On October 13 2020 22:40 Anc13nt wrote: i think Rush can definitely win. There's not as much random advantage in RvT. As long as Flash doesn't get terran too many times, Rush has a good chance.
Nope, 67% chance Flash gets Terran/Protoss. Flash Protoss is freaking good and his ZvT is no slouch either I remember he went toe to toe with Light.
What now? I don't suppose you know if there's a VOD?
It's somewhere in Flash's youtube channel, sorry will be hard to find.
This game?
Nope there was another way longer game like more than 30mins
On October 14 2020 07:03 razorsuKe wrote: This really is the worst possible outcome for ro8 brackets, all the favorites on 1 side.
Any combination of those 4 for finals would be better than what we got.
All the favourites are on one side? What is that supposed to mean?
Literally everyone bar Rush is a favourite and Rush is a favourite in his own right as the semi newbie who's breaking out.
Yeah it's a nonsense comment. The defending champ Zero is on one side. Soulkey has won a KSL and is also on that side. Soma Snow Flash are on the other.
On October 13 2020 22:44 Garrl wrote: We saw Rush get through his group with only TvTs... I think he could definitely take a match off Flash in a tvt if he randoms it. Probably couldn't win a bo5 if Flash was still terran, but I think it's doable.
Rush is solid, but he is one of those players with nearly zero chance to win a single TvT against Flash.
I was really hoping for Shuttle to get through tonight. He's usually 10 times better with his shuttle usage. He just hung his Shuttle/Reavers out to dry in front of Hydras.
Haha seriously, this has been season of upsets but Snow beating Soma or moreso Best beating Zero? No way. Soma vs Zero/Soulkey is most likely what we get for finals.
I absolutely love the brackets, and I am excited for every single match. A part of me also believes that if Rush finally has his nerves in order and stops choking, he has a legitimate chance against Flash. While they have only played 4 spon matches of tvt in the last 3 months, the results of those ended up at 2-2, so he has a chance. Rush's tvp is solid and while Flash also has good pvt I feel like that mu is probably 50/50 at worst. Rush's tvz is fantastic, and he should be a big favourite over Flash's zerg. So there is upset potential, even if the most likely outcome is Flash 3-1.
Soma should be a huge favourite over Snow, their h2h since July is 29-13, which is quite significant. However, I do think Snow handles nerves better, and his performance in the group stage was absolutely solid. Being a degenerate gambler I believe in a 3-1 for Soma.
Larva vs Soulkey is so hard to call, there are some fairly wonky maps where neither player will have a lot of experience playing zvz. They have only played 3 games since July (2-1 for Larva). Larva is not the best player in the tournament, but he feels quite solid and consistent in his performance overall. Soulkey is very volatile and has a history of going 12h into 9p when it matters. I suspect that if Soulkey starts losing he will go on lifetilt, whereas if he wins the first game or two he will ride that streak to victory. Personally I am hoping for SK to win 3-2.
Zero vs Best is probably the best matchup of this entire round, and I think we will see the absolute highest level of zvp possible. In my opinion Zero has had the best zvp for a significant amount of time, and at first glance you might consider him a massive favourite simply because he crushes all protoss players. However, that would be a mistake. Since July the score between them in sponsored matches is 21-18..for Best. He is actually the protoss that does the best against Zero, and is even sporting a winning record against him, despite having a losing record against all the other top zergs (5-12 action, 13-15 soma, 19-31 hero, 9-11 SK, 11-15 Larva). I will absolutely predict that this match *should* go to the 5th and final map, with Zero emerging victorious 3-2.
I assume that the format is 1 map veto each, and then the remaining 5 maps are randomized and played -- if that is the case, look to every p to ban Benzene in pvz, and every Z to ban Plasma. Which leaves a fairly balanced map pool.
On October 13 2020 22:40 Anc13nt wrote: i think Rush can definitely win. There's not as much random advantage in RvT. As long as Flash doesn't get terran too many times, Rush has a good chance.
Nope, 67% chance Flash gets Terran/Protoss. Flash Protoss is freaking good and his ZvT is no slouch either I remember he went toe to toe with Light.
What now? I don't suppose you know if there's a VOD?
It's somewhere in Flash's youtube channel, sorry will be hard to find.
So hard to predict... I change my mind about Flash vs Rush being one sided... And if ever we get Rush vs Soma, then ASL10CHAMPRUSH has a serious shot... On the other hand, hard to see random Flash winning a bo5 against soma. If Snow somehow manages to beat soma (i believe he has better chances than Best against ZerO), then hes a big favorite against Rush but a dog against god. What im saying is that i can see a way to reach the finals for all those guys on the left side of the bracket.
Can Best win ZerO? I say no. Absolutely not. For all the reasons that you already know. Or consider yourself spoiled. Probably means that ZerO will win the right side. I dont count out Larva or Sk though, as both guys can play the match up, but i gotta go with the mutal control here, so ZerO to the finals.
On October 15 2020 01:58 Avi-Love wrote: I absolutely love the brackets, and I am excited for every single match. A part of me also believes that if Rush finally has his nerves in order and stops choking, he has a legitimate chance against Flash. While they have only played 4 spon matches of tvt in the last 3 months, the results of those ended up at 2-2, so he has a chance. Rush's tvp is solid and while Flash also has good pvt I feel like that mu is probably 50/50 at worst. Rush's tvz is fantastic, and he should be a big favourite over Flash's zerg. So there is upset potential, even if the most likely outcome is Flash 3-1.
Soma should be a huge favourite over Snow, their h2h since July is 29-13, which is quite significant. However, I do think Snow handles nerves better, and his performance in the group stage was absolutely solid. Being a degenerate gambler I believe in a 3-1 for Soma.
Larva vs Soulkey is so hard to call, there are some fairly wonky maps where neither player will have a lot of experience playing zvz. They have only played 3 games since July (2-1 for Larva). Larva is not the best player in the tournament, but he feels quite solid and consistent in his performance overall. Soulkey is very volatile and has a history of going 12h into 9p when it matters. I suspect that if Soulkey starts losing he will go on lifetilt, whereas if he wins the first game or two he will ride that streak to victory. Personally I am hoping for SK to win 3-2.
Zero vs Best is probably the best matchup of this entire round, and I think we will see the absolute highest level of zvp possible. In my opinion Zero has had the best zvp for a significant amount of time, and at first glance you might consider him a massive favourite simply because he crushes all protoss players. However, that would be a mistake. Since July the score between them in sponsored matches is 21-18..for Best. He is actually the protoss that does the best against Zero, and is even sporting a winning record against him, despite having a losing record against all the other top zergs (5-12 action, 13-15 soma, 19-31 hero, 9-11 SK, 11-15 Larva). I will absolutely predict that this match *should* go to the 5th and final map, with Zero emerging victorious 3-2.
I assume that the format is 1 map veto each, and then the remaining 5 maps are randomized and played -- if that is the case, look to every p to ban Benzene in pvz, and every Z to ban Plasma. Which leaves a fairly balanced map pool.
The map selection is different for the Ro8. One player picks maps 1 and 3, the other picks maps 2 and 4; map 5 is chosen at random from the remaining three. Who gets to pick first is also random.
There's no reason for protosses to ban Benzene. All they need to do is to watch the first game Stork played on this map when it first appeared, and they will quickly understand how favorable the map is. And then they have plasma too. Zergs have all the other maps.
As predictions go, Soma will crush Snow, 3-0 or 3-1. Best will give a good fight against Zero, and he has a decent chance to advance. Larva vs Soulkey is a coin flip, but regardless of who advances will lose in the semifinals. And Flash will win against Rush, only to be owned by Soma in the semifinals.
Yeah pretty strong chance we have three zergs in the semis here. Snow has the best chance of winning. Can’t see Best taking out Zero. I hope Flash wins. I want the random party to roll on.
Soulkey has a pretty awful zvz record over the past few years, I consider Soulkey to be a much better player than Larva but Larvas zvz feels stronger than Soulkeys to me.
On October 14 2020 07:03 razorsuKe wrote: This really is the worst possible outcome for ro8 brackets, all the favorites on 1 side.
Any combination of those 4 for finals would be better than what we got.
All the favourites are on one side? What is that supposed to mean?
Literally everyone bar Rush is a favourite and Rush is a favourite in his own right as the semi newbie who's breaking out.
Yeah it's a nonsense comment. The defending champ Zero is on one side. Soulkey has won a KSL and is also on that side. Soma Snow Flash are on the other.
soulkey's win is so ancient that giving any relevance to it today is just bogus. just look at people's comments before the r16.
Larva and Best are also nowhere near favourites for the title. Yet, one of the zergs will get to the final on the back of ZvZ (even if it includes beating Best in Zero's case its a ZvP against Best, come one).
I tried to follow the tutorial in the how to make a live reporting thread and failed horribly. You are welcome to give it a shot. Mine was the worst in tl.net history - no doubt.
EPT
