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Smix
United States4549 Posts
Shinhan Proleague 08-09 - August 1st Semifinals Day 1 DataHwaseung Oz vs. CJ Entus
1st Set - Destination Lomo vs. sKyHigh0 < Head to Heads > 0 41 - 43 (48.8%) < Total Record > 31 - 24 (56.4%) 15 - 18 (45.5%) < 08-09 Season > 18 - 13 (58.1%) 0 - 0 < Playoff Record > 7 - 1 3 - 7 < Last 10 vs. Opponent Race > 7 - 3 3 - 5 < Record on Map > 10 - 3 1 - 3 < Record vs. Opponent Team > 6 - 3
2nd Set - Neo Medusa Jaedong vs. EffOrt3 < Head to Heads > 1 209 - 98 (68.1%) < Total Record > 53 - 26 (67.1%) 54 - 21 (72%) < 08-09 Season > 33 - 17 (66%) 10 - 2 < Playoff Record > 6 - 2 8 - 2 < Last 10 vs. Opponent Race > 6 - 4 4 - 1 < Record on Map > 6 - 0 14 - 5 < Record vs. Opponent Team > 2 - 2
3rd Set - Colosseum IIHiyA vs.  MovieT v P - 18 - 23 (44%) 0 < Head to Heads > 0 56 - 54 (50.9%) < Total Record > 17 - 19 (47.2%) 32 - 24 (57.1%) < 08-09 Season > 11 - 13 (45.8%) 1 - 2 < Playoff Record > 2 - 3 6 - 4 < Last 10 vs. Opponent Race > 4 - 6 3 - 0 < Record on Map > 1 - 1 3 - 6 < Record vs. Opponent Team > 2 - 1
4th Set - Shades of TwilightPerfectMan vs. IrisP v T - 6 - 4 (60%) 0 < Head to Heads > 0 0 - 0 < Total Record > 153 - 121 (55.8%) 0 - 0 < 08-09 Season > 20 - 15 (57.1%) 0 - 0 < Playoff Record > 5 - 7 0 - 0 < Last 10 vs. Opponent Race > 5 - 5 0 - 0 < Record on Map > 0 - 1 0 - 0 < Record vs. Opponent Team > 5 - 10
5th Set - Heartbreak RidgeBackHo vs. Snow0 < Head to Heads > 0 40 - 50 (44.4%) < Total Record > 0 - 2 (0%) 13 - 16 (44.8%) < 08-09 Season > 0 - 2 (0%) 0 - 3 < Playoff Record > 0 - 0 3 - 7 < Last 10 vs. Opponent Race > 0 - 1 3 - 2 < Record on Map > 0 - 0 2 - 1 < Record vs. Opponent Team > 0 - 0
6th Set - God's GardenKiller vs. Kwanro0 < Head to Heads > 0 2 - 1 (66.7%) < Total Record > 51 - 41 (55.4%) 2 - 1 (66.7%) < 08-09 Season > 12 - 10 (54.5%) 0 - 0 < Playoff Record > 2 - 4 0 - 0 < Last 10 vs. Opponent Race > 7 - 3 2 - 0 < Record on Map > 1 - 1 1 - 0 < Record vs. Opponent Team > 3 - 3
7th Set - Neo HarmonyACE vs. ACE Jaedong (4 - 2) < Player w/ Best Stats on Map > Iris (4 - 4) Z v T - 21 - 17 (55.3%) Jaedong (54 - 21) < Player w/ Best Stats This Season > EffOrt (33 - 17)
NOTE* - These stats don't take into account GOM results
Thought it'd be interesting to get these stats out!
Let me know if you spot mistakes~
Source: Fomos
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Thanks Smix 
Really helps in predictions for the match. This should be added to the LR thread as well(I believe kona already made it).
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konadora
Singapore66366 Posts
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I wish this gave some map statistics though. Like Movie and Hiya looks like a bad match-up till you consider Colosseum likes Toss.
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Smix
United States4549 Posts
On July 29 2009 15:11 Rainmaker5 wrote:
I wish this gave some map statistics though. Like Movie and Hiya looks like a bad match-up till you consider Colosseum likes Toss.
Mm. I'll add this in now
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On July 29 2009 15:12 Smix wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2009 15:11 Rainmaker5 wrote:
I wish this gave some map statistics though. Like Movie and Hiya looks like a bad match-up till you consider Colosseum likes Toss. Mm. I'll add this in now
Thanks
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Also, does anyone know what makes Shades a good map to send a toss to try and snipe Iris? I see it's slightly Toss favored. But it isn't if you get rid of Kal beating Miracle and BeSt beating MVP.
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From this the favorites would then be:
SkyHigh 0-1
JD 1-1
Hiya 2-1
Iris 2-2
Backho 3-2
Kwanro 3-3
JD 4-3
OZ will probably win. CJ needs to make sure they come with this face: (-_-)
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I dunno if stats are very reliable here both Chos are doing some weird stuff. Snow and PerfectMan are probably sent as snipers and are going to do weird stuff and Colosseum is stacked towards Toss in PvTs. Can someone explain that one too? I don't see why. Seems like a Terran contain would work fine and though it's easy for toss to expand the big expansions leaves them open for drops.
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what about jaedong vs skyhigh? that is a likely ace match as well
oh never mind, I'll look it up myself
thanks for these stats smix
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Jaedong Oz ftw!!! Backho fighting 
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On July 29 2009 15:29 Rainmaker5 wrote:
I dunno if stats are very reliable here both Chos are doing some weird stuff. Snow and PerfectMan are probably sent as snipers and are going to do weird stuff and Colosseum is stacked towards Toss in PvTs. Can someone explain that one too? I don't see why. Seems like a Terran contain would work fine and though it's easy for toss to expand the big expansions leaves them open for drops. uh...its a 5 game difference. Statistically, statistics dont mean jack shit for 99% of the maps we have, Colo is one of em'. Even if you were to take iccup statistics or top foreigners opinions on a map, that means jack shit because balance changes amongst top pro gamers. Unless the balance of a map is drastic, or theres been confirmed statements by A class pro gamers on the balance of a map, any statement of a maps balance is worth jack shit.
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On July 29 2009 16:15 Dazed_Spy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2009 15:29 Rainmaker5 wrote:
I dunno if stats are very reliable here both Chos are doing some weird stuff. Snow and PerfectMan are probably sent as snipers and are going to do weird stuff and Colosseum is stacked towards Toss in PvTs. Can someone explain that one too? I don't see why. Seems like a Terran contain would work fine and though it's easy for toss to expand the big expansions leaves them open for drops. uh...its a 5 game difference. Statistically, statistics dont mean jack shit for 99% of the maps we have, Colo is one of em'. Even if you were to take iccup statistics or top foreigners opinions on a map, that means jack shit because balance changes amongst top pro gamers. Unless the balance of a map is drastic, or theres been confirmed statements by A class pro gamers on the balance of a map, any statement of a maps balance is worth jack shit.
Five games is pretty significant. It's not battle royal bad, but there is something about the map that makes it lean Toss in the matchup. And you can't just say that's it's tough for Terran because they are up in TvZ.
Also, the other half of my point is that when you put out players like PerfectMan, Killer and Snow you have some sort of plan in mind, so while the statistics read that yeah Iris, Kwanro and BackHo are better than their opponents the games hinge on whether they're good enough to deal with whatever crazy build or massive cheese comes their way. So stats aren't as important as experience here. I can see Kwanro or BackHo losing a game here just because their younger as players and haven't developed that clutch that older players get.
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On July 29 2009 16:21 Rainmaker5 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2009 16:15 Dazed_Spy wrote:On July 29 2009 15:29 Rainmaker5 wrote:
I dunno if stats are very reliable here both Chos are doing some weird stuff. Snow and PerfectMan are probably sent as snipers and are going to do weird stuff and Colosseum is stacked towards Toss in PvTs. Can someone explain that one too? I don't see why. Seems like a Terran contain would work fine and though it's easy for toss to expand the big expansions leaves them open for drops. uh...its a 5 game difference. Statistically, statistics dont mean jack shit for 99% of the maps we have, Colo is one of em'. Even if you were to take iccup statistics or top foreigners opinions on a map, that means jack shit because balance changes amongst top pro gamers. Unless the balance of a map is drastic, or theres been confirmed statements by A class pro gamers on the balance of a map, any statement of a maps balance is worth jack shit. Five games is pretty significant. It's not battle royal bad, but there is something about the map that makes it lean Toss in the matchup. And you can't just say that's it's tough for Terran because they are up in TvZ. Also, the other half of my point is that when you put out players like PerfectMan, Killer and Snow you have some sort of plan in mind, so while the statistics read that yeah Iris, Kwanro and BackHo are better than their opponents the games hinge on whether they're good enough to deal with whatever crazy build or massive cheese comes their way. So stats aren't as important as experience here. I can see Kwanro or BackHo losing a game here just because their younger as players and haven't developed that clutch that older players get. I can never figure out tl's convoluted quote system, so to your first point
1) Five games is not significant. Just five good protoss bashing five bad terrans could make the difference. Just two games of cheese and three better protoss bashing two bad terrans could make the difference. Just one game where flash was too tired to practice for, two games of good protoss beating bad terrans with two cheeses, could make the difference. Five games is nothing. There is a science behind statistics, you have to take a certain amount of people to get an accurate cross section of societies opinions, for example. The same is true for this. For all we know colo is considerably favoured to terrans in the A team practice house
2) I agree.
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Generally as a rule of thumb maps aren't favored one way or the other unless the difference is more than 60%-40%. Anything closer that is within the normal standard deviation. So TvP 18-23 (44%) for Colo II is nothing game-changing. Maybe they are the same odds that good Movie will show up? 
Edit: Not to mention HiyA is 3-0 on Colo II, so yeah, what P imbalance exactly?
Edit 2: TLPD has HiyA 4-0 on Colo II, 2 TvPs against Jaehoon and free. Not counting MST prelim matches where he went 2-1.
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On July 29 2009 16:41 Dazed_Spy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2009 16:21 Rainmaker5 wrote:On July 29 2009 16:15 Dazed_Spy wrote:On July 29 2009 15:29 Rainmaker5 wrote:
I dunno if stats are very reliable here both Chos are doing some weird stuff. Snow and PerfectMan are probably sent as snipers and are going to do weird stuff and Colosseum is stacked towards Toss in PvTs. Can someone explain that one too? I don't see why. Seems like a Terran contain would work fine and though it's easy for toss to expand the big expansions leaves them open for drops. uh...its a 5 game difference. Statistically, statistics dont mean jack shit for 99% of the maps we have, Colo is one of em'. Even if you were to take iccup statistics or top foreigners opinions on a map, that means jack shit because balance changes amongst top pro gamers. Unless the balance of a map is drastic, or theres been confirmed statements by A class pro gamers on the balance of a map, any statement of a maps balance is worth jack shit. Five games is pretty significant. It's not battle royal bad, but there is something about the map that makes it lean Toss in the matchup. And you can't just say that's it's tough for Terran because they are up in TvZ. Also, the other half of my point is that when you put out players like PerfectMan, Killer and Snow you have some sort of plan in mind, so while the statistics read that yeah Iris, Kwanro and BackHo are better than their opponents the games hinge on whether they're good enough to deal with whatever crazy build or massive cheese comes their way. So stats aren't as important as experience here. I can see Kwanro or BackHo losing a game here just because their younger as players and haven't developed that clutch that older players get. I can never figure out tl's convoluted quote system, so to your first point 1) Five games is not significant. Just five good protoss bashing five bad terrans could make the difference. Just two games of cheese and three better protoss bashing two bad terrans could make the difference. Just one game where flash was too tired to practice for, two games of good protoss beating bad terrans with two cheeses, could make the difference. Five games is nothing. There is a science behind statistics, you have to take a certain amount of people to get an accurate cross section of societies opinions, for example. The same is true for this. For all we know colo is considerably favoured to terrans in the A team practice house 2) I agree.
I understand what you're saying, so I pulled up the stats. Most games were understandable results. But then you had SangHo beating Iris, Pure taking out Skyhigh and Piano beating Leta. Now Iris and Skyhigh can play stupid sometimes and Piano shows flashes of amazing, but I figure that there has to be some reason for the discrepancy. I'm going to look at the VODs and see if I can find something similar in the games.
Edit: Also, if we only look at proleague stats the map is 11:4 so there is something about it.
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On July 29 2009 15:11 Rainmaker5 wrote:
I wish this gave some map statistics though. Like Movie and Hiya looks like a bad match-up till you consider Colosseum likes Toss.
And also if you consider Hiya's recent performance against that of movie's, particularly against fantasy on outsider and leta on colo.
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On July 29 2009 16:41 Dazed_Spy wrote:Show nested quote +On July 29 2009 16:21 Rainmaker5 wrote:On July 29 2009 16:15 Dazed_Spy wrote:On July 29 2009 15:29 Rainmaker5 wrote:
I dunno if stats are very reliable here both Chos are doing some weird stuff. Snow and PerfectMan are probably sent as snipers and are going to do weird stuff and Colosseum is stacked towards Toss in PvTs. Can someone explain that one too? I don't see why. Seems like a Terran contain would work fine and though it's easy for toss to expand the big expansions leaves them open for drops. uh...its a 5 game difference. Statistically, statistics dont mean jack shit for 99% of the maps we have, Colo is one of em'. Even if you were to take iccup statistics or top foreigners opinions on a map, that means jack shit because balance changes amongst top pro gamers. Unless the balance of a map is drastic, or theres been confirmed statements by A class pro gamers on the balance of a map, any statement of a maps balance is worth jack shit. Five games is pretty significant. It's not battle royal bad, but there is something about the map that makes it lean Toss in the matchup. And you can't just say that's it's tough for Terran because they are up in TvZ. Also, the other half of my point is that when you put out players like PerfectMan, Killer and Snow you have some sort of plan in mind, so while the statistics read that yeah Iris, Kwanro and BackHo are better than their opponents the games hinge on whether they're good enough to deal with whatever crazy build or massive cheese comes their way. So stats aren't as important as experience here. I can see Kwanro or BackHo losing a game here just because their younger as players and haven't developed that clutch that older players get. I can never figure out tl's convoluted quote system, so to your first point 1) Five games is not significant. Just five good protoss bashing five bad terrans could make the difference. Just two games of cheese and three better protoss bashing two bad terrans could make the difference. Just one game where flash was too tired to practice for, two games of good protoss beating bad terrans with two cheeses, could make the difference. Five games is nothing. There is a science behind statistics, you have to take a certain amount of people to get an accurate cross section of societies opinions, for example. The same is true for this. For all we know colo is considerably favoured to terrans in the A team practice house 2) I agree.
Actually, if you look at who is sent out, 5 games can be significant. For example, if it's 2 ZvP, 2 ZvT and 1 ZvZ, you can tell that zergs have probably been doing very well on the map in practice and it probably favors zerg, even if they lose all their televised games.
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EPT
