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Renamed To ASL20 General Discussion.
WARNING: Contains Spoilers |
The maps have been bringing interesting games. And upsets. Good for the tourney and the scene
On August 31 2025 01:01 zutt0 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2025 00:07 Ideas wrote:
With 8 zergs in the Ro16 , a ZvZ final is looking inevitable. Not sure who has the best vZ right now for T/P. Snow? Light?
As far as I can tell ZvZ is basically a coin toss between all pros right now, everyone is pretty much on equal footing. Statistically, over the last 9 months, it's Light then Rush then Snow/Sharp. Light is 59.2% across top Zergs (Soulkey, Hero, Action, Queen, Jaedong, Soma, Effort). Rush is 56.7%, Snow is 53.6%, Sharp is 53.5%. If you dig deeper into the records, Light looks even more impressive because a relatively large chunk of his games are against Soulkey and a relatively small chunk of his games are against Jaedong and Action. Rush looks a little less impressive because he's basically farming Hero and Jaedong. The interesting thing is that the best vZ winrates are the Zergs themselves. Soma is 63.6%, Queen is 62.9%, and Jaedong is 61.1%. For reference, Soulkey is at 48%, Effort is at 50%, True is at 31.8%, and Larva is at 30%. The sample sizes for ZvZ are small (~20 games for most of these guys), so we can't read too much into this, but it supports the notion that we're in for a very Zerg-heavy Ro8.
That's interesting. Light being the best tvz'r is no surprise but even against SK ? They need to run over alot of zergs in the groups lol
On August 31 2025 16:10 prototype. wrote:
Stork looks washed. The new maps are producing pretty exciting games.
On August 30 2025 06:11 Crimson)S(hadow wrote:
TBH i wanted to see TY make the next round.... i'm expecting spicy things from him, such as TvP 4 or 5 rax similar to how scan used to do sometimes, using his sc2 championship level baneling split micro to spread m&m vs reaver scarabs
I really wanted TY to make it too but lets be real here. Aint no way you are replicating the sc2 splitting in bw so easily considering how lack of responsiveness bw units are lol
TY isnt gonna change bw micro considering he isnt the only sc2 to bw player around who had decent success
Also bio is so bad vs reaver lol
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United States8167 Posts
On August 31 2025 21:22 goody153 wrote:The maps have been bringing interesting games. And upsets. Good for the tourney and the scene Show nested quote +On August 31 2025 01:01 zutt0 wrote:On August 31 2025 00:07 Ideas wrote:
With 8 zergs in the Ro16 , a ZvZ final is looking inevitable. Not sure who has the best vZ right now for T/P. Snow? Light?
As far as I can tell ZvZ is basically a coin toss between all pros right now, everyone is pretty much on equal footing. Statistically, over the last 9 months, it's Light then Rush then Snow/Sharp. Light is 59.2% across top Zergs (Soulkey, Hero, Action, Queen, Jaedong, Soma, Effort). Rush is 56.7%, Snow is 53.6%, Sharp is 53.5%. If you dig deeper into the records, Light looks even more impressive because a relatively large chunk of his games are against Soulkey and a relatively small chunk of his games are against Jaedong and Action. Rush looks a little less impressive because he's basically farming Hero and Jaedong. The interesting thing is that the best vZ winrates are the Zergs themselves. Soma is 63.6%, Queen is 62.9%, and Jaedong is 61.1%. For reference, Soulkey is at 48%, Effort is at 50%, True is at 31.8%, and Larva is at 30%. The sample sizes for ZvZ are small (~20 games for most of these guys), so we can't read too much into this, but it supports the notion that we're in for a very Zerg-heavy Ro8. That's interesting. Light being the best tvz'r is no surprise but even against SK ? They need to run over alot of zergs in the groups lol Show nested quote +On August 31 2025 16:10 prototype. wrote:
Stork looks washed. The new maps are producing pretty exciting games. Show nested quote +On August 30 2025 06:11 Crimson)S(hadow wrote:
TBH i wanted to see TY make the next round.... i'm expecting spicy things from him, such as TvP 4 or 5 rax similar to how scan used to do sometimes, using his sc2 championship level baneling split micro to spread m&m vs reaver scarabs I really wanted TY to make it too but lets be real here. Aint no way you are replicating the sc2 splitting in bw so easily considering how lack of responsiveness bw units are lol TY isnt gonna change bw micro considering he isnt the only sc2 to bw player around who had decent success Also bio is so bad vs reaver lol
speaking of bio vs reaver: does anyone have a working VOD of that awesome game between kal and forgg in the arena MSL? https://tl.net/tlpd/korean/games/9269_ForGG_vs_Jila/main
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On August 29 2025 00:46 Peeano wrote:
That's fair. I think Soulkey is a bit overrated, especially since Best almost took him out. If Best can reach match point so can Bisu and Mini, who are no strangers to PvZ and playing best ofs.
7 games is a small sample size
a player who has 40% win rate vs. another player in any given game will win a bo7 around 29% of the time
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So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me.
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On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me.
What about Effort? You know what, Effort and Jaedong never competed at peak form. They only have 7 games in total with 3-4 split.
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Netherlands5354 Posts
On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me.
You're a casual on a forum. We're all speculating, because no one can predict the future or look into the minds of pros. Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened.
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On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me. You're a casual on a forum. We're all speculating, because no one can predict the future or look into the minds of pros. Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened.
I'm aware I'm a casual, while you all seem to not be aware of that fact, that's the thing. SK has won 4 ASL's in a row... in a row. Nobody has ever done that, even with all the diminishing of this accomplishment saying "oh but this era isn't as competitive/no teamhouses" blah blah blah....
"The best player in the world doesn't know what he was doing because he didn't clean sweep the runner-up" is just foolish talk. Lord, listen to yourself lol.
Of course people are allowed to/will speculate, its just completely asinine to talk like the 4peat ASL champion doesn't know what they need to do to be in champion shape...
As far as Effort goes, Effort is very, very capable of being a complete monster. He's just highly inconsistent, and that's why I'm not onboard the Effort train nowadays.
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Overall, an exciting, high-quality round of 24.
A. I thought Larva was going to win, but not in that fashion. It looked like he had never been away from ASL.
B. Bisu getting slack for his PvT doesn't make sense to me, it was always great. His PvZ/PvP were just godlike.
C. Really expected Mini to win his group, but I guess soma trained very hard in the military.
D. Happy for Effort, he always had this agressive and clean gameplay which still translates well to modern ZvZ. Disappointed in Calm, he can play better than this, especially ZvZ.
E. I feel like Jadeong is improving each time I see him, clearly putting in a lot of work, but his late-game was not convincing at all, being unable to keep up mechanically. I hope he can get himself a ro4 spot though.
F. Uhhhh... yeah. This group sadly put a black cloud above the ro24 with a ton of suspect turn of events. Whatever caused hero to play the way he did... I'm waiting for an explanation.
G. The new maps are great! More Roaring Currents, please 
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Netherlands5354 Posts
On September 01 2025 07:36 bw2ku wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me. You're a casual on a forum. We're all speculating, because no one can predict the future or look into the minds of pros. Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened. I'm aware I'm a casual, while you all seem to not be aware of that fact, that's the thing. SK has won 4 ASL's in a row... in a row. Nobody has ever done that, even with all the diminishing of this accomplishment saying "oh but this era isn't as competitive/no teamhouses" blah blah blah.... "The best player in the world doesn't know what he was doing because he didn't clean sweep the runner-up" is just foolish talk. Lord, listen to yourself lol. Of course people are allowed to/will speculate, its just completely asinine to talk like the 4peat ASL champion doesn't know what they need to do to be in champion shape... As far as Effort goes, Effort is very, very capable of being a complete monster. He's just highly inconsistent, and that's why I'm not onboard the Effort train nowadays.
"i'm gonna "quote" this guy as if he said clean sweep. Everyone will surely point and laugh at him."
Lord, listen to yourself lol
No one here is saying Soulkey is not the facourite. Some people are just saying he's not as hot as some casual on a forum claims he is.
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On September 01 2025 13:39 Peeano wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 07:36 bw2ku wrote:On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me. You're a casual on a forum. We're all speculating, because no one can predict the future or look into the minds of pros. Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened. I'm aware I'm a casual, while you all seem to not be aware of that fact, that's the thing. SK has won 4 ASL's in a row... in a row. Nobody has ever done that, even with all the diminishing of this accomplishment saying "oh but this era isn't as competitive/no teamhouses" blah blah blah.... "The best player in the world doesn't know what he was doing because he didn't clean sweep the runner-up" is just foolish talk. Lord, listen to yourself lol. Of course people are allowed to/will speculate, its just completely asinine to talk like the 4peat ASL champion doesn't know what they need to do to be in champion shape... As far as Effort goes, Effort is very, very capable of being a complete monster. He's just highly inconsistent, and that's why I'm not onboard the Effort train nowadays. "i'm gonna "quote" this guy as if he said clean sweep. Everyone will surely point and laugh at him." Lord, listen to yourself lol No one here is saying Soulkey is not the facourite. Some people are just saying he's not as hot as some casual on a forum claims he is.
Albeit Soulkey always gave terrific series. The one with Royal, then JyJ, then Snow, then Sharp, Rain, Best. There is a pattern here. He always macros first. Clean sweep is not his style. You might call him playing slower than a regular zerg.
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I had a dream where this season also concluded with a BeSt vs SK final and it ended up exactly with the same outcome as the previous one.
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i srsly need to touch some grass lOLRFL but this is what i think happens today.
A
Soulkey
Barracks
soma → Sharp
Mini
B
Best
BTS
effOrt
Bisu
C
SnOw
Sharp → soma
Rush
Jaedong
D
Light
Larva
Speed
Queen
 
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I was hyped for the matchups listed in the calendar until I realised it was just group selection, oops
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On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened.
again, winning 3 games against SK can happen even if you're not favored against him
if BeSt has a 40% win rate against SK, he's expected to win three games out of seven 58% of the time
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On September 01 2025 15:04 gravity wrote:
I was hyped for the matchups listed in the calendar until I realised it was just group selection, oops
lol banned
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On September 01 2025 15:09 iopq wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened. again, winning 3 games against SK can happen even if you're not favored against him if BeSt has a 40% win rate against SK, he's expected to win three games out of seven 58% of the time
if best has 40% wr vs SK, his chances of winning bo7 are less than 1 in 3, winning 3 games and losing 4-3 gives another ~15% to that, so best winning 3+ games in a bo7 vs SK is around 45%
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On September 01 2025 14:40 RogerChillingworth wrote:i srsly need to touch some grass lOLRFL but this is what i think happens today. ASoulkey Barracks soma → Sharp Mini BBest BTS effOrt Bisu CSnOw Sharp → soma Rush Jaedong DLight Larva Speed Queen
First pick of the group leader can't be switched, so in this case Soulkey can't swap Soma with Sharp but can swap Rush with soma (unless SnOw do pick Rush first like previous season)
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On September 01 2025 18:19 BoesFX wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 14:40 RogerChillingworth wrote:i srsly need to touch some grass lOLRFL but this is what i think happens today. ASoulkey Barracks soma → Sharp Mini BBest BTS effOrt Bisu CSnOw Sharp → soma Rush Jaedong DLight Larva Speed Queen First pick of the group leader can't be switched, so in this case Soulkey can't swap Soma with Sharp but can swap Rush with soma (unless SnOw do pick Rush first like previous season)
BUTTER MY BISCUIT
ok he swaps for Speed then
God are they just gonna speak Korean the whole time? ? ?
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konadora
Singapore66358 Posts
lol BTS is quite funny
he tried to get SK to pick him but SK didn't want to risk losing in a ZvZ, so he appealed to BeSt, and BeSt said they're somewhat of a rival, and BTS said if BeSt chooses him, he will be BeSt's dog for the day
then Best was asked if he's decided, and he said "yes, Taesu (BTS), go put your name there" and BTS immediately ran over to put his name into group B lmao
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EPT
