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[ASL10] Ro4 Preview: Odds In Favor

Forum Index > BW General
15 CommentsPost a Reply

[ASL10] Ro4 Preview: Odds In Favor

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
Graphics byv1
November 1st, 2020 07:55 GMT
ASL Season 10 Banner

Onto the semifinals between some of the most remarkable players in the scene today! No doubt that this season is somewhat Zerg dominated, partially because of the map pool, but also because Zerg players just seem to be on the rise again. But the real story is a tale as old as time: Who can beat Flash?

This time Flash has the disadvantage (?) of playing Random though, so there may be greater chances to knock him off his throne and derail the momentum he's built up in the Ro16 and the bracket stage so far. Keep tuned in for some wild and wacky games that will almost inevitably end in several ZvZs for the rest of the tournament!


Soulkey vs Larva by Blind-Rawr
Making History



This is a big match for both players. On one side we have (R)Flash who is poised to become the first ever Random player in a major finals, and on the other side (Z)Soma would become the first semi-pro/amateur player to ever make the ASL finals. Things only get interesting when both players have something they need to prove. Let's see who makes history here.

Both players were seeded directly in the Ro16 and both players have made it to the Ro4 undefeated. This is also Flash and Soma’s second BoX series. They last matched in the previous season in the 3rd place match. This time its a Bo7 and of course Flash is playing Random.

With sponbbang not tracking Flash’s matchups (or he genuinely doesn’t play that many sponmatches anymore) and Soma in general not playing sponmatches, not practicing on stream, it is hard to make any case for either using hard numbers and statistics.

Its safe to say that matchup wise Flash actually is at a disadvantage, We’ve seen how much of a dominating performance Soma has shown against Protoss players like Mini, Shuttle, and especially his Ro8 opponent Snow. While we haven’t seen it, Flash’s ZvZ is not at a level that would be considered favorable against a proper Zerg main at the level of Soma, and this only leaves him with his main race of Terran where he will always be favored. I think that even with a proper early/correct scout the only Zerg in the tournament who could manage to stand up to Flash’s Terran is ZerO.

The map picks tell do tell a lot while every map in the pool is on the card, the positions of them is dependent on the players. Flash’s picks were Plasma, Optimizer and Ringing Bloom—all pretty bad maps for Zerg against Random, and all maps where scouting and reading the opponent early is tantamount to victory, especially on Plasma where it's not just a matter of scouting right but also doing something about it...easily the worst map in the pool for Zerg. Much like against Snow, Soma is going to want to end his game on the map sooner rather than later regardless of the matchup rolled, while Ringing Bloom and Optimizer have great proxy harass and defensive potential for non Zerg matchups.

Soma's map picks were Benzene, Eclipse and Polypoid, the more straightforward maps, and Soma is trying his damnedest to keep Flash grounded and honest with both the 2 player maps coming within the first 4 sets so we will see play on them, and both maps are fairly good for ZvP, especially after what we've seen Soma do to Snow on Benzene.

The final map is Shakuras Temple, odds swing rapidly depending on what race Flash rolls. If Terran, he should win, if Protoss, he's in a big disadvantage...PvZ is pretty hard on this map.

All in all I suspect this won't be a long series, much like how the Ro8 has gone. Recently Flash has gone on record to say that he gets the most joy out of playing the game when he out mindgames his opponent...it's primarily why he's started playing random too. Maybe with the maps he's picked, he's signaling that he wants to beat soma with mindgames. However if scouting is good Soma would be the favorite against the non-Terran matchups, for that I give the odds at 55-45 in favor of Soma. If you’d a more of an in depth assessment of the odds, look at this thread(Credit to user 2sxy4u_BG).

I'm not sure as to how the final score will split.

(Z)Soma to advance to the Grand Finals!



Best vs ZerO by AllyssaGrey
Boss Gauntlet



(Z)Larva pummeled Soulkey to the ground and now he faces Soulkey's long time Stars teammate and close friend (Z)ZerO in a revenge match from ASL9 Ro8 a series that was down to the wire which ZerO managed to eek out a victory (and eventually the championship). Things may not go the same way this time.

Neither player has recorded many ZvZs in the last 2 months on sponbbang. Larva has been spending half the month practicing for his upcoming games, and ZvZ is an unpopular choice of matchup among fans for sponsor matches to happen. ZerO sits at a 61% win rate over the last 2 months, while Larva sits on a 46% win rate in the same period—their personal head to head is at 50% at 2-2.

ZerO has historically had a weak ZvZ matchup. However it's changed much this year that he has often become the favorite as he's become the #1 zerg in the world right now, in part due to the best mutalisk control among his peers. Once the game reaches a stage where he's able to pump out mutalisks, ZerO is pretty much unstoppable in the matchup...unless of course ZerO shows up to choke, which is always a possibility, even after winning last season.

Never let the stats convince you of anything though, especially with Larva involved. He's considered the spoiler of brackets for a reason, a wildcard of a character and player. It's not just the series against Soulkey but a genuine pattern of never backing down from a hard opponent and outplaying his opponent and using that momentum to drive his series forward. However it can also be said that when his momentum is derailed he is prone to play a lot more erratic or all-in like—but at least we don't have Inner Coven this time around.

Its not often you see a ZvZ where both players are very well versed in every aspect of the matchup from zergling fights to muta scourge control to even the more rare and wacky elements of the matchup. Expect things like delayed spires from both players with more static defense at home (a modified version of the great build), hidden 3rd hatch, or someone actually pulling off the offensive sunken bust—something that both Larva and Soulkey tried and failed in their series.

Would not be surprised if ZerO managed to do a hidden hatch inside Larva’s base on Benzene or Plasma.


(Z)ZerO advances to the Grand Finals!
Writers: BLinD-RawR
Editor: Allyssa Grey
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BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50245 Posts
November 01 2020 08:06 GMT
#2
I'm guessing picking soma is going to be an unpopular opinion.
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
TL+ Member
MeSaber
Profile Joined December 2009
Sweden1235 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-01 08:41:22
November 01 2020 08:40 GMT
#3
I picked Flash/Zero.

I wouldnt be surprised however if it becomes Soma/Larva.
-.-
confluxy
Profile Joined December 2018
3 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-01 09:15:02
November 01 2020 09:11 GMT
#4
Is this happening today? I can't find the youtube stream but liquipedia says it's supposed to be in 40 minutes.

edit: nvm now it's there
M3t4PhYzX
Profile Joined March 2019
Poland4200 Posts
November 01 2020 09:22 GMT
#5
the random hype train, choo choo's on.
odi profanum vulgus et arceo
TornadoSteve
Profile Joined March 2018
1062 Posts
November 01 2020 09:25 GMT
#6
Two flips
Abjurer
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Sweden208 Posts
November 01 2020 09:29 GMT
#7
Thanks for writeup! Rooting for Soma and Larva. Would love to see Larva win a title after all his hard work.
bw<3 cj<3
D10
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
Brazil3409 Posts
November 01 2020 11:08 GMT
#8
Hey, I missed the whole tournament thus far, is there any place where I can see the brackets ?
" We are not humans having spiritual experiences. - We are spirits having human experiences." - Pierre Teilhard de Chardin
razorsuKe
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Canada2000 Posts
November 01 2020 11:16 GMT
#9
On November 01 2020 20:08 D10 wrote:
Hey, I missed the whole tournament thus far, is there any place where I can see the brackets ?


(Wiki)2020 AfreecaTV Starleague Season 10
EntusGalleries.com - CJ Uniform Sale
D10
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
Brazil3409 Posts
November 01 2020 11:31 GMT
#10
thanks a lot
" We are not humans having spiritual experiences. - We are spirits having human experiences." - Pierre Teilhard de Chardin
Cricketer12
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States13975 Posts
November 01 2020 21:23 GMT
#11
regardless of what the results are, we are guaranteed 2 Flash Random series, all is well.
Kaina + Drones Linkcro Summon Cupsie Yummy Way
Zeronova
Profile Joined September 2020
54 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-02 04:30:18
November 02 2020 04:26 GMT
#12
+ Show Spoiler +
Feels like this preview was super late. I was on the fence for Flash Soma. Pretty disappointed Flash lost, especially after he started so well. More excited to see Flash in the third place match than watch the finals


Going with Queen here. Larva has improved so much, including ZvZ but Queen is the man to beat. It’s going to take everything Larva has to win. Whichever player wins, I favor them in the finals.

Edit: why no map scores in the predictions?
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50245 Posts
November 02 2020 11:40 GMT
#13
it was a little late

wasn't confident for scores.
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
TL+ Member
prosatan
Profile Joined September 2009
Romania8215 Posts
November 02 2020 11:46 GMT
#14
On November 02 2020 20:40 BLinD-RawR wrote:
it was a little late

wasn't confident for scores.

+ Show Spoiler +
Good calls !
Lee JaeDong Fighting! The only church that illuminates is the one that burns.
ffswowsucks
Profile Blog Joined August 2005
Greece2297 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-03 17:44:19
November 02 2020 19:18 GMT
#15
+ Show Spoiler [Spoiled matches and definitely won't g…] +
my predictions were spot on. now zero vs soma, I would bet on zerO to be honest. Also can I please get a custom made icon for my profile when ASL finishes and im still no.1 on liquibet ranking? :D

P.S: I would love to see the match history of players get updated since currently no history of the ASL games get into the player profiles.


Terran in particular is a notoriously strong race for a no brain skillhand bot style.
Zeronova
Profile Joined September 2020
54 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-03 17:44:38
November 03 2020 05:20 GMT
#16
+ Show Spoiler +
[ now zero vs soma


What about Flash Larva? Head says Larva for me. Heart says Flash though
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