EPTASL20 General Discussion - Page 2
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Renamed To ASL20 General Discussion. WARNING: Contains Spoilers | ||
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TMNT
3378 Posts
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TornadoSteve
1137 Posts
Mini , D+ Larva, TRUE C- Speed, ZerO C Sharp C+ n/a B- Rush, effOrt B Bisu B+ BarrackS A- Jaedong A soma A+ | ||
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RogueTheGOAT
166 Posts
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zutt0
11 Posts
The data also indicated that Jaedong and Mong were going to be a lot better than they'd been in previous seasons, and I think that was borne out as well. Jaedong looked excellent. Mong didn't advance, but he looked very respectable despite it being a tough group. If he had been the Tier 3 player in A,B, F, or maybe even C, I think he could've made it. There were a couple surprises for me. Stork and sSak sucked. Stork statistically looked like a very solid TvT player over the last 9 months. He's about even with Rush, Barracks, and sSak and beating Royal handily. He did not look good at all against Ample. I didn't expect sSak to advance, but I didn't expect him to look as shaky as he did. Looking forward to Ro16, my guess is that Soulkey and Best will split Barracks and Speed in some order, Snow will pick Rush like he did last time, and Light will get to feast on True or Larva (and, if he can get them to go along with it, both). I will be surprised if Light does not end up with an all Zerg group. All of these Zergs advancing is obviously a huge problem for Soulkey. I do not think he will be able to avoid a ZvZ in Ro16 (he will probably to throw Mini, Bisu, or Rush at the Zerg in his group to snipe them). Queen and Soma are favored against him, and Effort and Jaedong are both serious threats. I still think he's the odds on favorite to win the tournament, but he hasn't looked this vulnerable since his first championship run. | ||
FlaShFTW
United States10568 Posts
On August 29 2025 23:04 zutt0 wrote: The data I collected suggested that JyJ, hero, and Royal are not doing as well as we'd typically exoect, and the results bore that out. Not only did all of them get eliminated - none of them looked very good in their games. The data also indicated that Jaedong and Mong were going to be a lot better than they'd been in previous seasons, and I think that was borne out as well. Jaedong looked excellent. Mong didn't advance, but he looked very respectable despite it being a tough group. If he had been the Tier 3 player in A,B, F, or maybe even C, I think he could've made it. There were a couple surprises for me. Stork and sSak sucked. Stork statistically looked like a very solid TvT player over the last 9 months. He's about even with Rush, Barracks, and sSak and beating Royal handily. He did not look good at all against Ample. I didn't expect sSak to advance, but I didn't expect him to look as shaky as he did. Looking forward to Ro16, my guess is that Soulkey and Best will split Barracks and Speed in some order, Snow will pick Rush like he did last time, and Light will get to feast on True or Larva (and, if he can get them to go along with it, both). I will be surprised if Light does not end up with an all Zerg group. All of these Zergs advancing is obviously a huge problem for Soulkey. I do not think he will be able to avoid a ZvZ in Ro16 (he will probably to throw Mini, Bisu, or Rush at the Zerg in his group to snipe them). Queen and Soma are favored against him, and Effort and Jaedong are both serious threats. I still think he's the odds on favorite to win the tournament, but he hasn't looked this vulnerable since his first championship run. When did Stork start race picking TvT? | ||
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TornadoSteve
1137 Posts
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Stopthevirtualaddict
49 Posts
On August 29 2025 04:38 Peeano wrote: "The guy" and then asking if I'm serious with 3 questions marks. I'm not basing SK being a bit (you forgot this part) overrated on just the last finals vs Best. Also lol at using past peak Rain for your argument and doing Soulkey dirty like that. Are you serious??? Sorry, i got triggered for no actual reason. I was rambling around like i do see many people do here. And wanted to do the same, i will try to be more polite and send reasonable post on this website. Have a nice day. | ||
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Crimson)S(hadow
Philippines965 Posts
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Kaal
Djibouti2570 Posts
On August 29 2025 21:19 TornadoSteve wrote: Those who made it Mini , D+ Larva, TRUE C- Speed, ZerO C Sharp C+ n/a B- Rush, effOrt B Bisu B+ BarrackS A- Jaedong A soma A+ Hard disagree on Jaedong. I didn't watch all of the ro24 games but I watched the first 4 groups and imo Jaedong's wins were extremely suspect. He could easily have lost all of his games, he was throwing so hard mid-late game and not playing up to quality. His early/early-mid game was great but he started to fall apart after and only his early advantage let him win. Very suspect multitasking was the big issue. He couldn't even put mutas into standby and then do something else then go back to mutas effectively. I think it's extremely plausible that he doesn't make ro8. | ||
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iFU.pauline
France1774 Posts
On August 30 2025 07:45 Kaal wrote: Hard disagree on Jaedong. I didn't watch all of the ro24 games but I watched the first 4 groups and imo Jaedong's wins were extremely suspect. He could easily have lost all of his games, he was throwing so hard mid-late game and not playing up to quality. His early/early-mid game was great but he started to fall apart after and only his early advantage let him win. Very suspect multitasking was the big issue. He couldn't even put mutas into standby and then do something else then go back to mutas effectively. I think it's extremely plausible that he doesn't make ro8. I find you a bit hard on Jaedong since he could have ended the game vs Rush much earlier if he wanted to. Remember, this was a bo1, pretty sure in a bo5 he would have not hesitated in going all in on 2 bases, Rush had no eco at all. As I see it, he obviously decided to play it safe securing the win with the advantage he got with his early harass. At some point the timing was tight, especially with that nydus on third but in the end, everything went according to plan. JD always was in ctrl of the game. And I think it is reassuring to see him opting for this kind of strat because it shows that he is confident in his skill even vs an opponent which is supposed to be better than him. | ||
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A.Alm
Sweden559 Posts
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Toshinou-Kyouko
Philippines681 Posts
As for the Ro16 onwards, I won't be surprised if it ends up as a Zerg fiesta. a lot of the zergs are looking good now. Hope soulkey is ready since from what I understand, the mirror matchup is also his weakest. | ||
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Ideas
United States8179 Posts
As far as I can tell ZvZ is basically a coin toss between all pros right now, everyone is pretty much on equal footing. | ||
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zutt0
11 Posts
On August 31 2025 00:07 Ideas wrote: With 8 zergs in the Ro16 , a ZvZ final is looking inevitable. Not sure who has the best vZ right now for T/P. Snow? Light? As far as I can tell ZvZ is basically a coin toss between all pros right now, everyone is pretty much on equal footing. Statistically, over the last 9 months, it's Light then Rush then Snow/Sharp. Light is 59.2% across top Zergs (Soulkey, Hero, Action, Queen, Jaedong, Soma, Effort). Rush is 56.7%, Snow is 53.6%, Sharp is 53.5%. If you dig deeper into the records, Light looks even more impressive because a relatively large chunk of his games are against Soulkey and a relatively small chunk of his games are against Jaedong and Action. Rush looks a little less impressive because he's basically farming Hero and Jaedong. The interesting thing is that the best vZ winrates are the Zergs themselves. Soma is 63.6%, Queen is 62.9%, and Jaedong is 61.1%. For reference, Soulkey is at 48%, Effort is at 50%, True is at 31.8%, and Larva is at 30%. The sample sizes for ZvZ are small (~20 games for most of these guys), so we can't read too much into this, but it supports the notion that we're in for a very Zerg-heavy Ro8. | ||
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RogueTheGOAT
166 Posts
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zutt0
11 Posts
On August 31 2025 01:39 RogueTheGOAT wrote: I would only look at stats for games played on the current map pool because that's what's going to be played and it represents more recent form. That would work well for players who play a ton, like Rush and Mini, but it would leave you with too little data for most players. You could say that that just goes to show that a data-based approach doesn't make any sense and we're better off with the eyeball test, and maybe we are (I'm not a good enough player to apply the eyeball test). But if you want a data-based approach, you need some way of filling in those gaps. You can either bring in ladder games or extend the window backward a little, and I think extending the window back makes more sense. | ||
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mtcn77
Turkey729 Posts
On August 31 2025 01:39 RogueTheGOAT wrote: I would only look at stats for games played on the current map pool because that's what's going to be played and it represents more recent form. With all due respect, I think pros play the game outside of the convention mapmakers intend the games to go. We both saw SK vs Best finals last game. The new KnockOut is aimed to balance that. However, pros can easily play outside the convention. Group C winners match between Soma and Bisu demonstrated this perfectly. You can hear the narrative change live as Tastosis says @1 hour 4 minutes, "This map is a solution to that" to @1hour 17 minutes, "here's the problem: it is very hard for Dragoons to break the contain here". | ||
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iopq
United States1183 Posts
On August 29 2025 08:45 TMNT wrote: I think Soulkey is not gonna win this season. No particular reason. Just feel like the odds of winning 5 in a row is too slim How many times someone won in a row doesn't change the chances of winning, other than psychologically (so if anything, it improves them since everyone is a bit more scared) | ||
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prototype.
Canada4215 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France8195 Posts
On August 31 2025 16:10 prototype. wrote: Stork looks washed. The new maps are producing pretty exciting games. Stork has been there for so long, there are ups and downs. Right now he looks kind of weak, but he still qualified for an ASL, which is a dream for a lot of extremely strong players, and he might just need to reset to perform very well again. I don’t think we will see him in a Ro4 or something, but there is no reason why he couldn’t be a force to be reckoned with if he decides to put on the hours. | ||
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