EPTGeneral Discussion - Page 5920
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Torte de Lini
Germany38463 Posts
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teapoted
United Kingdom24425 Posts
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Torte de Lini
Germany38463 Posts
On July 19 2014 22:11 teapoted wrote: Basically the same word. It would avoid an imitated oxymoron as a declined growth sounds contradictory when you mean to say that there is less of a growth or a reduction/diminishing. | ||
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Kupon3ss
時の回廊10066 Posts
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Torte de Lini
Germany38463 Posts
On July 19 2014 22:17 Kupon3ss wrote: I would argue that all this effort spent on analyzing growth/lackthereof would be better spent on creating better content In what way? | ||
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teddyoojo
Germany22369 Posts
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Torte de Lini
Germany38463 Posts
On July 19 2014 22:20 teddyoojo wrote: in a baiting u way ha well I'm all ears. I've redesigned the first page Added 3 more guides Drafted Techies guide Did all the stats from 2013 to now Tracked all changes from 2013 to now Rewriting all the general description for the heroes and now I'm sorta searching for new stuff to do. | ||
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hariooo
Canada2830 Posts
On July 19 2014 22:00 teapoted wrote: Of course it can be described as declining. If you're doubling users every year and then you start only increasing by 150%, then your growth rate has declined. If you're dealing with linear growth, then it wouldn't be declining, but I'm presuming the guides haven't had linear growth. This is happening because he is comparing the number of new users to the existing subscriber numbers (I'll use 20million currently as an example) instead of the more appropriate number, the total number of dota players. So if there's 100 million dota players worldwide (just an example there's more) and you're getting 2 million every 15 days, that's 2% per time period. If the next period you get 2.1 million, that's 2.1% and that's growth. This makes sense to everyone. The way he is talking about it now, by comparing that 2mil and 2.1mil to the current subscriber numbers, 2.1mil is suddenly framed as "decline in growth" because the 2 million was 10% "growth" compared to 20mil and the 2.1mil the next period is only ~9% "growth". I hope this last example better expresses what I'm trying to say. The project itself is very impressive and so are the numbers so I'm not trying to diminish anyone's work or be a dick for noreason. Comparing new subscriber numbers to total population of dota players is more appropriate than to compare it to current subscribers. | ||
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Zvenn3n
Sweden1196 Posts
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Torte de Lini
Germany38463 Posts
On July 19 2014 22:24 hariooo wrote: This is happening because he is comparing the number of new users to the existing subscriber numbers (I'll use 20million currently as an example) instead of the more appropriate number, the total number of dota players. So if there's 100 million dota players worldwide (just an example there's more) and you're getting 2 million every 15 days, that's 2% per time period. If the next period you get 2.1 million, that's 2.1% and that's growth. This makes sense to everyone. The way he is talking about it now, by comparing that 2mil and 2.1mil to the current subscriber numbers, 2.1mil is suddenly framed as "decline in growth" because the 2 million was 10% "growth" compared to 20mil and the 2.1mil the next period is only ~9% "growth". I hope this last example better expresses what I'm trying to say. The project itself is very impressive and so are the numbers so I'm not trying to diminish anyone's work or be a dick for noreason. Comparing new subscriber numbers to total population of dota players is more appropriate than to compare it to current subscribers. Nah, don't worry. Nobody thinks you're trying to shit on anything. But I don't think I get your difference of terms. The issue with comparing the total population and current subscribers is two-fold: 1. The total population of Dota players is not possible to concretely determine. We have "Unique Players per Month", but it is consistently changing. 2. Subscriber numbers are overlapping. It isn't 27.75 million unique subscribers. It is 27.75 total subscriptions; multiple people can be subscribed to multiple guides (and are thus counted in total SUBSCRIPTIONS). We can only make conjectures of unique subscribers (from 1 to 1.5 million assumably). We're comparing total accumulated subscriptions of 15 days ago to how many were accumulated now and then we minus the difference/divide by previous date and then multiple by 100: Example: June 20th total subscriptions: 23,956,248 July 4th total subscriptions: 25,861,337 July 19th total subscriptions: 27,755,144 Growth Rate Percentage: July 4th Growth Rate (%): 7.95 [June 20th -> July 4th] July 19th Growth Rate (%): 7.32 [July 4th -> July 19th] There is a decline, percentage-wise (or diminishing), or we can say that the growth has slowed if you prefer. | ||
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hariooo
Canada2830 Posts
On July 19 2014 22:33 Torte de Lini wrote: Nah, don't worry. Nobody thinks you're trying to shit on anything. But I don't think I get your difference of terms. The issue with comparing the total population and current subscribers is two-fold: 1. The total population of Dota players is not possible to concretely determine. We have "Unique Players per Month", but it is consistently changing. 2. Subscriber numbers are overlapping. It isn't 27.75 million unique subscribers. It is 27.75 total subscriptions; multiple people can be subscribed to multiple guides (and are thus counted in total SUBSCRIPTIONS). We can only make conjectures of unique subscribers (from 1 to 1.5 million assumably). We're comparing total accumulated subscriptions of 15 days ago to how many were accumulated now and then we minus the difference/divide by previous date and then multiple by 100: Example: June 20th total subscriptions: 23,956,248 July 4th total subscriptions: 25,861,337 July 19th total subscriptions: 27,755,144 Growth Rate Percentage: July 4th Growth Rate (%): 7.95 [June 20th -> July 4th] July 19th Growth Rate (%): 7.32 [July 4th -> July 19th] There is a decline, percentage-wise (or diminishing), or we can say that the growth has slowed if you prefer. I think it's just that to be able to apply compound growth, the new units should be a function of the old units. That's why a $1000 investment that yields $100 the first year and $105 the next can be seen to have "declining growth" (10% then ~9.5%), since the concept is that each dollar generates the additional income, so an absolute increase doesn't tell the whole story compared to percentage growth. Subscriptions don't provide returns based on the base amount in the same way so it's, while not necessarily wrong or meaningless, less useful to emphasize percentage growth compared to absolute growth. It's a good point about subscriptions not being based on unique players but the fact that there is a definite cap on the number of total possible subscriptions still reinforces that point. So in the end I just think that the growth shouldn't be interpreted as "declining" as compared to "consistent" or "stable" based on those reasons. | ||
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idonthinksobro
3138 Posts
On July 19 2014 22:24 Torte de Lini wrote: ha well I'm all ears. I've redesigned the first page Added 3 more guides Drafted Techies guide Did all the stats from 2013 to now Tracked all changes from 2013 to now Rewriting all the general description for the heroes and now I'm sorta searching for new stuff to do. get better at dota? a big part of making a good guide is being good at the game and understanding stuff, the game changes a lot on different levels of play. And even if your goal is to teach new players you should be at least a couple levels above the players you want to teach. Maybe change the general direction of your guides. I often think that the guides represent what people do in low-mid level pubs and not what is considered good or optimal play on a hero. (one example that recently comes to mind was "i have never seen offlane prophet"). Start surveys about skill builds / item builds or guides in general. Not to necessarily to change guides a lot but to get more input in general. It seems that a lot of your guides are built from your own personal experience and a couple of posts in this thread, this will be biased even if you try to be as neutral as possible. some guides have pretty outdated skillbuilds for example brewmaster, almost nobody gets stats on this hero anymore. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/0sAuU6v.png) And Sven usually doesn't get cleave at lvl 3 or 4. Especially in low level pubs where this hero is almost always played as safelane carry. make additional guides for heros that can play more than one role and have very different builds. (for example wraith king support and wraith king carry are completly different) | ||
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teddyoojo
Germany22369 Posts
fucking math n shit tryin 2b smart | ||
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solidbebe
Netherlands4921 Posts
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Torte de Lini
Germany38463 Posts
On July 19 2014 22:46 hariooo wrote: I think it's just that to be able to apply compound growth, the new units should be a function of the old units. That's why a $1000 investment that yields $100 the first year and $105 the next can be seen to have "declining growth" (10% then ~9.5%), since the concept is that each dollar generates the additional income, so an absolute increase doesn't tell the whole story compared to percentage growth. Subscriptions don't provide returns based on the base amount in the same way so it's, while not necessarily wrong or meaningless, less useful to emphasize percentage growth compared to absolute growth. It's a good point about subscriptions not being based on unique players but the fact that there is a definite cap on the number of total possible subscriptions still reinforces that point. So in the end I just think that the growth shouldn't be interpreted as "declining" as compared to "consistent" or "stable" based on those reasons. It does have a cap but we don't know what it is and we can't determine it on any remote level. Subscriptions are kept even if you stop playing Dota making "caps" almost invisible. We track concrete number of subscription growths as well as a percentage. The rate of growth has slowed in comparison to past checkpoints. I think what we can argue that the there were more guides now than before, shifting a misperception of growth rate because newer guides don't necessarily popular as fast as established ones. | ||
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teddyoojo
Germany22369 Posts
On July 19 2014 22:56 solidbebe wrote: all this education is hurting your eyes is hurtn in ma head br0 | ||
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Kupon3ss
時の回廊10066 Posts
2) There's a thread for this already, please take it there | ||
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teddyoojo
Germany22369 Posts
my pc crashed during eg nb yesterday cuz overheating (this literally never ever happened before) whys gaben hate me | ||
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Torte de Lini
Germany38463 Posts
On July 19 2014 22:53 idonthinksobro wrote: get better at dota? a big part of making a good guide is being good at the game and understanding stuff, the game changes a lot on different levels of play. And even if your goal is to teach new players you should be at least a couple levels above the players you want to teach. Maybe change the general direction of your guides. I often think that the guides represent what people do in low-mid level pubs and not what is considered good or optimal play on a hero. (one example that recently comes to mind was "i have never seen offlane prophet"). Start surveys about skill builds / item builds or guides in general. Not to necessarily to change guides a lot but to get more input in general. It seems that a lot of your guides are built from your own personal experience and a couple of posts in this thread, this will be biased even if you try to be as neutral as possible. some guides have pretty outdated skillbuilds for example brewmaster, almost nobody gets stats on this hero anymore. And Sven usually doesn't get cleave at lvl 3 or 4. Especially in low level pubs where this hero is almost always played as safelane carry. make additional guides for heros that can play more than one role and have very different builds. (for example wraith king support and wraith king carry are completly different) I'm still playing Dota 2 on an everyday basis that is something that has its own pace. Good or optimal play of a hero is too contextual to dictate with a guide. It would be too much information when the majority of users use the guides for heroes they don't recognize or have played before (aka All Random, etc.). It's a reference and has still be framed in a such a way. For heroes with contexts of being played multiple ways; we have two separate tabs (Carry, Ganker, etc.) Guides are started with personal experience, Dotabuff from pros as well as just observing matches (an insane amount). Surveys don't help as I need explanations and thoughts behind the suggestions not the consensus of anonymous people. Brewmaster still gets stats early in the game because of his weak manapool (two stats gives enough for two Qs, no?) as well as the cost for his W. In addition, he doesn't come online until after Blink; around level 7-8. Please correct me if I'm wrong. For Wraith King I can start adding different build sequences (tabs) for different roles, but what is popular in professional games may not always be followed or accepted in public games. Wraith King as a support is pretty good but its like Aghanim's Void; it needs a coordinated team and line-up to take advantage of it. It's difficult to convey all of that in a guide with limited characters. Anyways, this is becoming a second guide topic :x | ||
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teapoted
United Kingdom24425 Posts
On July 19 2014 23:03 teddyoojo wrote: in other news, the 4 hottest days this year were yesterday, today, and will be tomorow and the day after tomorrow! my pc crashed during eg nb yesterday cuz overheating (this literally never ever happened before) whys gaben hate me It's so fucking humid here, leather seat be damned. | ||
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