hotter" than Kobe in his 81 point game. Is that enough? Well, it really depends on the numbers. Second problem: the pace argument. While it's certainly valid, it's again an argument about the average. If you're playing the Knicks, Suns, or "D-league player record" Warriors, you're going to have a ton of possessions. Given that Brandon Jennings scored 55 on them... Well Michael or Kobe aren't scoring 100 on the Celtics, or even 50 (oh wait a second), those big games are about picking on those poor defenseless teams. | ||
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city42
1656 Posts
On October 17 2010 13:16 igotmyown wrote: I wouldn't make the common mistake of attributing your own personal opinions to everyone, though it's a great way to marginalize what someone else said. PER, offensive win and defensive win shares, they're all useful things to know, compared to, how many points did he score and highlight reels. Since you're obviously a member of the basketball illuminati, please educate us common folk on the myriad useful things about PER. | ||
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