EPT
Dongraegu, Seed, Mvp, and Squirtle are the first four players who get to choose the next opponents. They can select from the roster below.
Protoss: JYP, By.Sun, Hero
Terran: Taeja, Heart, MarineKing, Polt, Happy
Zerg: Symbol, Leenock, Curious, Life
Let’s keep in mind the standard rules for the Ro16 group nomination process:
• Players who get the first pick generally choose players who they believe they can beat with the minimum amount of effort. It can be a matchup advantage, overall skill advantage, historical advantage, or whoever is doing better at the moment. A combination of these factors is always at play.
• Players who get the second and third picks think about all the above, but they also think about the entire group composition. They may choose Player X who they can’t beat, but who ought to beat the others, and hope they don’t meet Player X in the winner’s/loser’s match.
• Players do not choose opponents who are doing extremely well at the moment unless they have strong faith that they can beat that opponent because of Point 1.
• Players choose opponents who are predictable and have playstyles that can be easily evaluated.
• Players choose opponents who have less stage experience and are affected by that fact.
• Some players will choose opponents that they just want to beat (personal pride, revenge for a teammate, etc.)
So the following picks will operate under these assumptions:
• No one will deliberately choose a teammate to join their group.
• No one will deliberately choose Taeja unless it sets up a PvT or they have no choice.
• No one will deliberately choose an opponent who is better in the hypothetical matchup the choice will create. Therefore no one will deliberately choose Curious or Life to play a ZvZ.
• All the above assumptions (with the exception of the first) are defunct if the player has a history of choosing opponents according to personal preference. In such cases priority should be given to said preferences.
Stage 1
The four Stage 1 members are deciding who they will face in their first series.
Dongraegu still lacks the complete confidence he had during his GSL championship run and he believes he has significant holes in his games (that are being fixed at the moment). He wants to create a group with three other players who play the same race so he can prepare against them. Considering the strength of the remaining zergs in the mirror matchup, it might be suicidal to choose Life/Curious/Symbol/Leenock. Leenock is the weakest at ZvZ but only because he is unstable; he has incredibly high peaks and incredibly low nadirs, and nobody knows which version will show up to a GSl match. Furthermore if he picks Curious/Life, that player will certainly not pick their zerg teammate and pick another zerg player who is less impressive in the mirror matchup.
DRG mentioned that he wanted to pick By.Rain but he will not want to jeopardize his chances at advancing out of sheer curiosity. Dongraegu is still figuring out the issues in his ZvP while By.Rain is very good. Furthermore he is good and an unknown variable, possibly the worst combination for a group selection process. It would also ruin his entire plan. By.Rain WILL NOT choose a protoss opponent in Stage 2 because he blows chunks in the PvP matchup. If DRG chose Hero, Hero WILL NOT choose a protoss opponent in Stage 2 due to his recent mediocre showings in PvP. DRG could pick JYP and hope JYP chooses By.Sun/Hero. That might have worked last season but now JYP is steadily showing better results in his PvT, so JYP would be comfortable picking a terran as well as a zerg.
DRG practiced ZvT exclusively for his Ro32 group and he will most likely choose a terran for the Ro16. That leaves MarineKing, Polt, Taeja, Heart, and Happy. I immediately strike out Taeja and Polt because there is no point in picking them when there are weaker opponents. Happy is historically good at TvZ and he did not play TvZ in his group, making him somewhat of a mystery. Both MarineKing and Heart looked like the weakest player in their groups, plus MarineKing is currently struggling in TvZ. DRG has a friendly rivalry with MKP as well and might want to capitalize on MKP’s busy schedule. However Heart has several things that make him a more desirable opponent. His playstyle is easily discernible (heavy pressure or fake heavy pressure into extreme greed), DRG has a good lifetime record against Heart, Heart is historically mediocre in the matchup, and DRG can take revenge for his teammate Sniper. He will probably choose Heart and hope Heart will pick the weaker terrans (Happy/ MarineKing) for compensation.
Dongraegu's pick: Heart
Seed is extremely solid in every matchup. He is easygoing and will not try to make statements with his picks. He will avoid the young go-getters and the Kespa representative in favor of someone who looked shaky in the Ro32. Seed mentioned in his Ro32 interview that he prefers a zerg or terran, but he prefers terran over zerg and does not want to play the lategame against zerg. If he had a terran he would take one that only plays macro games.
So supposing DRG picks Heart, Seed is left with four terrans: Polt, MarineKing, Taeja, and Happy. Compared to the zergs and their relative performance recently, he should choose a terran. He won’t pick his teammate Happy. Despite Taeja’s concerns over TvP he is playing at such a high level that it would be risky to pick him. That leaves Polt and MarineKing.
Polt lost to Seed in WCS but that was nearly a month ago. Polt’s performance in RO32 was much better than MarineKing’s and MKP would have dropped out if MC did not decide to play even worse. MarineKing is preoccupied with three premier tournaments and showing signs of weariness, while Polt only has to worry about the GSL and NASL (and he will gladly accept a group loss in the latter to advance to the round of 8). On the surface it seems to be a weird choice but MarineKing is the ideal opponent Seed wants to face: someone stressed out from many commitments and unable to prepare solely for this event.
Seed’s pick: MarineKing
Mvp has a history of being pragmatic with his choices and he has even more reason to continue doing it. His wrists are still hurting him and although his condition has been slowly improving, he will not want to press his luck in extremely long games. He has also expressed doubt that he can reach the finals without some semblance of luck. I believe Mvp’s pick will have to be someone he believe he can beat and someone who is not favored to get out of the group.
He is not too confident in his TvT at the moment, especially after being outplayed by Taeja, but he traditionally chooses terrans during group nomination. He will not pick Taeja for revenge. Polt played excellent TvT games against Gumiho as well as beating Mvp in WCS, and again Mvp is not the type to go after someone for personal spite. He will not pick his teammate Happy. MKP crawled out of the Ro16 with unimpressive games but his TvT has been stellar over the last few months. So the options are…ugly to say the least.
The zerg choices are not much better. Leenock is playing the best games of his career since MLG Providence. Curious is a lurking menace that just seems to beat players with any strategy he uses. Life is a newcomer but he is unpredictable and seemingly immune to the Code S jitters; he is also winning most of his ZvTs. Mvp might pick Life since Life stated that he wanted to face Mvp in the Ro16 but that would be an odd decision. Symbol has always prided himself on his ZvT and represents a major threat to get out of the Ro16. Furthermore all of them will be aware of Mvp’s tendency to transition into ravens.
Mvp is caught in a tough position. There are three protoss choices left and two of them would be bad choices. By.Sun and Hero have been solid in PvT ever since they established a name for themselves in the upper echelon. And then there’s the wild card in the form of JYP. He’s won most of his recent PvTs but his late-game play has not looked the sharpest compared to guys like Seed, Yonghwa, and Parting. We are still waiting to see if JYPvT can stand up against the best TvP players on a consistent basis. I think Mvp will hedge his bets that he can outsmart JYP and handle the pressure builds that knocked Supernova into Code A.
Mvp’s pick: JYP
Squirtle will not choose his teammates unless he feels like an asshole. He is also extremely confident about advancing into the round of 8 and he does not have any weak matchups, so he will not choose someone to avoid playing PvX. He sticks with the assumption list even when choosing Symbol last season didn’t sound like a logical choice; Symbol was mediocre in ZvP at that moment, and Squirtle hoped to capitalize on his lack of experience. It almost worked in the end.
With Heart theoretically gone he is left with four terrans who are very good in the TvP matchup. With Life and Curious theoretically gone he is left with two zergs, one who is pretty good in ZvP and the other is doing great in ZvP at the moment. Squirtle could pick Leenock if he is willing to bet that Leenock’s former ZvP woes will come back in the Round of 16, but that is a gamble. Symbol’s ZvT looked great in the Ro32 but his ZvP was only satisfactory and certainly not enough to beat Hero. Squirtle could pick Symbol to avenge his loss from last season, but would he really risk embarrassing himself a second time out of misguided pride?
I feel like there is an easier answer. Squirtle can choose a Protoss (PvP is Squirtle’s best matchup), and he can pick the remaining Kespa representative. Even though By.Sun has a very small sample size, there are two dominant trends throughout his SC2 history: great PvZ and PvT along with consistently mediocre PvP. Furthermore a victory over By.Sun will act as a statement to the Kespa movement: you have some work to do if you want to catch up to the current Code S players. It would allow Squirtle to be bold but safe at the same time. This is the best choice assuming Squirtle knows about By.Sun’s record.
Squirtle’s pick: By.Sun
Stage 2
Here is where the picks start to get complex. Everyone in Stage 2 will be thinking about their own chances as well as opportunities to screw over the Stage 1 members. The options are limited and only the stronger players are left over.
The players in Stage 2 must choose from the remaining players below.
Protoss: Hero
Terran: Polt, Taeja, Happy
Zerg: Symbol, Leenock, Life, Curious
By.Sun does not want to risk going out 0-2 to PvP. He will not pick Hero for that simple fact. His PvT record is relatively good but skewed by his good performance in the Up-and-Down group stage; By.Sun has mentioned that he really doesn’t want to play any more PvTs in the rest of the tournament. His PvZ record can be considered legitimate as he has played a number of different opponents and beaten them consistently.
So By.Sun is coming into the group with a near guaranteed loss. He must choose an opponent that he feels comfortable with and hope that Squirtle does not lose the winner’s match. He does not necessarily need an opponent who can beat Squirtle as much as he needs opponents he can beat individually. I am going to assume that By.Sun is not sufficiently familiar with the rest of the Korean scene to know which zergs are great at ZvZ.
He can choose from Life, Curious, Leenock, and Symbol. Curious sets up a teamkill while putting Squirtle in danger of losing a series; the same applies to Life. Symbol has been slumping hard in ZvP, so if our Kespa flag bearer gets lucky he can win a favorable matchup.
But with Leenock, By.Sun has one major advantage: he has played him in the past. He can use the WCS Korea series as a foundation for whatever strategy he wants to do, whether it is based on mindgames or countering Leenock’s tendencies. By.Sun can take comfort in the fact that he is not going into that particular matchup blind.
By.Sun’s pick: Leenock
JYP will feel the pressure from being chosen by Mvp. His opponent has lost a fair amount of TvPs lately, but he knows that he cannot count out Mvp as long as the terran possesses his strategic genius. JYP needs to make a move to construct a group favorable towards his strengths as he is an undeniable underdog out of all the qualified players. JYP might be able to take Polt and Taeja with his recently improved PvT, but their TvP track records are so good that it would be an unnecessary risk. He needs someone who can give Mvp trouble and die to JYP’s crisp timings, a player who has shown strength in ZvT and weakness in ZvP. Life, Symbol, and Leenock all fulfill this criteria.
Life complains a lot about ZvP but still possesses a 60% winrate in the matchup; he is also winning most of his ZvP matches. JYP already lost to him 0-2 and should not want to tempt fate twice. Leenock was weak in ZvP but now claims it is his best matchup and he is coming off a big win at MLG Summer Championship, which ought to boost his confidence. Meanwhile Symbol has stayed quiet ever since last season. He has not been as dominant as people anticipated but Symbol does have some nice victories post-Season 3. He got through his group stage but lost to Hero in convincing sets, which makes 7 straight ZvP losses in Korea.
JYP’s pick: Symbol
So yeah, the man they call MarineKing. Isn’t he supposed to be in a slump? His Ro32 games didn’t contradict this idea as he was somewhat lazy in his execution and decision-making. In all honesty he should not even be here. But he is here and he wants to win the GSL. And the OSL. And WCG Korea.
Partitioning his attention will be vital to his decision here. Currently MarineKing’s TvZ is his worst matchup. Don’t expect him to look towards the four remaining zergs as candidates. But MKP’s TvT has been almost unstoppable over the last few months. Unfortunately Taeja’s TvT has looked similarly impregnable and Polt has a history of trading series with MKP.
The “correct” choice here is Happy. Happy has played admirably well in the Up-and-Down matches and the Ro32, but he is untested when it comes to TvT. If MarineKing wants to win the Triple Crown he must choose an opponent he can reasonably beat without too much preparation (which frees up training time for OSL and WCG). This also sets up some problems for Seed: he must prepare for the mindgames that inevitably come from fighting a teammate, therefore spending less time focusing on dissecting MKP’s gameplay.
MarineKing’s pick: Happy
Heart is going into the Ro16 without much assurance in his skill. He thought that he squeaked past Naniwa and Sniper due to luck, which is exactly why DRG ought to pick him first.
Heart has proven to be shaky in TvZ and TvT, and he has mentioned that he would prefer to face protosses in the Ro16. This is reflected by his Korean and international records. In my theoretical situation there is only one protoss left and he’s pretty damn good at PvT. However Heart has no real options. He needs to choose between the shark (four zergs who are all showing amazing form in ZvT at the moment), the tiger (two terrans with great TvT and one with so-so TvT) and the bull (Hero).
He could decide that Happy would be the best choice as he is the weakest player left. This is smart thinking…on a surface level. Heart cannot afford to give anyone free wins and Happy’s TvZ has looked plain awful recently. And Heart does not know who Happy will pick, except it won’t be another Protoss. By taking Hero, Heart can put pressure on Dongraegu and take advantage of DRG’s struggles in ZvP. At least a bull can be deceived by a red handkerchief and Heart will hope he can trick Hero with his risky approach to the matchup.
Heart’s pick: Hero
Stage 3
Terran: Polt, Taeja
Zerg: Curious, Life
You’re down to the final four and you have to make a hard choice. No one has picked these players because of pure uncertainty. They are either solid enough to be a threat in all matchups, rapidly rising in the hierarchy of Korean players, or doing very well outside of the GSL. There are no more pushovers left and you have to start thinking outside of the 1v1 comparisons. You could or could not beat this guy in your first series, but how does he affect the group? How does he stack up against the other two players? Instead of picking a player because you can beat them, you can pick a player because he can beat everyone else. Hedge your bets that you can throw a wrench into the workings of your group and take advantage of it.
Dongraegu is looking like he is the old terror of legend, so Hero’s decision might decide the outcome of the group. He won’t choose Taeja because he is a nice guy but he needs someone who can snuff out DRG. Curious would be a good bet except his ZvP has been a bit too good lately. Hero can deal with Polt on an even footing but after seeing Group H, Hero should not put too much faith in Polt’s ability to deal with DRG.
That leaves the problem child of the GSL. Life won’t succumb to those danged nerves, he won’t stick to old comfortable builds, and he was the only player to sweep his group. Hero beat him cleanly back in IPL Tournament of Champions but Life has won the last two encounters and sorry to say…it was pretty free both times. However you can’t play Entombed Valley twice and Hero is one of the most flexible PvZ players in the world. More importantly, Life has possibly the best ZvZ in the world and his ZvT has been nothing short of incredible.
The reward ultimately outweighs the risk. If Hero can beat Life, he will face DRG/Heart (probably DRG) with a 1-0 cushion. DRG is currently uncomfortable in ZvP and Heart is the obvious underdog despite his comfort in TvP. If he loses to DRG, he faces Life/Heart in an elimination match where Hero has superior experience. If Hero loses to Life, Life faces DRG/Heart with strong chances to beat either of them and immediately advance (so Hero does not need to face him twice). Then Hero faces DRG/Heart and as mentioned before, he has some advantage in both matches. The most unlikely event is if Heart beats DRG and Hero loses to Life, but that is a sticky hypothetical he must risk.
Hero’s pick: Life
Happy has three choices. Does he want to risk a 0-1 against Curious, a 0-1 against Polt, or a 0-1 against Taeja? All three players can beat Seed and MarineKing but that is a given at this point in the group selection. Which player gives Happy the best chance of advancing?
Despite beating DRG and Sniper in IPL Team Arena, he has lost 8 out of his last 11 TvZ games to lesser players like Sirius and Monster. It would be foolish for Happy to choose Curious in an attempt to win his first series (although Curious has a great record against both Seed and MarineKing). Taeja is perhaps the hottest player on the planet but Happy would probably lose against him and then face MarineKing/Seed in an elimination match.
Polt has traded series with MarineKing in the past and while he lost to Seed in WCS Korea, he knows how to win TvP games. As the weakest player left he gives Happy the best chance at advancing.
Happy’s pick: Polt
Here is the “rock and a hard place” decision. Symbol has very good ZvZ but Curious has one of the best ZvZ records in Korea. On the other hand, Symbol could deal with Taeja and attempt to exploit his extremely greedy openings in an reenactment of his first series vs MarineKing. However Taeja is very experienced to hold off all-ins and pressure builds, plus he mixes things up frequently in all his series.
Symbol’s pick: Curious
Poor Leenock. His ZvT has been amazing ever since he rediscovered his mojo, but it will be sorely tested here. Nobody else wanted to face the one-man wrecking crew so you’ll have to do it.
Leenock’s pick: Taeja
Group A:
Dongraegu
Heart
Hero
Life
Group B:
Squirtle
By.Sun
Leenock
Taeja
Group C:
Mvp
JYP
Symbol
Curious
Group D:
Seed
MarineKing
Happy
Polt
Note: This is not an actual attempt to figure out the Ro16 groups. It is a theoretical exercise made to consider how the selection process works.
If you think anything I said was wrong or misinformed, leave a comment below!
