[ASL10] Ro16 Group D

On October 13 2020 19:35 VioleTAK wrote:
The bar is so high from group C, that this game is making me sleepy

On October 13 2020 19:39 BLinD-RawR wrote:


hes getting more ahead taking more bases, he doesn't need to do anything, he lost 24 drones and it means nothing.

On October 13 2020 20:01 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
that hidden ht move was the sickest.. wow.. pimpest plays candidate for sure

GG!

On October 13 2020 20:38 goody153 wrote:
Didnt really expect Soma to come out of the group first

Man all games today have been stomps

On October 13 2020 20:45 BLinD-RawR wrote:


thats the thing with random, also maps will be selected ahead of time and will be known to the public too.

On October 13 2020 20:47 abuse wrote:
i haven't really played in a long time but why is everything in the game so bright?
The zealots and hydras look terrible and morphing zerg structures look straight up white x.x

On October 13 2020 21:11 BLinD-RawR wrote:
SK wins via an excellent lurker contain

On October 13 2020 21:16 AttackZerg wrote:
Mini got away with a greedy mini move, he is dangerous in these spots.

On October 13 2020 21:49 outscar wrote:
Shame, Mini is back to slump. SK played like animal, his macro was on point!

On October 13 2020 22:12 Terrorbladder wrote:
Man SK held his 3rd really well

On October 13 2020 22:13 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
what the heck are the protoss players actually doing vs zerg today..???

first they just push a little, get some kind of advantage and then just sit around doing nothing letting zerg macro like crazy and then they just die..

mindboggling

On October 13 2020 22:14 abuse wrote:


you can't just kill zerg without macroing yourself.
Shuttle did not do "nothing" in this game, he pressured quite a lot and played very smart, even made a lot of goons to protect templars, but these days it just doesn't matter. Goons are too bad vs mutas and once you lose templars it's gg.

On October 13 2020 22:12 abuse wrote:
games like this makes you realize that PvZ these days is just not viable without maelstrom.

On October 13 2020 22:22 Dante08 wrote:


Shuttle threw his army at the third without killing much and it was obvious SK was going to go mutas after that. Shuttle just didn't defend the mutas well.

On October 13 2020 22:27 abuse wrote:
yeah overall it feels very underwhelming.. this is the ASL but I've never seen so many players make so many mistakes in their games.
The skill level is definitely not where it used to be.

On October 13 2020 22:40 Anc13nt wrote:
i think Rush can definitely win. There's not as much random advantage in RvT. As long as Flash doesn't get terran too many times, Rush has a good chance.

On October 13 2020 22:41 Dante08 wrote:


Nope, 67% chance Flash gets Terran/Protoss. Flash Protoss is freaking good and his ZvT is no slouch either I remember he went toe to toe with Light.

On October 13 2020 22:52 TaardadAiel wrote:
Saddest bracket possible. We'll have a Zerg champion again.

On October 13 2020 22:46 Mumei wrote:


What now? I don't suppose you know if there's a VOD?

On October 14 2020 02:24 J. Corsair wrote:
Good god... Light didn't have a single vessel when the defiler rush came, Flash seems to enjoy the ninja expo strat when playing as random, and it seems smart. The opponent is already in a spot of uncertainty from the start, so I suspect he can exploit that sometimes and grab a cheeky expo real quick. Thanks for posting!

On October 14 2020 01:40 maybenexttime wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tr8Y1NTz6Y

This game?

On October 14 2020 09:12 Qikz wrote:


All the favourites are on one side? What is that supposed to mean?

Literally everyone bar Rush is a favourite and Rush is a favourite in his own right as the semi newbie who's breaking out.

On October 13 2020 22:44 Garrl wrote:
We saw Rush get through his group with only TvTs... I think he could definitely take a match off Flash in a tvt if he randoms it. Probably couldn't win a bo5 if Flash was still terran, but I think it's doable.

On October 14 2020 10:49 Dante08 wrote:


Nope there was another way longer game like more than 30mins

On October 15 2020 01:58 Avi-Love wrote:
I absolutely love the brackets, and I am excited for every single match. A part of me also believes that if Rush finally has his nerves in order and stops choking, he has a legitimate chance against Flash. While they have only played 4 spon matches of tvt in the last 3 months, the results of those ended up at 2-2, so he has a chance. Rush's tvp is solid and while Flash also has good pvt I feel like that mu is probably 50/50 at worst. Rush's tvz is fantastic, and he should be a big favourite over Flash's zerg. So there is upset potential, even if the most likely outcome is Flash 3-1.

Soma should be a huge favourite over Snow, their h2h since July is 29-13, which is quite significant. However, I do think Snow handles nerves better, and his performance in the group stage was absolutely solid. Being a degenerate gambler I believe in a 3-1 for Soma.

Larva vs Soulkey is so hard to call, there are some fairly wonky maps where neither player will have a lot of experience playing zvz. They have only played 3 games since July (2-1 for Larva). Larva is not the best player in the tournament, but he feels quite solid and consistent in his performance overall. Soulkey is very volatile and has a history of going 12h into 9p when it matters. I suspect that if Soulkey starts losing he will go on lifetilt, whereas if he wins the first game or two he will ride that streak to victory. Personally I am hoping for SK to win 3-2.

Zero vs Best is probably the best matchup of this entire round, and I think we will see the absolute highest level of zvp possible. In my opinion Zero has had the best zvp for a significant amount of time, and at first glance you might consider him a massive favourite simply because he crushes all protoss players. However, that would be a mistake. Since July the score between them in sponsored matches is 21-18..for Best. He is actually the protoss that does the best against Zero, and is even sporting a winning record against him, despite having a losing record against all the other top zergs (5-12 action, 13-15 soma, 19-31 hero, 9-11 SK, 11-15 Larva). I will absolutely predict that this match *should* go to the 5th and final map, with Zero emerging victorious 3-2.

I assume that the format is 1 map veto each, and then the remaining 5 maps are randomized and played -- if that is the case, look to every p to ban Benzene in pvz, and every Z to ban Plasma. Which leaves a fairly balanced map pool.