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Katowice25012 Posts
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thank you for keeping this alive, really appreciate it
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United States10327 Posts
Thanks for the post! appreciate the effort put into it
also, I saw from this that shine[kal]>bisu lololol
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Stork for gold incoming!
GOGOGO!
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GrandInquisitor's always done osl r&s. Did you ask him first?
I mean he's not gonna say no cus you already did it.
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I hope Taekbang does their thing this fall.
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Taek is out. Sad to say, after Stork, the best hope is like...... Pusan?
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Reality, Jaehoon, Movie, Horang2, HoGiL -> All in their first OSLs.
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United States5262 Posts
On October 15 2009 17:31 .risingdragoon wrote: GrandInquisitor's always done osl r&s. Did you ask him first?
I mean he's not gonna say no cus you already did it.
LOL Well Grinq DID do the same to me. If you're going to do this ish you better explain how the league works.
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^ well he'd done it 8 times now, and both when people wanted to do it and when nobody wanted to. he's got a good streak going, I expected him to do it till he dies
but hey, be my guest.
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United States13896 Posts
Don't worry guys, this was passed on at request from Grinq.
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fucking sweet! FlaSh to win this OSL
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Katowice25012 Posts
On October 15 2009 21:30 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote: Reality, Jaehoon, Movie, Horang2, HoGiL -> All in their first OSLs.
Thanks, I forgot to add those.
And yes I was asked to do this.
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5673 Posts
On October 15 2009 17:31 .risingdragoon wrote: GrandInquisitor's always done osl r&s. Did you ask him first?
I mean he's not gonna say no cus you already did it. All R&S threads are handled by Writers, and Grinq passed the mantle on this season. He was unable to continue and asked someone to take over. Heyoka kindly agreed.
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Hungary11232 Posts
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why does Flash still say KTF MagicNs??
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We have 12 groups advancing 1 from each group. Where is the rest of Ro36?
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12 groups of 3 = 36 yes?
and then it goes to round of 16
so those 12 + the last years 1-4 seeds. So Jaedong fantasy YellOw and type-b?
walla 16
and atm 6 zerg 4 toss 1 terran. and 6 spots left to go.
(terran noo come on TT)
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The Ro36 is currently happening. The winner of each group advances to the Ro16 (1st through 4th place of the last OSL seed into the Ro16 making 12+4 slots filled).
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Katowice25012 Posts
On October 19 2009 07:43 MageKirby wrote: why does Flash still say KTF MagicNs??
Because I did a lot of copy and pasting, its fixed now
Funny that there is only 1 terran in ro16 for the moment. Two of the groups have 2 terrans though so we'll see how it shapes up.
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Interesting, 4 advanced so far from offlines, only 2 of the seeds...
Edit: Er, make that 4:3
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qualified players in Ro16
Pusan, Stork, Movie, Pure
YellOw[ArnC], Jaedong, type-b, Shine, Calm, Kwanro, ZerO, EffOrt
fantasy, Flash, Hwasin, go.go
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Will swarm season never end?
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whoa, FBH beat a toss and lost to a zerg ;;;
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Russian Federation1208 Posts
So far, seeded players have won all matches
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Fantasy for silver mouse!
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On October 29 2009 17:59 SplashbackFerret wrote: Fantasy for silver mouse!
he can do it!
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Thanks for all the responses guys. I just realized there was a FAQ on Pro Gamming later after the questions although you were all kind ^^
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Out of curiosity do offline prelims affect a player's stats?
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omfg! FBH vs jaehoon 1st set was SO SICK! WOW! im calling it top 3 game of the year, gotta be.
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thats extremely surprising......
cant wait for Group K
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All we need to do is eliminate 2 zergs out of 3 groups and 1 out of the fourth and swarm season is over!
Sigh.
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Well...we only need all people who are not zerg to face another zerg... if hyuk makes it through I hope he faced jaedong in the round of 16! Then jaedong might get eliminated (:
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Nooo Leta!!!
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Pure pulled double upsets! The Legend of Fall continues strong!
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Katowice25012 Posts
Pure is playing well, perhaps he truly is the legend of the fall. In fact, he seems to only play well in the fall.
I realized I formatted some of this wrong, its unclear in the group sections which were the seeded players and which weren't. I'll be going through and cleaning up pieces of it today and tomorrow as I have time, to keep it up to the same standards that Grinq did. The ro16 section at the bottom now at least has a quick list of who is so far qualified (no idea why I didn't do that earlier).
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Pretty even race distribution.
4 Protoss 5 Zerg 3 Terran qualified.
Of course the fact that 3 Zerg were already seeded into the R16 makes it appear as though there was a racial imbalance to this OSL.
I'm picking a Stork/Flash final =D
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On November 07 2009 20:32 ThunderGod wrote: Pretty even race distribution.
4 Protoss 5 Zerg 3 Terran qualified.
Of course the fact that 3 Zerg were already seeded into the R16 makes it appear as though there was a racial imbalance to this OSL.
I'm picking a Stork/Flash final =D
id rather bet on a jaedong flash final. but flash is the biggest favorite imho.
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On November 07 2009 20:40 Black Gun wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2009 20:32 ThunderGod wrote: Pretty even race distribution.
4 Protoss 5 Zerg 3 Terran qualified.
Of course the fact that 3 Zerg were already seeded into the R16 makes it appear as though there was a racial imbalance to this OSL.
I'm picking a Stork/Flash final =D id rather bet on a jaedong flash final. but flash is the biggest favorite imho.
ARGH! this is sooooooo agonizing
stork is my fav toss, jaedong is my fav player and i want him to win 3 in a row so badly, flash is a player i've supported as the best since the start of the season, movie is my nomination for the royal road.
decisions, decisions.
but to satisfy the fans of sc, i must put my desires in this final matchup:
Flash (T) vs Jaedong (Z)
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I really think that Pure can make it decently far.
But I'm definitely hoping for a Flash/Jaedong Finals...Who wouldn't XP
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Katowice25012 Posts
This is updated with groups now, also I made a neat chart that shows the average ratings for players in each group by kespa and elo. Its at the bottom.
Group A is pretty funny with kespa, jaedong has 2800 points and pusan has 150.
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Id love to see Inter.Calm do really well. Some good games so far. By the way does anybody know the name of the intro song they now play at the start of the games now?
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Katowice25012 Posts
Thanks TMZ, I added that in. I'll try to go through and add vod links while games are on tonight and its on my mind.
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Can anyone tell me when the finals will be? Is there an official schedule somewhere (either on TL or elsewhere)?
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
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noooo! hwasin is out
unless a miracle happens
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I was bored today and I killed time by figuring out the odds of each player in the Ro16 at this point (after day 3) advancing, assuming that each game has a 50% chance of going to either player. Of course that's not a very good assumption, but whatever. The numbers were:
1-3: Jaedong/Stork/Shine: 95.83% odds of advancing. 4-5: Movie/YellOw[ArnC]: 75%.. 6. ZerO: 70.83% 7-9. Flash/fantasy/Pure: 50%. 10-11. EffOrt/type-b: 29.17%. 12-14. Pusan/Calm/Kwanro: 25%. 15-16. go.go/Hwasin: 4.17%
OK, that wasn't so bad. Then I took it into my head to make a chart of how these percentages looked after each day--everyone starts at 50% of course, and as games are played, their odds of advancing move up and down. It's a pretty meaningless chart, but I figured it would be useful for me to figure out how to use Excel and it wouldn't take too long.
I bitterly regret that decision. It took me ages to figure out how to do the simplest things, I had to do half of them by hand, the chart took me forever, and it wasn't even that readable in the end. And I still can't use Excel. Had I known that it would be this way, I would never have started. Still, having made the chart, I may as well post it.
edit: updated: fixed error and made chart more readable. Now it's on a 48-point scale.
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Katowice25012 Posts
Thats pretty cool, I toyed with a way of doing something similar combination-wise and how likely I thought each player was to beat each other player but gave up in favor of doing it for proleague, neat work :D
it would be kind of interesting to go through OSL historically and see how frequently someone has started their group here 0-2 and then made it into the next round, but not interesting enough to actually dig through the numbers
Also updated for day3
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u forgot to update group d
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Katowice25012 Posts
type-b is 0-2 not 0-1
OP numbers are updated for tonight's games but vod links aren't all there yet, I went through and added a ton it was missing but I don't have most ro16 stuff linked yet
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Congratz to Jaedong and Movie.!
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Flash better watch out, Kwanro is catching up.
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On December 04 2009 20:13 heyoka wrote: type-b is 0-2 not 0-1
OP numbers are updated for tonight's games but vod links aren't all there yet, I went through and added a ton it was missing but I don't have most ro16 stuff linked yet
Only 1 mistake . It says that type - B > kwanro on HBR .
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pripple
Finland1714 Posts
ahh JD already made it through, he never fails us! effort 0/2? sup
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Three days later and the Flash v. Stork game was so good I can't get it out of my head!
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Week 2-2: (Z)type-b > (Z)Kwanro on Heartbreak Ridge I think you have this backwards edit: also I think effort is eliminated
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pripple
Finland1714 Posts
if effort wins fantasy and shine wins calm i think it's gonna be a 3-way tie for the 2nd spot
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1. (P)Stork (Samsung KHAN) 2-0 2. (T)Flash (KT Rolster) 1-1 3. (Z)Kwanro (Woongjin Stars) 1-1 4. (Z)type-b] (Hite SPARKYZ) 0-2
Week 1-1: (T)Flash > (Z)Kwanro on El Niño Week 1-2: (Z)type-b < (P)Stork on Fighting Spirit Week 2-1: (T)Flash < (P)Stork on Heartbreak Ridge Week 2-2: (Z)type-b > (Z)Kwanro on Heartbreak Ridge
How can Kwanro lose 2 games and be 1-1. How can type-b win 1 game and be 0-2. Something's wrong here.
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Roffles
Pitcairn19291 Posts
Because quite simply it's supposed to be Type-B < Kwanro for Week 2-2.
Nothing wrong, just a small typo.
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It would be cool if you added future group games under the already played ones. Thanks
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Katowice25012 Posts
On December 05 2009 00:46 Crunchums wrote: Week 2-2: (Z)type-b > (Z)Kwanro on Heartbreak Ridge I think you have this backwards edit: also I think effort is eliminated
Good call, everything should be right now.
On December 05 2009 06:12 ZBiR wrote:It would be cool if you added future group games under the already played ones. Thanks
This is a good idea, I'll give it a try!
(ok its in now, let me know if anything is amiss)
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Correct me, if I am wrong, but is it possible for B-D groups to have either a 3-way tie-breaker for the second place (if the group leaders and 0-2'ers win their matches) or a 3-way tie-breaker for both the playoff places (the first and the last lose)?
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Katowice25012 Posts
Yes 3 way ties are possible and happen on occasion (I seem to remember one happening earlier this year?). They do a 3 way playoff type deal rotating games until one of the players is up, I forget exactly how it works so if someone can clarify please do.
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in 3-way ties, i believe they keep rotating the players until someone wins two in a row
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Group B
1. (Z)ZerO (Woongjin Stars) 2-0 2. (Z)YellOw[ArnC] (Hite SPARKYZ) 1-1 3. (P)Pure (WeMade FOX) 1-1 4. (T)Hwasin (STX SouL) 0-2
Week 1-1: (T)Hwasin < (Z)ZerO on Heartbreak Ridge Week 1-2: (Z)YellOw[ArnC] > (P)Pure on Eye of the Storm Week 2-1: (T)Hwasin < (P)Pure on El Niño Week 2-2: (Z)YellOw[ArnC] < (Z)ZerO on El Niño
Week 3-1: (P)Pure <> (Z)ZerO on Fighting Spirit Week 3-2: Hwasing <> (Z)YellOw[ArnC] on Fighting Spirit
Just letting you know you added a g to Hwasin
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Katowice25012 Posts
This is such a mess when I try to type in stuff myself, thanks
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On December 05 2009 08:17 natturner wrote: in 3-way ties, i believe they keep rotating the players until someone wins two in a row Or if one player goes 3-0 and the other three go 1-2, they keep going until someone loses twice in a row.
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oh i see well lets hope that happens so hwasin can move up and so effort can get in
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Katowice25012 Posts
I updated this as games went on tonight! Should be correct as of right now.
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Yessssss. All Flash has to do is beat type-b and he advances...
And even if he loses he can still tiebreak.
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what's ro8 gonna look like? A1vB2, B1vC2, C1vD2, D1vA2?
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Katowice25012 Posts
On December 09 2009 20:55 o[twist] wrote: what's ro8 gonna look like? A1vB2, B1vC2, C1vD2, D1vA2?
I think this is how it works but I can't say for certain because I forget every single season exactly how seeding is
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On December 09 2009 20:57 heyoka wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2009 20:55 o[twist] wrote: what's ro8 gonna look like? A1vB2, B1vC2, C1vD2, D1vA2? I think this is how it works but I can't say for certain because I forget every single season exactly how seeding is
so definitely Stork v Movie again, then, and a good chance of Flash v Stork in semifinals (if Flash advances he'll play vZ or vT...); Jaedong in a bracket with two of Pure/Zero/Yarnc and one of Calm/Shine/fantasy
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On December 05 2009 10:19 Avidkeystamper wrote:Show nested quote +On December 05 2009 08:17 natturner wrote: in 3-way ties, i believe they keep rotating the players until someone wins two in a row Or if one player goes 3-0 and the other three go 1-2, they keep going until someone loses twice in a row.
Not quite, that still doesn't decide which of the other two advance.
Example:
Kwanro<Flash Type-B > Kwanro
= who advances?
Rather it is until someone wins two in a row here as well.
Flash > Kwanro -> winner stays Type-b > Flash -> winner stays Type-b > Kwanro -> Type-b advances.
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Should Pure be first to advance and Calm too (as they beat whoever is second spot at the moment)
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man, potential for tiebreakers galore...
If yarnc wins his game, then he, Zero, and Pure have to play for their spots.
If Fantasy wins his game, then he, Shine and Calm will have to go at it.
If type-b somehow pulls some beastly shit and upsets flash, then it'll be him, Flash and Kwanro for the second spot.
Well, unless I've misunderstood the tiebreak system.
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On December 09 2009 20:57 heyoka wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2009 20:55 o[twist] wrote: what's ro8 gonna look like? A1vB2, B1vC2, C1vD2, D1vA2? I think this is how it works but I can't say for certain because I forget every single season exactly how seeding is
no, OSL Ro8 is random drawing
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On December 10 2009 02:25 Darrun wrote: man, potential for tiebreakers galore...
If yarnc wins his game, then he, Zero, and Pure have to play for their spots.
If Fantasy wins his game, then he, Shine and Calm will have to go at it.
If type-b somehow pulls some beastly shit and upsets flash, then it'll be him, Flash and Kwanro for the second spot.
Well, unless I've misunderstood the tiebreak system.
Nope, but that's how it usually is in OSL. Lots of potential tiebreakers, few ever come about.
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On December 10 2009 02:38 SuperArc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2009 20:57 heyoka wrote:On December 09 2009 20:55 o[twist] wrote: what's ro8 gonna look like? A1vB2, B1vC2, C1vD2, D1vA2? I think this is how it works but I can't say for certain because I forget every single season exactly how seeding is no, OSL Ro8 is random drawing
odd. random drawing for all, or split into the first-seeds and second-seeds?
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On December 10 2009 04:32 o[twist] wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2009 02:38 SuperArc wrote:On December 09 2009 20:57 heyoka wrote:On December 09 2009 20:55 o[twist] wrote: what's ro8 gonna look like? A1vB2, B1vC2, C1vD2, D1vA2? I think this is how it works but I can't say for certain because I forget every single season exactly how seeding is no, OSL Ro8 is random drawing odd. random drawing for all, or split into the first-seeds and second-seeds?
First seeds play against second seeds.
Additionally (I believe, not certain on this one) people who advanced from the same group are placed on different sites of the bracket, so that they only can meet in the finals. In case of Jaedong and Movie (qualifiers of group A) it kinda looks like this:
Jaedong vs X2nd X1st vs X2nd X1st vs X2nd X1st vs Movie
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FUUUUUUUUUUUUUU-
FLASH AND FANTASY BETTER ADVANCE
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Shouldn't Pure be listed as the #1 in his group since he has the head to head win over Zero? Same for Calm vs Shine.
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lol, zero will never beat stork or flash.
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I'll be happy to see a RO4 of Stork, Flash, Jaedong and then add in Calm or Movie.
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Agreed
I actually want to see a RO4 with Stork vs Fantasy and then Flash vs Jaedong. Stork will DEFINITELY take down Fantasy easily and then Flash vs Jaedong well its Flash vs Jaedong what more can you ask for, would be perfect don't cha think?
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Never going to happen.
Stork >>>>> ZerO so bad.
I hope they get to the finals so Stork can win !
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On December 10 2009 09:16 Pang0lin wrote:Never going to happen. Stork >>>>> ZerO so bad. I hope they get to the finals so Stork can win !
stork could own either jaedong or zero with his PvZ REVOLUTIONARY BUILD stork for either gold or silver would be fine with me, hoping for Stork v Flash finals.
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go Flash, please avoid wildcard.
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Holy balls, if Shine ruins Flash's vZ streak i will be mighty angry...but I just don't really see that happening. Please don't let me eat my words
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Zero would definitely be favored vs Stork in a ZvP, he's got the best ZvP around and has beaten everyone in that matchup recently
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Katowice25012 Posts
Odd timing on that comment, given his most recent performance this week.
On December 10 2009 08:13 Doriath wrote: Shouldn't Pure be listed as the #1 in his group since he has the head to head win over Zero? Same for Calm vs Shine.
Probably! I just kind of arbitrarily listed the people with the same records, I'll change that now.
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This has the potential to be an amazing OSL Round of 8 and forward.
Jaedong Movie Calm fantasy Stork and Flash (then two duds from group B).
Imagine a Jaedong/fantasy/Stork/Flash Ro4?
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Does anyone have an approximate time for when the finals is gonna be (especially considering the holiday season, they take time off I would assume)? I'm going to be on vacation from the 18th to the 31st and I am gonna be pissed if I end up missing some epic finals. The MSL R&S's title says it goes until January of '10, is it the same for OSL?
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Katowice25012 Posts
Yes, this will be going until January but I don't have the specific schedule.
I will be updating this as games finish tonight, Group A totally finalized, group B will need tiebreakers. Groups C and D could also hit tiebreakers if fantasy and type-b win!!!
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Lyriene
United States346 Posts
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Although I don't like Fantasy much, but I'm really feeling sad for him =( .... Look at him... He's looking so depressed.... I'm sorry to him...
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Katowice25012 Posts
Thanks for that, does it say when the rematches get played?
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Katowice25012 Posts
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what? the tiebreakers are today??? yey more starcraft!!!
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hey put the live report threads for the ro16 into the OP yes?
thanks
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hoping flash and jaedong play a boX in both starleagues this time
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omg!!!! flash vs jaedong calm vs pure shine vs stork zero vs movie
all in a bo3!!
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MrHoon
10183 Posts
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JvF Soooo gay right off the bat TT
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United States12607 Posts
Well, type-b sure lived up to expectations in this OSL.
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maps are sooo stacked against jd not to mention up against a bonjwa level FvZ.
if jaedong wins this series and goes on to snatch another osl then it's bonjwa time.
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Little background on Flash
In the 2008 Baccus OSL, Ro8 he beat Jaedong (2-1), in the semi-finals he beat Bisu (3-1) and in the finals he beat Stork (3-0).
Granted, this was a while back, but its pretty impressive.
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marcoso
Brazil818 Posts
this one's already epic, compared to last season's
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There hasn't been a more evenly matched OSL Ro8 since forever . No one is a 100 or 80 % favoured over the other player . Anything could happen and dear i say it an all Zerg semi - finals .
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On December 11 2009 23:17 mmgoose wrote: maps are sooo stacked against jd not to mention up against a bonjwa level FvZ.
if jaedong wins this series and goes on to snatch another osl then it's bonjwa time. Oh man, can you imagine Jaedong winning an OSL with a run of Flash, Calm, Stork? EPIC
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are the dates for the games known yet ?
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On December 11 2009 23:17 mmgoose wrote: Oh man, can you imagine Jaedong winning an OSL with a run of Flash, Calm, Stork? EPIC
Were that to happen, I sincerely believe that the world would implode. He'll then have proven himself the best ever, I should say.
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I just want Flash to win an OSL by beating JAEDONG Calm and Stork. That'd be the only OSL run ever to rival his Jaedong/Bisu/Stork and Savior's Iris/Nada run.
God I want a Flash vs Stork Finals rematch. It'd make me so happy. :3
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uhg, the match eveyone wants happens first round...
I guess it's nice that we're guaranteed a Flash vs. Jaedong showdown, but I would've preferred it to happen in the finals :p
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On December 11 2009 23:17 mmgoose wrote: maps are sooo stacked against jd not to mention up against a bonjwa level FvZ.
if jaedong wins this series and goes on to snatch another osl then it's bonjwa time.
How are the maps stacked against Jaedong? There's a reason there's only 1 Terran in this ro8, and it's not a magical simultaneous slump hitting every other T player.
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Wow what great matches! JD v. Flash right of, and lotsa lotsa ZvP (which is the most fun MU to watch in my opinon) !
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On December 11 2009 23:17 mmgoose wrote: maps are sooo stacked against jd not to mention up against a bonjwa level FvZ.
if jaedong wins this series and goes on to snatch another osl then it's bonjwa time.
Fighting Spirit: TvZ: 6-4 (60%)
Neo Heartbreak Ridge: TvZ: 1-0 (100%)
Eye of the Storm: TvZ: 4-7 (36.4%)
How is this imbalanced? Too few games by far have been played on these maps to base an opinion on these numbers. Besides, S-class players often seem to transcend map imbalances purely because they're so awesome.
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Fighting Spirit
Pretty much the defintion of balanced. 6-4 spread, and the number of TvT and ZvZ matches is even (showing that both Ts and Zs are about equally confident on the map)
Heartbreak Ridge
Neo HBR is too new to draw meaningful stats, but looking at the old one we see 25-23, with more than two times as many ZvZs as TvTs.
Eye of the Storm
Still a small sample size to draw any meaningful data from, but Z is ahead 4-7 in TvZ on this map so far.
The first two maps are very even, and the third might have a slight Z advantage. Saying that JD has map disadvantage is just stupid.
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Russian Federation1607 Posts
So so so so so so sick brackets. 1 TvZ (JvF) and 3 PvZ with every Protoss playing strong PvZ. It should be awesome!!
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I'm amused that the Ro4 has potential to be all ZvZ with these draws.
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wow the tiebreaker saved us from 2 mirrors :D
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pripple
Finland1714 Posts
ahh damn i would've have prefered a BO5 between JD & Flash at the finals ;< well this should do, too bad Flash's neat little TvZ streak ends here, expecting good games!
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(from here) Did you want to play Jaedong in the ace match? ▲ I wanted to at some point. However, I don’t know why but I think we’ll face each other a lot from now. I’m just happy that we won 3-0 today. eesh, he wasn't kidding
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On December 12 2009 04:33 Hinanawi wrote:Fighting SpiritPretty much the defintion of balanced. 6-4 spread, and the number of TvT and ZvZ matches is even (showing that both Ts and Zs are about equally confident on the map) The best number for evaluating confidence is purely race choices from proleague (which is imperfect for various reasons), which shows 39T 32Z 33P. Jaedong is 1-0 vs T (beat Canata) and Flash is 2-0 vs Z (Savior, Kwanro). So this map is basically a wash.
Heartbreak RidgeNeo HBR is too new to draw meaningful stats, but looking at the old one we see 25-23, with more than two times as many ZvZs as TvTs. Neo HBR isn't different enough from HBR that we'll see a noticeable shift in balance. The numbers for HBR were 8T/56Z/28P which are ridiculous - clearly this is not a terran map and very much a zerg map. But Jaedong is 1-3 vs T (beat Leta, two losses to fantasy and one to Canata) whereas Flash is 3-2 vs actual zerg progamers (beat hero, july, hoejja, lost to yarnc and effort). I wouldn't put too much stock into those numbers; this map clearly favors zerg.
My opinion is that when you have two players at such a high level the map balance is pretty irrelevant as long as it's not ridiculously imbalanced. So maybe Jaedong has a tiny advantage on HBR but I wouldn't consider it significant. Jaedong hasn't really had a strong referendum on his ZvT in a while whereas Flash is on fire TvZ, so this series is really all about how good Jaedong's ZvT is in my mind.
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Please Pure make the Finals for this OSL. I know you are capable of it
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Katowice25012 Posts
On December 11 2009 23:45 ptz wrote: are the dates for the games known yet ?
Yes! I have it all updated now with ro8.
(12/18 and 12/25 - bo3s split up into two days)
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11? shouldnt be 12 or im I just stupid?
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Katowice25012 Posts
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On December 12 2009 06:31 Crunchums wrote:Show nested quote +On December 12 2009 04:33 Hinanawi wrote:Fighting SpiritPretty much the defintion of balanced. 6-4 spread, and the number of TvT and ZvZ matches is even (showing that both Ts and Zs are about equally confident on the map) The best number for evaluating confidence is purely race choices from proleague (which is imperfect for various reasons), which shows 39T 32Z 33P. Jaedong is 1-0 vs T (beat Canata) and Flash is 2-0 vs Z (Savior, Kwanro). So this map is basically a wash. Neo HBR isn't different enough from HBR that we'll see a noticeable shift in balance. The numbers for HBR were 8T/56Z/28P which are ridiculous - clearly this is not a terran map and very much a zerg map. But Jaedong is 1-3 vs T (beat Leta, two losses to fantasy and one to Canata) whereas Flash is 3-2 vs actual zerg progamers (beat hero, july, hoejja, lost to yarnc and effort). I wouldn't put too much stock into those numbers; this map clearly favors zerg. My opinion is that when you have two players at such a high level the map balance is pretty irrelevant as long as it's not ridiculously imbalanced. So maybe Jaedong has a tiny advantage on HBR but I wouldn't consider it significant. Jaedong hasn't really had a strong referendum on his ZvT in a while whereas Flash is on fire TvZ, so this series is really all about how good Jaedong's ZvT is in my mind. Actually the dearth of terrans on Heartbreak Ridge is from the PvT imbalanace. They're all equal, but if you had to scream imba, I'd go for a Zerg slant on the last map and a Terran slant for the first.
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Ouch, seems like the toss-players will have a rough time in the RO8. :/ Hopefully there won't be another ZvZ final again.
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Three WeMade players! :D FlaSh > Jaedong, purely because I'm a T user, and I think Movie will make it to the finals from the other branch because he's a pimp.
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On December 12 2009 09:37 SynC[gm] wrote: Three WeMade players! :D FlaSh > Jaedong, purely because I'm a T user, and I think Movie will make it to the finals from the other branch because he's a pimp.
Shine, Pure and...?
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Oh snap Jaedong v Flash, Would have preferred to see this as a finals match up, but the ro8 is as good as place as any I guess. I'm rooting for Jaedong obviously, but I think with the way Flash has been playing he'll take it.
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I hope Flash will win but hope it goes to 3 games and if it does, would be happy with any winner. Epic match inc.
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Rooting for Flash, Movie, Stork and Calm
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Russian Federation1208 Posts
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omg... Jaedong vs. Flash already? Bring it home Flash.
(i.e. make Stork's path to the gold easier)
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United States10327 Posts
flash hwaiting
i hope he wins he deserves it
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Russian Federation405 Posts
Only 12–0 since the loss to sAviOr on Outsider.
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On December 13 2009 03:01 nonduc wrote:Only 12–0 since the loss to sAviOr on Outsider.
That was an all-star exhibition match which Kespa didn't count, and Flash went 1 base nuke build just for fun.
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Go Flash!
Would be nice to see Calm and Shine advance too for some FvZ in the semi and final as well. I guess Zero should advance vs Movie too. I can bear a semifinal ZvZ if the final is TvZ.
Too bad Flash is facing JD so early in the tournament, but that's Flashs fault for losing to Stork. Hopefully MSL will give us the final we all want to see.
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On December 13 2009 03:18 lmaonnaise wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2009 03:01 nonduc wrote:Only 12–0 since the loss to sAviOr on Outsider. That was an all-star exhibition match which Kespa didn't count, and Flash went 1 base nuke build just for fun.
And nuked himself twice.
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Russian Federation405 Posts
On December 13 2009 03:18 lmaonnaise wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2009 03:01 nonduc wrote:Only 12–0 since the loss to sAviOr on Outsider. That was an all-star exhibition match which Kespa didn't count, and Flash went 1 base nuke build just for fun. LOL KeSPA don’t count WCG ang GOM too. An what about 19…cough –0 then? Don’t miss TLPD and KeSPA please!
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On December 13 2009 03:27 nonduc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2009 03:18 lmaonnaise wrote:On December 13 2009 03:01 nonduc wrote:Only 12–0 since the loss to sAviOr on Outsider. That was an all-star exhibition match which Kespa didn't count, and Flash went 1 base nuke build just for fun. LOL KeSPA don’t count WCG ang GOM too. An what about 19…cough –0 then? Don’t miss TLPD and KeSPA please! Did you even watch this game? As Reket said, Flash even nuked himself twice. He was obviously doing a just for fun build which he would have never done in any important OSL/MSL/Proleague match, and I don't see why you would include this game in any statistic.
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Russian Federation405 Posts
Now we’re discussing not the content or the significance of a particular game, but we’re discussing the viability and consistence of statistics.
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The statistics are only as good as the data set used. In Kespa data set Flash is 12-0, in competitive data set Flash is 19-0, in TLPD data set Flash is 19-1.
Take it from an insider, in training games data set Flash is 245-51. Did you know FireFist rolled him with a 4-pool yesterday night two times in a row? Just joking, I have no idea what the training data set is.
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Katowice25012 Posts
Honestly none of that matters all that much because he hasn't faced any zerg in months who wasn't completely mediocre. Flash is a monster of course but his games with JD will be the first time he played a real zerg in months.
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So the Zerg he has dismantled aren't real zergs? So by ur definition, what's a real zerg? Anyone other than jaedong?
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Russian Federation405 Posts
"competitive data set"?!?!!!
LOL LOL LOL
What did not invent Flash fans that in the absence of victories in major tournaments at least enjoy "numerical achievements".
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On December 13 2009 08:28 Tyxiquale wrote: So the Zerg he has dismantled aren't real zergs? So by ur definition, what's a real zerg? Anyone other than jaedong? General consensus: Jaedong ZerO and Effort (he was playing quite badly in WCG but now he's okay)
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I don't see why people place effort or zero over calm
calm had the determination, stamina, and drive to win an msl
until effort or zero step up to the plate, I don't care how well they do in proleague, they're just another Sea[Shield] to me.
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whoever wins JvF, wins the OSL. calling it now. Stork is good but always a second place.
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Katowice25012 Posts
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On December 13 2009 12:28 NFL2368 wrote: I don't see why people place effort or zero over calm
calm had the determination, stamina, and drive to win an msl
until effort or zero step up to the plate, I don't care how well they do in proleague, they're just another Sea[Shield] to me.
I hate the dumb "just another Sea[Shield]" arguments. Both Effort and Zero have both already made it farther in a league than Sea ever did. Sea didn't get his label because he couldn't win a league - he got it because he couldn't even get to the ROUND OF EIGHT in a league.
Calm is really good and his MSL run was great. But you need to also evaluate players by *surprise* watching their games. Watch Effort play ZvP and ZvT and then watch Calm and tell me with a straight face that Calm is better right now.
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Jaedong will take Flash (and anyone else) with the right amount of time and preparation and will win his fourth OSL. Assuming Flash somehow does advance he will get stomped in a BO3/5 by Stork, anyways.
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Uggh.. I just noticed that this osl's map pool is imba. zerg > protoss on all.
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hmm.... i'll Be Bisu...
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On December 20 2009 06:25 MuffinDude wrote: Uggh.. I just noticed that this osl's map pool is imba. zerg > protoss on all.
well let's wait till after the ZerO vs Movie series is over
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On December 24 2009 14:12 uglymoose89 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 20 2009 06:25 MuffinDude wrote: Uggh.. I just noticed that this osl's map pool is imba. zerg > protoss on all. well let's wait till after the ZerO vs Movie series is over
also Eye of the Storm is okay for Protoss, P is 6-5 vs Z and 3 of those losses are Pure.
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On December 13 2009 08:35 nonduc wrote: "competitive data set"?!?!!!
LOL LOL LOL
What did not invent Flash fans that in the absence of victories in major tournaments at least enjoy "numerical achievements".
...
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Damn. My internet at home is basically down until something gets repaired, which will probably happen this weekend. As of a result I'll miss jaedong vs flash
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Nice X-mas present from OSL
JvF (<3) Stork v Shine (stork avenges bisu?) Movie v Zero (should be awesome series) Calm v Pure
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Katowice25012 Posts
On December 25 2009 01:53 789 wrote:Damn. My internet at home is basically down until something gets repaired, which will probably happen this weekend. As of a result I'll miss jaedong vs flash
Never fear! Team Liquid will be here to catch you up with the latest news and vods!
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On December 25 2009 03:45 heyoka wrote:Show nested quote +On December 25 2009 01:53 789 wrote:Damn. My internet at home is basically down until something gets repaired, which will probably happen this weekend. As of a result I'll miss jaedong vs flash Never fear! Team Liquid will be here to catch you up with the latest news and vods!
Yeah, I just like to stay up and watch big games like this live lol.
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On December 25 2009 04:15 789 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 25 2009 03:45 heyoka wrote:On December 25 2009 01:53 789 wrote:Damn. My internet at home is basically down until something gets repaired, which will probably happen this weekend. As of a result I'll miss jaedong vs flash Never fear! Team Liquid will be here to catch you up with the latest news and vods! Yeah, I just like to stay up and watch big games like this live lol. i know what you mean, if i miss them live i usually end up spoiling the games for myself before I can watch the vods
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Well apparently while I was at work the cable company came by and made the necessary repairs, and my internet works again. Merry Christmas to me!
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On December 13 2009 19:06 darktreb wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2009 12:28 NFL2368 wrote: I don't see why people place effort or zero over calm
calm had the determination, stamina, and drive to win an msl
until effort or zero step up to the plate, I don't care how well they do in proleague, they're just another Sea[Shield] to me. I hate the dumb "just another Sea[Shield]" arguments. Both Effort and Zero have both already made it farther in a league than Sea ever did. Sea didn't get his label because he couldn't win a league - he got it because he couldn't even get to the ROUND OF EIGHT in a league. Calm is really good and his MSL run was great. But you need to also evaluate players by *surprise* watching their games. Watch Effort play ZvP and ZvT and then watch Calm and tell me with a straight face that Calm is better right now.
Calm is SO much better in series and individual league games than Effort is.
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Sorry this is very last second but does anyone know when the game of jaedong and flash is going to start?
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Katowice25012 Posts
I have some bad news for you man
I'm not man enough to say it here so go to this thread and check out whats going on in tonight's games while they happen http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=108594
This is also currently up to date! I added vod links for the ro16 as well, ro8 vods don't seem to be out yet. Congratulations to Flash, Calm, Movie, and Shine.
Good luck to Calm, Movie, and Shine to try to beat Flash.
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United States40729 Posts
Who is vs who in the semis?
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Katowice25012 Posts
I think its Flash vs Calm and Movie vs Shine but I'm not completely sure
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On December 25 2009 21:54 heyoka wrote: I think its Flash vs Calm and Movie vs Shine but I'm not completely sure
Yep that is correct.
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Norway1530 Posts
Flash vs Movie finals gogo!
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The weakest matchup for Calm Movie and Shine are all vT, so Flash should definitely take it no matter how Movie vs Shine turns out. The finals will just be a Flashroll.
If only Shine hadn't eliminated Stork so we could have a Flash v Stork finals.....
Incidentally, Shine has eliminated Really, Bisu, EffOrt, fantasy, and Stork on his way to the Ro4. Quite impressive.
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On December 26 2009 01:27 arcticStorm wrote: The weakest matchup for Calm Movie and Shine are all vT, so Flash should definitely take it no matter how Movie vs Shine turns out. The finals will just be a Flashroll.
If only Shine hadn't eliminated Stork so we could have a Flash v Stork finals.....
Incidentally, Shine has eliminated Really, Bisu, EffOrt, fantasy, and Stork on his way to the Ro4. Quite impressive.
vt statistics on tlpd dont tell the whole story, especially since shine/calm/movie only started becoming amazing recently
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Flash can't lose a BO3 to a zerg right now. Movie better get his pants on to have a chance - but I hope he doesn't.
Cheers for Flash =D
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On December 26 2009 01:27 arcticStorm wrote:
Incidentally, Shine has eliminated Really, Bisu, EffOrt, fantasy, and Stork on his way to the Ro4. Quite impressive.
ya im like >>> O_O nice shine, but this is Flash's OSL =) GOGO ULTIMATE WEAPON!
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I smell MSL and OSL champion for Flash
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Flash is definitely the favorite, but not by much - Calm is the furthest thing from a pushover you'll find and is on top of his game. I can't wait for this series, 2 incredibly smart players with great mechanics on a huge stage.
Movie vs. Shine is a great matchup of up-and-comers. Literally the current "next big thing" players for their respective races really coming into their own (and still improving each week). Shine has had one of the most amazing OSL runs in history and I would love to see him win it all for that reason alone. Movie is simply the most entertaining protoss in the game today.
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Movie vs Shine for an OSL semi sounds a joke. Calm and Flash should be the final but ...
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On December 26 2009 22:52 oneill wrote: I smell MSL and OSL champion for Flash
Bonjwa? He doesn't have as many titles as Jaedong but this is a ridiculous bonjwa level domination run.
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On December 27 2009 04:39 KvkG wrote:Show nested quote +On December 26 2009 22:52 oneill wrote: I smell MSL and OSL champion for Flash Bonjwa? He doesn't have as many titles as Jaedong but this is a ridiculous bonjwa level domination run.
JD won OSL gold, MSL Ro4, and PL #2.
Thats pretty much the limit of what a player can do nowadays. I doubt Flash can get both titles.
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On December 27 2009 04:29 amorpheus wrote: Movie vs Shine for an OSL semi sounds a joke. Calm and Flash should be the final but ...
Movie is streaky but hands-down a top-3 Protoss player overall (and has incredibly dangerous PvZ) and Shine has had one of the best OSL runs ever, so I really can't imagine a cooler series than this.
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On December 27 2009 05:27 SuperArc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2009 04:39 KvkG wrote:On December 26 2009 22:52 oneill wrote: I smell MSL and OSL champion for Flash Bonjwa? He doesn't have as many titles as Jaedong but this is a ridiculous bonjwa level domination run. JD won OSL gold, MSL Ro4, and PL #2. Thats pretty much the limit of what a player can do nowadays. I doubt Flash can get both titles.
Jaedong's claim to fame is pulling a Boxer, ala back to back OSLs for his domination period.
Flash could very well pull a Nada and win OSL And MSL at once. It'd be an interesting dynamic, I think, with certain players matching certain bonjwa's in impressive accomplishments.
Maybe Flash could go Oov and never lose in a starleague finals, too!
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On December 27 2009 05:58 TwoToneTerran wrote:Show nested quote +On December 27 2009 05:27 SuperArc wrote:On December 27 2009 04:39 KvkG wrote:On December 26 2009 22:52 oneill wrote: I smell MSL and OSL champion for Flash Bonjwa? He doesn't have as many titles as Jaedong but this is a ridiculous bonjwa level domination run. JD won OSL gold, MSL Ro4, and PL #2. Thats pretty much the limit of what a player can do nowadays. I doubt Flash can get both titles. Jaedong's claim to fame is pulling a Boxer, ala back to back OSLs for his domination period. Flash could very well pull a Nada and win OSL And MSL at once. It'd be an interesting dynamic, I think, with certain players matching certain bonjwa's in impressive accomplishments. Maybe Flash could go Oov and never lose in a starleague finals, too!
GS1 should be counted as a SL since both JD/Flash took it very serious.
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Yeah and Oov got second place in an ITV ranking tournament (The smaller, non MSL/OSL tournament of that time) to July that I'm sure he took very seriously. It doesn't matter because the point of the matter is that Oov never lost in OSL/MSL finals (Despite dropping out of the leagues a lot in general), and Flash still has the opportunity to do that, unlike ANY of his peers (Jaedong/Bisu/Stork -- I guess Calm technically could but I don't really want to rank him with the Big 4).
He's also the only person who can repeat Nada's awesome feat this season, as well. :o
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I was hoping Stork would advance and get another silver medal. Guess he has free time for the next 4 bosses in ICC, though.
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Shine better win this OSL or I will be upset. He has taken out my 2 favourite players. I dont want both Stork and Bisu losing bo3s to some chump.
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Movie defeating Flash in the finals would be too epic for words xD
Quite improbable tho :p
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Katowice25012 Posts
I fully support Movie beating Flash in the finals no matter how unlikely or impossible the chance of it actually happening is
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Did anyone else notice that almost every single game zerg won in the ro8 was won with pure muta?
Both calms games, and one or two of shines games, i cant remember.
Mutalisk is best unit in SC, by far.
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FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
On December 30 2009 03:08 m3rciless wrote: Did anyone else notice that almost every single game zerg won in the ro8 was won with pure muta?
Both calms games, and one or two of shines games, i cant remember.
Mutalisk is best unit in SC, by far.
Totally agreed. Hooray magic boxes!
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Predictions for this EVER OSL 2009
Flash vs Movie Flash wins EVER OSL 2009
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Does anyone know who thumbed down what maps in the semis? Or was it random?
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On January 01 2010 16:59 Crunchums wrote: Does anyone know who thumbed down what maps in the semis? Or was it random?
There are only 4 maps, I thought? That's why 1 had to be thumbed down in a bo3, 1 played twice in a bo5.
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This is gonna be a one sided finals. As long as its not ZvZ!
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Seeker
Where dat snitch at?36622 Posts
16 Terrans, 1 remains...... Flash ALL THE WAY!
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On January 03 2010 02:39 Pokebunny wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2010 16:59 Crunchums wrote: Does anyone know who thumbed down what maps in the semis? Or was it random? There are only 4 maps, I thought? That's why 1 had to be thumbed down in a bo3, 1 played twice in a bo5. In the MSL at least, each player thumbs down a map in a bo5 so that they don't have to play that map twice.
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Katowice25012 Posts
I feel like thats something I should know but I really don't have the slightest clue how it works
finals are now set! the OP might not be updated for an hour or two so check the LR thread in the meantime if you need specifics.
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I have been a movie fan for months, and am so glad to see him get to the finals. He has a lot of weaknesses, but I find all his games to be full of entertainment, novel ideas, and simply amazing micro (at times, other times micro way off). I was hoping for Movie vs Jaedong, since Jaedong is my first favorite, followed by Boxer, then Movie. Ever since I saw Movie vs Baby, I have kept my eye on him. Though there are probably better "playing by the book" toss out there, I am going to enjoy this final matchup. You can EXPECT some nice cheese from Movie. And I expect Flash to cheese him right back in retaliation. Movie will likely cheese at least twice in this match. Just my two cents.
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On December 12 2009 09:37 SynC[gm] wrote: Three WeMade players! :D FlaSh > Jaedong, purely because I'm a T user, and I think Movie will make it to the finals from the other branch because he's a pimp.
I think my prediction was perfect Go FlaSh!
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Katowice25012 Posts
siiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiick call
WHO ELSE IS EXCITED 4 FINALS???
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On January 17 2010 11:16 heyoka wrote: siiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiick call
WHO ELSE IS EXCITED 4 FINALS???
I AM! WE NEED MORE HYPE!!!
HYPE! HYPE! HYPE!
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Bumping. Reason: It's missing The Finals results.
Thanks.
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