EPTAs always, this is a purely objective statistical analysis based on the SC2Charts.net glicko rating system. Nowhere did my own personal opinion factor in.
For the purposes of this analysis, I have ignored the difference between third and fourth place, since I was unaware at the time I was making the predictions that there would be a third place match. Thus, eight players have finished in the top 32, 24 and 16 (the 0-2 and 1-2 group losers as well as the losers in the first elimination round, respectively). Four players finished in the top 8, two in the top 4, and one each in the top 2 and 1.
For each player, I have worked out the probability that they would finish where they did or better, and the probability that they would finish where they did or worse. If one of these numbers is lower than the other, it indicates that the player's performance was, respectively, better or worse than expected. The lower the number, the more extreme outcome.
Of the 32 who came to Shanghai, 16 have thus been labelled as 'underperformers' and 16 have been labelled as 'overperformers'. Note that this classification takes into account the player's expected result, considering all of the possible opponents as well as the draw. You will notice that some players who were eliminated on the first day have been classified as overperformers and vice versa.
Before I begin with the list, I also want to point out that this has the unfortunate effect of classifying several results that are perfectly fine as underperforming. When going through the list, please note also the likelihood that I have given for each player. If it's not so low, it's not so bad!
Underperformers
Listed in increasing order of extremeness
Listed in increasing order of extremeness
16.
Insur (74.55%)The American protoss player ended up more or less exactly where I expected, dropping out of his group in third place. However, he had a 21% chance of doing worse and a 25% chance of doing better, which makes him only a very slight underperformer.
15.
Levin (72.84%)When Insur escaped last place he condemned Levin there at the same time. The Brazilian protoss player was probably the most outclassed of all participants, and the only reason he is classified as an underperformer is because it is impossible not to be, when you finish last.
14.
TitaN (67.70%)This might surprise many. Titan won series against both Curious and CJ Hero, but unfortunately for him, the method only looks at your finishing rank, and not who you beat to get there. Beating two Koreans didn't help much when he decided to fall to Killer first thing the next day.
13.
LoWeLy (59.73%)Not sure what to say here. Lowely made his way to the round of 16, as expected, in second place, also as expected. There, he would expect to face Vortix, and lose. Instead, he faced Suppy, but failed to take advantage of the arguably easier matchup, and lost anyway. In 40% of the simulations, Lowely did better than this, and in 22%, he did worse.
12.
MaFia (53.75%)Who? Sorry. Mafia falls into the same category as Levin, players who were outmatched, did exactly as well as you could expect them to, but who are labelled as underperformers simply because that's how it must be, mathematically. Though Mafia's case is slightly more extreme simply because he's slightly better rated. In 46% of the cases, Mafia made at least third place in his group.
11.
mOOnGLaDe (52.09%)Moonglade is the third person on the arbitrary capitalisation death list, and he also fell out in last place. He has only slightly more reason to be disappointed than his mate up there. Yes, he is better, but he also had a much harder group, so that's why.
10.
Fenix (50.38%)Fenix was one of two players most often cited as an anomaly in the predictions. That's what happens when good players fall of the face of the earth, only to reappear months later with no, or very few, games played. Fenix was likely overrated, and for that he ends up on the underperforming list, though not as bad, considering he did beat Socke.
9.
Nerchio (49.25%)It's getting crowded on the foreign zerg stage, and this time, Nerchio had to make way for Scarlett. Like Moonglade, the sheer extremity of group H is the mitigating factor. It's just that in more than half the simulations, Nerchio escaped the group.
8.
LucifroN (38.84%)Lucifron fell victim to the greatest practical joke ever, played on him by his brother, and the universe itself. Due to the failure of Vortix to win a group he arguably should have won, Lucifron's first place didn't turn out to be all that he had hoped for (see Idra). Lucifron made the top 8 in more than 60% of the simulations, but not in the one that counts.
7.
Socke (36.76%)Socke is one of those players who are always there, but never THERE. This weekend he was there even less than usual. Last place in his group was a result that Socke could expect only a third of the time.
6.
Curious (35.58%)On the outset of the tournament, Curious was the second most promising non-protoss contender for the championship. He leaves as a top 16 finisher, bagging all his matches against Koreans (one) and only one of three against foreigners.
5.
CommItment (34.72%)Who again? Of the local contender I know nothing more than a number on a webpage, and this number would indicate that the Chinese zerg does better than last place in more than two thirds of the simulations. Oh, and he's on the random capitalisation death list.
4.
MajOr (29.07%)Over the years, Major has become a large net exporter of unfulfilled hype, but the fact remains that he's not really a bad player. Even in his relatively difficult group, he would expect to finish better than last place fairly often.
3.
HuK (27.32%)Huk is the second most disappointing last place finisher. Yes, he had a difficult group, but not earth-shattering, and he's not that bad himself, either. Huk takes at least third place almost three quarters of the time.
2.
RorO (23.64%)What happened here? Well, Idra did. Big overperformers are tied to big underperformers as surely as 1+1=2. His loss to Idra was heard around the world. His loss to Hero somewhat less so, but in total it adds up to a last place finish that Roro gets only a quarter of the time. Like Moonglade and Nerchio, the sheer power of group E is a mitigating factor.
1.
Stephano (22.93%)Stephano gets the dubious honour of being the biggest underperformer of the weekend. Yes, he had a hard group, and yes, he might not be the Stephano of old (even though he won a tournament only a week ago, which says a lot of what we think of the Stephano of old), but the numbers still indicate that Stephano was the third most likely winner. 77% of the time, he makes it out of this group. Controversial loss to Idra or not, this is enough to make Stephano the jumbo.
Overperformers
Listed in increasing order of awesomeness
Listed in increasing order of awesomeness
16.
State (65.58%)The American protoss was competing with Mafia for the title of being slightly less like a duck out of water in group D, where Babyknight and Rain were the overwhelming favourites. They proved it, too, by 2-0'ing the other two whenever the opportunity presented itself. State ends up an overperformer purely on account of defeating Mafia in the loser's match.
15.
Babyknight (64.33%)Much like Titan, Babyknight leaves Shanghai with a victory over a strong Korean in the bag. Unfortunately for him, he was highly favoured to win a spot in the top 16 anyway, and his win over Rain didn't help much when he promptly lost to TL Hero afterwards. He can perhaps agree with Idra that it would have been better for both if one of them hadn't swept his group.
14.
Grubby (64.23%)The Dutch protoss is still waiting for his breakout performance. This was not it, and while I can label him as an overperformer simply because he finishes last 34% of the time, and he advances from the group 35% of the time (yes, you read that right), truth is, Grubby did about as well as expected and nothing more, though I doubt he himself is happy with the elimination.
13.
ViBE (57.10%)Vibe was competing with Commitment for the chance of the dark horse role in group B, and for a while he was it. Unfortunately, he was unable to replicate his win over Vortix when it really mattered. Vibe does better than this about a quarter of the time, and worse about 43%.
12.
Scarlett (52.44%)Scarlett's record lately has made her the strongest player from the new world, and while Idra might have posted an equal finish this weekend, he has some catching up to do still. She beat Moonglade, as expected, lost to Creator, as expected, and beat Nerchio, also as expected (though this one was close). Truth be told, group H played out exactly according to plan.
11.
herO (51.59%)The most common complaint I received after posting my predictions was that CJ Hero was underrated. Perhaps, and perhaps not, though this tournament was certainly no indication that he was. The simulations indicate that he is eliminated on the first day more than 8 in 10 times, and that he finishes last slightly more often than third.
10.
VortiX (47.80%)Vortix narrowly escaped an embarrassing elimination the first day, and went on to defeat his brother before finally being slain by Creator. For most other people, top 8 would have been spectacular. For Vortix, it says something of his strength that this happens almost half the time.
9.
Rain (42.89%)Rain was actually the second biggest favourite to take the whole thing. He came agonizingly close, too, and his unexpected loss to Babyknight might have turned out to be a blessing instead, pitting him against Idra of all people, as the winner of group E. Rain made short work of both him and Killer before Creator decided to end the parade. It's a measure of Rain's recent results that a top 4 finish is only slightly less likely than not.
8.
HerO (38.05%)A top 8 placement might be just right for Hero in a tournament of this kind, but then he was placed in group E for Extermination, and all of a sudden things looked bleak. Still, Hero pulled through in second place and was rewarded with the absurdity of Babyknight winning his group. This allowed him to make the top 8, posting a result that could be expected less than two times in five, considering the draw, and that he was much more likely to run into Rain.
7.
Creator (30.74%)It's a testament to how big of a favourite the Prime protoss was that his second place finish was to be expected almost a third of the time. In fact, Creator was the biggest favourite for the title, and if he failed at the last hurdle, he can still return to Korea with a big smile on his face.
6.
Suppy (26.04%)Suppy's weekend started off on a good note when he defeated Vortix himself. It never seemed to stop for the American zerg, as he then took down Vibe, and the next day Lowely in a close-to-coinflip match. That put him in the top 8. As it turns out, it was to Suppy's great advantage that he advanced in first place, avoiding Lucifron in the round of 16 and netting him an exceptional result.
5.
Illusion (25.12%)Perhaps I am doing Illusion a disfavour by labelling him as the fifth biggest overperformer, because frankly, his group might not have been as difficult as it was on paper. Fenix was almost certainly overrated, and Illusion made the top 16 strictly based on defeating him handily, not only once but twice. Both his other matches were (to Illusion's capital misfortune) against the two eventual finalists, and he lost them both just as handily.
4.
Killer (17.44%)Next to Titan and CJ Hero, Killer was often cited as underrated when I first posted my predictions. Unlike Hero, Killer proved them right for sure. He edged out strong opponents Huk and Grubby for a second place finish in his group, and was rewarded with Titan, and not Curious, in the round of 16, a quirky result of which he duly took advantage.
3.
Sen (16.92%)Sen turned out to be the foreigner's best hope after plowing through Killer, Grubby, Curious and Hero, and as a fan myself it was exceptionally painful to see him thoroughly outclassed from then on. Still, it can't be denied that Sen posted a great result, and he has every reason to be satisfied.
2.
IdrA (16.14%)The second biggest overperformer is the Grack himself, who is Back on the Attack, and many other such rhymes, heck, there's this even:
Facing Stephano, Hero and Roro in his group, few had realistic hopes for Idra to eek out a top 16 finish, but he did it anyway, allegations against Stephano be damned. After winning that group he had the supreme misfortune to face Rain, and he even took a game off him too. The low probability assigned to this is a measure of the depths to which Idra's rating has sunken the last year or so. I, for one, hope it can recover.
1.
PartinG (11.14%)It's not a given that the winner is the biggest overperformer, but as it turns out, today he is. Parting won a group that to him must have been fairly easy (though Koreans were not at all immune to upsets), soul'd his way to the finals and there took down a strongly favoured opponent in a volatile matchup. Parting was "only" the fourth most likely winner, and for that he earns the title of biggest overperformer of Shanghai.
