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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 453

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Myrddraal
Profile Joined December 2010
Australia937 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-18 06:54:22
September 18 2013 06:51 GMT
#9041
On September 18 2013 14:36 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 18 2013 14:06 Kiarip wrote:
On September 18 2013 13:56 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 18 2013 13:17 Kiarip wrote:
On September 18 2013 12:54 farvacola wrote:
On September 18 2013 12:53 Kiarip wrote:
On September 18 2013 12:41 farvacola wrote:
On September 18 2013 12:38 Kiarip wrote:
"a glut can take place only when there are too many means of production applied to one kind of product and not enough to another"

Why?

Edit: Try to use the most simple language possible.


I posted a direct quote that's part of "Say's Law."


It's saying that a glut is caused by a misallocation of resources.

Yes, I know, but I'd like for you to explain why a glut can only take place in the manner described by Say's Law, unless you don't think so yourself.


I think a better idea would be for you to give an example of a glut that's not caused by a misallocation of resources, but if I had to try my argument would look something like this:

1) a) Specialization makes exchange mutually beneficial (increase in value)
b) Specialization increases productivity in a given task (increase in value)

2) Constant trade is a result of 1a, 1b.

3) In order for trade to stop either 1a or 1b need to stop being true.

3a) 1a) stops being true if one of the parties is offering a product that the other one doesn't need (so the trade is no longer mutually beneficial,)

3b) 1b) stops being true if the party specializes in an activity that doesn't have value for any of its potential trading partners.

both 3a) and 3b) are misallocation of resources.

2) I don't see how you are going to get 'constant' trade in the real world. A lot of supply and demand is lumpy.

Ex. Building a sky scraper dumps a lot of supply on the market at once. After, no one builds a new building for a while. It isn't that the building isn't needed (resources misallocated), so much as it's nature demands a stop / go production cycle.


I think this example still operates well outside the range of the economy being in a glut though. If you built a sky-scraper and you filled up all the offices except for 2 floors, then yeah building a second sky-scraper right away probably isn't a good a idea, but you wouldn't say that your office-space economy is in a glut, just because your new skyscraper still has 2 floors that haven't been rented.

But now you have a bunch of unemployed construction workers and under utilized construction firms who are no longer buying as many goods and services.

Before they can be redeployed they can cause supply/demand to fall throughout the greater economy as 'gluts' in their would be demand appear.

Edit: Construction guys like trucks but don't buy when unemployed. Now you have a glut of trucks on dealer's lots. The dealer cuts prices / cancels orders. Now everyone in the entire supply chain can't buy as many trucks either and the cycle reinforces itself.


I'm pretty sure by constant trade he didn't mean constant trade within each sector, but overall there will always be trade. I'm not necessarily saying that I agree with him, but to disprove what he is saying with an example, you would need to show how something could cause a glut in all sectors at once.

Besides, wouldn't your skyscraper example only result in a glut if there was a glut in the construction industry before the skyscraper was built, or if for some other reason while it was being built there became less demand for construction?
[stranded]: http://www.indiedb.com/games/stranded
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
September 18 2013 07:28 GMT
#9042
the problem is that if you try to say, "eventually people would stop building stuff that's not needed, so there's no glut" this is a very trivial conclusion that doesn't let you describe any real world problems. like trying to study genetics without having DNA in your vocabulary.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-18 11:57:21
September 18 2013 11:36 GMT
#9043
I'm waiting for Kiarip to explain us that all market equilibriums are pareto optimal (the allocation is efficient) and thus that glut, since they are misallocations, can only happen when "something" exogene disturb the market (understand: IT IS BECAUSE OF THE STATE OF COURSE).

I don't understand why Say's law is even discussed outside of purely academic discussion on the history of economy. Kierip exactly told us why it is completly retarded to use Say's law to deny any possibility for a crisis of over production: you suppose that there is a "perfect" business man.
In reality, every businessman make assumption on its futur profit (or more exactly on the futur demand, the effective demand of Keynes) and thus risk not to achieve his goal if its predictions are wrong. Firms wish to gain a specific profit, and they all fear the eventuality of being peniless at the end of a period if their profit are less than what they wished for.
A crisis of over production will eventually come by if a lot of firms makes bad prediction on the state of the demand, and if no third party (other firms, the state, etc.) invest enough to compensate the wrong predictions.

The idea of perfect information or rational agent is really important to understand how thing might happen most of the time, but it should not be used without finesse when you are studying "depression economics".
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
Paljas
Profile Joined October 2011
Germany6926 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-18 14:09:06
September 18 2013 14:08 GMT
#9044
On September 18 2013 15:00 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
HOUSTON (AP) — Thirteen people were arrested during a protest in downtown Houston in front of the offices of the company that is building the Keystone XL pipeline.

Those arrested Monday were part of a group of protesters outside the Houston office of TransCanada Corp. They were protesting the proposed 1,700-mile pipeline, which would carry oil derived from tar sands in Alberta, Canada, to refineries along the Texas Gulf Coast.

The 13 were arrested on misdemeanor trespassing charges after refusing to move from the front of the Canadian company's offices. Police say each person arrested faces up to 180 days in jail and a fine of up to $1,000 if convicted.

The pipeline is still waiting for federal approval. Opponents say they are concerned about potential environmental problems with the pipeline, including possible spills.


Source


should have arrested the people at the other end of the pipe line instead.
fucking oil sands.


oh, and you are still discussing says law?
lol
TL+ Member
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-18 18:01:59
September 18 2013 18:00 GMT
#9045
yes I think it's one of those 'markets are perfect, I proved it a priori, so therefore everything is the government's fault' sort of things

@paljas: 'in land of freedom, criminals arrest YOU!'
shikata ga nai
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
September 18 2013 18:06 GMT
#9046
WASHINGTON -- House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) vowed Wednesday to push ahead with a bill to defund Obamacare or shut down the government -- an effort that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) panned as an "absurd" ploy inspired by tea party "anarchists."

With Congress facing a Sept. 30 deadline to figure out how to keep paying for the federal government, Boehner said in a Capitol Hill news conference that defunding President Barack Obama's health care reform was a key part of that effort.

"We're going to continue to do everything we can to repeal the president's failed health care law," Boehner said. "This week, the House will pass the CR [continuing resolution] that locks the sequester savings in and defunds Obamacare."

Many mainstream Republicans have repeatedly slammed such an approach as "stupid," and Boehner himself has tried to avoid linking Obamacare to a potential government shutdown. But after a summer break in which tea party leaders toured the country pushing for the defunding bid -- and Boehner failed to find a compromise -- the Republican House leader has decided to push ahead.

"We've got a lot of divergent opinions in the caucus," Boehner acknowledged, but suggested that tea party demands were still leading the way. "I was here in the Gingrich era. He had a little plaque that was in his office. It's a management model: 'Listen, learn, help and lead.' We listened to our colleagues over the last week. We have a plan that they're happy with. We're going forward."

But Obama is expected to veto any bill that defunds his signature domestic accomplishment, and Reid has insisted such a measure would not pass the Senate, guaranteeing an upcoming government shutdown.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18826 Posts
September 18 2013 18:07 GMT
#9047
Word on the street is that the Fed is going to leave bond-buying intact. Methinks it has something to do with currying favor among businesses in light of the coming government shutdown.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Rassy
Profile Joined August 2010
Netherlands2308 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-18 18:17:41
September 18 2013 18:11 GMT
#9048
Lol you could see this coming from a mile away,with the sudden jump after that guy pulled back as a fed candidate.
So much frontrunning and insider information trading going on, its one corrupt gang ruling ws.
Dont mind it though
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-18 18:18:52
September 18 2013 18:17 GMT
#9049
we're far too gone into hyperreality to come back now

edit: lol rassy nice edit, don't wanna spark a panic now
shikata ga nai
RCMDVA
Profile Joined July 2011
United States708 Posts
September 18 2013 19:06 GMT
#9050
No interest rate rise until 2015.
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
September 18 2013 19:46 GMT
#9051
On September 18 2013 15:51 Myrddraal wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 18 2013 14:36 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 18 2013 14:06 Kiarip wrote:
On September 18 2013 13:56 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 18 2013 13:17 Kiarip wrote:
On September 18 2013 12:54 farvacola wrote:
On September 18 2013 12:53 Kiarip wrote:
On September 18 2013 12:41 farvacola wrote:
On September 18 2013 12:38 Kiarip wrote:
"a glut can take place only when there are too many means of production applied to one kind of product and not enough to another"

Why?

Edit: Try to use the most simple language possible.


I posted a direct quote that's part of "Say's Law."


It's saying that a glut is caused by a misallocation of resources.

Yes, I know, but I'd like for you to explain why a glut can only take place in the manner described by Say's Law, unless you don't think so yourself.


I think a better idea would be for you to give an example of a glut that's not caused by a misallocation of resources, but if I had to try my argument would look something like this:

1) a) Specialization makes exchange mutually beneficial (increase in value)
b) Specialization increases productivity in a given task (increase in value)

2) Constant trade is a result of 1a, 1b.

3) In order for trade to stop either 1a or 1b need to stop being true.

3a) 1a) stops being true if one of the parties is offering a product that the other one doesn't need (so the trade is no longer mutually beneficial,)

3b) 1b) stops being true if the party specializes in an activity that doesn't have value for any of its potential trading partners.

both 3a) and 3b) are misallocation of resources.

2) I don't see how you are going to get 'constant' trade in the real world. A lot of supply and demand is lumpy.

Ex. Building a sky scraper dumps a lot of supply on the market at once. After, no one builds a new building for a while. It isn't that the building isn't needed (resources misallocated), so much as it's nature demands a stop / go production cycle.


I think this example still operates well outside the range of the economy being in a glut though. If you built a sky-scraper and you filled up all the offices except for 2 floors, then yeah building a second sky-scraper right away probably isn't a good a idea, but you wouldn't say that your office-space economy is in a glut, just because your new skyscraper still has 2 floors that haven't been rented.

But now you have a bunch of unemployed construction workers and under utilized construction firms who are no longer buying as many goods and services.

Before they can be redeployed they can cause supply/demand to fall throughout the greater economy as 'gluts' in their would be demand appear.

Edit: Construction guys like trucks but don't buy when unemployed. Now you have a glut of trucks on dealer's lots. The dealer cuts prices / cancels orders. Now everyone in the entire supply chain can't buy as many trucks either and the cycle reinforces itself.


I'm pretty sure by constant trade he didn't mean constant trade within each sector, but overall there will always be trade. I'm not necessarily saying that I agree with him, but to disprove what he is saying with an example, you would need to show how something could cause a glut in all sectors at once.

Besides, wouldn't your skyscraper example only result in a glut if there was a glut in the construction industry before the skyscraper was built, or if for some other reason while it was being built there became less demand for construction?

Beats me. I think Say's law is too pedantic for me. I'm throwing my hands up in the air right now.

...

In other news, the fuss over the Fed tapering was way overblown. What has QE done anyways? Not much? So what would a slowdown in QE really do other than less not much?
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
September 18 2013 19:49 GMT
#9052
seriously jonny?

it doesn't do anything real, but it inflates asset prices. So if they stop it the asset prices will go down and all the rentiers will be sad and we will have to actually confront the fact that our economy is broken as fuck
shikata ga nai
Dapper_Cad
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United Kingdom964 Posts
September 18 2013 19:53 GMT
#9053
This is from a while back when the thread was about prisons and not spherical trade events occurring in a vacuum. It's a lesson on why I should refrain from impulsive posts. Especially in threads that grow too quickly to be practical for me to follow.

On September 16 2013 11:08 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 16 2013 10:35 Dapper_Cad wrote:
On September 16 2013 09:42 Leporello wrote:
On September 16 2013 09:16 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 16 2013 09:10 Leporello wrote:
On September 16 2013 09:08 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On September 16 2013 09:03 Leporello wrote:
On September 16 2013 09:01 sam!zdat wrote:
yes but the point is that getting more healthcare means you are getting sicker. Getting more healthcare is a bad thing not a good thing, it would be better not to get sick at all. But getting sick and getting healthcare increases gdp so therefore it is a good thing, so therefore giving people diabetes and then treating them for it is good for the economy. Go capitalism


Same thing with prisons. "Privatizing is good because it creates incentive", so we create incentive for "crime" to exist. Everything in our prisons is privatized and outsourced. We have the largest incarceration percantage in the world, but if we actually decreased crime, that would mean someone loses a government contract.

Few prisons are privatized...

Most prisons are de-facto privatized. The food service, the utility management, even the phone-systems which operate on a collect-call-only basis.

Does that differ from other countries?

My understanding is that private prisons started becoming more prevalent as prison populations grew. Not that private prisons started cropping up before prison populations.

Edit: Most things governments around the world do rely on private enterprises. Public schools buy supplies from private businesses. It doesn't mean that public schools are really private schools.


Oh I agree. We need the military industry too. These are necessities, but not all the time. Using the phone-prison example, there is no need for these families to be paying over $1 a minute to make a phone-call. There is no choice for them, as "consumers", in how to talk to their imprisoned family member, they have to pay this private company whatever they charge. It's a government-run private-monopoly. Our military is full of these as well. No-bid contracts, or contracts that when fulfilled, incentivize waste and price-gouging.

It's just that with schools, on the other hand, they get a lot of attention and a lot of oversight. Despite all the hand-wringing conservatives make over waste in public education, it doesn't really exist in comparison. Most schools operate on reasonable budgets. And any incentive we can create from private industry towards education is a good thing, everyone would agree.

Meanwhile, we're creating incentive for prisons and war-machines, but not giving that same level of oversight, sometimes much less.


I don't think you even needed to concede the first point. From what I can see, and I might have misread the data I've been able to scrounge up, about 1 in 2 prisoners in the U.S. is being held in a private prison.

In 2006 there were a little under 250,000 incarcerated americans.

Source

In 2011 130,000 American's were incarcerated by for-profit companies.

Source

You have some numbers wrong. There's over 2mm incarcerated Americans (only 250,000 would be awesome).

[image loading]
Link

~ 5% are in private prisons.


Yep. I read 250,000 on a graph that read 2,500,000. Hence my 50% being an order of magnitude out. My bad and thanks Jonny. I did say that I don't think private prisons are a great explanation for the explosive growth in incarceration rates in the U.S., that goes ten times as much now. However I still don't think private prisons are a good idea for fairly self evident reasons.

On September 16 2013 11:32 aksfjh wrote:
As for you rubes arguing that the graphs show the "same thing," no, they don't. The first is very potentially misleading. That it happens to not be nearly as misleading as it could be is no saving grace for it. Showing it as per-capita (or something similar) is the correct approach to gauge increase incarceration RATES.


Rube seems strong. I don't think I went out to intentionally mislead people. The reason I gave myself for using this graph:

[image loading]


rather than this graph:

[image loading]

was simply that that it fit on the page. While I'm sure the redness and spikiness of the first was likely a factor in my decision making it's worth noting that the second graph is directly under the first on the wikipage which I did source. It's also worth noting that unless either the U.S. population is more criminal than any other developed nation, or the U.S. has a much lower crime rate than other developed nation, (and if anyone has any data on either of these points I'd be interested) that it's very easy to draw the same conclusions from either graph.

The U.S. criminal justice system incarcerates far too many people and it started doing this in the 1980s.

From some further reading around the subject it seems mandatory minimums in drug and immigration cases might be part of the problem.

And with that, I'm going to paddle in the far shallower (and slower) waters of the U.K. politics (mega)thread.





But he is never making short-term prediction, everyone of his prediction are based on fundenmentals, but he doesn't exactly know when it will happen... So using these kind of narrowed "who-is-right" empirical analysis makes little sense.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
September 18 2013 19:58 GMT
#9054
At a packed public hearing of the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) compared the war on drugs to the racist policies of the Jim Crow era.

"If I told you that one out of three African-American males is forbidden by law from voting, you might think I was talking about Jim Crow 50 years ago," Paul said. "Yet today, a third of African-American males are still prevented from voting because of the war on drugs."

"The majority of illegal drug users and dealers nationwide are white," he said, "but three-fourths of all people in prison for drug offenses are African American or Latino."

Paul was arguing against mandatory minimum sentencing laws, which require judges and prosecutors to impose severe penalties against those convicted of low-level drug crimes.

A growing number of conservatives have criticized such laws in recent years. At the hearing, Marc Levin, the policy director of the Right on Crime Initiative at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, a conservative group that advocates for prison reforms, noted that Texas has reduced its prison population and crime rate while expanding its use of recidivism-reducing programs and other alternatives to incarceration.

Brett Tolman, a former federal prosecutor in Utah, testified that the threat of long mandatory minimum sentences has not led to the identification of high-level leaders of drug organizations by low-level offenders. "Kingpins are smarter than that," he explained. "They insulate themselves so the 'mules' and street-corner dealers either do not know who they are or do not have enough information to lead to their discovery, let alone prosecution."

Paul and Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) are the authors of the Justice Safety Valve Act of 2013, which would allow judges to deliver sentences that deviate from the mandatory minimums in certain cases.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
September 18 2013 19:59 GMT
#9055
On September 19 2013 04:49 sam!zdat wrote:
seriously jonny?

it doesn't do anything real, but it inflates asset prices. So if they stop it the asset prices will go down and all the rentiers will be sad and we will have to actually confront the fact that our economy is broken as fuck

I don't think it does nothing real. It is good that people with mortgages send less to the bank due to lower rates.

It's a peculiar dynamic that I can't say I have fully sorted out in my head. Yes if you own assets a higher asset price is good. But your cash flow from that asset hasn't changed, so if you are holding the asset long term, the difference is more on paper than anything.

Ex. if you own a bond to maturity, the bond could quadruple in value and you wouldn't be any better off once the bond comes due.
RCMDVA
Profile Joined July 2011
United States708 Posts
September 18 2013 19:59 GMT
#9056
Moves in the housing market basically follows the 10 year bond. Since the average homeowner stays in a house around 10 years.

The recent rise from 1.8% to 2.99% in the 10 year shut down new mortgages.

Taper would tend to cause rates to keep rising.

sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
September 18 2013 20:13 GMT
#9057
yes it's on paper that's the point

the purpose of QE is to make it seem like we aren't fucked. Thing is we have to pay banks for the privilege of lying to ourselves about this. Basically we are manufacturing a bubble intentionally because our 'economy' runs on bubbles

is rand paul trying to get me to like him or smth? Weird
shikata ga nai
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
September 18 2013 20:17 GMT
#9058
On September 19 2013 05:13 sam!zdat wrote:
yes it's on paper that's the point

the purpose of QE is to make it seem like we aren't fucked. Thing is we have to pay banks for the privilege of lying to ourselves about this. Basically we are manufacturing a bubble intentionally because our 'economy' runs on bubbles

is rand paul trying to get me to like him or smth? Weird

I don't follow. How are we paying banks? What bubble are we manufacturing?
sc2superfan101
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
3583 Posts
September 18 2013 20:23 GMT
#9059
On September 19 2013 04:58 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
At a packed public hearing of the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) compared the war on drugs to the racist policies of the Jim Crow era.

"If I told you that one out of three African-American males is forbidden by law from voting, you might think I was talking about Jim Crow 50 years ago," Paul said. "Yet today, a third of African-American males are still prevented from voting because of the war on drugs."

"The majority of illegal drug users and dealers nationwide are white," he said, "but three-fourths of all people in prison for drug offenses are African American or Latino."

Paul was arguing against mandatory minimum sentencing laws, which require judges and prosecutors to impose severe penalties against those convicted of low-level drug crimes.

A growing number of conservatives have criticized such laws in recent years. At the hearing, Marc Levin, the policy director of the Right on Crime Initiative at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, a conservative group that advocates for prison reforms, noted that Texas has reduced its prison population and crime rate while expanding its use of recidivism-reducing programs and other alternatives to incarceration.

Brett Tolman, a former federal prosecutor in Utah, testified that the threat of long mandatory minimum sentences has not led to the identification of high-level leaders of drug organizations by low-level offenders. "Kingpins are smarter than that," he explained. "They insulate themselves so the 'mules' and street-corner dealers either do not know who they are or do not have enough information to lead to their discovery, let alone prosecution."

Paul and Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) are the authors of the Justice Safety Valve Act of 2013, which would allow judges to deliver sentences that deviate from the mandatory minimums in certain cases.


Source

Rand Paul makes some damn good arguments on this issue.

Inner city black kid goes to prison for having a sack of weed while the white college kid gets a pass because of daddy's paycheck... kind of bullshit.
My fake plants died because I did not pretend to water them.
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-18 20:38:43
September 18 2013 20:36 GMT
#9060
remember how you were just talking about asset prices being inflated on paper? Isn't that a bubble?

my impression was that QE transfers cash to the balance sheets of banks, which they then hold because real interest rates are less than zero, so they make money by sitting on the cash. Or something. What the fuck do I know I'm an english major.

I'm still pretty sure that QE is free money for pigs anyway. Why else would the stock market be soaring and the rich getting richer than they've ever been while my generation still has no jobs and never will? Economy improving my ass. Fuck you obama, why don't you go work part time making fucking lattes all day with shit benefits like half the college educated people I know? Job creation my left testicle, the only jobs being created are corporate wage slave service industry bullshit. If we gotta print money lets use it to build some fucking infrastructure and hire teachers not just hand it over to banksters and all wise innovating geniuses and hope they will be nice enough to put it to some good use. Fuck the private sector where's my revolution
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