EPT300 delegates
200
100?
It should also be noted Sanders reddit sub has been getting raided by Trump and to a lesser extent Hillary supporters to try to discourage us.
US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3397
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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23298 Posts
300 delegates 200 100? It should also be noted Sanders reddit sub has been getting raided by Trump and to a lesser extent Hillary supporters to try to discourage us. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12262 Posts
On March 19 2016 05:32 zlefin wrote: Sensible, possibly; on the other hand, he could come to an agreement with Hillary, and adjust his message, so that it's clear he'll be backing her after the votes are all in; but he wants people to have a chance to vote on his message: then he can focus on raising enthusiasm in his supporters, so that (with a few concessions from Hillary toward their goals) they'll go out to vote in November. On a non-sensible note; I'd say he should stay in, without spending money, just so that everyone in the Primaries that have yet to happen feel their votes are being heard. I don't think anyone is waiting to see if Bernie is going to endorse Hillary after he gives up. Everyone knows he'll do that already. The Bernie people who aren't willing to vote for Hillary aren't waiting for his say so to do it, it's not like there's some sort of uncertainty about what he would want you to do in Clinton v Trump. | ||
Soularion
Canada2764 Posts
On March 19 2016 06:09 GreenHorizons wrote: I'm curious how far ahead people who think the race is over think Hillary will finish? 300 delegates 200 100? It should also be noted Sanders reddit sub has been getting raided by Trump and to a lesser extent Hillary supporters to try to discourage us. Depends. If Bernie is able to muster a real last push, I think he can get down to ~100. If not, he's gonna get crushed in Arizona and NY and end up like 500-600 delegates behind. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On March 19 2016 06:09 GreenHorizons wrote: I'm curious how far ahead people who think the race is over think Hillary will finish? 300 delegates 200 100? It should also be noted Sanders reddit sub has been getting raided by Trump and to a lesser extent Hillary supporters to try to discourage us. Realistically Hillary will be 600+ ahead for pledged delegates, over have more or less all the super delegates. Like I said quite a few times now, Hillary could disappear from the face of the earth for 3 months and she'd have no problem winning the nomination. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23298 Posts
On March 19 2016 06:14 Soularion wrote: Depends. If Bernie is able to muster a real last push, I think he can get down to ~100. If not, he's gonna get crushed in Arizona and NY and end up like 500-600 delegates behind. Anyone else think Bernie can get within ~100? Or that Hillary could open up her lead to ~600? | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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Mohdoo
United States15714 Posts
On March 19 2016 06:09 GreenHorizons wrote: I'm curious how far ahead people who think the race is over think Hillary will finish? 300 delegates 200 100? It should also be noted Sanders reddit sub has been getting raided by Trump and to a lesser extent Hillary supporters to try to discourage us. I think that in the unlikely event that Sanders carries his campaign post April, Sanders loses by 80 delegates. Edit: This is assuming he has a big upset next Tuesday. I think we are going to see a plummet in his voter turnout if next Tuesday just makes things awkward. I've already seen a huge shift in Facebook regarding Bernie. Tons of people now saying "Yeah, I still think it'd be cool if he won, but I think Clinton will be great too. Glad he ran though!" and other similar things. I would go so far as to say it is no longer cool to like Bernie things on Facebook and that the NYT piece on his chances made people lose a ton of hope. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
Great delegate race! Here's a competition organised and sponsored by yours truly to determine who can guess final delegate counts most accurately on TL. The rules are as follows: Vote on the number of delegates each candidate will secure by the convention. Give an exact number (replies such as ~200 are interpreted as exactly 200, and the same goes for all similar obfuscation) At the end of this primary season, three different TL members will be awarded prizes. Those will be awarded to the persons who a) guess the GOP winner's delegate count most accurately, b) guess the Dem winner's delegate count most accurately, and c) have the most accurate average delegate distribution between Clinton, Cruz, Kasich, Trump and Sanders. If a person scores best in several categories, they will forfeit their prize in consecutive categories to whoever has the next best answer. If there's a tie, a coin will be flipped to determine the winner. No answers will be accepted after March 21st at 00.00 GMT. (That means you have three days to participate!) Here's a link to the google form where you can submit your answers: http://goo.gl/forms/ql85HLl4lz I'll be the one awarding the prizes, so it's most likely to be steam gift cards, but there's room to negotiate so everyone will be treated fairly. + Show Spoiler + Why have awards in the first place, you ask? I believe that a little bit of incentive makes people work harder, and I want this to be a close race. Happy competing! | ||
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
On March 19 2016 06:09 GreenHorizons wrote: I'm curious how far ahead people who think the race is over think Hillary will finish? 300 delegates 200 100? It should also be noted Sanders reddit sub has been getting raided by Trump and to a lesser extent Hillary supporters to try to discourage us. The Hillary subreddit is like 8K people dude. We've been brigaded on an almost daily basis, so I find it hilarious that you complain about it now though I don't condone such behavior. I have a nice excel model to calculate popular vote percentage based on demographics, i'll update it a bit and see what it spits out so I can estimate delegates. My guess is the delta will be approximately what it is now. Bernie can carry smaller states if turnout doesn't collapse, but the only big state I see him winning is Washington. New York, New Jersey and Maryland are probably blowouts for Hillary, California a bit closer and Pennsylvania in her favor as well. Down the list, Wisconsin and Indiana may be somewhat more favorable for Bernie as well. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23298 Posts
On March 19 2016 06:46 ticklishmusic wrote: The Hillary subreddit is like 8K people dude. We've been brigaded on an almost daily basis, so I find it hilarious that you complain about it now though I don't condone such behavior. I have a nice excel model to calculate popular vote percentage based on demographics, i'll update it a bit and see what it spits out so I can estimate delegates. My guess is the delta will be approximately what it is now. I wasn't complaining, I was saying if you aren't a frequent/consistent participant one could easily be given an inaccurate impression of what's been going on there. For the record, I don't condone such behavior either. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23298 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ~15k people | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21797 Posts
On March 19 2016 07:03 GreenHorizons wrote: Little rally in Utah ~15k people Getting people at rallies has never been Bernies problem. His problem is still getting people to actually vote for him. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23298 Posts
On March 19 2016 07:06 Gorsameth wrote: Getting people at rallies has never been Bernies problem. His problem is still getting people to actually vote for him. Yes and no, he's got a hell of a lot more votes than just about anyone anywhere outside of his supporters expected, but it doesn't look like a loss of enthusiasm. The other part that's important is these rally's are now organizing events. Many of these people will be canvassing right after the event. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15714 Posts
On March 19 2016 07:10 GreenHorizons wrote: Yes and no, he's got a hell of a lot more votes than just about anyone anywhere outside of his supporters expected, but it doesn't look like a loss of enthusiasm. The other part that's important is these rally's are now organizing events. Many of these people will be canvassing right after the event. Is that a change? It will make him do better than he has so far? What are you actually seeing happen here? | ||
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Luolis
Finland7118 Posts
On March 19 2016 04:30 Liquid`Drone wrote: exactly. Nobody talking about social democracy today is talking about anything in Russia nearly 100 years ago. They are talking about the principles that have governed Norway/Sweden/Denmark for a majority of the past 70 years. (Also kinda Finland, but Finland is weird and I'm not qualified to speak on her behalf. ) As far as i know, i think Finland is pretty much in the same boat as the scandinavian countries on social democracy. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23298 Posts
On March 19 2016 07:49 Mohdoo wrote: Is that a change? It will make him do better than he has so far? What are you actually seeing happen here? The strategy was to slow his campaign to a stop. It didn't work on Bernie and it didn't work on his supporters in upcoming states it appears. You all know as well as anyone that most of the voting public won't understand the difference between winning and winning enough delegates state by state. Losing 8-10 states basically in a row will not look good for her to the general voting public regardless of the delegate count. We'll see though. I have a feeling there's at least one more curveball coming before Cali/NY that could change everything on both sides of the race. | ||
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SK.Testie
Canada11084 Posts
Minus the massive amount of sadness that enters your heart from seeing it. I listened to that entire Bernie rally with utter disappointment. +1 for attempting fairness from The Waltons, +1 for the Cayman Islands. -10 for the rest. | ||
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farvacola
United States18832 Posts
A jury on Friday sided with ex-pro wrestler Hulk Hogan and awarded him $115 million in his sex tape lawsuit against Gawker Media. The jurors reached the decision Friday evening, less than six hours after they began deliberations. The trial lasted two weeks. Hogan, whose given name is Terry Bollea, sued Gawker for $100 million for posting a video in 2012 of him having sex with his former best friend's wife. Hogan contended it was a violation of his privacy. Gawker's editors contended the video and an accompanying post was a newsworthy commentary on the ordinariness of celebrity sex videos. Jury Awards Hulk Hogan $115 Million in Gawker Sex-Tape Suit | ||
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
Before the Phoenix rally Bernie walks out on an interview. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23298 Posts
On March 19 2016 08:36 ticklishmusic wrote: http://www.12news.com/news/local/valley/ahead-of-phoenix-rally-sanders-abruptly-ends-12-news-interview/87425186 Before the Phoenix rally Bernie walks out on an interview. He said he got 4 minutes and he got 4 minutes. EDIT: This is why I don't take your complaints about attacks seriously (among other reasons). | ||
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