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why does currency lose value?

Blogs > ahrara_
Post a Reply
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ahrara_
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
Afghanistan1715 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-09-23 05:13:00
September 22 2008 22:08 GMT
#1
So apparently the dollar sunk again today. As usual, I'm stumped and confused about why. I hate monetary theory. Can anybody explain in plain english terms what causes currency to lose value? That is, not only "what are the factors leading to the declining dollar", but "why does currency lose value if the government isn't printing more? what does it REALLY mean when currency loses value?"

i got linked on pony express and i just wanted to make the disclaimer:

just about every post in here is bunk with like 2 exceptions. don't believe everything you see on the internet.

/ungrateful bitch

*
in Afghanistan we have 20% literacy rate
SolaR-
Profile Blog Joined February 2004
United States2686 Posts
September 22 2008 22:10 GMT
#2
cuz the government prints more of it.
CaucasianAsian
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
Korea (South)11602 Posts
September 22 2008 22:11 GMT
#3
more money in circulation lower value
less money in circulation higher value
Calendar@ Fish Server: `iOps]..Stark
EmeraldSparks
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
United States1451 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-09-22 22:12:50
September 22 2008 22:12 GMT
#4
The dollar buys American stuff at American prices.

If the perceived value of American stuff seems to go down, then people will want dollars less, meaning the demand for dollars goes down, which means a foreign currency will buy more dollars or conversely a dollar will be less foreign currency.

I think. I could be lying.
But why?
CaucasianAsian
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
Korea (South)11602 Posts
September 22 2008 22:14 GMT
#5
also, there is many many many factors that cause money to rise and lower compared to the rest of the world. It is very complicated, as it involved many world economists predicting the future about how that countries economy will do the next day etc... someone who is more experienced in economics will be able to help you. It's just a hole bunch of economists predicting the future and that is what combines to create the USD price compared to the Euro and pound etc..
Calendar@ Fish Server: `iOps]..Stark
Ra.Xor.2
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States1784 Posts
September 22 2008 22:18 GMT
#6
On September 23 2008 07:10 CultureMisfits wrote:
cuz the government prints more of it.


This is the main reason. During the 1930s, Germany printed a shitload of money to cover econ troubles and sank into a huge depression. Hitler ended up taking over because of that . Also, the Confederate states during the civil war suffered a over 10000% inflation because they just kept printing bills which had no value.

What I don't understand is, since gold or other "hard currency" isin't used to back money anymore, why does it still have value?
#1 Flash Fan
EmeraldSparks
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
United States1451 Posts
September 22 2008 22:23 GMT
#7
So suppose Russia goes to hell. Maybe Zombie Stalin rises from the dead and leads the risen WWII Red Army and levels Moscow, where he resurrects Lenin and ushers a reign of bloody terror across the Motherland.

Suddenly all the rubles you thought you could buy things with you can't really buy things with. You try to exchange them, but nobody wants them, so you end up trading ten million rubles for a shiny penny to somebody who thinks he can sneak into Russia and buy the nuclear missiles.
But why?
QuanticHawk
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
United States32160 Posts
September 22 2008 22:23 GMT
#8
On September 23 2008 07:18 Ra.Xor.2 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 23 2008 07:10 CultureMisfits wrote:
cuz the government prints more of it.


This is the main reason. During the 1930s, Germany printed a shitload of money to cover econ troubles and sank into a huge depression. Hitler ended up taking over because of that . Also, the Confederate states during the civil war suffered a over 10000% inflation because they just kept printing bills which had no value.

What I don't understand is, since gold or other "hard currency" isin't used to back money anymore, why does it still have value?


the strength of the economy and the ability of the nation to pay back the loans they have
PROFESSIONAL GAMER - SEND ME OFFERS TO JOIN YOUR TEAM - USA USA USA
theonemephisto
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States409 Posts
September 22 2008 22:23 GMT
#9
Domestically, it's all about supply/demand. Ignoring the foreign exchange market, the ratio of amount of money to amount of services/products produced gives you the value of money. When the fed prints more money or creates more money through other practices (i.e., encouraging lending increases the multiplier on existing money), the value changes.

The previous statements affect the foreign market, but it adds a new element, the desire for American goods/services/investments. If you want anything sold in America or if you want to invest in American companies, you're going to need American dollars. It's another supply/demand question, how many Americans are selling dollars for foreign currency to buy foreign goods/invest in foreign markets and how many foreigners are buying dollars to buy American goods/invest in American markets.
Klockan3
Profile Blog Joined July 2007
Sweden2866 Posts
September 22 2008 22:29 GMT
#10
Currency value goes down since everyone raises the prises to earn more money, and with that more money they raise their wages. When everyone got raised wages and everything costs more, then we call that inflation.

Now different countries have different inflation levels, and they make sure that no matter what happens in a sole monetary system everyone else will still keep their correct buying power. For example lets say that the USA raised their wages and prices by 100%, then for it to be fair the dollar would have to fall down to 50% of its old value or we would have an imbalance in currency levels.

Anyway, the dollar getting weaker just means that you have a higher relative inflation than the currencies you are comparing it too.

Also if you read some economics you would realize that inflation is a very important part of every economy, since it forces people to invest or see their fortune dwindle with time. Invested money contributes to the economy while people having money tucked away under their beds is what causes depressions.
LonelyMargarita
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
1845 Posts
September 22 2008 22:36 GMT
#11
Since it is all relative to other currencies, you can explain it in exchange rates:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange_rates#Fluctuations_in_exchange_rates

The rest of the article also mentions things like pegging that will affect it.
I <3 서지훈
Jibba
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States22883 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-09-22 22:47:36
September 22 2008 22:45 GMT
#12
On September 23 2008 07:10 CultureMisfits wrote:
cuz the government prints more of it.

This is a really poor explanation and has nothing to do with current inflation.

I'm about to go eat and a real economist should really be replying (but not a Ron Paul-ist), but it is related to money supply and velocity, and because of America's perceived bond backing ability and pretty much every other factor you can think of.

If Bush puts a trillion dollars into Wall Street like he's hoping to do, it gets relayed to tax payers which in turn is going to hurt companies forcing them to raise prices. Confidence has a lot to do with it.

Enough with the gold standard bullshit.
ModeratorNow I'm distant, dark in this anthrobeat
theonemephisto
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States409 Posts
September 22 2008 22:46 GMT
#13
On September 23 2008 07:29 Klockan3 wrote:
Currency value goes down since everyone raises the prises to earn more money, and with that more money they raise their wages. When everyone got raised wages and everything costs more, then we call that inflation.

That's a lie. If the supply of money and the total output of the economy stays the same, then there will be no inflation. If the supply of money and the total output of the economy grow at the same rate, then again, there will be no inflation.

Inflation isn't inherent. It is largely (almost all) dependent on the relation of money to size of economy. Everyone can't simply "raise prices to earn more money", as there's something called competition to make that impossible. It only works when people realize that there's more money than there used to be, and therefore, that each dollar is worth a smaller proportion of the total output than it used to be, that's when prices rise.

Inflation only seems to be inevitable in the most current nations because there's constant political pressure for it (inflation puts the economy into overdrive until people realize what happens, that's when the economy corrects itself and slows down). Also, there's the psychological thing about people getting wage raises every year.
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
September 22 2008 22:48 GMT
#14
With the lack of any standard for currency, we now rely purely on fiat currency, which essentially is a giant IOU. The reason the US dollar is still "strong" (read, 21 times weaker than before) is because it is believed that the US is a very stable and secure nation, and thus they will eventually pay back any loans. If the US were to suffer riots or collapse, the US dollar will undoubtedly collapse. However, our strong military in this sense is good to keep the value of our currency up.

With the recent mass printing of money, the US has a fixed value. Each dollar, as a result, becomes worth less as it divides up the value. While it does technically pay off the debt (as printing money is technically giving x amount of money) it will result in a loss in confidence and heavy damage taken by lenders as they "lose" money.
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
tec27
Profile Blog Joined June 2004
United States3724 Posts
September 22 2008 23:03 GMT
#15
On September 23 2008 07:46 theonemephisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 23 2008 07:29 Klockan3 wrote:
Currency value goes down since everyone raises the prises to earn more money, and with that more money they raise their wages. When everyone got raised wages and everything costs more, then we call that inflation.

That's a lie. If the supply of money and the total output of the economy stays the same, then there will be no inflation. If the supply of money and the total output of the economy grow at the same rate, then again, there will be no inflation.

Inflation isn't inherent. It is largely (almost all) dependent on the relation of money to size of economy. Everyone can't simply "raise prices to earn more money", as there's something called competition to make that impossible. It only works when people realize that there's more money than there used to be, and therefore, that each dollar is worth a smaller proportion of the total output than it used to be, that's when prices rise.

Inflation only seems to be inevitable in the most current nations because there's constant political pressure for it (inflation puts the economy into overdrive until people realize what happens, that's when the economy corrects itself and slows down). Also, there's the psychological thing about people getting wage raises every year.

Spot on. Klockan's ideas don't work because he assumes that raised prices directly implies raised wages, and somewhere in the middle money magically appears, which isn't the case.

Inflation is largely driven by governmental pressure, especially in times of war. Finding a war where the government hasn't inflated the money supply in order to fund its military would be an incredibly hard thing to do.
Can you jam with the console cowboys in cyberspace?
freelander
Profile Blog Joined December 2004
Hungary4707 Posts
September 22 2008 23:07 GMT
#16
On September 23 2008 07:18 Ra.Xor.2 wrote:
What I don't understand is, since gold or other "hard currency" isin't used to back money anymore, why does it still have value?


only the USD isn't covered by "hard currency" I think, but I am not sure.
And all is illuminated.
ahrara_
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
Afghanistan1715 Posts
September 22 2008 23:17 GMT
#17
On September 23 2008 07:23 theonemephisto wrote:
Domestically, it's all about supply/demand. Ignoring the foreign exchange market, the ratio of amount of money to amount of services/products produced gives you the value of money. When the fed prints more money or creates more money through other practices (i.e., encouraging lending increases the multiplier on existing money), the value changes.

The previous statements affect the foreign market, but it adds a new element, the desire for American goods/services/investments. If you want anything sold in America or if you want to invest in American companies, you're going to need American dollars. It's another supply/demand question, how many Americans are selling dollars for foreign currency to buy foreign goods/invest in foreign markets and how many foreigners are buying dollars to buy American goods/invest in American markets.

So are you saying that the 700 bill bailout and the money market loans have eased up credit, and that's why the dollar is going down? This seems like the most credible explanation so far. So let me get this right. If demand for american goods go up, the demand for american dollars goes up, increasing its value. If aggregate demand for am. products falls, demand for american dollars goes down, hurting its value. So the reason the dollar is going down is because people are running away from american investments (demand goes down)? Shouldn't the opposite be happening after the bailout?

Still hella confused.

On September 23 2008 07:45 Jibba wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 23 2008 07:10 CultureMisfits wrote:
cuz the government prints more of it.

This is a really poor explanation and has nothing to do with current inflation.

I'm about to go eat and a real economist should really be replying (but not a Ron Paul-ist), but it is related to money supply and velocity, and because of America's perceived bond backing ability and pretty much every other factor you can think of.

If Bush puts a trillion dollars into Wall Street like he's hoping to do, it gets relayed to tax payers which in turn is going to hurt companies forcing them to raise prices. Confidence has a lot to do with it.

Enough with the gold standard bullshit.

i didn't want to seem like an ungrateful prick by telling the "print money" / "it's because of inflation durr" folks to shutup and die, so thanks for being my proxy jibba.
in Afghanistan we have 20% literacy rate
ahrara_
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
Afghanistan1715 Posts
September 22 2008 23:18 GMT
#18
So I guess what I'm looking for is:

What causes demand for american products to go down?

What causes demand to go up?

What causes increases in the money supply (besides printing money ffs)?

What causes decreases in the money supply?

How has the wall street crisis affected currency values, and how?

Why has the announced bailout reduced dollar value?
in Afghanistan we have 20% literacy rate
Mastermind
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Canada7096 Posts
September 22 2008 23:30 GMT
#19
It is simple supply and demand. If people dont want american dollars, the value decreases, if people want american dollars the value increases. That handles the demand side of things. The supply side is a little more complicated but essentially it has to do with the central bank(in the US's case they call it the Federal reserve) increases the amount of cash available to the market or decreases it. They can do this by holding cash in the basement of the reserve. If you really want to understand it better take a course on monetary theory or just an introductory macroeconomics course would be enough.
Balzy
Profile Joined August 2008
United States113 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-09-23 01:03:31
September 23 2008 01:00 GMT
#20
To all the above:

Because
[image loading]
Alan Greenspan wills it so.

Goodnight.

In short, I pissed in Gods eye... and he blinked. - Dr. Thaddeus Venture
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