How to succeed at FPL: Calculating a Player's Cost Efficiency
If you read this through, I think the FPL understanding you will gain from this makes a lot of sense.
Back when Proleague had 7 weeks in 1 round, a top 100 Team in FPL must gain 3 points for every 1 cost it took. So if soO cost 7 points, on average, he had to acquire 21 points. This benchmark is critical in creating an effective FPL team.
Now that Proleague has 6 weeks in 1 round, each player must get 2.57 points for every 1 cost it took.+ Show Spoiler +
So if SoO costs 7 points, he has to acquire 18 points. But wait, there’s more! Every time a team wins, the player gains 1 point.
3*(6/7) = 2.57
Based on approximations, a team will win:
SK Telecom T1: 5 times out of 6
Jin Air: 4 times out of 6
CJ Entus: 3.5 times out of 6
KT Rolster: 3.5 times out of 6
Samsung Galaxy: 2.5 times out of 6
Afreeca Freecs: 2 times out of 6
MVP: 1 time out of 6
And since every time a team wins, the player gains 1 point, then we can subtract that number from a player’s expected performance so the player is purely based on their performance. So if SoO needs 18 points, and SKT1 is expected to win 5 times, then SoO by himself needs 13 points. 13 points is 4.33 wins, so for SoO to be cost effective, he must win 4.33 times.
Now we can do this for every single player in FPL, which is what I did.
Trends we can see, etc
- Players that cost too much are not worth it. If you look at players that cost 8 and up, they must win more than 6 times, which is impossible, except for ace matches.
- Teams are very efficient at getting points. I didn't bother putting the math onto here, but teams in general are safe to bet on. It's okay to splurge on SKT1!
- It's important to note how often a player is going to be fielded. If a player is on KT Rolster, they are likely to be fielded almost every game. CJ Entus and Jin Air this time around only have 6 players, so a player on their team is very likely to play as well.
If you want to immerse yourself in more FPL theory or analyze previous years' statistics, here you go: http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/490521-a-fpl-guide-and-statsistics
I think this formula deserves more time than I'm putting into this, but meh. Go win!
Tl;dr: look at bold numbers in the spreadsheet. don't buy players that cost 8+ (7 is also risky)