• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 00:00
CEST 06:00
KST 13:00
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
RSL Season 1 - Final Week6[ASL19] Finals Recap: Standing Tall12HomeStory Cup 27 - Info & Preview18Classic wins Code S Season 2 (2025)16Code S RO4 & Finals Preview: herO, Rogue, Classic, GuMiho0
Community News
Esports World Cup 2025 - Brackets Revealed10Weekly Cups (July 7-13): Classic continues to roll4Team TLMC #5 - Submission extension3Firefly given lifetime ban by ESIC following match-fixing investigation17$25,000 Streamerzone StarCraft Pro Series announced7
StarCraft 2
General
RSL Revival patreon money discussion thread Who will win EWC 2025? The GOAT ranking of GOAT rankings Weekly Cups (July 7-13): Classic continues to roll Esports World Cup 2025 - Brackets Revealed
Tourneys
FEL Cracov 2025 (July 27) - $8000 live event RSL: Revival, a new crowdfunded tournament series $5,100+ SEL Season 2 Championship (SC: Evo) WardiTV Mondays Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament
Strategy
How did i lose this ZvP, whats the proper response Simple Questions Simple Answers
Custom Maps
External Content
Mutation # 482 Wheel of Misfortune Mutation # 481 Fear and Lava Mutation # 480 Moths to the Flame Mutation # 479 Worn Out Welcome
Brood War
General
Flash Announces (and Retracts) Hiatus From ASL BW General Discussion BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ Starcraft in widescreen A cwal.gg Extension - Easily keep track of anyone
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues Cosmonarchy Pro Showmatches CSL Xiamen International Invitational [BSL20] Non-Korean Championship 4x BSL + 4x China
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers I am doing this better than progamers do.
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread Path of Exile CCLP - Command & Conquer League Project The PlayStation 5
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Stop Killing Games - European Citizens Initiative Summer Games Done Quick 2025! Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine
Fan Clubs
SKT1 Classic Fan Club! Maru Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Movie Discussion! Anime Discussion Thread [\m/] Heavy Metal Thread
Sports
Formula 1 Discussion TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 2024 - 2025 Football Thread NBA General Discussion NHL Playoffs 2024
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Men Take Risks, Women Win Ga…
TrAiDoS
momentary artworks from des…
tankgirl
from making sc maps to makin…
Husyelt
StarCraft improvement
iopq
Trip to the Zoo
micronesia
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 647 users

[ASL10] Ro4 Preview: Odds In Favor

Forum Index > BW General
15 CommentsPost a Reply

[ASL10] Ro4 Preview: Odds In Favor

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
Graphics byv1
November 1st, 2020 07:55 GMT
ASL Season 10 Banner

Onto the semifinals between some of the most remarkable players in the scene today! No doubt that this season is somewhat Zerg dominated, partially because of the map pool, but also because Zerg players just seem to be on the rise again. But the real story is a tale as old as time: Who can beat Flash?

This time Flash has the disadvantage (?) of playing Random though, so there may be greater chances to knock him off his throne and derail the momentum he's built up in the Ro16 and the bracket stage so far. Keep tuned in for some wild and wacky games that will almost inevitably end in several ZvZs for the rest of the tournament!


Soulkey vs Larva by Blind-Rawr
Making History



This is a big match for both players. On one side we have (R)Flash who is poised to become the first ever Random player in a major finals, and on the other side (Z)Soma would become the first semi-pro/amateur player to ever make the ASL finals. Things only get interesting when both players have something they need to prove. Let's see who makes history here.

Both players were seeded directly in the Ro16 and both players have made it to the Ro4 undefeated. This is also Flash and Soma’s second BoX series. They last matched in the previous season in the 3rd place match. This time its a Bo7 and of course Flash is playing Random.

With sponbbang not tracking Flash’s matchups (or he genuinely doesn’t play that many sponmatches anymore) and Soma in general not playing sponmatches, not practicing on stream, it is hard to make any case for either using hard numbers and statistics.

Its safe to say that matchup wise Flash actually is at a disadvantage, We’ve seen how much of a dominating performance Soma has shown against Protoss players like Mini, Shuttle, and especially his Ro8 opponent Snow. While we haven’t seen it, Flash’s ZvZ is not at a level that would be considered favorable against a proper Zerg main at the level of Soma, and this only leaves him with his main race of Terran where he will always be favored. I think that even with a proper early/correct scout the only Zerg in the tournament who could manage to stand up to Flash’s Terran is ZerO.

The map picks tell do tell a lot while every map in the pool is on the card, the positions of them is dependent on the players. Flash’s picks were Plasma, Optimizer and Ringing Bloom—all pretty bad maps for Zerg against Random, and all maps where scouting and reading the opponent early is tantamount to victory, especially on Plasma where it's not just a matter of scouting right but also doing something about it...easily the worst map in the pool for Zerg. Much like against Snow, Soma is going to want to end his game on the map sooner rather than later regardless of the matchup rolled, while Ringing Bloom and Optimizer have great proxy harass and defensive potential for non Zerg matchups.

Soma's map picks were Benzene, Eclipse and Polypoid, the more straightforward maps, and Soma is trying his damnedest to keep Flash grounded and honest with both the 2 player maps coming within the first 4 sets so we will see play on them, and both maps are fairly good for ZvP, especially after what we've seen Soma do to Snow on Benzene.

The final map is Shakuras Temple, odds swing rapidly depending on what race Flash rolls. If Terran, he should win, if Protoss, he's in a big disadvantage...PvZ is pretty hard on this map.

All in all I suspect this won't be a long series, much like how the Ro8 has gone. Recently Flash has gone on record to say that he gets the most joy out of playing the game when he out mindgames his opponent...it's primarily why he's started playing random too. Maybe with the maps he's picked, he's signaling that he wants to beat soma with mindgames. However if scouting is good Soma would be the favorite against the non-Terran matchups, for that I give the odds at 55-45 in favor of Soma. If you’d a more of an in depth assessment of the odds, look at this thread(Credit to user 2sxy4u_BG).

I'm not sure as to how the final score will split.

(Z)Soma to advance to the Grand Finals!



Best vs ZerO by AllyssaGrey
Boss Gauntlet



(Z)Larva pummeled Soulkey to the ground and now he faces Soulkey's long time Stars teammate and close friend (Z)ZerO in a revenge match from ASL9 Ro8 a series that was down to the wire which ZerO managed to eek out a victory (and eventually the championship). Things may not go the same way this time.

Neither player has recorded many ZvZs in the last 2 months on sponbbang. Larva has been spending half the month practicing for his upcoming games, and ZvZ is an unpopular choice of matchup among fans for sponsor matches to happen. ZerO sits at a 61% win rate over the last 2 months, while Larva sits on a 46% win rate in the same period—their personal head to head is at 50% at 2-2.

ZerO has historically had a weak ZvZ matchup. However it's changed much this year that he has often become the favorite as he's become the #1 zerg in the world right now, in part due to the best mutalisk control among his peers. Once the game reaches a stage where he's able to pump out mutalisks, ZerO is pretty much unstoppable in the matchup...unless of course ZerO shows up to choke, which is always a possibility, even after winning last season.

Never let the stats convince you of anything though, especially with Larva involved. He's considered the spoiler of brackets for a reason, a wildcard of a character and player. It's not just the series against Soulkey but a genuine pattern of never backing down from a hard opponent and outplaying his opponent and using that momentum to drive his series forward. However it can also be said that when his momentum is derailed he is prone to play a lot more erratic or all-in like—but at least we don't have Inner Coven this time around.

Its not often you see a ZvZ where both players are very well versed in every aspect of the matchup from zergling fights to muta scourge control to even the more rare and wacky elements of the matchup. Expect things like delayed spires from both players with more static defense at home (a modified version of the great build), hidden 3rd hatch, or someone actually pulling off the offensive sunken bust—something that both Larva and Soulkey tried and failed in their series.

Would not be surprised if ZerO managed to do a hidden hatch inside Larva’s base on Benzene or Plasma.


(Z)ZerO advances to the Grand Finals!
Writers: BLinD-RawR
Editor: Allyssa Grey
Facebook Twitter Reddit
TL+ Member
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50118 Posts
November 01 2020 08:06 GMT
#2
I'm guessing picking soma is going to be an unpopular opinion.
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
TL+ Member
MeSaber
Profile Joined December 2009
Sweden1235 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-01 08:41:22
November 01 2020 08:40 GMT
#3
I picked Flash/Zero.

I wouldnt be surprised however if it becomes Soma/Larva.
-.-
confluxy
Profile Joined December 2018
3 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-01 09:15:02
November 01 2020 09:11 GMT
#4
Is this happening today? I can't find the youtube stream but liquipedia says it's supposed to be in 40 minutes.

edit: nvm now it's there
M3t4PhYzX
Profile Joined March 2019
Poland4187 Posts
November 01 2020 09:22 GMT
#5
the random hype train, choo choo's on.
odi profanum vulgus et arceo
TornadoSteve
Profile Joined March 2018
1016 Posts
November 01 2020 09:25 GMT
#6
Two flips
Abjurer
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Sweden208 Posts
November 01 2020 09:29 GMT
#7
Thanks for writeup! Rooting for Soma and Larva. Would love to see Larva win a title after all his hard work.
bw<3 cj<3
D10
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
Brazil3409 Posts
November 01 2020 11:08 GMT
#8
Hey, I missed the whole tournament thus far, is there any place where I can see the brackets ?
" We are not humans having spiritual experiences. - We are spirits having human experiences." - Pierre Teilhard de Chardin
razorsuKe
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Canada2000 Posts
November 01 2020 11:16 GMT
#9
On November 01 2020 20:08 D10 wrote:
Hey, I missed the whole tournament thus far, is there any place where I can see the brackets ?


(Wiki)2020 AfreecaTV Starleague Season 10
EntusGalleries.com - CJ Uniform Sale
D10
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
Brazil3409 Posts
November 01 2020 11:31 GMT
#10
thanks a lot
" We are not humans having spiritual experiences. - We are spirits having human experiences." - Pierre Teilhard de Chardin
Cricketer12
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States13974 Posts
November 01 2020 21:23 GMT
#11
regardless of what the results are, we are guaranteed 2 Flash Random series, all is well.
Kaina + Drones Linkcro Summon Cupsie Yummy Way
Zeronova
Profile Joined September 2020
54 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-02 04:30:18
November 02 2020 04:26 GMT
#12
+ Show Spoiler +
Feels like this preview was super late. I was on the fence for Flash Soma. Pretty disappointed Flash lost, especially after he started so well. More excited to see Flash in the third place match than watch the finals


Going with Queen here. Larva has improved so much, including ZvZ but Queen is the man to beat. It’s going to take everything Larva has to win. Whichever player wins, I favor them in the finals.

Edit: why no map scores in the predictions?
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50118 Posts
November 02 2020 11:40 GMT
#13
it was a little late

wasn't confident for scores.
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
TL+ Member
prosatan
Profile Joined September 2009
Romania7995 Posts
November 02 2020 11:46 GMT
#14
On November 02 2020 20:40 BLinD-RawR wrote:
it was a little late

wasn't confident for scores.

+ Show Spoiler +
Good calls !
Lee JaeDong Fighting! The only church that illuminates is the one that burns.
ffswowsucks
Profile Blog Joined August 2005
Greece2294 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-03 17:44:19
November 02 2020 19:18 GMT
#15
+ Show Spoiler [Spoiled matches and definitely won't g…] +
my predictions were spot on. now zero vs soma, I would bet on zerO to be honest. Also can I please get a custom made icon for my profile when ASL finishes and im still no.1 on liquibet ranking? :D

P.S: I would love to see the match history of players get updated since currently no history of the ASL games get into the player profiles.


Terran in particular is a notoriously strong race for a no brain skillhand bot style.
Zeronova
Profile Joined September 2020
54 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-03 17:44:38
November 03 2020 05:20 GMT
#16
+ Show Spoiler +
[ now zero vs soma


What about Flash Larva? Head says Larva for me. Heart says Flash though
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
PiGosaur Monday
00:00
#40
davetesta36
Liquipedia
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
Nina 271
RuFF_SC2 163
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 17976
Sharp 66
Icarus 10
LuMiX 2
Dota 2
NeuroSwarm137
Counter-Strike
Stewie2K326
Super Smash Bros
hungrybox626
Mew2King79
Other Games
summit1g14377
ViBE216
Trikslyr56
CosmosSc2 53
ROOTCatZ35
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick3151
BasetradeTV19
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 19 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Berry_CruncH308
• Light_VIP 85
• practicex 27
• OhrlRock 3
• IndyKCrew
• Migwel
• sooper7s
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• LaughNgamezSOOP
StarCraft: Brood War
• iopq 1
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
League of Legends
• masondota2700
• Lourlo642
• Stunt313
Other Games
• Scarra1441
Upcoming Events
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
12h
Replay Cast
20h
The PondCast
1d 6h
OSC
1d 9h
WardiTV European League
1d 12h
Replay Cast
1d 20h
Epic.LAN
2 days
CranKy Ducklings
3 days
Epic.LAN
3 days
CSO Contender
3 days
[ Show More ]
BSL20 Non-Korean Champi…
3 days
Bonyth vs Sziky
Dewalt vs Hawk
Hawk vs QiaoGege
Sziky vs Dewalt
Mihu vs Bonyth
Zhanhun vs QiaoGege
QiaoGege vs Fengzi
Sparkling Tuna Cup
4 days
Online Event
4 days
BSL20 Non-Korean Champi…
4 days
Bonyth vs Zhanhun
Dewalt vs Mihu
Hawk vs Sziky
Sziky vs QiaoGege
Mihu vs Hawk
Zhanhun vs Dewalt
Fengzi vs Bonyth
Esports World Cup
6 days
ByuN vs Astrea
Lambo vs HeRoMaRinE
Clem vs TBD
Solar vs Zoun
SHIN vs Reynor
Maru vs TriGGeR
herO vs Lancer
Cure vs ShoWTimE
Liquipedia Results

Completed

CSL 17: 2025 SUMMER
RSL Revival: Season 1
Murky Cup #2

Ongoing

JPL Season 2
BSL 2v2 Season 3
Copa Latinoamericana 4
Jiahua Invitational
BSL20 Non-Korean Championship
Championship of Russia 2025
FISSURE Playground #1
BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025
ESL Impact League Season 7
IEM Dallas 2025
PGL Astana 2025
Asian Champions League '25
BLAST Rivals Spring 2025
MESA Nomadic Masters

Upcoming

CSL Xiamen Invitational
CSL Xiamen Invitational: ShowMatche
2025 ACS Season 2
CSLPRO Last Chance 2025
CSLPRO Chat StarLAN 3
BSL Season 21
K-Championship
RSL Revival: Season 2
SEL Season 2 Championship
uThermal 2v2 Main Event
FEL Cracov 2025
Esports World Cup 2025
Underdog Cup #2
ESL Pro League S22
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
Esports World Cup 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall Qual
IEM Cologne 2025
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.