EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 2636
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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On December 10 2015 13:23 Plansix wrote: The only thing more amusing than Trump are the people who claim that he has "solid credentials" when he shows a limited understanding of the most basic things. Like its not ok so say you want to bang your own daughter. if trump doesnt change his game up he's done. but dude has to have some policy advisors. could wonk it up for a bit. problem is rep primary is such a clusterfuck and trump is stuck because he is not conservative enough lol | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On December 10 2015 13:29 oneofthem wrote: if trump doesnt change his game up he's done. but dude has to have some policy advisors. could wonk it up for a bit. problem is rep primary is such a clusterfuck and trump is stuck because he is not conservative enough lol He is done and no amount of changing is game plan will get him anything. When the reality of the primary comes around 3 months from now he will have to win states and real primaries. Not national polls of questionable origin. Not the reality show. | ||
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Eskendereya
United States97 Posts
On December 10 2015 13:36 Plansix wrote: He is done and no amount of changing is game plan will get him anything. When the reality of the primary comes around 3 months from now he will have to win states and real primaries. Not national polls of questionable origin. Not the reality show. Will you admit here on these forums that you were wrong if Trump does in fact blow the primaries away? From the controlled main stream media's perception and narrative, you would think Trump is done, finished, as they've pushed every time Trump has had controversy but it never happens. The real reality is that Trump has an unbelievably large following, much bigger than people realize and he looks to cruise right through the primaries. There hasn't been a candidate this polarizing maybe ever. He's the only one people feel will bring real much needed change in regards to trade, immigration, leadership, foreign policy, etc. Something our current politicians are failing to fix. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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Eskendereya
United States97 Posts
On December 10 2015 13:48 oneofthem wrote: trump can still win by mobilizing his supporters. this is where having a lot of disposable liquidity would propel him. the gop should embrace trump though id hate to see a boring nontrump election year GOP Establishment will never embrace Trump. They'd rather Hillary win the election than Trump %100, no doubts about it. GOP Establishment only cares about control and they can't control Trump. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
On December 10 2015 13:27 Nyxisto wrote: Can someone explain to me how this whole primary stuff works anyway? Does the party base at some point vote for the candidate or who decides who will become the candidate? They're not seriously going to send Trump into the election? States vote at differing times through the beginning of 2016 through the spring. States have delegates that get assigned to candidates based on the vote. Iowa is the first state, and is a caucus not normal voting, which means, basically, only people who really care get counted. Typically, after Iowa several poorly performing candidates drop out of the race. However, some candidates have New Hampshire or South Carolina (2nd and 3rd states) strategies and stay in the race. Usually, after those three the field gets defined as a 1,2, or 3 horse race. Then the remaining states vote. In most cases, a candidate emerges with the majority of delegates and gets the nomination. There is a possibility, however, of a "brokered convention" where no one candidate gets a majority, and candidates/delegates end up negotiating for the spot (this has never happened during my lifetime). | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States24354 Posts
People have way too much faith that somehow suddenly the crazy crap he's been saying this whole time is going to turn off the people who are going to vote. People seem to fail to realize that not only is Trump appealing to likely voters, he's appealing even more to Republicans who feel like the party is beholden to corruption and haven't voted in years (aren't being polled). If those folks are animated enough to actually buck some trends and vote with any significance the republican nomination will be over quickly. Despite the leadership coming out against Trump's lunacy only about 1/3 of Republicans are opposed to it, many of them, not strongly. As much as I wish America wasn't the kind of country where Trump could win the nomination, I'm afraid I'll be the one who's surprised he doesn't win. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On December 10 2015 14:31 GreenHorizons wrote: Trump Wins every state except maybe Iowa. If he loses Iowa it drags out to Super Tuesday, if he sweeps everything before Super Tuesday it's over he'll win it hands down. People have way too much faith that somehow suddenly the crazy crap he's been saying this whole time is going to turn off the people who are going to vote. People seem to fail to realize that not only is Trump appealing to likely voters, he's appealing even more to Republicans who feel like the party is beholden to corruption and haven't voted in years (aren't being polled). If those folks are animated enough to actually buck some trends and vote with any significance the republican nomination will be over quickly. Despite the leadership coming out against Trump's lunacy only about 1/3 of Republicans are opposed to it, many of them, not strongly. As much as I wish America wasn't the kind of country where Trump could win the nomination, I'm afraid I'll be the one who's surprised he doesn't win. The current polls aren't of likely voters though, I don't think. At least 538 said they were mostly of Republican-leaning adults and registered voters. Maybe that's changed since their November 23rd article. This and the fact that Trump polls ~7-10 points lower in live interview polls compared to online ones make an Iowa win pretty dubious I think, since it's caucus based. And if he places 3rd there I don't see him recovering after becoming what he has called over and over again a "LOSER." Second would be salvageable. We'll see though (I personally think his confusing a PR campaign for a political campaign will torpedo a lot of his chances). If Rubio or Cruz bows out after Iowa I can't see him carrying New Hampshire, either, but Rubio bowing out is really unlikely. Edit: After checking, I think the shift to likely Iowa voters might have started in late November/early December...and coincided with Cruz's bump being large enough to Edit2: The other problem Trump may face is that he is only polling around 25%-35%. The other candidates ALL (okay, maybe not Carson) hate his guts. A plurality will not get you nominated when the party utterly loathes you, and the states are proportional until March (after Super Tuesday). | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On December 10 2015 13:58 cLutZ wrote: States vote at differing times through the beginning of 2016 through the spring. States have delegates that get assigned to candidates based on the vote. Iowa is the first state, and is a caucus not normal voting, which means, basically, only people who really care get counted. Typically, after Iowa several poorly performing candidates drop out of the race. However, some candidates have New Hampshire or South Carolina (2nd and 3rd states) strategies and stay in the race. Usually, after those three the field gets defined as a 1,2, or 3 horse race. Then the remaining states vote. In most cases, a candidate emerges with the majority of delegates and gets the nomination. There is a possibility, however, of a "brokered convention" where no one candidate gets a majority, and candidates/delegates end up negotiating for the spot (this has never happened during my lifetime). Just to extend, Iowa and New Hampshire vote first for primaries. Trump leads in those states (#2 to Cruz in Iowa in one pull) two months before voting. So when you ask, Trump srsly?, answer is yes in primaries. He's a serious candidate. Clinton and Sanders are plus or minus 5 in national polling (PPP for example. If you were hoping for him to be laughed out of town, think again. Neither prospective challenger can even net a 10% edge against what some hoped would be an unserious candidate. | ||
KwarK
United States44296 Posts
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DickMcFanny
Ireland1076 Posts
Is it pretty balance or do women vote more often / less often than men? | ||
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DickMcFanny
Ireland1076 Posts
On December 10 2015 13:50 Eskendereya wrote: GOP Establishment will never embrace Trump. They'd rather Hillary win the election than Trump %100, no doubts about it. GOP Establishment only cares about control and they can't control Trump. What are you even talking about? They do control him, look at his policy. He's just as obedient to the NRA and Big Oil as Bush and Cruz are. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8187 Posts
On December 10 2015 13:23 Plansix wrote: The only thing more amusing than Trump are the people who claim that he has "solid credentials" when he shows a limited understanding of the most basic things. Like its not ok so say you want to bang your own daughter. I believe that it's something terribly broken with american politics and their mentality: the idea that if you get very very rich you are smart and competent and that you will be great at running the country. In general, and you can read that in Tocqueville, there is a general notion in the states that money is success and that successful people deserve their success, because of how intelligent and capable they must be to have got there. In my opinion both assertion are more than debatable, and I think that those ideas are the reason why the US have become (or always been) such a ploutocratic country. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France8187 Posts
On December 10 2015 13:48 oneofthem wrote: trump can still win by mobilizing his supporters. this is where having a lot of disposable liquidity would propel him. the gop should embrace trump though id hate to see a boring nontrump election year I think you fail to realize that elections are not an entertainment and that the future of your country, if not of the world, is in balance. I'd rather have you being "bored" (wtf really??) than having a lunatic at the white house. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On December 10 2015 21:29 Biff The Understudy wrote: I think you fail to realize that elections are not an entertainment and that the future of your country, if not of the world, is in balance. I'd rather have you being "bored" (wtf really??) than having a lunatic at the white house. nah it's more important that i am entertained | ||
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