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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On November 11 2016 05:31 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2016 05:27 LegalLord wrote:On November 11 2016 05:20 mahrgell wrote: So Trump has deleted several of his core demands from his own campaign page between Tuesday and Wednesday. Backpedaling faster than the Brexit boys. I'm amused. Among the demands he removed: - his list of SCOTUS judges - immigration ban on muslims - dropping the Paris agreement
Also he "fixed" some details on defense, economy and regulation demands. Those actually sound like pretty damn good things to drop. We just might avoid the worst case scenarios we were worried about. I don't disagree that it is a good thing to drop those. But I find it amusing to campaign on those heavily... and then drop then when you notice you accidentally won. Really similar to what happened with the Brexit. Meh, not really. Wait until he drops the wall or scrapping the TPP before saying he is back pedaling hard. These are mostly minor points on his campaign.
And as of now we still don't know how far Brexit is going to backpedal. At this point it's all really unclear.
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SCOTUS is still a big deal Rest is rather moot.
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On November 11 2016 05:34 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2016 05:33 Nyxisto wrote:On November 11 2016 05:31 RvB wrote:On November 11 2016 05:29 Slaughter wrote:On November 11 2016 05:27 LegalLord wrote:On November 11 2016 05:20 mahrgell wrote: So Trump has deleted several of his core demands from his own campaign page between Tuesday and Wednesday. Backpedaling faster than the Brexit boys. I'm amused. Among the demands he removed: - his list of SCOTUS judges - immigration ban on muslims - dropping the Paris agreement
Also he "fixed" some details on defense, economy and regulation demands. Those actually sound like pretty damn good things to drop. We just might avoid the worst case scenarios we were worried about. Maybe his 1998 quote is happening lol. He never said that. Given this election I don't think that means that it can't happen. yeah that's true. I thought Slaugther implied that Trump actually said it. If that's not the case it's my bad.
Yeah I know it's not true. Just playing on that quote plus the early meme that he is a secret Democrat plant.
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On November 11 2016 05:35 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2016 05:31 mahrgell wrote:On November 11 2016 05:27 LegalLord wrote:On November 11 2016 05:20 mahrgell wrote: So Trump has deleted several of his core demands from his own campaign page between Tuesday and Wednesday. Backpedaling faster than the Brexit boys. I'm amused. Among the demands he removed: - his list of SCOTUS judges - immigration ban on muslims - dropping the Paris agreement
Also he "fixed" some details on defense, economy and regulation demands. Those actually sound like pretty damn good things to drop. We just might avoid the worst case scenarios we were worried about. I don't disagree that it is a good thing to drop those. But I find it amusing to campaign on those heavily... and then drop then when you notice you accidentally won. Really similar to what happened with the Brexit. Meh, not really. Wait until he drops the wall or scrapping the TPP before saying he is back pedaling hard. These are mostly minor points on his campaign. And as of now we still don't know how far Brexit is going to backpedal. At this point it's all really unclear. Then he'll say he paid all those women to accuse him of sexual assault and that the whole campaign was a social experiment for his youtube channel
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
I think of it this way: does it contradict the core issue that got him elected? His policy goals essentially boil down to "America first" and these seem workable within that framework.
The single market / free movement issue of Brexit is far more fundamental than the Paris Accords. And given how frightened the Europeans are over the failure of them (I really don't want them dropped either) this was definitely the right move.
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On November 11 2016 05:35 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2016 05:31 mahrgell wrote:On November 11 2016 05:27 LegalLord wrote:On November 11 2016 05:20 mahrgell wrote: So Trump has deleted several of his core demands from his own campaign page between Tuesday and Wednesday. Backpedaling faster than the Brexit boys. I'm amused. Among the demands he removed: - his list of SCOTUS judges - immigration ban on muslims - dropping the Paris agreement
Also he "fixed" some details on defense, economy and regulation demands. Those actually sound like pretty damn good things to drop. We just might avoid the worst case scenarios we were worried about. I don't disagree that it is a good thing to drop those. But I find it amusing to campaign on those heavily... and then drop then when you notice you accidentally won. Really similar to what happened with the Brexit. Meh, not really. Wait until he drops the wall or scrapping the TPP before saying he is back pedaling hard. These are mostly minor points on his campaign. And as of now we still don't know how far Brexit is going to backpedal. At this point it's all really unclear.
He better not drop the TPP. That's like the one silver lining policy issue I can look forward to from his win.
For everything else I just imagine at one point Trump sitting there while someone talks policy details to him (which seemingly no one ever has before) and his eyes widening in horror at exactly what it is he agreed to do.
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I'm pretty surre TTP and TTIP are the most likely things he's going to drop. The trade deal protectionism was one of the most important things that pushed him to victory. I have more hopes for the climate change agreement than trade.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
I'm pretty sure that trade deals was what won Trump the election. That, he absolutely has to go through with dismantling. Unless he wants to be instantly removed.
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So neither the US wants TTIP nor Europe wants TTIP. Why does it exist then XD
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TTP benefit rich elite, that's why trump won. it screws over the poor white working class. sadly what they don't understand is that manufacturing jobs are never coming back.... robots replaced them. if
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On November 11 2016 05:48 sharkie wrote: So neither the US wants TTIP nor Europe wants TTIP. Why does it exist then XD The people dont want them. Companies do and they hold a lot of influence. That is why people protest against it. To remind the government that voting in favor threatens their re-election.
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On November 11 2016 04:30 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2016 03:32 LegalLord wrote:On November 11 2016 03:30 Acrofales wrote:On November 11 2016 03:16 LegalLord wrote:On November 11 2016 03:14 Acrofales wrote:On November 11 2016 02:39 LegalLord wrote:On November 11 2016 02:26 Acrofales wrote:On November 11 2016 02:12 LegalLord wrote:On November 11 2016 02:07 Logo wrote:On November 11 2016 02:04 LegalLord wrote: Trump won by the rules of the current game. If there were different rules, there would be a different game. It wouldn't just be what we have now, but a flipped result. We don't know with any comfortable certainty what would happen. I don't think that's a good deflection of criticisms of the current system though. Like pissed off workers in Michigan have probably been wanting to complain with their vote for a few cycles already (or have been?) but no one bothered paying attention to them because the state was going to go blue anyways. It works both ways for both parties and I'm not really sure anyone is benefiting except the people who end up in office (regardless of party). The core of people's complaints really is just that "the wrong candidate won because the system is BS." And while the system may be BS, we really don't know how it would have gone with a different system. We only have educated guesses. Maybe Michigan workers would get ignored in favor of California liberals who are too lazy to get out and vote unless prodded. We really just don't know. The system we have led to the current results. A different system wouldn't just be "this same thing but different presidents." It would be completely different. And that's fine. My main question is whether a system that has led to a historic high of 57% of the eligible population voting is really a good democratic system. It doesn't seem so. And FPTP seems to be the main culprit, given that there are only really 10 or so states where voting can make a real difference. Lets face it, if I were a busy Californian, I wouldn't go and vote. There are clearly better ways of spending my time, because the blue candidate will win anyway (and the polls have been telling me so for months). Whereas with some form of proportional representation, the more votes my candidate gets, the bigger the slice of the pie for that blue candidate: suddenly Californians (or Dakotans if you prefer a red state example) have a fire lit under their ass to go and vote, the same as Floridians or Ohioans (Ohians?) And would you be worried that the rural voters wouldn't bother, because they would be concerned that they would never win because the big cities would just outvote them anyways. And removing FPTP leads to runoff elections, which are logistically much less pleasant in the US and could lead to something similar to France, where you can get a runoff election between a Le Pen and a candidate everyone but their core base hates. This is not an easy problem and no other system is so clearly better that switching is justified. You already had that exact vote the last election. Trump = Le Pen, and Hillary = candidate everyone but their core base hates. Could end up being Cruz vs Trump or something, which would scare me more than Hillary vs Trump. Imagine the field being Obama, Hillary, Billy, Biden, Trump, Bernie, and Cruz. Each part of their own party. Anyway, extra runoff elections are not necessary if you have some form of preference ranking (this would be miserably awful on paper, but could be pretty easy to do digitally), you can do instant run-off which is a great way of doing run-off elections in a single round (although the ballot is more complex, which is a serious argument against it). And then we open up a whole new can of worms along the lines of untested electoral systems. At some point inertia dominates in that things aren't quite so fucked that I'd be up for supporting a change like that which could be disastrous. You know that you can do tests and figure the practicalities first. I'm sure there's a state somewhere willing to run their governor election like this (and before that, you can do usability tests). Of course you don't say "right, we have this untested method, lets change the constitution and pray that it works". That said, social choice theory is a rather active field of economics, and the theoretical properties of instant runoff are pretty good. It really does work rather well if you can rank your choices, and leads to far better results than only taking your first choice into account. One particularly nice property is that strategic voting makes no sense. If your first choice were Gary Johnson, you'd put Gary Johnson at the top, and not vote for Hillary simply because you're a neverTrumper. You'd simply put Hillary second and Trump third (or maybe Stein and another 3 even more obscure candidates above Trump). There are other systems with preference ranking (Borda and Condorcet being the most famous), but instant runoff is easier to understand and has better properties for the type of election we're talking about. But honestly, the status quo is pretty bad. It doesn't take a lot to come up with a better system than the current FPTP Electoral College system.
Yes, I have no idea how Americans put up with a system so arcaic, stale and unfair.
Democratic systems have been testes thouroughly by several highly developed countries. I know the US is big, and the number of states might complicate some things, but almost anything is better than what you have. The best and most fair democracy is probably is probably the Scandinavian model:
-Only one parlament or "house."
-No president or direct president election. The head of government is the prime minister, which can change midterm. Who the candidates for prime mister are, is usually clear before the election.
-Each region has a set number of representatives in the parlament, they are roughly distributed after the % of votes the parties in the region get.
-A number of candidates are given to iron out unfairness in distribution, so that the final parlament composition will closely resemble the election result.
-A government is negociated between the parties. It can have a clean majority in parlament or not. Governments are usually composed of several parties, but it is possible for a party to govern alone. Governments without majority in the parlament are dependent on ongoing negociations with different collaborators to get their policies through.
-Parties are usually organized into 2 "blocks" to support one government or the other, but any party can collaborate with anyone they want. "Over the middle" governments have formed successfully as well!
-A government, or individual ministers, can be thrown by the parlament if they vote to do so.
How would a system like this shape up in the US? As you have seen, presidental campaigns easily turn into person-focussed farces, which have very little to do with politics. Bullshit FBI investigations and pussycomments key components? Give me a break...
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On November 11 2016 05:48 sharkie wrote: So neither the US wants TTIP nor Europe wants TTIP. Why does it exist then XD Because capitalists want it.
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On November 11 2016 05:53 Slydie wrote: How would a system like this shape up in the US? As you have seen, presidental campaigns easily turn into person-focussed farces, which have very little to do with politics. Bullshit FBI investigations and pussycomments key components? Give me a break...
just because this election turned into that ... don't assume every US election is like that. if you'd like to go over the last 12 presidential elections 1 by 1 as a demonstration that your generalization is way off base i'd be glad to do so.
Hillary got suckered into playing Trump's game.
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Don't look now, CNN projects Trump will win the popular vote. We'll see. It could at least put this EC discussion to bed again. And add another "wrong" to my prediction list.
On November 11 2016 03:57 Slaughter wrote: Well the Democrats are going to have to change soon anyway with the younger generation being more liberal and aligned a lot more towards bernie than Clinton. Hell just looking at the 18-25 vote they crushed it for Clinton but that seemed to be more anti trump.
I am not sure where young Republicans lean though. Anyone know what their ideas are and their vision of conservatism is?
Good question. Trump lost self-identified young conservatives through the primaries. Those votes went to Rubio/Cruz. There will be a mix, as there always is. Personally I think their quality will be superior to that of the previous generation(s), but there may be fewer of them. Not sure about that last part.
On November 11 2016 02:52 IgnE wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2016 02:23 Danglars wrote:On November 11 2016 01:51 TheYango wrote: The discussion right now about the electoral college is a red herring here. Even if Clinton won the popular vote, it's still true that almost 50% of the country voted for Trump. Whether you disenfranchise slightly more or slightly less than 50%, the problem is still the same.
The electoral map posted by Danglars illustrates the real problem here: we are a country that is living in two different worlds. The way rural America experiences the world is too different from urban America does. Even the urban Trump voter probably voted for Trump for vastly different reasons than his rural counterpart. In the last day since the election, I've been trying to reconcile myself with how so much of the country not only has a different worldview from my own, but one that seems utterly incompatible with my own.
It is easy to dismiss their view as uneducated or illogical, but that doesn't make the problem go away. It's easy to be partisan and blame the other side, when in fact a lot of what's wrong isn't the fault of either party, and is just an inevitable consequence of advancing technology and a shift in economy toward 21st century tech. We need to make a better effort to understand each other as a country, and what we should be doing to help such a massive swath of people who have been left behind by the 21st century. Now we're on to the bigger problem that isn't fixed with rejiggering electors. Incompatible worldviews to the point where millions of Trump voters voted for him with regret, faced with no other option electorally. The stuff Trump talks about immigrants is one thing, how MSNBC treats midwesterners is quite another. If you like some densely packed coasts and cities ruling over a sea of red--because votes--I salute your unironic endorsement of colonialism because that's a hard thing to do. Everybody knows where your overlords and moral betters live. And just to remind people that not everybody is committed to understanding the DNC meltdown, CNN is talking about internment camps. Maybe pause the fearmongering on Trump just a bit, guys. + Show Spoiler +
(And weren't we warned the crazy fascists were gonna go crazy after losing the election ... oh wait)
Clinton’s campaign assumed that the Obama coalition, which relied heavily on urban minority and suburban women voters, was permanent. Democrats saw little need to court blue-collar whites in places like western Pennsylvania, as Clinton did in 2008, or even acknowledge what’s happened there over the past 40 years. In a moment of utter tone-deafness back in March, Clinton even said at a town hall in West Virginia, “We’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business.”
Voters remembered that. Across eastern Ohio and rural Pennsylvania, political signs in town after town declared some version of, “Elect Trump, stop the war on coal.” Perhaps without fully realizing it, the Clinton campaign conveyed a blunt message to working-class whites across the region: we don’t care about you. Federalist on MidWestSpecifically to TheYango, from the GuardianShe was the Democratic candidate because it was her turn and because a Clinton victory would have moved every Democrat in Washington up a notch. Whether or not she would win was always a secondary matter, something that was taken for granted. Had winning been the party’s number one concern, several more suitable candidates were ready to go. There was Joe Biden, with his powerful plainspoken style, and there was Bernie Sanders, an inspiring and largely scandal-free figure. Each of them would probably have beaten Trump, but neither of them would really have served the interests of the party insiders. And so Democratic leaders made Hillary their candidate even though they knew about her closeness to the banks, her fondness for war, and her unique vulnerability on the trade issue – each of which Trump exploited to the fullest. They chose Hillary even though they knew about her private email server. They chose her even though some of those who studied the Clinton Foundation suspected it was a sketchy proposition. To try to put over such a nominee while screaming that the Republican is a rightwing monster is to court disbelief. If Trump is a fascist, as liberals often said, Democrats should have put in their strongest player to stop him, not a party hack they’d chosen because it was her turn. Choosing her indicated either that Democrats didn’t mean what they said about Trump’s riskiness, that their opportunism took precedence over the country’s well-being, or maybe both. Clinton’s supporters among the media didn’t help much, either. It always struck me as strange that such an unpopular candidate enjoyed such robust and unanimous endorsements from the editorial and opinion pages of the nation’s papers, but it was the quality of the media’s enthusiasm that really harmed her. With the same arguments repeated over and over, two or three times a day, with nuance and contrary views all deleted, the act of opening the newspaper started to feel like tuning in to a Cold War propaganda station. Here’s what it consisted of: - Hillary was virtually without flaws. She was a peerless leader clad in saintly white, a super-lawyer, a caring benefactor of women and children, a warrior for social justice.
- Her scandals weren’t real.
- The economy was doing well / America was already great.
- Working-class people weren’t supporting Trump.
- And if they were, it was only because they were botched humans. Racism was the only conceivable reason for lining up with the Republican candidate.
How did the journalists’ crusade fail? The fourth estate came together in an unprecedented professional consensus. They chose insulting the other side over trying to understand what motivated them. They transformed opinion writing into a vehicle for high moral boasting. What could possibly have gone wrong with such an approach? that article is pretty spot on. hillary tried to coerce votes and failed. the people will not be coerced. instead they will vote silently; if trump had lost there would have been a mystery deficit along the lines of "i didnt vote trump, dont look at me. i cant explain these millions of trump votes or why clinton only barely won." it would have been interesting to see what the trump campaign thought in their heart of hearts about the polling pre election. trump said it would have been a huge waste of time and resources if he lost. did he know he had a legit shot the whole time and if he didnt think he had a legit shot would he have shut it down earlier?
Pretty much every source said they were preparing for a loss.
On November 11 2016 05:35 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2016 05:31 mahrgell wrote:On November 11 2016 05:27 LegalLord wrote:On November 11 2016 05:20 mahrgell wrote: So Trump has deleted several of his core demands from his own campaign page between Tuesday and Wednesday. Backpedaling faster than the Brexit boys. I'm amused. Among the demands he removed: - his list of SCOTUS judges - immigration ban on muslims - dropping the Paris agreement
Also he "fixed" some details on defense, economy and regulation demands. Those actually sound like pretty damn good things to drop. We just might avoid the worst case scenarios we were worried about. I don't disagree that it is a good thing to drop those. But I find it amusing to campaign on those heavily... and then drop then when you notice you accidentally won. Really similar to what happened with the Brexit. Meh, not really. Wait until he drops the wall or scrapping the TPP before saying he is back pedaling hard. These are mostly minor points on his campaign. And as of now we still don't know how far Brexit is going to backpedal. At this point it's all really unclear.
The Court was one of the main things Trump used to get conservatives on board-- he brought it up again and again and again. He better not flip on that, or he's going to earn (and I mean earn) some serious ire.
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Whether Trump wins the popular vote or not, the electoral college has no modern justification. Our voting should be modernized.
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On November 11 2016 06:00 Introvert wrote:Don't look now, CNN projects Trump will win the popular vote. We'll see. It could at least put this EC discussion to bed again. And add another "wrong" to my prediction list.
Trump winning the majority vote should not bed the EC discussion in my opinion. I don't think we should ignore a broken system just because it happen to correlate with a working one once in a while. People aren't just angry that Clinton lost, but that the system allows for someone to win when the majority of people (who voted) voted for someone else, and that the large amount of people who didn't vote did so because for them in their state it didn't matter.
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On November 11 2016 06:05 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2016 06:00 Introvert wrote:Don't look now, CNN projects Trump will win the popular vote. We'll see. It could at least put this EC discussion to bed again. And add another "wrong" to my prediction list. Trump winning the majority vote should not bed the EC discussion in my opinion. I don't think we should ignore a broken system just because it happen to correlate with a working one once in a while. People aren't just angry that Clinton won, but that the system allows for someone to win when the majority of people (who voted) voted for someone else, and that the large amount of people who didn't vote did so because for them in their state it didn't matter.
Also I don't see that in the link. It still shows Clinton up in the popular vote.
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On November 11 2016 05:57 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2016 05:53 Slydie wrote: How would a system like this shape up in the US? As you have seen, presidental campaigns easily turn into person-focussed farces, which have very little to do with politics. Bullshit FBI investigations and pussycomments key components? Give me a break... just because this election turned into that ... don't assume every US election is like that. if you'd like to go over the last 12 presidential elections 1 by 1 as a demonstration that your generalization is way off base i'd be glad to do so. Hillary got suckered into playing Trump's game. Go ahead. At least since 2000 every election has involved a nasty smear campaign that either had no basis in truth (swiftboat and birther scandals come to mind), or blew something said horribly out of proportion (47% and "Gore created the internet"). Is that really what you want to base your elections on?
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On November 11 2016 06:06 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2016 06:05 Excludos wrote:On November 11 2016 06:00 Introvert wrote:Don't look now, CNN projects Trump will win the popular vote. We'll see. It could at least put this EC discussion to bed again. And add another "wrong" to my prediction list. Trump winning the majority vote should not bed the EC discussion in my opinion. I don't think we should ignore a broken system just because it happen to correlate with a working one once in a while. People aren't just angry that Clinton won, but that the system allows for someone to win when the majority of people (who voted) voted for someone else, and that the large amount of people who didn't vote did so because for them in their state it didn't matter. Also I don't see that in the link. It still shows Clinton up in the popular vote. The way I'm reading it Clinton is ahead right now but they're projecting Trump to win the popular vote after the last 7% of the votes are counted.
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