Fantasy Proleague 11-12 R1 Signup/Discussion - Page 45

The basic strategy for choosing a successful/winning FPL team, is to choose a (main)team that makes best use of the 30 points available (best cost benefit ratio); if a selection from the 10 or so players on one team, is presumably best able to satisfy this requirement, then that is a fine strategic decision - if the players on one team do not presumably best satisfy the requirement, then a limited selection from the ~10 players on one team is an unnecessary and detrimental restriction. Whether or not the last FPL team won with players from only one team, and whether or not these types of teams should be allowed to win, seems fairly irrelevant, because in general it will be much more difficult to win in this manner (well done and congratulations to anyone who can manage this). Additionally, with regards to FPL, with the exception of the consideration of "+1 team win points," the conceptualization of players belonging to a certain team, is mostly just an arbitrary/irrelevant grouping, which may or may not serve to limit the selection of players for an individual - in the same manner, an individual will often unnecessarily limit "his" choices to a number of his favourite players - in this case, and in the other, I don't know if it would really be a matter of luck, so much as someone just choosing a sub optimal, or simply, bad team - if such a team did win, it would be neither here nor there, because an individual result in this case would not be too important - true success would be determined in the long run(over multiple trials) by making effective decisions based on the available information. - additionally, because individuals often unnecessarily restrict their selection pool for a variety of reasons, discriminating against just one source of restriction - in this case, selecting from 1 team - would set a precedent that would be difficult to follow, if not impossible.

But if it's "entirely reasonable" why is it also "luck rather than skill"?

I guess it seems to me that this entire thing has a good deal of luck involved in it. For instance, if you told me ZerO played his first three games against Stork, Calm, and fantasy, I'd assume he want 3-0 or at worst 2-1 with some dumb ZvZ mistake. Instead, he's 0-3 after getting stomped by an unusual timing by Stork, losing both BO and micro battles to Calm, and... whatever that game vs fantasy was.

If anything, going CJ-heavy would seem to be minimizing luck: they are clearly going to do well, they have clear aces who will play a lot, the only real question was EffOrt and everybody was saying he was playing well. It's like picking Green Bay for the Super Bowl or Barcelona to win La Liga: sure, there are ways to beat them, but common sense says it's a sensible bet.

And SKT was that team last year, too: they ended every round except WL with the best score.

Yeah there's definitely a lot of luck involved. But FPL is like a poker tournament. You can make all the right decision at the start when picking a team and still do poorly. Just as you can be a Jamie Gold and mostly just get incredibly lucky throughout. My only point is that picking players from 1 team and that team as well cannot be optimal because you can never get the maximum number of points from both team and players. Unless (and this is why I said I felt CJ might be an exception) you went for 3 A-line players from CJ (lets say Effort, Hydra and Horang2) and 3 b-teamers who are there for padding to fill out a roster (and you just want their team points) and then your team hinges on CJ always playing those 3 and 3-0'ing.

Again though, why did the person pick those 3 a-level players and those 3 b-teamers as their players? If its because they went through the stats and honestly felt those were the 3 best picks, then congratulations. If it's because they're just a big fan of x-team, then well done you got lucky (and your picks may or not have been good)