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All-time Elo ratings by matchup - Page 3

Forum Index > BW General
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JWD
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States12607 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-07-09 16:16:29
July 09 2008 16:11 GMT
#41
This is fascinating, thanks.

More proof that BeSt's PvP is the greatest of all time.
✌
EtherealDeath
Profile Blog Joined July 2007
United States8366 Posts
July 09 2008 16:12 GMT
#42
Dang Best is already the best PvPer ever. But I guess that is expected from someone who goes 23-5 these days....damn. Makes me wish that July had lost to Backho so Best could pump his elo up even higher :-P

On another note, what's up with Flash's TvZ?
JWD
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States12607 Posts
July 09 2008 16:17 GMT
#43
In response to Letmelose, my statement above is not really based on the ELO rankings here but on all of the PvP's I've ever watched. You bring up some really good points about the validity of ranking players solely by ELO peak.


Would have edited this in rather than posting again, but I'm getting some kind of weird bug
✌
gravity
Profile Joined March 2004
Australia2198 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-07-09 16:22:42
July 09 2008 16:21 GMT
#44
On July 09 2008 23:06 oneofthem wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2008 22:48 gravity wrote:
On July 09 2008 20:53 Letmelose wrote:
So we're left with players like Iris having higher ELO peaks than Boxer. Lucifer with higher a ELO peak than IntoTheRain. Nal Ra and Nada having their ELO peaks past their actual prime. Actually, the ELO ratings are dominated by players of today with a few of the past legends squeezed here and there. I used to have a problem with this, but I don't anymore. Every pointing system has a flaw of some kind. I DO have a problem though, when people say ignorant things like "OOOOH Sea has the 2nd best TvT eva!!!" because his ELO points happens to represent him well.

If you're talking about absolute strength then obviously Iris at his peak was way better in Boxer at his peak (and so forth) due to the continually increasing overall skill level, so I don't see the problem with this.

But yes, there's no such thing as a perfect rating system and this is just one way of measuring a player's skill, but I happen to think it's a pretty accurate one as far as things go.

his point is not about absolute strength but relative dominance.

Well, given that the system forces the rating of new players to 2000.0, and given that the average strength of a new player keeps increasing, the system is a better measure of absolute strength than relative, so we should expect player's peaks to be higher in the modern era. Although I'm not enough of an expert on these systems to say for certain what the balance between relative vs. absolute measurement is for this particular implementation.
]343[
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States10328 Posts
July 09 2008 16:30 GMT
#45
This is cool! However, the TLPD sadly doesn't contain every game played in proleagues/starleagues/other competitions... so it could be slightly off :/
Writer
JWD
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States12607 Posts
July 09 2008 16:32 GMT
#46
On July 10 2008 01:30 ]343[ wrote:
This is cool! However, the TLPD sadly doesn't contain every game played in proleagues/starleagues/other competitions... so it could be slightly off :/


I'm almost positive TLPD contains every KeSPA-sanctioned game ever, and all games from major tourneys prior to the existence of KeSPA.
✌
LucasWoJ
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
United States936 Posts
July 09 2008 16:59 GMT
#47
I believe you're wrong. I remember checking a few times to find certain games go un-recorded. They may be added later, but some of the Proleague games didn't seem to be added for a stretch at the beginning of this year. (Can't say the same about the summer; they're usually added hours after the games are played.)

I completely agree with the ELO peaks and it definitely reflects what I thought to be accurate. During Jaedong's great ZvT stretch, I reflected on how good he was relative to oov's peak and I decided that he was probably even with ovv.

There was never any doubt about Savior being the #1 ZvP'er in the world at any stage. No one was as dominant as he was.

"Of all the words of mice and men, the saddest are it could have been." - Kurt Vonnegut
InfeSteD
Profile Blog Joined December 2006
United States4658 Posts
July 09 2008 17:37 GMT
#48
These rankings explaing everything about (T)Sea's play

he is basically:
#2(almost 1) TvT
#3 TvZ
#5 TvP


wow ;o!

and

(T)iloveoov's picture below is just ridiculous!

this is his TvZ in his prime
[image loading]
w/e
TheTyranid
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
Russian Federation4333 Posts
July 09 2008 18:19 GMT
#49
Casy not in the TvZ rankings? Wierd.

What place is he?
No_eL
Profile Joined July 2007
Chile1438 Posts
July 10 2008 00:34 GMT
#50
nal_ra appears in all lists!!! he is the protoss god of all times!!! =)
Beat after beat i will become stronger.
gravity
Profile Joined March 2004
Australia2198 Posts
July 10 2008 05:59 GMT
#51
On July 10 2008 03:19 TheTyranid wrote:
Casy not in the TvZ rankings? Wierd.

What place is he?

14th. It's a little surprising but there are a lot of good TvZ players and as far as I remember Casy was known more for his excellent M&M micro than for being super-dominant in the matchup altogether.
Mortality
Profile Blog Joined December 2005
United States4790 Posts
July 10 2008 08:03 GMT
#52
1. There is definitely inflation. ELO neither gives us a comparison of absolute skill nor does it truly even give us a comparison of relative dominance. If it did the former, then the list would be wholey dominated by current players; if it did the latter, we could expect the bonjwas of past to have a more complete sweep of the ratings.

If ELO compared relative dominance, then Boxer's ELO peak would be for sure top 10. Instead he is 22nd. He amassed 4 medals -- 3 gold -- with a truly awesome win record of 70% within his first 14 months as a progamer. He won with greater frequency than Flash (68% in his first 14 months) against the best of his era, but the difference in ELO is not even close. Oov had to win close to 80% for his first year in order to get close to Flash's ELO peak. Nada experienced peak ELO in IOPS, long after his skill had peaked.

Player deflation is not a problem because 1. players tend to retire below 2000, 2. when good players crash they tend to struggle to ever get back up again. If you look at current ELO ratings for past champions, you find:
Xellos - 2026
Ra - 2003
ggplay - 2058
casy - 1991
...etc

When a player falls from the top, the points they had gained get recycled back into the system. Meanwhile, points from players who are leaving at ELO below 2000 get permanently added to the system. Unlike in chess, dominance in Starcraft is short-lived, so ELO ratings change rapidly and new blood is cycled through very quickly.

2. A serious problem with ELO is that it assumes that you only win if you are the better player in absolute skill, but in Starcraft a lot depends on the map you play on and your playing style compared to your opponent's, not to mention luck. Having the right set of builds for the maps you play and/or facing off against the right set of opponents (your best match-up, styles you easily counter, etc) can lead to a string of victories that you wouldn't necessarily achieve on other maps or against other players.



It's not that I don't appreciate your work. This is very interesting stuff and there is currently no way better than ELO to compare peak performance. But in the end, I think stats if used correctly give a more coherant picture since you can break things down to examine trends as well as specializations in maps and match-ups and styles.

ELO cxannot tell you things like Oov > Nada > Xellos > Oov, which fans observed to be the case back around 2004. The ELO just gives one the highest peak. But if we consider a system of only those 3 gamers and hypotehtically assume that they win perfectly against the player they beat (Oov 100% vs nada, nada 100% vs xellos, xellos 100% vs oov), then the player who will achieve highest ELO would be the player who has the highest ration of games played against the person they beat relative to the number of games against the person who beats them. In this system where clearly no one is the best, a best is assigned. So while the stats may not be as absolute in terms of player ranking, the ELO ratings which do give us that also come with potentially serious flaws that CANNOT be unravelled.
Even though this Proleague bullshit has been completely bogus, I really, really, really do not see how Khan can lose this. I swear I will kill myself if they do. - nesix before KHAN lost to eNature
0z
Profile Joined August 2006
Luxembourg877 Posts
July 10 2008 08:24 GMT
#53
On July 10 2008 02:37 InfeSteD[rA] wrote:
These rankings explaing everything about (T)Sea's play

he is basically:
#2(almost 1) TvT
#3 TvZ
#5 TvP


wow ;o!

and

(T)iloveoov's picture below is just ridiculous!

this is his TvZ in his prime
[image loading]


wait, so oov won his FIRST 27 vsZ's
..oO
ForAdun
Profile Joined August 2007
Germany986 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-07-10 10:10:22
July 10 2008 10:10 GMT
#54
I'm glad oov got to play Jaedong a few times before he retired, if not it would've been a huge upset for me personally O_O
raga4ka
Profile Joined February 2008
Bulgaria5679 Posts
July 10 2008 11:33 GMT
#55
Jaedong is probably in the ZvP peaks right about now .
trollbone
Profile Blog Joined July 2007
France1905 Posts
July 10 2008 12:39 GMT
#56
yeah i thinks he will climb some more spots
UnS)DeathTrap
Profile Joined February 2008
Canada150 Posts
July 10 2008 12:59 GMT
#57
something to notice is the good position of nal_ra in all rankings
QibingZero
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
2611 Posts
July 10 2008 13:16 GMT
#58
On July 10 2008 01:12 EtherealDeath wrote:
Dang Best is already the best PvPer ever. But I guess that is expected from someone who goes 23-5 these days....damn. Makes me wish that July had lost to Backho so Best could pump his elo up even higher :-P

On another note, what's up with Flash's TvZ?


Flash has always been good in TvZ, but never as dominant as other terrans have been.

He's lost 3 of 5 series in the MSL/OSL in which he's played zergs.

Bo3:
Rumble - win, 2-0
Jaedong - win, 2-1
Luxury - loss, 0-2

Bo5:
GGPlay - loss, 3-2
Jaedong - loss, 3-1

Mainly because of game trading with Jaedong, he really hasn't been able to get on any kind of streak. Meanwhile, Jaedong continued to win vT after winning the MSL and losing to Flash in the other leagues (plus he had streaks of 13 and 8, and was 33-8 ZvT for the 8 months before that).

Oh, my eSports
QibingZero
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
2611 Posts
July 10 2008 13:29 GMT
#59
On July 10 2008 21:59 UnS)DeathTrap wrote:
something to notice is the good position of nal_ra in all rankings


I was glad to see a few posts expressing that sentiment in this thread. Kang Min's position on these lists should spark quite a bit of attention from some of the more oblivious folk around here, too. The PvZ rankings especially seem to reflect reality, as Bisu is the only protoss I've seen that could handle zergs better than rA (albeit in a different and less dramatic fashion).

It's especially noticeable that rA is so high on all the lists simply because he is among the old school gamers out there. An earlier posted noted how much harder it was for the older players like Boxer to get a high ELO.

It's a shame he never got the respect he deserved on the power ranking.
Oh, my eSports
gravity
Profile Joined March 2004
Australia2198 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-07-10 14:12:45
July 10 2008 14:08 GMT
#60
On July 10 2008 17:03 Mortality wrote:
Player deflation is not a problem because 1. players tend to retire below 2000, 2. when good players crash they tend to struggle to ever get back up again. If you look at current ELO ratings for past champions, you find:
Xellos - 2026
Ra - 2003
ggplay - 2058
casy - 1991
...etc

When a player falls from the top, the points they had gained get recycled back into the system. Meanwhile, points from players who are leaving at ELO below 2000 get permanently added to the system. Unlike in chess, dominance in Starcraft is short-lived, so ELO ratings change rapidly and new blood is cycled through very quickly.

As the Wiki link I posted shows, there can still be deflation even in this situation, because more points are not injected into the system when players get better over time - the average for new players stays at 2000 even though new players are much better now than then. This may very well be more significant than the retirement effect. But it's true that it's hard to say exactly how much the system is inflated/deflated.


2. A serious problem with ELO is that it assumes that you only win if you are the better player in absolute skill, but in Starcraft a lot depends on the map you play on and your playing style compared to your opponent's, not to mention luck. Having the right set of builds for the maps you play and/or facing off against the right set of opponents (your best match-up, styles you easily counter, etc) can lead to a string of victories that you wouldn't necessarily achieve on other maps or against other players.

Yes, this is an issue, as maps can have a big impact on balance. To get ideal accuracy, you'd actually want ratings for every matchup on every map, but unfortunately there isn't a large enough sample size - typically a player will only ever play a few games in a given matchup on a given map.


ELO cxannot tell you things like Oov > Nada > Xellos > Oov, which fans observed to be the case back around 2004. The ELO just gives one the highest peak. But if we consider a system of only those 3 gamers and hypotehtically assume that they win perfectly against the player they beat (Oov 100% vs nada, nada 100% vs xellos, xellos 100% vs oov), then the player who will achieve highest ELO would be the player who has the highest ration of games played against the person they beat relative to the number of games against the person who beats them. In this system where clearly no one is the best, a best is assigned. So while the stats may not be as absolute in terms of player ranking, the ELO ratings which do give us that also come with potentially serious flaws that CANNOT be unravelled.

Yes, the system does assume that skill is transitive (ie if a>b and b>c then a>c) and therefore doesn't directly account for circles like this. However, I don't think this is a particularly common situation over long time periods or for large numbers of games and therefore hopefully it doesn't have too much effect. You're right that it's possible for fans to observe trends that no simple numerical system can capture, but the Elo system does have the advantage of being consistent and unbiased.
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