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Foreigners have a strange relationship with the sponsors of starleagues. Starcraft fans in countries other than Korea will almost certainly never consume the products of the corporations who bring us the Starcraft we crave. Have you ever been to a Shinhan Bank? Have you ever had a Bacchus energy drink? Have you ever played Batoo, Lost Saga, Avalon, or Club Day?
Do you even know what EVER makes? I don't. And yet here they are, bringing us a fifth season of the game we love.
I personally feel a strong affinity for the company that will be sponsoring the fall OSL this year. The July vs BeSt finals in the EVER 2008 OSL were the first I ever watched... three games of beauty that made me a Zerg fan for life. I'm grateful to EVER for introducing me to the game with a bang in the form of an amazing final.
my introduction to Starcraft, courtesy of EVER
In fact, you might say that EVER OSLs are defined by fantastic finals. In Arrian's recent TLFE, A Finale in Five, four out of the five games he highlighted were from EVER OSLs, one set each from every one of the four finals that have been held. Boxer vs iloveoov in EVER2004 was certainly one of the best finals in Starcraft history up to that point. July vs Goodfriend (EVER2005), if nothing else, had an amazing Game 5. And Jaedong walked the Royal Road all over Stork in 2007, in a finals that demonstrated both his skill and exhaustive preparation.
With such a vibrant history, I'm looking forward to an exciting and dramatic finals in this EVER OSL as well, especially after the fiasco that was Jaedong vs Yarnc. But first, we need to talk about how the players will get there. Let's start at the beginning: OSL preliminaries!
Predicting Protoss
In the last offline events for the two starleagues, Protoss advanced out of their groups 6 out of 48 times, or 12.5%. Needless to say, this is a staggeringly low rate. There's no reason to think that race distribution this season is going to get any more balanced, either. Since the beginning of March, the record (counting both televised and non-televised games) for ZvP on the three maps being used in this prelim is 132-88, or 60%. What a difference 8 months makes!
The names at the top of every group are the players who I think have a chance to win it. Usually there won't be more than two; sometimes there will be only one. The first name is the favorite to win it.
The preliminaries have none of the drama, manufactured or real, of most Starleague games. There are no storylines, no frills, no chants of "fighting!". This is Starcraft in its rawest form, with urgency from the rookie looking to make his first real mark on the scene and a touch of desperation from the pro who everyone thinks is washed up. Like always, proving the critics wrong starts here, at the bottom of the barrel. The prelims are certainly where careers are made and broken, so be sure to watch the stream tomorrow and enjoy every minute you can.
Group A: Lomo/Movie
GTR picks: Movie
On the one hand, we have Movie, who slumped pretty badly at the end of last season. On the other we have Lomo, who totally psyched out everyone when he miraculously beat BeSt in the PL playoffs. Movie slumping and Lomo getting an important win are probably not enough to compensate for the obvious skill difference between the two players, but I think Lomo's, ah, invigorating vacation in Canada recently can probably push him over the edge.
Lomo vs Actually
koala vs Clay
SoO vs 45[Name]
hwan vs Movie
Group B: SangHo/GuemChi
GTR picks: Mong
Two mediocre tosses. Since I'm an eSTRO fan, I'm going to find some reason to pick Sangho over GuemChi -- what's that you say? Sangho's ELO is higher than GuemChi? Well obviously he's going to win, then!
SangHo vs SungEun
MIsO vs Midas
yoOn vs Mong
Princess vs GuemChi
Group C: Everyone!/Sea
GTR picks: s2
This looks like the weakest group of the bunch. Sea hasn't been at his best lately, but even at sub optimal, who's going to beat him? s2, Chavi, HoGiL and if.Classic are all solid players, but picking one of these guys to upset Sea is difficult.
Sea vs Fenix
fOru vs Chavi
s2 vs Classic
Sky[kaL] vs HoGiL
Group D: hyvaa/keke
GTR picks: hyvaa
Two mediocre zergs. Hmm, keke's ELO rank is higher -- what's that you say? Hyvaa's ZvZ ELO ranking is higher than keke? Well obviously he's going to win, then!
hyvaa vs Sse[kal]
M18M vs Dongrae
Pusan vs BByong
By.Rage vs keke
Group E: UpMaGiC/FireFist
GTR picks: UpMaGiC
FireFist, although a proficient Gatorade drinker, simply doesn't have better ZvT than UpMaGiC's "wachanic" TvZ.
UpMaGiC vs Yuki
yeOngJae vs Spear
FireFist vs ASuka-Jr
hOn_sin vs Jaehoon
Group F: Iris/GosI[Flying]
GTR picks: GosI[Flying]
The Iris pick is self-explanitory, but he'll face a tough challenge from GosI[Flying], who, as everyone knows, is the next bonjwa.
Iris vs Mell
Major vs GosI[Flying]
FrOzean vs ZerG[kaL]
Revival vs Tempest
Group G: RorO/July
GTR picks: July
July will make it to the finals of his group, but his ZvZ is pretty bad and he'll probably be facing RorO. He may win, but it's not likely.
RorO vs Rex.IU
jjonga vs PuMa
SaiR vs Neo.G_Soulkey
Paralyze vs July
Group H: sKyHigh
GTR picks: sKyHigh
Skyhigh is a pretty unpredictable player, but I don't see him losing in this group. I doubt BoxeR has it in him to score three series wins against this bunch, but we can hope...
sKyHigh vs neo.g_zerO
Haran vs BoxeR
Last vs Rarity
JaewOo vs 815
Group I: aMeBa
GTR picks: aMeBa
Who is aMeBa, you ask? Besides being a trendy upset pick, he's a rising star on the scene, and he's going to make next season a lot easier to watch for MBC fans. These OSL prelims are going to be where he first makes his mark, unless ToSsGirL, Much, or Pure can stop him. Probably not, in my opinion!
Pure vs Lucky
Fancy vs DaezanG
aMeBa vs ToSsGirL
maestro vs Much
Group J: Kal/Miracle
GTR picks: Miracle
Who's going to stop Kal in this group? Miracle is a Khan Terran showing signs of improvement (he went 3-0 in the Proleague playoffs) but Kal is most definitely the favorite here.
Kal vs Just
tiny vs LuCifer
RuBy vs hwata
Britney vs Miracle
Group K: free[gm]/Modesty
GTR picks: free[gm]
Free is the favorite by default, but he's been slumping pretty hard and he just went 1-1 with a no-name zerg (yCh[z-zOne]). A few netizens here at TL saw this as more of a good thing for yCh than a bad thing for free, but I don't buy it: I think free is continuing his slump. The fact that Modesty is the strongest of all the threats in his group can give him hope, though. Modesty is decent and will put up a good fight... until he has the game won, that is.
free vs remember
TosSLove vs Shark
Modesty vs Reality
Rush vs Reach
Group L: PianO/sAviOr
GTR picks: IrOn
I don't think I would put Savior as a favorite to beat any Terran in the top 50 of the KeSPA ranking. Also, PianO's TvZ is apparently pretty good, making him the favourite here.
sAviOr vs kimtaeyeon
herb vs ggaemo
IrOn vs herO[jOin]
Someday vs PianO
Group M: Horang2/Thezerg/TurN
GTR picks: YellOw
I love watching Horang2, so I'm going to have to give in to personal bias and choose him to win out in his group. If I were smart, though, I'd pick Thezerg. He's an SKT zerg, but I have a sneaky suspicion that that label won't mean that much after this season. He's also posted good results against Protosses lately. Plus, you know, zerg imba. TurN is a player who impressed me this offseason, so I'm going to mention him as well, but mostly in order to look smart if he wins the group.
Horang2 vs Wrath
NeeL vs Nbs
YellOw vs Moon
TurN vs Thezerg
Group N: Light/BaBy
GTR picks: Light
Who do I put as the underdog to Light? Baby or YoonJoong (aka Shuttle)? Yoonjoong took a game off Flash last OSL in the Ro36 and won a Bo3 against Hwasin in GOM. Baby, on the other hand, won a Bo3 against Jangbi recently. I'll just predict that BaBy will win the group, unless he doesn't. Actually, no, that doesn't work since Light's the favorite. So let's say that Light will win the group, unless BaBy does, unless...
You know what? Screw it. I'm predicting Wuk will bust out and take it.
Light vs Wuk
Brave vs n.Die_soO
BaBy vs Lake[Shield]
Sharp vs YoonJoong
Group O: fOrGG
GTR picks: Bogus
If this were the MSL, I'd be biased in this pick since I'd want fOrGG to advance just so I could hear "The Pretender" on the stream again. But since this is the OSL, I can simply say that I'm picking fOrGG since he outclasses everyone else in his group.
fOrGG vs haitai
Action vs HakSoo
Bogus vs by.mingu
MvPzerG vs NaDa
Group P: Sea.Really
GTR picks: Snow
Much like fOrGG, Really (now known as Seiya) is on a level above the rest of his group. An interesting match in this group is Killer vs Snow, which involves two up-and-comers who I personally think hold a lot of promise.
Really vs hOdduk
Dove vs Crazy-Hydra
Killer vs Snow
Ryung vs GoRush
Group Q: Everyone But Luxury/Luxury
GTR picks: Luxury
At first glance, it appears that Lux is going to run away with the group title here. But he's been slumping so hard that I'm almost positive that he's going to get eliminated by some chump like han or Justin. I couldn't possibly choose who, though.
Luxury - Bye
Special vs han
Justin vs Smile
Haha vs Tester
Group R: Calm
GTR picks: Calm
Calm is on fire! I'd list Saint as a possible challenger if Calm's ZvZ weren't so good nowadays. Also, good luck to Casy, who showed a strong performance in the MST qualifiers.
Calm - Bye
Stats vs Favian
Saint vs Bee
Purple vs Casy
Group S: BeSt/HyuN
GTR picks: BeSt
BeSt gets a lot of grief for his PvZ, but he's pretty consistent against Zergs below the skill level of, say, hero. And yeah, HyuN is definitely worse than hero.
BeSt vs DDONG
Barracks vs Rock
Juni vs ClouD
Grape vs HyuN
Group T: by.great/Hyuk
GTR picks: Hyuk
Actually, I think it's 50/50 for by.great to come out on top here. Judging by recent results, Hyuk is a zerg on the rise. He beat Jaedong in a ZvZ recently. If these two players meet in the group finals, I'd put the odds at even money.
great vs Wizard
GoZip vs XellOs
GanZi vs Devil
IsaC vs Hyuk
Group U: HoeJJa/JangBi
GTR picks: JangBi
Jangbi is still slumping, and HoeJJa posted good results in the STX Masters Cup. Whether or not Jangbi wins this group will be a good indication as to wheher he's ready to be a star on Samsung's roster again.
JangBi - Bye
DarkElf vs eagle
Notice vs hungry
GgMaN[Name] vs HoeJJa
Group V: Violet/firebathero
GTR picks: Violet
I think there's no way FBH is going to beat Violet (especially with his historically bad at TvP), but MVP might do the job for him. I sort of hope MVP makes it though since you can't have too many Realpenguin-produced image macros with explosions in them.
firebathero vs Dear
Hydra vs Tazza
MVP vs Sacsri
tHuNdeR vs Violet
Group W: Mind
GTR picks: yCh[z-zOne]
I jumped on the PerfectMan bandwagon pretty hardcore after his PL playoff win, but in retrospect I think it was probably a fluke. Mind is going to walk all over this group.
Mind vs KT.MGW)Protoss
Suny vs PerfectMan
Orion vs Firebat
yCh[z-zOne] vs Anytime
Group X: HiyA
GTR picks: Shine[kaL]
HiyA is good at beating mediocre zergs, and mediocre zergs are the only competition in his group.
HiyA vs invade
Trap vs Peace
oDin vs Say
Dream.t)Marine vs Shine[kaL]
And... that's it! Logon to the Team Liquid OSL qualifiers Live Report thread on September 30th at 10:00 KST... OGN will periodically be choosing exciting matches and broadcasting them! We don't have a schedule up for that yet, but when we do, there will be stream links posted in the thread for sure. Stay tuned!