EPT
Just like the WCS finals, I will rank the participants of IPL5 according to how well they were expected to do beforehand. This time, I won't do the whole menagerie of 65 players, though.
As always, this is a purely objective statistical analysis. Nowhere did my own personal opinion factor in. The players' skill level before the tournament has been taken into account, as well as the bracket configuration and the seeding. Thus Snute's top 16 placement is not quite as impressive as it would have been had he not been seeded into the top 24, for example.
For each player, I have worked out the probability that they would finish where they did or better, and the probability that they would finish where they did or worse. If one of these numbers is lower than the other, it indicates that the player's performance was, respectively, better or worse than expected. The lower the number, the more extreme outcome.
Top 10 Underperformers
+ Show Spoiler [34-11] +
34. 
TubbyTheFat (92.11%)
33.
MaSsan (90.12%)
32. Perfect (81.49%)
31.
theognis (77.94%)
30. Daisuki (72.78%)
29. EifeR (71.14%)
28. CatZ (67.01%)
27. Shuttle (61.84%)
26. Shine (59.19%)
25. Snute (54.22%)
24. Bogus (50.00%)
23. Stephano (49.48%)
22. MC (49.46%)
21. Apocalypse (49.44%)
20. Seed (48.28%)
18. NaNiwa (47.91%)
18. Ryung (47.91%)
17. Heart (47.24%)
16. HwangSin (47.17%)
15. CranK (47.03%)
14. TriMaster (43.82%)
13. MMA (41.99%)
12. aLive (40.15%)
11. Golden (39.37%)
TubbyTheFat (92.11%)33.
MaSsan (90.12%)32.
Perfect (81.49%)31.
theognis (77.94%)30.
Daisuki (72.78%)29.
EifeR (71.14%)28.
CatZ (67.01%)27.
Shuttle (61.84%)26.
Shine (59.19%)25.
Snute (54.22%)24.
Bogus (50.00%)23.
Stephano (49.48%)22.
MC (49.46%)21.
Apocalypse (49.44%)20.
Seed (48.28%)18.
NaNiwa (47.91%)18.
Ryung (47.91%)17.
Heart (47.24%)16.
HwangSin (47.17%)15.
CranK (47.03%)14.
TriMaster (43.82%)13.
MMA (41.99%)12.
aLive (40.15%)11.
Golden (39.37%)10.
Life (39.14%)Life finished in the top 24 after what can only be described as an embarrassing elimination to Snute. He has been on a downward turn since his GSL win, but the system had enough faith in him left to expect him to do better than this three out of five times.
9.
GanZi (34.06%)It was probably Ganzi's loss to Goswser in the first round that caused his presence on this list, (and Goswser is #12 biggest overperformer, too). Ganzi survived the first round in the losers' bracket, but was summarily dispatched of at the hands of Stephano next round. I don't know if hydras were involved this time.
8.
San (31.53%)San came into this tournament with a seed following MarineKing's in-hindsight-maybe-not-perfect call to go to WCG instead. San managed to take a game off Hero before he lost 1-2 and was then eliminated by returning star Bomber. He does better about a third of the time.
7.
ByuN (29.36%)This weekend must have been a big disappointment for Byun and his fans. He placed in the top 56 only on account of getting a bye in the first round. He had the misfortune of facing DongRaeGu in the second round, lost to him, and then lost again to MMA (who is still not who he once was) in the losers' bracket.
6.
LucifroN (24.42%)Again, just as in the WCS finals, Lucifron fell at the hands of his brother, and again it could have been avoided if only Vortix had done the job in the round before. Alas, it seems the universe has not enough room for two Durans.
5.
Genius (23.68%)Genius was eliminated at the hands of Ryung (which is fine) and Sea. Before coming into the tournament, the data on Sea were poor indeed, and he was obviously by far the most underrated player in the pool, and Genius would have been favoured over him by something ridiculous like 98%. Thus, I'm willing to chalk up Genius' performance here as an anomaly. Still, I doubt he himself is happy.
4.
Luvsic (21.44%)Four out of five times, he does better than a top 56 finish. At least he got a game off Vibe before going out.
3.
TaeJa (16.86%)Like San, Taeja came to Las Vegas with a seed in hand, and as the strongest such by far, he was the biggest favourite to win the whole thing at about 12%. Alas, it was not to be, as he was hit by both Creator and Sniper in quick succession, quite possibly the roughest first two matches anyone played. He lost both 1-2.
2.
Nerchio (14.98%)Nerchio's first two excursions outside Europe has not lived up to expectations. This time even less so, as he dropped the first round to LeiYa, of all people, defeated Shuttle in the losers' bracket only to lose to Naniwa the next round. In the tournament of Zerg, he was the Zerg who was not, only to be topped by...
1.
sLivko (7.70%)This time it is Slivko who must accept the role as the biggest underperformer by leaps and bounds. In a whooping 14 simulations, Slivko only does this poorly once. It should be noted that, like Lucifron, Slivko was another victim of Vortix' bizarre loss in the first round, as they then faced in the losers' bracket.
Top 10 Overperformers
+ Show Spoiler [26-11] +
26. VortiX (59.38%)
25. Drewbie (55.76%)
24. Scarlett (52.73%)
23. Squirtle (50.05%)
22. Sculp (45.36%)
21. XiGua (44.61%)
20. Creator (44.18%)
19. HyuN (43.01%)
18. ToD (40.50%)
17. ViBE (38.46%)
16. Sleep (34.32%)
15. YoDa (34.29%)
14. HerO (34.28%)
13. DongRaeGu (32.05%)
12. goswser (31.32%)
11. Sniper (19.57%)
VortiX (59.38%)25.
Drewbie (55.76%)24.
Scarlett (52.73%)23.
Squirtle (50.05%)22.
Sculp (45.36%)21.
XiGua (44.61%)20.
Creator (44.18%)19.
HyuN (43.01%)18.
ToD (40.50%)17.
ViBE (38.46%)16.
Sleep (34.32%)15.
YoDa (34.29%)14.
HerO (34.28%)13.
DongRaeGu (32.05%)12.
goswser (31.32%)11.
Sniper (19.57%)10.
Symbol (16.34%)Symbol started off winning all his games, and by the time he reached the top 4 he was the only player left without a loss. Then, he began losing all his games instead. Still, a top 6 finish is an admirable result, one he achieves about one time in six.
9.
Polt (16.27%)Just slightly more surprising than Symbol's performance was Polt's, who finished top 3 as Terran, which few would have thought possible after, say, day 2. He can return to Korea as the defender of the Terran race. The Protoss have none.
8.
TheStC (15.19%)TheStC had an admirable winners' bracket run, knocking out eventual GSL winner Sniper, returning star Bomber and seeded Crank, before he ran into the Zerg train in the form of Leenock and DongRaeGu. His top 12 finish still earns him #8 biggest overperformer, considering his difficult bracket.
7.
Caliber (13.11%)Who, again? There are two "unknowns" on this list, and Caliber's upset of Vortix in the first round earns him one of the spots, even if he dropped out to Bomber and Tod immediately afterwards. In fact, Caliber indirectly upset both Lucifron and Slivko as well.
6.
Leenock (10.90%)It says something of his recent form that winning the whole tournament makes him only the sixth place on this list. As it were, only Violet looked like he was anywhere near Leenock's level last weekend.
4.
Bomber (10.15%)Bomber is decidedly back in form. After losing to TheStC in the winners' bracket, he turned the losers' bracket into mincemeat by eliminating Sculp, San, Snute, Creator (!) and DongRaeGu, the latter of which has been described as an amazing series. When the Zergs overran everything, he was there with Polt, defending the Terran honor. Then Polt backstabbed Bomber.
4.
LeiYa (10.15%)The second of the "who?" players, LeiYa alias Puck makes this list on account of defeating both Nerchio and Drewbie.
3.
BBoongBBoong (6.35%)For much of day 2, BBoongBBoong was the #1 dark horse of the IPL5, as he quietly made his way through the losers' bracket, taking out Golden, LeiYa, Seed, Crank and XiGua, before finally falling at the hands of Sleep.
2.
viOLet (6.23%)Only slightly more amazing than BBoongBBoong's run was that of Violet, the slightly less likely of the final two. Last weekend, only two players could phase him, and they were Leenock and Polt.
1.
HuK (4.49%)Ha! It might be too early to say if this signals Huk's return to form, but before the tournament started, not many would have expected him to be one of the last remaining foreigners. As it were, the only other foreigners who did as well as him (XiGua and Snute) were seeded. Huk had to fight his way to the top 16 on his own accord. Notable victims were Ryung and Yoda.
