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On July 29 2009 21:26 ghostWriter wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2009 16:41 Dazed_Spy wrote:On July 29 2009 16:21 Rainmaker5 wrote:On July 29 2009 16:15 Dazed_Spy wrote:On July 29 2009 15:29 Rainmaker5 wrote:
I dunno if stats are very reliable here both Chos are doing some weird stuff. Snow and PerfectMan are probably sent as snipers and are going to do weird stuff and Colosseum is stacked towards Toss in PvTs. Can someone explain that one too? I don't see why. Seems like a Terran contain would work fine and though it's easy for toss to expand the big expansions leaves them open for drops. uh...its a 5 game difference. Statistically, statistics dont mean jack shit for 99% of the maps we have, Colo is one of em'. Even if you were to take iccup statistics or top foreigners opinions on a map, that means jack shit because balance changes amongst top pro gamers. Unless the balance of a map is drastic, or theres been confirmed statements by A class pro gamers on the balance of a map, any statement of a maps balance is worth jack shit. Five games is pretty significant. It's not battle royal bad, but there is something about the map that makes it lean Toss in the matchup. And you can't just say that's it's tough for Terran because they are up in TvZ. Also, the other half of my point is that when you put out players like PerfectMan, Killer and Snow you have some sort of plan in mind, so while the statistics read that yeah Iris, Kwanro and BackHo are better than their opponents the games hinge on whether they're good enough to deal with whatever crazy build or massive cheese comes their way. So stats aren't as important as experience here. I can see Kwanro or BackHo losing a game here just because their younger as players and haven't developed that clutch that older players get. I can never figure out tl's convoluted quote system, so to your first point 1) Five games is not significant. Just five good protoss bashing five bad terrans could make the difference. Just two games of cheese and three better protoss bashing two bad terrans could make the difference. Just one game where flash was too tired to practice for, two games of good protoss beating bad terrans with two cheeses, could make the difference. Five games is nothing. There is a science behind statistics, you have to take a certain amount of people to get an accurate cross section of societies opinions, for example. The same is true for this. For all we know colo is considerably favoured to terrans in the A team practice house 2) I agree. Actually, if you look at who is sent out, 5 games can be significant. For example, if it's 2 ZvP, 2 ZvT and 1 ZvZ, you can tell that zergs have probably been doing very well on the map in practice and it probably favors zerg, even if they lose all their televised games. Thats true.
@other guy, I saw sangho vs iris live, iris played horrible that game. Though its 11:4 in recent proleague play? I suppose that does count as one of those "drastic" examples of imbalance where its fair to draw some assertions. I withdraw my argument! 
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Hope Oz comes out strong and hits hard. Other wise this match set could favor CJ
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On July 29 2009 16:21 Rainmaker5 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2009 16:15 Dazed_Spy wrote:On July 29 2009 15:29 Rainmaker5 wrote:
I dunno if stats are very reliable here both Chos are doing some weird stuff. Snow and PerfectMan are probably sent as snipers and are going to do weird stuff and Colosseum is stacked towards Toss in PvTs. Can someone explain that one too? I don't see why. Seems like a Terran contain would work fine and though it's easy for toss to expand the big expansions leaves them open for drops. uh...its a 5 game difference. Statistically, statistics dont mean jack shit for 99% of the maps we have, Colo is one of em'. Even if you were to take iccup statistics or top foreigners opinions on a map, that means jack shit because balance changes amongst top pro gamers. Unless the balance of a map is drastic, or theres been confirmed statements by A class pro gamers on the balance of a map, any statement of a maps balance is worth jack shit. Five games is pretty significant. It's not battle royal bad, but there is something about the map that makes it lean Toss in the matchup. And you can't just say that's it's tough for Terran because they are up in TvZ. Also, the other half of my point is that when you put out players like PerfectMan, Killer and Snow you have some sort of plan in mind, so while the statistics read that yeah Iris, Kwanro and BackHo are better than their opponents the games hinge on whether they're good enough to deal with whatever crazy build or massive cheese comes their way. So stats aren't as important as experience here. I can see Kwanro or BackHo losing a game here just because their younger as players and haven't developed that clutch that older players get.
Five games isn't conclusive. The sample size is far, far too small to say anything significant about balance based on a 56% winrate.
They put out players like PerfectMan, Killer, and Snow because it's the playoffs and they need to use 6 players, that doesn't mean they're necessarily going to cheese. PerfectMan is horribly outmatched so I could see him trying something, but Killer isn't going to cheese in ZvZ on a 4 player map and Snow has already shown some skill in his round 5 games. If something weird happens in Snow vs Backho you can chalk it up to the matchup being PvP, not Snow being a young player. In PvP, even players like Bisu and Jangbi try 4-gate goons and DT rushes from time to time.
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Hwaseung Oz vs. CJ Entus
 Lomo vs. sKyHigh
 Jaedong vs. EffOrt
HiyA vs.  Movie
PerfectMan vs. Iris
BackHo vs. Snow
Killer vs. Kwanro
My pre-Ace predictions, with two toss-ups. Jaedong looks like the favorite against Effort, but I'd weight recent history (both Effort's insane hot streak and their recent matches) heavily. Similarly, Hiya looks like the favorite against Movie, until you adjust for map imbalance (turns it from 57%-45% to 51%-51%).
Assuming Oz can overcome those difficulties (which is by no means a guarantee) this is going into Ace. If Oz sends out someone other than The Dong, I will stop using mine for a week. CJ, on the other hand, could conceivably put in Iris, which means that while Effort will be playing nothing but ZvZ, 24 hours a day, until this matchup, Jaedong will have to work in at least some ZvT. Iris...can come pretty damn close to practicing nothing but TvZ. PerfectMan? In the semis?
Of course, this is balanced by the fact that on paper the Dong looks stronger than Effort, and he's definitely stronger than Iris. But CJ losing this looks like it'll take Effort getting 0-2'd by Oz' only best player after practicing nothing but ZvZ for a week, and I don't think that's going to happen. CJ, either 4-2 or 4-3.
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United States1655 Posts
Jaedong's going to have a lot to prepare for in these next three days.
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On July 30 2009 06:47 Sigrun wrote:
Jaedong's going to have a lot to prepare for in these next three days. Heres to hoping he fails miserably and enters a never ending slump! 
anti fans unite!
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So...Hwaseung OZ Jaedong versus CJ Entus. Sad as I am to say it, CJ's probably going to win this. Normally I'd be cool with that; but right now, I'm still mad at them for beating Samsung.
(sniff) 
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how can head to head between effort and jaedong be 3-1?
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United States11393 Posts
On July 30 2009 07:25 fusionsdf wrote:
how can head to head between effort and jaedong be 3-1?
Koreans don;t count GOM.
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Great job smix, too bad players don't play each other 100 times so that the stats are really meaningful.
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Netherlands4511 Posts
the matchup for both encounters suck so much.....
mirror festival :/
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Netherlands19135 Posts
Perfectman's stats make me laugh.
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EPT
