|
On July 19 2011 00:38 Lebesgue wrote:
But I've notice one issue: The y-axis have different range in different plots. This makes it hard to compare figures by just eyeballing. Rule number one is to have the same range.
I considered that, but to give every team the 65 to -35 range would have "flattened" most teams comparisons: the main point of this write-up was to look at how teams' wins are distributed, more than to directly compare team to team. In a sense it's unfortunate, because then we get this:
On July 19 2011 00:23 Caos2 wrote:
Awesome post! I was quite surprise to see T1's chart looks quite a lot like KT's.
And it does (also like OZ's), but mainly because Bisu's got about an extra ten wins on Flash. Using a universal scale would have made that clearer, but made in-team comparisons for teams like Woongjin and WeMade less clear.
On July 19 2011 00:11 Elroi wrote:
I do think that you exaggerate KT's lack of depth though. I think it is a deep team, but almost all the players have been underperforming from time to time. Since atleast two of them seemed capable of taking games very regularly at every point in time and Flash taking ace, they won very often imo. I don't think it was because of exceptional coaching.
At some point, supposed "depth" underperforming becomes actual lack of depth. KT to my knowledge has never been considered a deep team: "KTFlash" is a joke for a reason. Last year was unique in that KT added Stats and Violet to help Flash, giving them 3-deep on a Bo5 schedule. They also had fOrGG, and although there wasn't an Action or Crazy-Hydra caliber Zerg they still had FireFist and 815, so the depth there was about the same. This year KT looked okay going into the season, with Action/Stats/Violet/fOrGG meaning they could expect to be plausibly 4 or 5 deep on a Bo7 schedule. But they lost fOrGG and Violet; the majority of Stats' wins came in WL; and Action still has jitters that keep him mediocre (see vs. free in playoffs). They're not in trouble, exactly, and the more I think about it CH is a key pickup, but the drop-off after Action is simply huge. KT's depth is probably average and Flash makes up for a lot; but still, consider the record. They went 16-2 in WL, meaning they went 16-20 in the other four rounds - that doesn't say "depth" to me.
On July 19 2011 00:39 Crunchums wrote:
The one point I want to make is you talk about what each losing team needs to do in order to become a threat, but no matter how much any team improves PL is still zero-sum - something that's easy to forget with the tightly packed standings of this season. Every team could make the improvements you list and some of them will still necessarily miss the playoffs.
Oh, of course. But that doesn't mean they can't improve. Whether they will or not is anybody's guess, and how much. If I had to guess, I'd say ACE will regress, MBC will about hold even, OZ will improve but maybe not enough, WeMade will get more out of Wooki but less out of at least one of Mind/RorO/Shine, - all the teams I see poised to make improvements are this year's playoff teams (Calm + Kal back in form, Light for a whole season at Stars, KHAN's rookies maturing, KT getting CH into the rotation, SKT adding Sun for real (although I'd be surprised if they stay two-deep on the Zerg end), CJ getting EffOrt back. But I'll be writing more on that subject later.
|
fantasy needs to be clutch in the finals, or it's gonna get really interesting.
|
On July 19 2011 02:13 VGhost wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2011 00:39 Crunchums wrote:
The one point I want to make is you talk about what each losing team needs to do in order to become a threat, but no matter how much any team improves PL is still zero-sum - something that's easy to forget with the tightly packed standings of this season. Every team could make the improvements you list and some of them will still necessarily miss the playoffs. Oh, of course. But that doesn't mean they can't improve. Whether they will or not is anybody's guess, and how much. If I had to guess, I'd say ACE will regress, MBC will about hold even, OZ will improve but maybe not enough, WeMade will get more out of Wooki but less out of at least one of Mind/RorO/Shine, - all the teams I see poised to make improvements are this year's playoff teams (Calm + Kal back in form, Light for a whole season at Stars, KHAN's rookies maturing, KT getting CH into the rotation, SKT adding Sun for real (although I'd be surprised if they stay two-deep on the Zerg end), CJ getting EffOrt back. But I'll be writing more on that subject later.
I guess my point is that a team could easily change in absolute strength but change differently in terms of strength relative to the other teams. For example, I also expect that MBC will remain about the same in terms of the strength of their team, but if that happens I would expect them to drop in the standings.
|
United States335 Posts
Really great recap and analysis of the year, thanks for this. I look forward to the next part in the series.
The formation of a new team would be exciting but unlikely to say the least. Really I just hope we don't lose any more teams this summer.
|
On July 18 2011 13:44 VGhost wrote:
KT Rolster has the best damn coach in the business.
Just out of curiosity, what's the basis for that claim?
|
|
|
i feel compelled to briefly state my thoughts here -
ACE - Unless they pick up a couple of stronger players they are going to do worse next season.
MBC - Light leaving was a huge blow that they will not recover from any time soon. Currently this team is not a playoff threat even when they are firing on all cylinders. I would be surprised if they are not one of the 3 worst teams next season.
FOX - The team with the highest variance. They could make the playoffs or be the second worse team next season and neither outcome would surprise me. Playoffs are as easy as Baby finding his mojo again and Wooki living up to the promise he has shown without Roro/Mind/Shine/Midas dropping off too much, and if they get there they have the depth and strength to put up a fight, but who knows whether any of those things will happen.
Oz - Jaedong is still Jaedong and Killer has developed into a reliable #2. The big questions here are what is going on with Hiya (my own guess is that his current performance is reflective of his actual skill but then why is he consistently so successful in WL??) and can they find a player outside of those 3 better than Perfectman. Without some serious improvement in their non-Jaedong non-Killer players this is a team constructed to scrape to make it to the ace match and then hope Jaedong can pull it out - that is not a recipe for success in the playoffs. My guess is they finish in a similar position next season.
STX - With the emergence of Bogus, STX has all the pieces to succeed. Bogus/Kal/Calm/Shuttle is a strong core and STX has always had the strongest roleplayers. The obvious question mark is whether Kal and Calm can stop performing so erratically - they're basically the Protoss and Zerg version of fantasy except their team can't keep chugging along when they trip up - but as strong as STX would be if that happens I would still question their ability to hang with SKT and CJ. Hang in their STX fans, next season STX will probably win a playoff match before their inevitable, disappointing collapse.
And to answer your question, no, by.hero will never be legitimately good.
KHAN - Things look promising for KHAN - they've got a slew of promising newer players (Brave, Turn, Reality, Grape...), Stork, and Jangbi is back with a vengeance. great isn't going to cut it so they'll need some of those newer players to realize their potential. If none of that potential gets realized they might struggle to make the playoffs, if some of it gets realized they should make the playoffs easily but be unable to compete with the top 2-3 teams, if a lot of it gets realized they are a contender for the title.
Stars - I completely agree that losing Crazy-Hydra hurt them a lot and that free looks washed up. Stars would benefit a lot from the emergence of a player outside of Zero/Soulkey/Light/Really as that depth would give them a huge advantage against every team outside of CJ, but if that doesn't happen they'll probably still be at least the third best team after CJ and SKT.
KT - No way they finished this high next season. I would be surprised if Stats is able to maintain that level of performance but even if he drops off he'll still be KT's #2, Action isn't getting any better, and they miss Violet really really badly. Having Crazy-Hydra for an entire season will help and it's possible (but in my view, unlikely) for one of their depth players to step it up but you are right that KT has no depth - Flash can go on winning 75% of his games but I think KT is going to struggle to reach ace matches next season.
CJ - CJ is hax indeed. Their roster drops off after their first 5 players but that's inevitable when your first 5 players are performing that well... but they're getting Effort back anyways. Eeesh.
SKT - I am guessing Bisu will drop off a little and everyone else will combine to win a few fewer games as the rest of the teams improve, but I would be quite surprised if they were not one of the top 3 teams next season.
wow uh so much for brief, heh
|
On July 19 2011 03:20 Simplistik wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 13:44 VGhost wrote:
KT Rolster has the best damn coach in the business. Just out of curiosity, what's the basis for that claim?
KT Rolster has the best damn coach in the business. I know he has Flash on his bench whenever necessary, but KT has no depth whatsoever.* Sure, double WL helped the team out a lot (and Stats really stepped up to the plate there), but to make 32 wins out of basically Flash is a phenomenal job.
that, I'd imagine
|
On July 18 2011 18:08 nayumi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 16:50 mustaju wrote:On July 18 2011 16:37 Doraemon wrote:On July 18 2011 16:15 mustaju wrote:This year sucked, by and large. I'm afraid next year won't be better.  i actually quite enjoyed this year, BO7 format certainly helped. WL killed off ace unfortunately =[ and when you say sucked, is it mainly due to the protoss bonwja? Basically almost everything past R2 was godawful, with hints of what was to come in rounds 1&2. Suits me right hoping for an entire year for a resurgence of Calm, with slight ups and then catastrophic downs. It wasn't as bad as being a JangBi fan must have been, but having your favorite team collapse (again) after a brief period of stability, it becoming clearer and clearer that your favorite 2 players (Calm and Kal) will likely never come fully out of their slump, and your least favorite team and player finishing multiple rounds undefeated was pretty horrendous. And now Proleague will likely morph into even more of a 2 team (or even one team) competition. Ugh. But I guess some fans WOULD like that. -.- It's not T1's fault that other teams are mediocre ... sry :/
Sigh...do you really have to add more fuel to the fire? Saying the other teams are mediocre is insulting and not necessary. Just be happy that your team is doing well and pray that BIsu will advance far in the MSL.
|
I think the SK coaches seem to be the best at getting the match ups right and preparing the players well with particular strategies.
|
Great read. Really hoping Oz can make it next year and for Jangbi, Bisu, and Snow to become/remain awesome.
|
Bisu is like a god
as long as he is alive SKT will win every single proleague left at sc:bw
|
The more I think about it the more I disagree about KT coaches saving the team. I feel they have A LOT of potential in the team.. That is something I base on watching them play rather than looking at stats. They buy players left and right: CH, Action, ForGG a couple of seasons back. These players have not developped in KT, they have become worse imo. That is not good coaching.
|
I think CJ coach is the best.
|
On July 19 2011 21:05 Elroi wrote:
The more I think about it the more I disagree about KT coaches saving the team. I feel they have A LOT of potential in the team.. That is something I base on watching them play rather than looking at stats. They buy players left and right: CH, Action, ForGG a couple of seasons back. These players have not developped in KT, they have become worse imo. That is not good coaching.
None of these players played particularly worse after coming to KT. Action was always a mediocre sub-50% win zerg on estro, and ForGG was slumping when Oz traded him away and KT atleast brought him back to relative mediocrity and a fairly consistent member of starleague group stages. Luxury left Hite and went on to win an MSL.
I don't think KT specifically makes players they buy better, but I never got this notion of "Oh my god this guy joined KT and started playing horribly!"
I am critical of KT's coaching staff because they are arguably the worst staff in the league at getting favorable matchups. Lots of PvZs and ZvTs makes our mediocre lineup look worse than it is -- that's one of the major differences between KT zergs and SKT zergs is that SKT does a phenomenal job of getting their zergs to avoid ZvTs, but KT seems to seek it out with Action and such.
|
I tend to agree with TTT. It might just be "persecuted fan delusions", but it feels like KT almost always gets the short end of the stick when it comes to matchups and has for quite some time. Thankfully, one notable exception was the Shinhan finals against SKT last year.
Woongjin-KT spoilers.
+ Show Spoiler +They allowed Light to play TvZ in every single match!
Their race specific coaches seem to be pretty good, from my limited insight into it. H.O.T. has had significant success with the protoss lineup overall (yes, he's the protoss coach). And since Hery has become a coach shortly before Flash's godmode kicked in, he's been side-by-side with Flash helping him pick strategies for all the finals he was in, plus Barracks has come along recently.
|
Though I dislike protoss, respect to Bisu, man. Doing meh in the individual leagues, but what a team workhorse.
|
On July 19 2011 03:38 Crunchums wrote:
i feel compelled to briefly state my thoughts here -
ACE - Unless they pick up a couple of stronger players they are going to do worse next season.
MBC - Light leaving was a huge blow that they will not recover from any time soon. Currently this team is not a playoff threat even when they are firing on all cylinders. I would be surprised if they are not one of the 3 worst teams next season.
FOX - The team with the highest variance. They could make the playoffs or be the second worse team next season and neither outcome would surprise me. Playoffs are as easy as Baby finding his mojo again and Wooki living up to the promise he has shown without Roro/Mind/Shine/Midas dropping off too much, and if they get there they have the depth and strength to put up a fight, but who knows whether any of those things will happen.
Oz - Jaedong is still Jaedong and Killer has developed into a reliable #2. The big questions here are what is going on with Hiya (my own guess is that his current performance is reflective of his actual skill but then why is he consistently so successful in WL??) and can they find a player outside of those 3 better than Perfectman. Without some serious improvement in their non-Jaedong non-Killer players this is a team constructed to scrape to make it to the ace match and then hope Jaedong can pull it out - that is not a recipe for success in the playoffs. My guess is they finish in a similar position next season.
STX - With the emergence of Bogus, STX has all the pieces to succeed. Bogus/Kal/Calm/Shuttle is a strong core and STX has always had the strongest roleplayers. The obvious question mark is whether Kal and Calm can stop performing so erratically - they're basically the Protoss and Zerg version of fantasy except their team can't keep chugging along when they trip up - but as strong as STX would be if that happens I would still question their ability to hang with SKT and CJ. Hang in their STX fans, next season STX will probably win a playoff match before their inevitable, disappointing collapse.
And to answer your question, no, by.hero will never be legitimately good.
KHAN - Things look promising for KHAN - they've got a slew of promising newer players (Brave, Turn, Reality, Grape...), Stork, and Jangbi is back with a vengeance. great isn't going to cut it so they'll need some of those newer players to realize their potential. If none of that potential gets realized they might struggle to make the playoffs, if some of it gets realized they should make the playoffs easily but be unable to compete with the top 2-3 teams, if a lot of it gets realized they are a contender for the title.
Stars - I completely agree that losing Crazy-Hydra hurt them a lot and that free looks washed up. Stars would benefit a lot from the emergence of a player outside of Zero/Soulkey/Light/Really as that depth would give them a huge advantage against every team outside of CJ, but if that doesn't happen they'll probably still be at least the third best team after CJ and SKT.
KT - No way they finished this high next season. I would be surprised if Stats is able to maintain that level of performance but even if he drops off he'll still be KT's #2, Action isn't getting any better, and they miss Violet really really badly. Having Crazy-Hydra for an entire season will help and it's possible (but in my view, unlikely) for one of their depth players to step it up but you are right that KT has no depth - Flash can go on winning 75% of his games but I think KT is going to struggle to reach ace matches next season.
CJ - CJ is hax indeed. Their roster drops off after their first 5 players but that's inevitable when your first 5 players are performing that well... but they're getting Effort back anyways. Eeesh.
SKT - I am guessing Bisu will drop off a little and everyone else will combine to win a few fewer games as the rest of the teams improve, but I would be quite surprised if they were not one of the top 3 teams next season.
wow uh so much for brief, heh
Agree for the most part. Rankings for next year IMO
1. CJ Entus
2. SK T1
3. Woongjin Stars
4. KT Rolster
5. STX Soul
6. Samsung KHAN
7. WeMade FOX
8. Hwaesung OZ
9. MBC Game HERO
10. Airforce ACE
|
On July 20 2011 05:32 djbhINDI wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2011 03:38 Crunchums wrote:
i feel compelled to briefly state my thoughts here -
ACE - Unless they pick up a couple of stronger players they are going to do worse next season.
MBC - Light leaving was a huge blow that they will not recover from any time soon. Currently this team is not a playoff threat even when they are firing on all cylinders. I would be surprised if they are not one of the 3 worst teams next season.
FOX - The team with the highest variance. They could make the playoffs or be the second worse team next season and neither outcome would surprise me. Playoffs are as easy as Baby finding his mojo again and Wooki living up to the promise he has shown without Roro/Mind/Shine/Midas dropping off too much, and if they get there they have the depth and strength to put up a fight, but who knows whether any of those things will happen.
Oz - Jaedong is still Jaedong and Killer has developed into a reliable #2. The big questions here are what is going on with Hiya (my own guess is that his current performance is reflective of his actual skill but then why is he consistently so successful in WL??) and can they find a player outside of those 3 better than Perfectman. Without some serious improvement in their non-Jaedong non-Killer players this is a team constructed to scrape to make it to the ace match and then hope Jaedong can pull it out - that is not a recipe for success in the playoffs. My guess is they finish in a similar position next season.
STX - With the emergence of Bogus, STX has all the pieces to succeed. Bogus/Kal/Calm/Shuttle is a strong core and STX has always had the strongest roleplayers. The obvious question mark is whether Kal and Calm can stop performing so erratically - they're basically the Protoss and Zerg version of fantasy except their team can't keep chugging along when they trip up - but as strong as STX would be if that happens I would still question their ability to hang with SKT and CJ. Hang in their STX fans, next season STX will probably win a playoff match before their inevitable, disappointing collapse.
And to answer your question, no, by.hero will never be legitimately good.
KHAN - Things look promising for KHAN - they've got a slew of promising newer players (Brave, Turn, Reality, Grape...), Stork, and Jangbi is back with a vengeance. great isn't going to cut it so they'll need some of those newer players to realize their potential. If none of that potential gets realized they might struggle to make the playoffs, if some of it gets realized they should make the playoffs easily but be unable to compete with the top 2-3 teams, if a lot of it gets realized they are a contender for the title.
Stars - I completely agree that losing Crazy-Hydra hurt them a lot and that free looks washed up. Stars would benefit a lot from the emergence of a player outside of Zero/Soulkey/Light/Really as that depth would give them a huge advantage against every team outside of CJ, but if that doesn't happen they'll probably still be at least the third best team after CJ and SKT.
KT - No way they finished this high next season. I would be surprised if Stats is able to maintain that level of performance but even if he drops off he'll still be KT's #2, Action isn't getting any better, and they miss Violet really really badly. Having Crazy-Hydra for an entire season will help and it's possible (but in my view, unlikely) for one of their depth players to step it up but you are right that KT has no depth - Flash can go on winning 75% of his games but I think KT is going to struggle to reach ace matches next season.
CJ - CJ is hax indeed. Their roster drops off after their first 5 players but that's inevitable when your first 5 players are performing that well... but they're getting Effort back anyways. Eeesh.
SKT - I am guessing Bisu will drop off a little and everyone else will combine to win a few fewer games as the rest of the teams improve, but I would be quite surprised if they were not one of the top 3 teams next season.
wow uh so much for brief, heh Agree for the most part. Rankings for next year IMO 1. CJ Entus 2. SK T1 3. Woongjin Stars 4. KT Rolster 5. STX Soul 6. Samsung KHAN 7. WeMade FOX 8. Hwaesung OZ 9. MBC Game HERO 10. Airforce ACE
However what I wanna see:
1. ACE.
2 -> 9,
Your list, just moved down respective ranks.
But yeah I wouldn't be surprised if that's what happened. But you never know, JDOZ has the potential to pull on top of FOX.
|
United States10141 Posts
On July 18 2011 14:12 b0lt wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2011 13:44 VGhost wrote:Regular Season Finish: 3rd (32-22); WL 1st (16-2) Playoffs: ??? (now 1-1 (3-4, 4-2) vs WJN); WL 2nd (L 1-4 vs SKT) Ace:  FlashKT Rolster has the best damn coach in the business. I know he has Flash on his bench whenever necessary, but KT has no depth whatsoever.* Sure, double WL helped the team out a lot (and  Stats really stepped up to the plate there), but to make 32 wins out of basically Flash is a phenomenal job. Touted Zerg prospect  Action has gotten better, but is still mediocre (which is at least better than KT's had since Lux removed himself). Crazy-Hydra will almost certainly help the cause - he briefly had Woongjin's best Zerg record, and KT imported his race coach too - but that side hasn't shown up for sure yet in the KT house, where he's still playing second fiddle to Action. On a sobering note, KT's not had good luck with players this year. Flash's wrist will certainly sideline him at some indefinite point. Violet has leukemia. fOrGG retired. YellOw has retired (not that he added much to the KT bench, unfortunately). Best of luck to them all. Next year? The fact that they'll almost certainly dominate that Winners League season (again) gives them a good shot regardless, but, if Action continues to improve, Crazy-Hydra acclimates, Flash gets healthy, and Stats plays well, KT shouldn't have to depend on Winners League to take a top playoff spot. * In one sense not exactly true: most of KT's bench players are mediocre, not bad, unlike, say, OZ. But they're still not good, either. You seem to have forgotten something. + Show Spoiler +
LMAO was about to say, why no mention of an on fire hoejja? not like a flash or bisu on fire, but on fire for his level. hoejja has really stepped things up here.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/eUSC5.png)
![[image loading]](http://i255.photobucket.com/albums/hh125/scaramangaa/Hoejja.jpg)
