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Replay #98399000
Hey TL, draft analysis #2 featuring our very own Team Liquid! No standins and up against the European mixture of Absolute Legends Academy. I’m going to try and focus a little more on the laning aspect of the draft this time and hopefully it’ll turn out better than my first attempt (which I don’t think was that bad for my first try, see it here). As before, I haven’t watched this game at all yet, so I don’t know what heroes will be picked or who wins or anything. The first ban and pick will go to linkoo and AL.Academy, playing as the Radiant, leaving TC and the rest of Team Liquid with the second and third picks and second ban, playing as the Dire. Last note, I’ll be referring to Absolute Legends Academy as “AL,” but don’t confuse them with the other Absolute Legends squad. Let’s jump into it!
1st Ban Phase
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1st AL ban: Batrider. AL gets first, meaning they won’t be banning any heroes they want as first pick. Thus they’ll be banning out heroes they don’t want TL to get with their second and third picks. Batrider is an extremely common first phase pick/ban for his maneuverability, lane versatility, and that annoying lasso that goes through BKB.
1st TL ban: Undying. In contrast to AL, TL will not get first pick, so they’ll ban out heroes they absolutely do not want AL to get, even if they get the two after. Undying is extremely powerful in the metagame, with his tombstone slow being able to control teamfights; his decay making supports extremely fragile; and his general tankability. He can easily turn any gank around with his decay and tombstone, making him a pain in the ass to go up against. He also fits great into any offensive trilane you can think of.
2nd AL ban: Nyx Assassin. Nyx is another top ban/pick recently, due to his variety of skills and usefulness. He can scout, set up ganks, stun, burn mana, and even dodge incoming targeted spells or widespread spells like ravage, stunning the caster in the process. He’s also not very item dependent, meaning the rest of his team is free to get the farm while he can still have a huge impact on the game.
2nd TL ban: Phantom Lancer. Oh damn, I wasn’t expecting this. TL went 23 seconds into their reserve time making this choice, and I was expecting it to be either magnus, darkseer, or wisp. This could be a respect ban towards chromium from AL.Academy, or it could simply be TL struggling against the Phantom Lancer play right now. PL excels at split pushing and farming as well as teamfight chaos and a slow, so perhaps TL is planning to have a farm strategy of their own and don’t want to compete with a PL? We’ll see as the rest of the draft develops.
1st TL ban: Undying. In contrast to AL, TL will not get first pick, so they’ll ban out heroes they absolutely do not want AL to get, even if they get the two after. Undying is extremely powerful in the metagame, with his tombstone slow being able to control teamfights; his decay making supports extremely fragile; and his general tankability. He can easily turn any gank around with his decay and tombstone, making him a pain in the ass to go up against. He also fits great into any offensive trilane you can think of.
2nd AL ban: Nyx Assassin. Nyx is another top ban/pick recently, due to his variety of skills and usefulness. He can scout, set up ganks, stun, burn mana, and even dodge incoming targeted spells or widespread spells like ravage, stunning the caster in the process. He’s also not very item dependent, meaning the rest of his team is free to get the farm while he can still have a huge impact on the game.
2nd TL ban: Phantom Lancer. Oh damn, I wasn’t expecting this. TL went 23 seconds into their reserve time making this choice, and I was expecting it to be either magnus, darkseer, or wisp. This could be a respect ban towards chromium from AL.Academy, or it could simply be TL struggling against the Phantom Lancer play right now. PL excels at split pushing and farming as well as teamfight chaos and a slow, so perhaps TL is planning to have a farm strategy of their own and don’t want to compete with a PL? We’ll see as the rest of the draft develops.
Alright so a lot of powerful heroes made it through the first ban phase, namely the Darkseer, Wisp, and Magnus. I’m expecting to see all 3 of these heroes get picked up in the first pick stage to be honest. And then we’ll recap what it looks like the team’s strategies will be. Other popular heroes to look out for will be KotL, Shadow Demon, Lone Druid, Bounty Hunter, and Rubick.
1st Pick Phase
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1st AL pick: Darkseer. There it is, I would be shocked at any team these days passing up a darkseer. His offlane presence and teamfight capabilities are just so strong right now. He can farm a quick mek in the offlane, something that very few other heroes are capable of doing, while even harassing a melee carry trying to farm. If the other team decides to shut him down with a trilane, you can be sure that your trilane on the bottom will be a success. And darkseer can even go into the jungle if need be, letting him get those valuable levels even when getting shut down against a trilane.
1st and 2nd TL picks: KotL and Magnus. Not surprised by these picks either. Kotl’s push and anti-push are just so strong, as well as being able to replenish his team’s mana. He’s also a viable offlane or trilane supporter. Magnus also has lane freedom, being able to play offlane or middle. His teamfight potential is huge with Reverse Polarity, and he can help push or counter push with his powerful Shockwave.
2nd and 3rd AL picks: Wow, going 47 seconds into their reserve time, AL choose first Windrunner and then Disruptor. The windrunner pick says flexibility to me, she can go offlane, allowing the darkseer to lane mid against a possible midlane magnus, or she can middle herself and let the darkseer offlane as I talked about before. Disruptor on the other hand seems like a direct counter to the Kotl and magnus picks, for his glimpse and kinetic field. Magnus is a hero that depends heavily on positioning, thus the kinetic field and glimpse can both screw with that extremely effectively. Glimpse also counters kotl’s recall ability. A hero is recalled in to a push or teamfight? Glimpse him out! Same mentality behind disruptor being a counter to wisp. Very interesting picks, we’ll have to see how Team Liquid respond.
3rd TL pick: Naix. Naix is the increasingly popular 1 position pick. He does massive damage, has a build in slow and magic invulnerability, and is great at farming and synergizing with items. Also, he somewhat counters the glimpse of disruptor, being that if Kotl recalls in naix, naix can instantly rage, and by the time it wears off he will be un-glimpse-able (at least back to wherever he was before he came in). I’ll also point out that if magnus gets a blink dagger, we can definitely expect Naix bombs with reverse polarities as a kicker. Great pick by TL in my opinion.
1st and 2nd TL picks: KotL and Magnus. Not surprised by these picks either. Kotl’s push and anti-push are just so strong, as well as being able to replenish his team’s mana. He’s also a viable offlane or trilane supporter. Magnus also has lane freedom, being able to play offlane or middle. His teamfight potential is huge with Reverse Polarity, and he can help push or counter push with his powerful Shockwave.
2nd and 3rd AL picks: Wow, going 47 seconds into their reserve time, AL choose first Windrunner and then Disruptor. The windrunner pick says flexibility to me, she can go offlane, allowing the darkseer to lane mid against a possible midlane magnus, or she can middle herself and let the darkseer offlane as I talked about before. Disruptor on the other hand seems like a direct counter to the Kotl and magnus picks, for his glimpse and kinetic field. Magnus is a hero that depends heavily on positioning, thus the kinetic field and glimpse can both screw with that extremely effectively. Glimpse also counters kotl’s recall ability. A hero is recalled in to a push or teamfight? Glimpse him out! Same mentality behind disruptor being a counter to wisp. Very interesting picks, we’ll have to see how Team Liquid respond.
3rd TL pick: Naix. Naix is the increasingly popular 1 position pick. He does massive damage, has a build in slow and magic invulnerability, and is great at farming and synergizing with items. Also, he somewhat counters the glimpse of disruptor, being that if Kotl recalls in naix, naix can instantly rage, and by the time it wears off he will be un-glimpse-able (at least back to wherever he was before he came in). I’ll also point out that if magnus gets a blink dagger, we can definitely expect Naix bombs with reverse polarities as a kicker. Great pick by TL in my opinion.
So the next ban phase is now beginning, let’s see where we’re at. Notable heroes still in the pool are Wisp, Bounty Hunter, Shadow Demon, and Lone Druid.
Team Liquid’s (Dire) lanes will probably look something like a Naix safe lane, solo or supported, magnus either still go either mid or offlane, and kotl will either support top or be a part of an aggressive trilane in the long lane. They have their 1 position, 3 position, and 5 position, meaning they need a 2 and a 4. We’ll look for strong 2s being banned out by AL.
Absolute Legends Academy are still very flexible right now. As I said before, Darkseer and windrunner will take long lane and mid, and are interchangeable. Windrunner could even play as a 4 position and support bottom as well. And then disruptor will support whatever 1 position decides to go bottom, in addition to another support. Their picks are still very open, and TL might have a hard time banning heroes, because at this point there is still a large amount of options open for AL.
2nd Ban Phase
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3rd AL ban: Enigma. Enigma+Magnus ultimate combination with a kotl illuminate coming through is something no team really wants to face. In addition, Enigma offers strong pushing to the already strong push of Kotl. Engima can also be thrown in the jungle for his farm, or thrown offlane to deny.
3rd TL ban: Lone Druid. Banning this 1 position hero from AL means the lockdown from entangle and the split push capabilities won’t be an issue.
4th AL ban: Chen. Looks like AL want to ban out jungle options from Team Liquid. Chen adds pushing, as well as that global heal.
4th TL ban: Luna. Banning another 1 position pick from AL, Luna offers strong right click damage and a strong nuke, as well as being a powerful lategame carry. TL banning so many carries makes me think that they aren’t going to be running a push strategy, as generally you don’t mind the other team having carries when you’re pushing early because they’re ineffective at stopping pushes. If you think about it, the strategy TL seems to be saying they’re not doing is the one that AL seems to be banning in order to prevent.
5th AL ban: Puck. AL chooses to ban out that position 2 Puck, a solo mid hero that can control fights with his silence and dream coil, as well as being very hard to pin down. Puck also has slight push and counter push abilities with his two nukes, being able to clear creep waves quickly.
5th TL ban: Faceless Void. Yet another hard carry ban, it seems like TL are trying to narrow down AL’s choices when it comes to position 1 heroes. The heroes that AL has left to choose from, off the top of my head, are Morphling (recently being brought back by Dignitas) and Antimage. Maybe a spectre? We’ll see what AL choose to do in the next pick phase!
3rd TL ban: Lone Druid. Banning this 1 position hero from AL means the lockdown from entangle and the split push capabilities won’t be an issue.
4th AL ban: Chen. Looks like AL want to ban out jungle options from Team Liquid. Chen adds pushing, as well as that global heal.
4th TL ban: Luna. Banning another 1 position pick from AL, Luna offers strong right click damage and a strong nuke, as well as being a powerful lategame carry. TL banning so many carries makes me think that they aren’t going to be running a push strategy, as generally you don’t mind the other team having carries when you’re pushing early because they’re ineffective at stopping pushes. If you think about it, the strategy TL seems to be saying they’re not doing is the one that AL seems to be banning in order to prevent.
5th AL ban: Puck. AL chooses to ban out that position 2 Puck, a solo mid hero that can control fights with his silence and dream coil, as well as being very hard to pin down. Puck also has slight push and counter push abilities with his two nukes, being able to clear creep waves quickly.
5th TL ban: Faceless Void. Yet another hard carry ban, it seems like TL are trying to narrow down AL’s choices when it comes to position 1 heroes. The heroes that AL has left to choose from, off the top of my head, are Morphling (recently being brought back by Dignitas) and Antimage. Maybe a spectre? We’ll see what AL choose to do in the next pick phase!
2nd Pick Phase
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4th AL pick: Rubick. There’s that last support, so it looks like Disruptor and Rubick will be supporting whoever AL decides to pick for their hard carry. Just a blurb: it’s better for AL to pick their carry second here, as opposed to this first pick, because it offers TL one less pick to counter that hero, and they get to see 1 more of TL’s picks before making their final decision.
4th TL pick: Shadow Demon. There he is, I was expecting him to see play; SD is very popular pick due to his abilities to be aggressive and defensive with his disruption, as well as his massive slow from his ultimate. He can be a very clutch hero. And he doesn't need and items to be effective.
5th AL pick: ALCHEMIST. Holy crap, was not expecting to see that. I’m not watching with Tobi’s commentary but I have to rewatch this pick to hear his reaction. Looks like AL.Academy are mixing it up with a hero seldom picked in competitive play. Whether this will work out for them or not remains to be seen.
5th TL pick: Ursa. Oh goodness, we have ourselves a game here folks. We saw Ursa earlier in the Defense, picked up by Turtle Masters, who then attempted and succeeded in a Roshan-first strategy against No Tidehunter. We’ll see what TL plan to do with it; all I can say is that I’m excited to watch this game.
4th TL pick: Shadow Demon. There he is, I was expecting him to see play; SD is very popular pick due to his abilities to be aggressive and defensive with his disruption, as well as his massive slow from his ultimate. He can be a very clutch hero. And he doesn't need and items to be effective.
5th AL pick: ALCHEMIST. Holy crap, was not expecting to see that. I’m not watching with Tobi’s commentary but I have to rewatch this pick to hear his reaction. Looks like AL.Academy are mixing it up with a hero seldom picked in competitive play. Whether this will work out for them or not remains to be seen.
5th TL pick: Ursa. Oh goodness, we have ourselves a game here folks. We saw Ursa earlier in the Defense, picked up by Turtle Masters, who then attempted and succeeded in a Roshan-first strategy against No Tidehunter. We’ll see what TL plan to do with it; all I can say is that I’m excited to watch this game.
End notes/ Reflection/Mistakes: + Show Spoiler +
I took my notes as the draft was happening and didn’t go back to adjust incorrect predictions, so now I’d like to look back on the draft and see where I went wrong.
I was first wrong with the Wisp prediction, although I wasn’t banking on it to be true. Not all teams like to run a wisp, but I am surprised to see a game where Wisp didn’t get picked or banned. This is definitely not your average game of DotA though.
Next, I definitely said that AL would be banning out strong 2s, and they definitely didn’t do that. I think what happened here is that I was allowing for Magnus to be played in the offlane, meaning TL would still need a strong 2. However, AL banned out jungle heroes and one 2 position. I’m not sure the exact reasons behind banning out the junglers, so if anyone reading wants to enlighten me, that would be great! Maybe it’s because TL already had their hard carry, and AL decided to ban out the most annoying/synergizing supports.
Lastly, I said TL might have a hard time in banning heroes, but in fact it was quite the opposite, and quite an oversight on my part to miss the great banning route that Team Liquid took. Looking at AL’s first 3 picks, they needed a hard carry. They had solid heroes, but no damage. And TC had already banned out the PL in the first stage, and picked Naix, meaning the carry pool was already slightly small. So, knowing AL would have to pick something, and seeing as how AL already had their great supports, TL just banned out every good carry hero they could, leaving AL with a small, obtuse pool to choose from. Great draft technique by TC, this is definitely why you should have respect for drafters. He forced AL into a corner and they had to take a gamble in Alchemist.
I was first wrong with the Wisp prediction, although I wasn’t banking on it to be true. Not all teams like to run a wisp, but I am surprised to see a game where Wisp didn’t get picked or banned. This is definitely not your average game of DotA though.
Next, I definitely said that AL would be banning out strong 2s, and they definitely didn’t do that. I think what happened here is that I was allowing for Magnus to be played in the offlane, meaning TL would still need a strong 2. However, AL banned out jungle heroes and one 2 position. I’m not sure the exact reasons behind banning out the junglers, so if anyone reading wants to enlighten me, that would be great! Maybe it’s because TL already had their hard carry, and AL decided to ban out the most annoying/synergizing supports.
Lastly, I said TL might have a hard time in banning heroes, but in fact it was quite the opposite, and quite an oversight on my part to miss the great banning route that Team Liquid took. Looking at AL’s first 3 picks, they needed a hard carry. They had solid heroes, but no damage. And TC had already banned out the PL in the first stage, and picked Naix, meaning the carry pool was already slightly small. So, knowing AL would have to pick something, and seeing as how AL already had their great supports, TL just banned out every good carry hero they could, leaving AL with a small, obtuse pool to choose from. Great draft technique by TC, this is definitely why you should have respect for drafters. He forced AL into a corner and they had to take a gamble in Alchemist.
